Tag Archives: financial collapse

Stewart Dougherty: Government Bail-Ins, Asset Confiscations And The Gold Sword Of Self-Defense

[Preface: In Part 1 of our report, “Goldman to Trump: Situation Assessment, Government Bail-ins and the Precious Metals Threat,” we inferred what Goldman Sachs’s second in command Gary Cohn might have said to President-elect Trump during their meeting on November 29, 2016. Cohn met again with Mr. Trump on December 2, 2016, and this time, we have inferred that he was accompanied by a second person. Here is Part 2 of our intuited, fictional report.]

Mr. Cohn: It is a pleasure to see you once again, Mr. Trump. I have been pre-empted. I was asked by important friends of our firm to introduce to you their envoy, Dr. Hugo Ehrlich. I can vouch for the fact that he represents extraordinarily powerful people with whom you will be working closely going forward. Let me turn it over to Dr. Ehrlich so he can explain.”

Dr. Ehrlich: “Thank you for meeting with me, Mr. Trump. Our time is short, so let’s respect it and get straight to business.

“I represent a global, privately held corporation known as Globanque. I doubt you have heard of it; we have a strict code of secrecy and silence. Globanque’s Directors would like to congratulate you on becoming president of the largest corporation in the world, the United States Government. Globanque, which owns the Bank for International Settlements and has meaningful stakes in numerous governments and other corporations, is also the majority shareholder of USG, Inc. Our friends at Goldman are intimately familiar with USG, Inc.’s ownership structure, because several years ago they helped Globanque acquire its controlling interest of your nation.

“While the Globanque Board does not wish to be disrespectful, a point of clarification is in order: the Directors would like me to note that the CEO and Chairman positions at USG, Inc. are distinct from yours, and that the executives are appointed by Globanque. The names of the incumbents are confidential, for reasons of optics and security. We doubt that the American people would understand why the two most powerful positions in what they mistakenly believe to be ‘their’ government are held by people whose names they have never heard of, and whose faces they have never seen. Perhaps in due course you can come meet your colleagues in Basel, and play a round of golf with them so you can get to know one another.

“If we were to portray USG, Inc. in geometric form, it would take the shape of a pyramid with a razor thin top and a very wide base. The base would represent the people, whom we ask to pay all the company’s bills. The middle would reflect the government staff who handle day-to-day logistics and the enforcement personnel who ensure the people don’t get out of line. And the top would represent the very few shareholders and cronies who control the corporation and make all the money. It is a fitting shape for USG, Inc., which happens to be the largest pyramid scheme civilization has ever known.

“In addition to being the largest corporation in the world, USG, Inc. is also the most profitable. You are looking at me quizzically, as if to say, “How can a corporation that is losing more than $1 trillion per year (as reflected by its deficits) be profitable? I’ll explain.

“While USG, Inc.’s deficits might look like losses, they actually represent dividends paid to its owners. Last year, the corporation had over $1,000,000,000,000 in deficits, which in fact were payments to Globanque and the other shareholders. The payments are made in many ways, including interest on the corporation’s massive debt; military contracts for contrived, enormously profitable wars; a broad variety of government contracts extended to cronies; so-called foreign aid which actually constitutes disguised payments to affiliates; and dozens of other ways to compensate insiders. USG, Inc. spends trillions of dollars each year, and no one really knows where all the money goes, even though the corporation does a good job of creating the impression that its accounting is accurate, which it is not.

“The deficits, in other words the shadow dividends funneled to shareholders, are funded by debt, which relentlessly rises at USG, Inc. The deficits and the debt increases move in unison. Dividends are extracted, and debt is injected. Forensic accountants would have a different term for this capital extraction; they would call it looting. Which is why forensic accountants are not permitted anywhere near USG, Inc.’s books. The corporation’s actions, just like those of the Fed and BIS, are completely immune from formal or actionable audit.

Over the past decade, more than $12 trillion dollars have been paid out by USG, Inc. in the form of dividends, making the shareholders extraordinarily wealthy. There has never been a dividend payout of this magnitude in commercial history. As you might imagine, Globanque spends a great deal of intellectual capital figuring out how to keep this trillion plus dollar game going. If USG, Inc. were to fail, it would be virtually impossible for Globanque to replicate it, and its earnings would be punished. Globanque’s Directors are not going to let that happen, if there is any way they can prevent it. If this means human casualties, so be it. They are people who do whatever it takes to win, with emphasis on the world whatever.

“There is a problem that concerns the Directors. There are unmistakable signs that the United States is approaching a state of what we call Peak Debt. While up until now we have had no problem saddling USG, Inc. with an ever expanding mountain of debt, and while we had planned on adding an additional $10 trillion of it during the next eight years or so, a faint but foul scent of debt revulsion seems to have seeped into the air.

