Gaping Holes In The Government’s Retail Sales Report For April

“We are not counting on the consumer to spend more,” Chief Executive Terry Lundgren said Wednesday. With saving rates high, wages growing and employment data steady, Macy’s executives were at a loss to explain why consumers weren’t spending in its stores. “We’re, frankly, scratching our heads,” said Chief Financial Officer Karen Hoguet.

The facts to do not fit the assertions above.  The savings rate in this country is not “high” and wages are not growing.  The Government may be reporting a high savings rate and growing wages, but that’s merely a product of statistical fiction.   Note in the graph to the Untitledright (click to enlarge) that rate growth in outstanding credit card/revolving credit is accelerating.  This stands in direct refutation of the “high savings rate” narrative served up by the propagandists.

If you are not getting paid any interest on your bank balance, you will not spend it.  If you don’t have money in the bank BUT it’s easy to get credit, you will borrow to spend.  The reports coming from retailers suggest that borrowed money is not being spent on discretionary purchases.  This can only mean that the middle class is now buying groceries and gasoline using credit card debt.

Does anyone believe the April retail sales report?  Really?  I told my business partner yesterday that I was expecting a “blow-out” rigged retail sales report for April. Why? Because I was willing to think like a criminal and imagine what I would do, given the plethora of horrific big chain Q1 financial reports and the avalanche of retailers filing for bankruptcy or liquidation during Q1.

Macy’s and Kohl’s reported unexpectedly poor Q1 numbers, missing Wall Street’s expectations badly. CNBC blames the numbers on “unseasonably cool months in March and April.” It’s a convenient excuse that does fit the facts. Nothwithstanding this, the Government statisticians seemed to have not found any issues with weather affecting sales. The discrepancy between the level business activity reported by the country’s largest corporations and the Government grows wider with each passing month.

According to the Government statisticians, retail sales popped up 1.3% over March. Somehow Obama’s worker bees seemed to find retail sales in places not reported by any actual retailer. The big drivers were gasoline, auto sales and apparel. While its true that gasoline sales probably increased, this was a function of price of gasoline rising appreciably – i.e. inflation. It’s certainly not reflective of an uptick in economic activity. Auto sales increased in April vs. March, but Wards reported today that auto industry is taking a big chunk of production down this month.  Apparel? Seriously? After the long line of retailers that reported horrible first quarter results and significantly revised the outlook

Macy’s reported comparable sales down 6.1%, Kohl’s comp stores down 3.9% and traffic down 5%, Nordstrom’s same store sales down 1.7%. These numbers are complete disaster from a retailers perspective and they reflect the fact that the middle class is quickly running of room to borrow money on credit cards and home equity loans. This is going to translate into an cliff-dive in economic activity that I believe is hitting now.

Nondiscretionary spending on health, insurance, education and housing has taken an extra 4% out of personal-consumption expenditures in 2015 compared with 2000, according to Craig Johnson, president of consulting firm Customer Growth Partners. That has reduced the discretionary spending available for traditional retailers by $500 billion–more than the combined annual U.S. sales of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. LINK

In perusing the details in the retail sales report, which is prepared by the Census Bureau – meaning that the quality of reporting is highly suspect – it would appear that sales of autos and auto parts drove the number.  The Fed and the Government have targeted auto sales and housing with printed money and the highly permissive availability of credit in order to manufacture the appearance of economic growth.   At some point there will be a tipping point at which the default rate soars on all this new auto, credit card and mortgage debt created over the past five years.  I believe the system has crossed that Rubicon and it will become quite evident over the next several months.

I would also argue that the precious metals market has “sniffed out” this reality, which is why the Fed/banks are finding it impossible to push the price of gold/silver any lower than the levels we have seen this week.   Hang on, if you are long the precious metals sector it is going to be a fun ride.  The Mining Stock Journal can help you pick out the junior mining stocks that have the potential to create life-style changing wealth.  At the very least these stocks will protect from the malice of disastrous Fed and Government policies.  You can access the MSJ using this link:  Mining Stock Journal.   New subscribers will receive the latest issue released last night plus the back-issues dating back to the March 4 debut.

5 thoughts on “Gaping Holes In The Government’s Retail Sales Report For April

  1. Hello World,
    Yes, the Apr. retail sales report looked mighty fine considering recent retailer earnings and guidance. Walmart reports 5/19. That’s a pretty good proxy for US + global “consumer” health overall. That should be telling; both earnings and guidance/outlook.

    Banks are not paying interest on accounts (ZIRP) and there’s a threat of NIRP. Real wages are down – and have been down – for many years now. Jobs have been created, but with caveats. Most jobs created under the Obamination that causes desolation are low wage and the total number created over the past 7.5 years is less than needed for new entrants + those who lost their jobs in ’08-’09. This is supported by the “not in labor force” stat, which is huge. SNAP/Foodstamps recipients also huge. Things are fine for Wall St., but not so much for Main St. The Great Recession never really ended, IMHO.

    Boomers are saving as close to retirement and limited income per reasons stated above. I’m highly skeptical of gov’t stats. Have been for some time, but esp. this year with elections coming up in Nov. TPTB trying to put lipstick on a pig. While I don’t know precisely when the SHTF with the economy and stock mkts., it’s a certainty. Either before Nov. 8th, or just after, but it’s coming.


    1. WMT beats in today’s announcement on 1% comp. store sales and positive outlook. Consumer not dead yet, but it seems that are trading down from Nordies and Macy’s to Walmart. One bright spot in retail this earnings season.

  2. Logic dictates that the SHTF real soon, but we are living in a bizarro world. Maybe really “this time it is different”. Different not because of a robust economy but because the Fed and the Govt have stooped to levels unheard of or unthinkable before.

  3. Agreed. Bizarro world economics. NIRP (just another tax). Seriously? And how will another tax miraculously result in “growth”, when ZIRP+QE were both abject failures? So far that’s not working out in either Europe of Japan.

    In my previous post I failed to mention ObamaCare/ACA as yet another drag on poor and middle class America. TPTB is really out of options; not to mention clueless. These quotes are apropos and timeless… Ladies and gentlemen: Please return to your seats the “Fasten Seatbelts” sign has been illuminated… 🙂

    “I will sign a universal health care bill into law by the end of my first term as president that will cover every American and cut the cost of a typical family’s premium by up to $2,500 a year.” – Sources: BHO: Speech, “A Politics of Conscience,” June 23, 2007


    “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.'” – Sir John Templeton

    “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’ ”- Ronald Reagan – 40th president of US (1911 – 2004)

    “How do you know when a politician is lying? His lips are moving.” – Favorite Old Joke

    1. Haha, the last sentence is so true! I am apolitical becuse of that reason. Elections are all about realization of dreams, fulfiling aspirations – of the politicians, not the voters.

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