Northern Dynasty Could Go To Zero

Many of my subscribers asked my view on Northern Dynasty (NAK), developer of the Pebble copper-gold-moly-silver deposit in the Bristol Bay are of southwest Alaska.  I figured newsletters were pumping it.  I owned NAK for brief period in 2004 before I decided I didn’t like the way it “smelled.”  Thirteen years later it smells just as bad.

I found out the Stansberry/Casey marketing juggernaut team was pimping NAK, as well as Martin Katusa and Rick Rule.  Upon a closer look, I could not find one redeeming reason to own NAK.  If I had looked at it when it was trading at $3.40 at the end of January, I would have put it in my Short Seller’s Journal (NAK is now at $1.61 and likely headed toward zero).  I also knew Kerisdale Capital recently slammed NAK, but after the firm’s highly misleading and incorrect hatchet-job on First Majestic, I don’t trust Kerisdale.

Over the years, I have learned the hard way that “holy grail” projects in geographically difficult areas enveloped with an extreme degree of political risk have a high probability of ending with a bad result for my investment. NAK is one of these situations that I am recommending that subscribers avoid.  – Excerpt from the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal

In this week’s issue of the Mining Stock Journal, I present several compelling reasons why NAK is likely nonviable.  You can read my analysis plus receive all of the back-issues using this link:  Mining Stock Journal

Your review of NAK is quite timely, given a class action lawsuit, a Seeking Alpha analysis, and the fact it was highly promoted at the 2015 Silver Summit in SF which I witnessed personally. The NAK website has Stansbury and others refuting the Seeking Alpha article. On Tuesday of this week, I got the bright idea to buy a few shares after it was beat up 50%, but now realize it may be a falling knife. I got the information on this company two years ahead of time, but never bought until Tuesday just because I thought it must have value as Casey, Rule and others put so much faith in the idea, and the fact Trump has been favorable to mining permits in Alaska. Keep up the magnificent work!  –  from subscriber “James”

Gold Continues To Defy Fed’s Attempt To Control The Price

Bloomberg News admitted that it is aware of the Fed’s “hidden” mandate to control the price of gold when it published an article last Sunday titled, “Yellen Can’t Halt Trump Gold Rally That Funds Bet Against” – Bloomberg/Yellen/Gold.

That title, combined with the content of the article, implied that the journalists and editors at Bloomberg are aware that the Fed actively manipulates the price of gold.  It’s hard to know if this admission was put forth intentionally or unwittingly. But the headline outright acknowledges that the Fed’s goal with respect to the price of gold is to prevent it from moving higher. The Fed’s current tool for this purpose is the “good cop/bad cop” routine played out on a daily basis between the Fed Governors who purport the need for more interest rate hikes and the Fed Heads who advocate waiting until the economy improves.

Lost in the smoke of Orwellian propaganda is the absurd notion that the two “rate hikes” were a mere quarter of a percentage point in magnitude.  This can hardly be described as “raising interest rates.”  It certainly is not even remotely close to the concept of “interest rate normalization,” whatever that is supposed to mean.   In mid-2007, about a year before the financial system nearly collapsed, the Fed Funds rate was 5.25%.   A little more than a year later it had been dropped to near zero.

If the financial analyst “Einsteins” define “rate normalization” as the 5.25% level in 2007, it will take about about 20 years using the speed of rate hikes by the Fed over the last two years.   On the other hand, going back to 1954, which is as far back as the Fed’s database takes us for the Fed funds rate, the median level for the Fed Funds rate is somewhere around 7%.   Is THAT level how one would define “normalized rates?”  You can do the math on how long it would take thereby to achieve “normalized interest rates” if 7% is the goal.

Since mid-December 2016, when gold appears to have bottomed out from the manipulated price “correction” that began in August, gold has been trading in defiance of the Fed’s attempts at price control.  Yesterday’s (Wednesday, Feb 22nd) trading action is point in case.  Gold was slammed for about $9 right after the paper trading market on the Comex floored commenced.  This is standard operating procedure.  But about 5 1/2 hours later, when the Fed released the minutes from its last meeting, gold spiked up and reclaimed the full $9 price take-down.    Today gold has soared another $16.

