Statistical Witches Brew Belies The Truth About The Housing Market

The fundamentals of housing are so weak that when the tide does start to go out because of different possible catalysts, it’s going to reveal a mess.  – comment to me from a reader who is watching the disintegration of the housing market “recovery” in California

Despite all of the bullhorn, rah rah rhetoric coming from the National Association of Realtor’s chief cheerleader, Lawrence Yun, the massive intervention in the housing market by the Fed and the Government is beginning to fade quickly.   I guess in the face of evidence far too overwhelming and obvious to cover up with propaganda-laced sound-bytes about “strong jobs growth” and “low inventory,”  the NAR has been forced to admit that the energy market depression – LINK.  At some point, when the “tide does start go out,” everyone is going to wonder why the NAR’s seasonally adjusted hocus pocus data has not transmitted into actual, bona fide sales.

I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha which explains the corrupted foundation underlying the NAR’s statistical witches brew.  In fact, I have evidence direct from the Fed that shows the “low inventory” narrative is 100% false – sales and inventory levels are actually inversely correlated.  Funny thing, that.  But it won’t be funny to the people who chased the price of their dream higher by listening to the “wisdom” of their “friendly” house broker.  You can read my article here:   Existing Home Sales For October Drop More Than Expected.

I toured some middle/upper middle neighborhoods yesterday that up until recently had very little on the market.  Mysteriously, a lot of homes seemed to have popped up on the market for sale in the last few weeks.   I was wondering if perhaps the home broker community had convinced their “pending” sellers to list their homes for Black Friday Month.  You have wonder, what is going on that would cause someone to list their home going into the slowest seasonal period of the year for homes sales?

0 thoughts on “Statistical Witches Brew Belies The Truth About The Housing Market

  1. When I go to trulia, and do a search for Charlotte, NC, the first 108 pages (out of 324) are for foreclosures and bank owned properties. That’s staggering.

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