Is Amazon Done? “Regression To The Mean” Could Cut AMZN In Half

Fantastic write-up! I was a former financial statement auditor for a big accounting firm in the Silicon Valley during the tech bubble. I audited many of the high fliers that crashed and burned, took companies public & was at the printers the day the bubble really burst.  So, when I say Amazon’s financials are the most misleading and misunderstood I’ve ever seen and their stock will crash mightily, we sound like we’re on the same page.  – Former tech company CPA who follows my work

Click here to access this report:  AMAZON dot Con

A reader of my report sent me the following Fibonacci analysis of AMZN’s stock, which has clearly gone parabolic on bubble helium:

AMZN_Fib1 (Click to enlarge)

AMZN’s move in price is in no possible way supported by the underlying business and financial fundamentals. Contrary to Wall Street pimp reports and manipulated AMZN earnings presentations, AMZN is highly cash flow negative and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.

When the rug is finally pulled out from under Amazon, it will be revealed for what it really is:   an online version of a big box retailer, only this “online” version has the worst operating margins in the industry and burns cash like a Fukushima nuclear inferno.

My report shows in fine detail how AMZN promotes its financial performance in a highly misleading way – bordering on fraudulent.  I explain why AMZN’s business model burns cash and continues to lose money even on a GAAP-manipulated net income/loss basis.  I also offer capital management advice and put/call strategies, with specific examples.

You can access this report here:   AMAZON dot CON

After reading your commentary about Amazon on 7/24 I immediately bought two Jan 16 put options and also purchased your report. To say your report was an eye opener is an understatement. You clearly show that Amazon’s financial structure is a house of cards. Later on 7/30 I added a third put option. As of Friday 8/7 I am up 29% on the position. All I can say is thank you for all that you do!  – “Bill” in North Carolina

4 thoughts on “Is Amazon Done? “Regression To The Mean” Could Cut AMZN In Half

  1. When the tide turns and fundamentals are popular again looking into AMZN:s numbers will bee like looking down a “big black anus mixtured with fraud and ponzi schemes”

    No one dare sto look in case the “anus” have a diarea attack.

    Dave your work is fantastic and I´m preparing a bonus for you when everything falls in to place.

    I urge everyone who reads Daves splendid work to do this (share youre profits)

    If he is right and you profit from his work share your profits – I will !

  2. Sorry to be off topic Dave but tried to post this in response to Zen on previous thread but captcha wouldn’t post .1times 9 does equal 9? maybe i’m as dumb as i look!

    Zen,
    I see how frustrating this is for a lot of people, but actually I see the supply across all commodities will be the undoing. The controllers are walking a fine line hoping heavily leveraged producers will continue supply in the knowledge they can never pay down debt. All I know is if you look at similar history producers simply start to walk away. So unless the politicians are prepared to sit in end loaders and tractors sooner or later this thing morphs into 1935.

    China ironically is the entity I blame most. The corrupt nature of politics and business in the west have dragged us all into a collectivist nightmare. I cant blame the chinese as the whole thing should have collapsed under Mao.,but the the lizard kings in the west saw that big pile of free labour and strip mined all production in western nations with perhaps the exception of Germany.

    The reality is the corporate move and was started in the 70’s with paying out of western private sector unions and the destruction of solvent small producers by leveraged up get big or get out types. Who can forget the 70’s when asset stripping was the “Get rich quick” model du jour. Thats when the productive companies started to really leverage up to protect the selves from the “infinite credit” pay next century maggots. Well now the only ones left in the pool are those same maggots all with the exact same business model I laugh soon you’ll see, it will by like apes throwing their own excrement at each other.

  3. zero interest rates are for the pigmen only. Retail debtors get the the bone. If we had zirp on the retail side this would a blow hyperinflation in a nano second.

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