At the Shadow of Truth, we suspect both Yellen and the editorial staff at Bloomberg News are mumbling to themselves.  In today’s episode, we discuss the trading action in gold and the potential more interest rate hikes this year:

Toll Brothers Stock Jumps On Declining Revenues And Earnings

Toll Brothers reported its Fiscal Q1 earnings this morning.  Year over for the quarter: Revenues declined nearly 1%, operating income plunged 46.8%, net income dropped 4.1%.   Net income was boosted by the reliable accounting management technique of reducing the estimated GAAP “effective” tax rate, which enables any management to goal-seek a specific net income number.  In this case the goal is to “beat” the Street.  Margins were down across the board.

Oh ya, TOL pulled another stunt that homebuilders use to pump up GAAP net income:  it increased the amount of interest it capitalized by $6 million dollars. This has the effect of boosting operating income by $6 million compared to the same quarter last year because it reduces the amount of GAAP interest expense by the amount that was capitalized. It did this despite a drop in sales.   Its net income would have missed the Street by a suburban mile if it had just maintained the same rate of interest expense capitalized.

For this, the stock jumped up 6% this morning at the open.

The Company blamed the drop in operating income and margins on inventory write-downs.  But these have been occurring every quarter recently and will of course continue going forward.  That write-down only explains $4 million of the $44 million plunge in operating income.

There’s so much more going in TOL’s numbers which point to the continued economic deterioration in its business model.  I will be reviewing this further in this week’s issue of the Short Seller’s Journal, including which put options TOL I bought this morning.

Too many layoffs and store closure news to mention but I’ve realized that there are a lot of school-district (including teachers) layoffs and colleges, or even hospitals staff layoffs. CSX just posted 1000 management level position cuts – link.  By the way, thanks for the Short Seller’s journal, very informative. – note yesterday from a subscriber

Bloomberg News Admits The Fed Manipulates Gold

“Yellen Can’t Halt Trump Gold Rally That Funds Bet Against” – That was the headline in a Bloomberg news report that was released on Sunday afternoon. There’s a lot going on in that headline – none of it accurate except for the fact that gold is moving higher despite the efforts of western Central Banks to cap the price.

The basic premise of the report is that gold is moving higher in defiance of the Fed’s apparent move to raise interest rates. Reading through the report reveals even more misleading and completely false information than is conveyed by the headline. Here’s a link if you want to read the article:  Bloomberg/Yellen/Gold.

The headline itself and the article content are both highly problematic, riddled with disinformation and completely inaccurate assertions.  Anyone actually who might have read the article and trusted the content has been taken down to “ground zero” intellectually.  Propaganda for the ignorant.  I will be reviewing several ways in which the article content is inaccurate, if not intentionally fraudulent, in the upcoming issue of the Mining Stock Journal.

That said, the headline outright acknowledges that the Fed’s goal with respect to the price of gold is to prevent it from moving higher. The idea that Yellen “can’t halt” the rising price of gold implies that such intervention is part of the Fed’s mandate.  It’s the first time I can recall in 16 years of researching, trading and investing in the precious metals market that the mainstream financial media, unwittingly or not,  has acknowledged that the Federal Reserve attempts to intervene in the gold market.

If the implied message of the headline was inadvertent, it means that conversations with respect to the Fed and its role in preventing the price of gold from rising are actively occurring in meeting rooms and reporter “bullpens” at several financial media organizations, with orders from “above” to never publish the truth.   Imagine if the Washington Post had withheld the news about Watergate…

Today’s action in gold exemplifies the tenor of the Bloomberg report.  Almost as if “on cue,” in deference to Yellen’s attempt to “halt” the gold rally from yesterday, gold was slammed for $9 this morning.  The reason generally attributed is “March rate hike hopes” LINK.   I guess that’s all it takes.  Yellen or some Fed clown exhales “rate hike on the table in March” and gold gets slammed by the trading computers.

Allegedly Germany has repatriated a large portion of its gold ahead of schedule (why it was supposed to take 7 years no one can explain).  Notwithstanding whether or not the gold is actually sitting physically in a Bundesbank vault, the announcement of the early repatriation conveys a sense of urgency to do so.  Furthermore, the eastern hemisphere countries are hoovering gold like there’s no tomorrow for fiat currency.

The Feds and the western Central Banks are exuding fear with respect to gold. The escalation in anti-gold propaganda reflects this sense of desperation, as do the shallow sell-offs followed by a move higher in paper gold that are initiated by LBMA and Comex paper traders after the Asian markets close for the day.  The conclusion remains that all sell-offs in the gold market, like today’s, should be capitalized upon by adding to positions in physical gold and silver and in mining stocks.

