Government Jobs Data: Defining Deviance Downward

Your analysis on the June jobs report was posted in the comments section on the WSJ online.  After reading them, I did some more research based on concepts you introduced [to me].  I learned more in the last 90 minutes about the BLS surveys than from the past 12 months of WSJ articles on the topic.  Thanks.  – from “Jim” in his Linked-In connection request

640,000 thousand people leave the workforce but the unemployment rate drops to 5.3%. Only here in this country now can sell that big bag of shit.  20 years ago anyone would have been embarrassed to print that report or laughed out of the meeting room.  – Dave’s NY friend

NY Friend:  Of all the lies you ever told in your days of a junk bond trader, you never told a lie that blatant.  You used to say a good lie contained an element of truth.

Me:  Dude, I only told lies I knew I could get away with.

NY Friend:  We’re back to the 1977 level of employment when one income could support a household.

Here’s the analysis of the jobs report today from my good friend and colleague, John Titus of Best Evidence:

The labor force is defined as people working or looking for work. It’s a solid approximation of the real jobs number, and it’s on the high side because obviously not everyone looking for work is actually working. But if you accept the sunnyside fudge and equate looking for work with actual work, you’ve got a very accurate picture of jobs.

Since Obama took office in January 2009, the U.S. labor force has added 2.827 million people. Obama’s claim of adding 11 million jobs is just a straightjacket-and-electrodes-crazy lie no matter how you cut it.
What is even worse is that those additions to the labor force came from the total pool of people added to the working age population—a pool that has grown by 15.924 million people.
So under this so-called jobs president, an astounding 82.25% of people enter their working age years without working and without looking for work. Think about that number for a second. More than four out of five people who aren’t working or looking for work is grim, worse-than-Great-Depression-ugly, no matter how small the sample is. But the fucking “sample” here is 100% of everyone added to the entire working age population for almost the last 7 years.
Anyone who thinks that what’s happening in Greece can’t or won’t happen here is at best dreaming and more likely unhinged. Based on the real jobs data, it’s guaranteed to happen here.
The the definition of “defining deviance downward.”  The phrase was first used by Senator Danial Patrick Moynihan in the early 1990’s after Clinton had assumed office to describe the willingness of our society to tolerate the rising criminality and fraud in the political and economic system.
Our system is well past the breaking point of recoverability.  I asserted in 2003 that:  “the elitists running our system will hold up the system with printed money and debt certificates for as long as it takes to sweep every last crumb of middle class wealth off the table and into their own pockets.”
We are witnessing the end-game phase of this operation.  For the record, “middle class” is defined as anyone who does not have enough cash laying around to buy their own Congressman, Senator or the Oval Office.  This means anyone reading this who has a few million in the stock market, bonds and a house or two will soon be stripped of that unless they convert that “wealth” into real money.

4 thoughts on “Government Jobs Data: Defining Deviance Downward

  1. from 4/30/07 to 4/30/15:

    US population grew 19 mil.
    2.5 mil jobs added
    2.4 mil of those part time
    migration from mfg and construction jobs to service jobs

    any questions?

  2. Abbott and Costello explain unemployment
    Thanks to U Chicago’s Allen Sanderson for sending this along:
    posted on Greg Mackiniw’s blog

    COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

    ABBOTT: Good “subject”. Terrible “times”. It’s about 9%.

    COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

    ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.

    COSTELLO: You just said 9%.

    ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed.

    COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work.

    ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.

    COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed.

    ABBOTT: No, that’s 9%…

    COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%?

    ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.

    COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

    ABBOTT: No, you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

    COSTELLO: But … they are out of work!

    ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.

    COSTELLO: What point?

    ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work, can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

    COSTELLO: To who?

    ABBOTT: The unemployed.

    COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.

    ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work…Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

    COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment?

    ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

    COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

    ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how you get to 9%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don’t want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?

    COSTELLO: That would be frightening.

    ABBOTT: Absolutely.

    COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means they’re two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

    ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

    COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

    ABBOTT: Correct.

    COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

    ABBOTT: Bingo.

    COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.

    ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an economist.

    COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!

    ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a politician.

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