“If we are not persistently able to increase USG, Inc.’s debt, it will become obvious that the company is bankrupt and that there is no viable means whatsoever by which to save it. USG, Inc. will have to be dissolved.

“The Peak Debt problem is compounded by the fact that in our view, the probability of a 2008/09-like financial crisis or worse occurring in the United States and beyond during the first two years of your presidency is close to 100%, which will hurt and possibly crush tax receipts. Therefore, there would be less money coming into USG, Inc. from taxes and debt issuance, a rabbit punch that would throw the corporation into a financial crisis.

“We have simulated in detail every possible response we might make when these problems manifest themselves. In the past, several temporary fixes were available to us, and we used them. But they were like bullets; they could only be shot once. Now, the ammunition box is empty, save for one remaining shell. Which is the outright confiscation of the people’s wealth in order to fund USG, Inc. and keep it alive; in other words, government bail-ins. We realize this measure is extreme and will be socially incendiary, but it is literally the only remaining option open to us next time around.

“The bad news for us, the dirty secret that must be kept a secret at any cost, is that as things stand right now, the people hold all the cards. The good news for us is that they don’t know it. If they were to understand and exert the financial power they possess, they could not only avoid the government bail-ins that are going to financially wound and ultimately impoverish them, but guarantee for themselves a level of financial freedom and personal well-being unmatched by anything they have ever before experienced. But they do not understand, at least not yet, and therefore they do not act. We need to keep it that way.

“The solution of which I speak is extraordinarily straightforward, and while it might sound simplistic, we at Globanque are almost certain it would work: for them, not us. All that the people need do is convert a portion of their digital fiat currency into precious metals. Now, while they still can. If they were to convert a mere 2% of their bank balances, roughly $200 billion, into gold, this would produce incremental demand of 167,000,000 ounces, assuming a price of $1,200 per troy ounce, which it won’t be for long. But incremental demand of that magnitude would obliterate supply, and prices would have to increase, possibly surge. This would convince many more people that it is a good idea to convert bank balances into real money. Which would lead to more buying, driving prices even higher. Ultimately, this could lead to a buying stampede, which is the exact last thing USG, Inc. and its fraudulent, exploitive banking system can withstand at this time. Such action by the people would deal a deadly blow to our strategy, which is to trap their money within the banking system, which we control, and keep it available for expropriation.

“We need to prevent the people from seeing the simple financial solution that is right before their eyes. It is vital that we keep them from moving their liquid assets outside of the banking system, either by withdrawing cash or purchasing precious metals. Accordingly, we have dramatically intensified actions designed to severely restrict or make it outright impossible for them to redenominate their liquid bank assets. The campaign is named “Operation No Exit,” and I will summarize some of its more important components.

“In Europe, we are radically expanding the definition of “cash” to include prepaid Visa, Eurocard, MasterCard and American Express cards, in addition to prepaid Merchant Gift Cards. Additionally, precious metals are being re-defined as cash. By including prepaid cards and precious metals under the “cash” umbrella, they will become subject to existing and soon to be broadly expanded controls. These cash equivalents will be confiscable on demand by authorities, with no probable cause other than suspicion of some kind of illegal activity or intent, which of course they can just invent.

“Prepaid cards present opportunity because we have rolled out and are perfecting a powerful technology known as ERAD: Electronic Recovery and Access to Data. ERAD devices enable us to swipe any prepaid card and determine its available balance. We can then instantaneously transfer that balance to the specific government bank account programmed into the ERAD terminal. The transfer is irreversible, so there is nothing the card holder can do about it.

“ERAD terminals also enable us to swipe bank-issued ATM, Visa Debit and MasterCard debit cards, determine the cardholder’s exact bank balance, and then seize that amount, in whole or in part. Banks’ daily withdrawal limits will not apply; they are superseded by ERAD. So we could instantaneously remove $100,000.00 from a cardholder’s bank account in one step, if the money were there. This is not a “future” technology, Mr. Trump; ERAD is already operational, and the technology improves every day. You can Google it, if you’d like.

“Several years ago, we expanded the Civil Asset Forfeiture program in the United States. This was a daring step, because CAF completely shreds the most basic and fundamental protections guaranteed by the Constitution. It is unique in that the victim, in other words, the person whose assets have been confiscated, is presumed guilty until they prove themselves innocent via an extremely complicated, specialized and costly legal process for which they themselves must pay. Which is often impossible for them to do, because in many if not most cases, the money they require to retain an attorney has been seized. Few attorneys will even touch a CAF case, due to its byzantine legal technicalities and hurdles, so those who will routinely charge $2,000 per hour or more. Most victims are therefore unable to legally fight for the recovery of the funds that have been stolen from them, resulting in a windfall for the seizing agencies. Which gives the agencies an increased incentive to further expand their CAF activities.