Alan Greenspan Endorses The Gold Standard

In his remarkable essay, “Gold and Economic Freedom,” written in 1966, Alan Greenspan stated:

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government’s promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit.

Greenspan of course went to become the front-man for the interminably corrupted Central Bank system, which is utilized as a wealth-confiscation and control mechanism for the elitists who control western Governments (Mayer Rotschild: “let me issue and control a nation’s currency and I care not who writes the laws”).

Interestingly, Greenspan is spending his final years coming clean about fiat currencies and the fractional banking system, as reviewed here in The Daily Coin:  LINK.   Most recently, in an interview with the World Gold Council’s “Gold Investor” publication, Greenspan fully endorses a return to the gold standard:

If the gold standard were in place today we would not have reached the situation in which we now find ourselves. We cannot afford to spend on infrastructure in the way that we should. The US sorely needs it, and it would pay for itself eventually in the form of a better economic environment (infrastructure)  LINK

We can only speculate the reasons why Greenspan has gone full circle back to his views expressed in his 1966 seminal essay about gold and is “coming clean” about economic systems based on fiat currencies rather than a gold standard.  But the fact that the former fiat money “Maestro” is now advocating the gold standard reinforces its validity.

In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth,  we discuss the effort underway to discredit gold by the mainstream media using misinformation, disinformation and outright lies in the context of Greenspan’s stunning admissions:

Click on either image to learn more:

Proposed Global Class Action Gold & Silver Manipulation Lawsuit

This news was originally disseminated by GATA on February 5th.  A British law firm, Leon Kaye Soliciters, has proposed the initiation of a class-action lawsuit charging that six “well known” financial services groups conspired to manipulate the London Gold Fixing from 2004 – 2014.   The proposal cites the recent settled Deutsche Bank class action suit for in New York and the ongoing billion dollar class action suit in Ontario, Canada.  The class action suit would be open to investors globally.  If interested contact Leon Kaye at info@leonkaye.co.uk.  Here’s a summary of the proposal:

Based on documents in the public domain to which we refer below, we consider that there are good grounds to believe that members of six well-known financial services groups combined together to manipulate the outcome of the London Gold Fixing between about 2004 and 2014 and that members of four of those groups combined to manipulate the outcome of the London Silver Fixing between about 1999 and 2014. The effect of this was to create false market prices, in particular by artificially depressing prices after the 3pm (London time) Gold Price Fixing and to increase bid-offer spreads in physical gold, physical silver and their respective derivative instruments. The relevant institutions did this to increase their profits from their own activities in these markets at the expense of other market participants who have therefore suffered loss and damage, probably running into hundreds of millions of pounds in aggregate.

If it can be established that these financial institutions participated in price fixing then we consider that there can be little doubt that they have breached section 2 of the Competition Act 1998 and are liable to pay damages to any other market participant that suffered loss and damage as a result.

Market participants who have suffered loss and damage are entitled to claim damages in proceedings in the Competition Appeal Tribunal (“CAT”) in a class action pursued either on an ‘opt-out’ or an ‘opt-in’ basis.

You can read the entire announcement here:  Proposed Precious Metals Class Action Suit

While I’m skeptical that this will have an impact on the market, even if the suit is ultimately filed, there’s always the chance that court-ordered discovery – assuming these banks have not destroyed and wiped clean any evidence – could reveal the truth.   And the truth will set the gold/silver price free.

The U.S. Can Learn From India’s Move To Digital Currency?

In short, we can learn to not let it happen here.

In August, Obama’s Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, appointed Jeff Bezos to the little-known and highly secretive Defense Innovation Advisory Board.  This for me confirmed that Bezos was an integral part of the Deep State, which I began to suspect when Amazon’s cloud computing division started receiving contracts from various Deep State divisions (like the CIA).    This “advisory” board is chaired by Googles Eric Schmidt.

This position dovetails nicely with Bezos’ ownership of the Washinton Post, which has been transformed into part of the Deep State’s program to proliferate propaganda – or “fake news.” Funded by the taxpayers, the work being done by this Board has intentionally been “kept under wraps,” as Business Insider describes.

