Tag Archives: Black Friday sales

It’s Official: Black Friday Sales Plunge 10% From Last Year

Total sales in the US on Black Friday fell 10% to $10.4bn this year, down from $11.6bn in 2014, according to research firm ShopperTrak.  – The Guardian

Store-based sales dropped $1.2 billion, while online sales increased $150 million.   The media is going to highlight the increase in online sales.  But remember, online sales represent only 6% of total retail sales.  The plunge in brick-and-mortar sales was nearly 10x greater in total dollars than was the increase in cyber sales.

The bottom line is that consumer is dead on arrival.  Stagnating nominal wage growth, decline real (inflation-adjusted) median household income and skyrocketing non-discretionary expenses are eating the middle class alive.  Throw in the huge increase in Obamacare premiums and it’s like throwing gasoline into a bonfire.

The retailer stocks are going to get crushed, regardless of what happens with the five stocks used by the Fed and the banks to keep the overall S&P 500/Dow indices propped up (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet (Google) and Disney).

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Click on the image or here – Short Seller’s Journal for two great ideas to short the retail stock sector

Was Black Friday A Bust?

“We believe Thanksgiving shopping was a bust,” said analysts at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in a note. They conducted channel checks in the New York metro area, New England and the Southeast region starting on Thanksgiving Day and throughout the night into Black Friday.  LINK

Retail sales fell .9% last December.  Currently the trend is not the friend of the consumer retail sales bulls (click on image to enlarge):

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SunTrust retail analysts are already declaring Black Friday to be a bust.  Of course, our first clue this was coming was when the “Black Friday” sales events started two Mondays ago.   Anecdotally, I did some “boots on the ground” due diligence today (Black Friday) and found the stores to be eerily quiet.  And Denver is considered to have one of the healthier regional economies.

The bottom line is that the consumer is tapped out.  Obamacare premium rate hikes are starting to show up in mailboxes and that should really put a damper on holiday spending plans.

I have a new research report format that I am going to transition into a monthly newsletter service. The reports will have a couple ideas for making money – mostly by shorting or buying puts.  My first report featured two retail stock shorts.BlogLOGO_retail  One of them reported last Tuesday and anyone who read my report and shorted this stock ahead of the close on Monday (November 23), made a quick 16-20% the next day, depending on when and if they covered:

Untitled2This stock still has plenty of downside left, as it sells into the middle/lower-middle income demographic, which has been particularly squeezed since the 2008 financial crisis.

My second idea in this report will release its earnings next Thursday (December 3).  This stock, in my opinion, has a very high probability of missing its earnings and doing the “earnings miss” cliff-dive. Untitled3 It also has active options and my report has suggestions on using puts to play this stock.  It sells into the late teen/early 20’s demographic primarily – you get the idea:

I think this stock could easily drop 12-15% if it reports an earnings miss next Thursday.

You can access my report on these two stocks here:   Short Seller’s BlogLOGO_retailJournal – Retail Stocks  This is a new 2-page per stock idea format, with an overview of each company, reasons why I think the companies will miss earnings and why they make excellent risk/return short term trades or longer term short positions.