The mainstream media version of Dan Norcini was out today with yet another vacuous warning about gold. Recall that Mark Hulbert was the mainstream media idiot who ranted and raved as recently as July that gold was only worth $800: Gold Might Be Up This Year, But It’s Worth Only $800.
Where does Marketwatch find these guys? Seriously. Now that his $800 call has proved to be heinously wrong, he’s out warning that gold will be volatile: Irrational Exuberance: Expect Gold To Be Massively Volatile
Thanks for the reminder, Mark, that markets tend to go and down because buyers and sellers have differing opinions and exert those opinions with variability in the degree of their relative efforts.
Hulbert’s witches brew “sentiment” indicator is telling him that gold is going lower. I’m guessing it’s the same magic potion that whispered sweet nothings in his ear about $800 gold…
Gold has been forced lower by western Central Banks and Governments dumping cargo-load upon cargo-load of paper gold onto the market – and an occasional multi-hundred tonne pallet of Central Bank custodial gold onto the LBMA for added effect. Like all cartel-manipulated activity, the party had to come to an end eventually.
The problem with snake-oil covered “econometric models” and other such statistical hocus-pocus is that the forumulas are based on the assumption that the input-data embody a certain degree of “normalcy.” However the data-pool for the price-behavior of gold over the past five years has been anything but “normal.”
Au contraire, Mark, in case you have not noticed – which you probably have not given that your focus is centered on the “irrational exuberance” of “sentiment” sampling – every time they try to smash gold during exceptionally low volume time periods, gold bounces back. Silver is outperforming gold on smash days and underperforming gold on rally days. At some point silver will begin to outperform gold on rally days and that’s when it will be “lights out” for anyone short the precious metals
As an aside, my latest issue of the Short Seller’s Journal will be sent to subscribers this Sunday. I’ve picked out construction industry stock that has at least $100 to fall before this bear market is over and I also have “quick hit” scalp idea that will pay off next week if this bear market dead-cat bounce is over.