After, all the Washington Post has been well respected  for decades as one of the primary “go-to” newspapers for domestic and international political news reporting.  Trusted as such, historically if a news item was reported by the WashPo, it had to be true, right?

Under Bezos’ control, and in the context that Bezos is part of the Deep State mechanism, the WashPo has become an Orwellian device in the “war on truth.”  In addition, Bezos can use the “power of the pen” as a powerful political weapon against politicians or Government bureaucrats who oppose the Establishment and the Deep State.

With that as a backdrop, the Washington Post published a curious report on the Indian Government’s of the removal of the most commonly used cash bills by the Indian populace titled, What The U.S. Can Learn From India’s Move Toward A Cashless Society.  The article goes on to describe all of these “benefits” but only casually mentions the huge economic disruption caused by the move.

Of course, these “benefits” all had to do with the implementation of technology which makes it easier for the Government to identify, track and ultimately control the individual. It should come as no surprise to us that, given the role Bezos plays as part of the Deep State, Bezos’ newspaper would be promoting the digital banking system.

A crucial fact not known by most is that the former Chairman of India’s Central Bank – the Reserve Bank of India – was appointed as the Vice Chairman of the BIS in 2015.  This fact calls into question the idea that digitizing India’s banking system was motivated by anything other than the western elitists’ goal of implementing totalitarianism.

While the WashPo did mention the disruption to India’s economy caused by the removal of the most common currency bills, the article did not mention the fact that the move temporarily undermined the population’s ability to buy gold during the country’s biggest seasonal gold buying period.  This latter effect was likely one of the primary motives behind the move and it underscores the control over India that can be exerted by the western elitists and their Central Banking cartel.

The bottom line is that India was used as “testing ground” for the western global elitists’ plan to digitize the global currency system. This will be used to exert Orwellian totalitarian control over the masses. It should come as no surprise that the wealthiest elitists like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos have been advocating a cashless banking system, backed by the “intellectual” support of “academics” like Harvard’s Larry Summers and Kenneth Rogoff.

There’s no question that subtle and gradual effort will be used to implement a cashless banking system in the U.S.   All the warning signs are flashing.  I also suspect that, at some point, the “national security” card will be pulled in persuading the masses that cash is the “currency of terrorists.”

Ben Franklin once warned, to paraphrase him, that if we give up some of our freedom in exchange for security, we will eventually end up with neither.   That is where we are headed unless there’s an effort to prevent the elimination and use of cash in our economic system.

U.S. Political Crisis Foments While China & India Devour Gold

The demand for gold in India and China so far this year has soared, a fact which is completely ignored by the western financial media. The ex-duty Indian gold import premiums (approximately $10 earlier this week) are quite remarkable, “as the need to import kilo bars only arises if Indian demand is not satisfied by Dore imports (which had a duty advantage of $15.52/oz this afternoon) and smuggled gold. Reports of apprehensions at Indian airports are continuing to appear, indicating that smuggling has in fact revived” – John Brimelow’s Gold Jottings, brimelowgoldjottings@gmail.com).

Brimelow also reported that 162 tonnes of gold were delivered into into Shanghai Gold Exchange on Monday this week, preceded by 79 tonnes on Friday. The Friday delivery is the largest by far that I’ve observed in watching this statistic over the last several years.

While the eastern hemisphere is busy converting fiat currency into physically delivered gold, the United States political system is becoming increasingly unstable and unpredictable, as the Trump White House, in an effort to repair the frayed relations with Russia, is under systematic attack from the Deep State.  Trump’s erratic leadership combined with the Deep State’s political terrorism will likely spark political and social chaos in the U.S.

The relentless buying strength of physical gold in the east along with the incipient instability of the U.S. are fundamental catalysts to drive the price of gold and silver a lot higher.  Furthermore, the emergence of accelerating price inflation thrown into the mix has the potential to create the “perfect storm” for higher precious metals prices.

In an earlier post I explain why now is the time to use the manipulated paper gold price take-downs as buying opportunities.  This viewpoint was vindicated during the two-day Fed Chairman staged Congressional propaganda event, which historically is a period  in which the banks slam the gold market with tonnes of paper gold in order to prevent the price of gold from signaling a message that conflicts with the economic and financial fairytale artfully spun by the Fed-head (or not so artfully, as it were, in Yellen’s case).

