Tag Archives: Bill Miller

Another Huge Reason To Short AMZN – The Perfect Contra-Bill Miller Trade

First of all, regard this as a warning to get your cash out of any funds at Legg Mason that are touched by Bill Miller.  The last time Miller was this bullish on stocks and AMZN, the S&P 500 collapsed from 1550 to 700 in 17 months.

Miller bills himself as a “value” investor.  Yet, currently he has the pools of money he manages at Legg Mason 10% invested in AMZN.  This just in, Bill, any stock that trades at a 425x earnings, 2.5x sales and 19x book definitionally is not a value play.  Miller’s current highly disillusioned view on the stock market can be seen here:  LINK.

Bill Miller’s claim to fame was beating the S&P 500 11 years in a row – until 2008 hit.  He did this by making highly concentrated bets in the hot financial sector stocks, homebuilders and hot momentum stocks like AMZN.  Nothing complicated there – certainly nothing Miller should have been earning $10’s of millions in fees on – go to the Blackjack table with the hot shoe and bet everything in your pocket on every hand.  Of course, eventually the shoe turns ice cold and the dealer wipes you out, quickly.

Fast forward to February 2009 and Miller had one of the worst 10-year track records in the industry.  He should have been investigated and barred from the industry.  Instead, he’s back to his same old tricks with a 10% bet on AMZN.  His fund at Legg Mason is down 20% for the month of January.  By the end of the year, I predict that all of the gains he may have achieved over the last 5 years will be wiped out and his investors’ accounts will be incinerated.

If anyone wants to understand why Miller’s position in AMZN is the ultimate example of reckless money management devoid of proper due diligence, you can see the truth in detail in my Amazon dot Con report.   I’m working on the 4th quarter numbers and will soon have an update, which will be available to everyone who has bought the big report.