Homebuilder Reports

HousingBubblePicBelow are the links to my homebuilder stock reports.  After you go through the Paypal process you will be automatically directed to a page that will have link on it which will allow you to download the report in pdf format. Please make sure to save the report on your computer.  
If you have any problems, please contact me at dkranzler62@gmail.com so I can fix the problem.

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                                                                  These stock reports:

                         1)  provide thorough fundamental analysis of each company;
                        2)  contain unique analysis and insight, explaining in detail
                              why each company is extremely overvalued;
                        3)  have a section which covers the use of options and capital and
                              position management strategies.

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November 13, 2015 – This Report Is $30

(This was first published on 12/4/2014 – It is updated with current financials and a revised outlook for the stock)
The amount of debt/unit sold is over 4x higher than in 2005. This high financial leverage will crush this Company’s earnings and cash flow as the housing market deteriorates. I believe it will eventually go bankrupt if the Fed does not bailout the system with massive money printing.
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October 20, 2015  –  This Report is $30

This homebuilder reported a small decline in the number of housing units sold for the first half of 2015 vs. the first half of 2014. This suggests underlying weakness in the Companies operating model. In addition, the Companies financials are loaded with red flags indicating that management is using misleading accounting applications to boost its reported earnings per share.

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In 2005, at the peak home deliveries, this company had $262k of debt per home delivered. Right now, it has $630k of debt per home delivered. Insiders have been dumping the stock at a rate of 35:1.

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August 20, 2014

If you look at the first nine months of this Company’s Fiscal year – October 2013 – June 2014 – the 10-Q shows that the Company burned $575 million of cash in its operating activities

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July 30, 2014 – The Report Is $25

If we apply this Company’s peak bubble p/e to its current annualized net income, the stock would be valued at $6.33.  But this stock will ultimately
hit the wall if you are patient.

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7 thoughts on “Homebuilder Reports

  1. Do you offer all your reports on the attractive shorts in the homebuilders as a package – Do any of the reports suggest good homebuilder “pair trades”?

    Thank you

    1. Honestly, the entire sector is a short. Email me at InvestmentResearchDynamics@gmail.com if you want to chat about possible capital structure “pair” trades, but I would not get long ANY home builders under ANY circumstances. Check out my latest report. It’s unique in that I dug up some seriously misleading use of accounting. I am not aware of any analyst who delves into “forensic” accounting analysis like I have.

  2. Dave:

    I’ve been a GATA member for getting on 10 years or so and have read several of you articles and listen to you and Rory chat it up.

    My question is:

    Do you feel your forecast relative to the Home Builders’ stock will still come to fruition in your speculated time frame if the FED does an industry wide Bailout or, like virtually everything else, would that move just kick the Home Builder short opportunity further on down the road?

    Thanks,
    Dean

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