Gold was slammed nearly $20 just prior to and during Yellen’s hot air exhalation sessions on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The catalyst was a series of paper gold volume surges on the Comex in which the NY Fed and its agent bullion banks drop a payload of gold futures on both the Comex floor and into the CME Globex trading system, targeting the stop-losses set by hedge funds that are long gold contracts.  This detonates an avalanche of selling by momentum-chasing hedge fund algos.

Subsequent Yellen’s freak show on Capitol Hill, gold promptly defied the paper market deviance and shot up $21 to a new year-to-date high.  If the deteriorating economic fundamentals manage to chew through the safety-net that has been placed beneath the stock market, a real rush into gold – physical and derivative – will be triggered.   In the meantime, the nature of the precious metals trading has shifted from shorting rallies and covering those shorts on sell-offs to buying dips and selling rallies.   Eventually the hedge fund algos will be programmed to buy dips and aggressively buy rallies.  That’s when the real fun begins, especially in the junior mining stocks…

Gold & Silver: Buy The Paper Price Attacks

These premiums [the ex-duty import prices being paid for legal kilo bar imports in India] are actually quite remarkable as the need to import kilo bars only arises if Indian demand is not satisfied by Dore imports (which had a duty advantage of $15.52/oz this afternoon) and smuggled gold. Reports of apprehensions at Indian airports are continuing to appear, indicating that smuggling has in fact revived. – excerpt from John Brimelow’s Gold Jottings Report (contact John at brimelowgoldjottings@gmail.com to learn more about his service)

The price of gold & silver have had a big move since mid-December, despite the flood of “fake news” connected to the temporary disruption of gold imports into India precipitated by Modi’s now-failed attempt to limit the ability of Indians to buy physical gold and despite the plethora of fake news about the quantity of gold flowing into China both before and after after the week-long Chinese New Year observance.

Brimelow goes on to assert in one of his Monday updates that, “Viewed from a US-centric and technical perspective, gold’s friends have something to worry about. However the Asian buying is about as strong as it ever usually gets and for that reason the Bears’ prospects are probably limited.”  Note, the “technical perspective” indirectly references that use of paper gold by the western bullion banks in their attempt to control the global price of gold.

As an example of the price-control mechanism implemented in the western paper market, you’ll note that after a surprise bounce in gold on Friday, likely stimulated by paper short-covering on the Comex, was met with an attack after the Monday a.m. LBMA gold price “fix” and again right after the Comex floor paper gold trading commences:

These are typical times during the day, when the physical gold buying markets in the east are closed for the day and the western paper market manipulators take control of global gold trading via LMBA forwards and Comex futures and OTC derivatives.

Just as notable about Friday’s move higher in gold during NY trading hours is that fact that the price was moving in correlation with a move higher in both the dollar index and the U.S. stock market.  Often, there is an inverse correlation between gold and the USDX/Dow/SPX.

There’s is an “invisible hand” in the market pushing the prices of gold and silver higher in defiance of the attempted price control schemes being exerted in London and New York. This silent operator is without the pressure being exerted in the physical market.

This week I’m sure will prove to be a bit of a price roller-coaster, as the semi-annual “Humphrey-Hawkins” (as it used to be called) Fed Chairman testimony on monetary policy and the economy is a time used by the western CB’s and bullion banks to control the price of gold using paper. After all, they can’t have the price of gold moving higher when the Fed’s El Hefe is extolling the virtues of the fiat currency and fractional banking system in front of Congress and the world, which begins today.

The point here is that it’s my view that the next longer term trend move in gold is higher, which means that price attacks should be used as buying opportunities, both for the metal and the mining shares.  In fact, the mining shares were quite stubborn about going lower when gold was being hit hard in New York after being hit hard in London.  Typically this is a signal to the market that prices in the precious metals sector are going higher.

 

What Happens To Gold & Silver When Trump Attacks The Dollar?

Get prepared because we’re going to have the worst economic problems we’ve had in your lifetime or my lifetime. – Jim Rogers, Macro Outlook in the Trump Era – MacroVoices

Make no mistake, it’s going to get ugly at some point in 2017. Elijah Johnson at Silver Doctors invited me to discuss why I believe Trump’s policies, assuming he gets anything passed and implemented, will be phenomenal for gold. Another factor not being discounted or widely discussed is an acceleration in the rate of inflation over and above the ability of the Government’s CPI sausage grinder to mute actual price inflation in everyday consumables.