“We expected a strong backlash to CAF. But the fact is, there has been very little, other than from some of the victims. Certain courts have judged the method to be legal, which of course makes no Constitutional sense whatsoever. Those verdicts were only rendered because we paid or extorted judges hearing critical cases to legally ratify CAF. Given the unexpected success of CAF in the United States, we are rapidly expanding it throughout the west, particularly in Europe, where until now the practice has been illegal. CAF is a swift and efficient means by which to seize assets. It also enables us to zero in on specific targets, such as people we know to possess wealth.

“In 2013, we launched Operation Choke Point in the United States, a program that forced banks to summarily discontinue doing business with companies we wanted to cripple and shut down, including gun, ammunition and precious metals retailers. Unfortunately, the implementation of Operation Choke Point under Eric Holder was heavy-handed and sloppy, and it did generate some backlash. The Justice Department was forced to take a pause 18 months later, at least publicly. The program is still very much alive, and we are making the electronic processes more effective. Our objective is to be able to financially disconnect from the banking system and destroy any business that presents a threat to our agenda. If, for example, we cannot get gun control via the courts, then we can simply have the banking system impose it, by financially shutting down the dealers.

“In the United States, we have contracted with the Group of 30 to begin the process of demonizing and eliminating cash. Summers, Rogoff and Krugman are the principle spokespersons for this part of the campaign and we are paying them very well. They have all written articles, and Rogoff has written a book arguing that cash is a menace to society and that it should gradually be eliminated. They posit that drug dealers, terrorists and other undesirables use cash; therefore, it must be banned. There is literally no end to that kind of reasoning, which is exactly why we like to invoke it. By their logic, automobiles, gasoline and food should be prohibited, too, because drug dealers and terrorists drive cars and eat. The cash elimination campaign is based on Goebbels-style propaganda and demagoguery, but history proves that such techniques work, so we gladly use them even when the arguments are ridiculous. Currency elimination is a critical part of “Operation No Exit,” because it forces people to either spend their money, which produces tax revenue, or keep their money in banks, which are digital prisons that we guard and control, and that we intend to lock down when the time comes.

“The ECB is actively pursuing the cash elimination agenda in Europe. They have already stopped production of Euro 500 notes, and all existing Euro 500 notes are being segregated and destroyed if they are deposited into the banking system. Euro 200 and 100 notes will be eliminated next, then the 50s. Ultimately, there will be no cash in Europe. This goes for Australia and New Zealand, as well, where we are making gratifying progress. Control-freak bureaucrats are a Godsend to us.

“Sweden has actually stated its intention to be completely cashless within the next two years or so, which has been helpful to our agenda. We like to work with politicians and bureaucrats in smaller countries, because they can be bought off for less money than those in the bigger countries. We are having similar success in Uruguay, which is regarded as the “Switzerland of South America.” A lot of South American money finds refuge there, so it is an important country for us.

“Everyone knows about India by now. Modi was specifically instructed to conduct the Indian currency demonetization in a slow, methodical manner, as recommended in Rogoff’s book and as Draghi is doing it in Europe. Raghuram Rajan, former head of the Reserve Bank of India informed us that Modi was being pig-headed and would not listen. He wanted to be theatrical so as to look to the Indian people like a great crusader in a righteous cause. He is also a believer in the Politics of Envy, and told the phalanxes of poor Indians that he was rooting out the corrupt wealth of the rich. The hopeless love to hear that their oppressors are being taken down, even if what they hear is a lie. Rajan could not control Modi, so we airlifted him out of India and installed him at the BIS, as Vice Chairman. He will manage Indian recovery operations from there, and remains an important steersman for the overall agenda.

“By acting rashly and stupidly with his wholesale currency demonetization that has wreaked economic and personal havoc throughout India, Modi did severe damage to our cash elimination plans. His actions have provoked broad skepticism throughout the world about the risks of government-monopoly-controlled currencies and private, for-profit central banking systems. This has come at the exact wrong time. We need the people to have blind faith and confidence in fiat currencies and the banking system, because we need bank deposits to be at peak levels when we enact the government bail-ins. Time is already repairing the damage; it always does, as the memories of those struggling simply to survive are predictably short.

“Obama has immeasurably aided our cause by broadly expanding the provisions of the NDAA, which gives the U.S. government dictatorial powers over the people on any pretext whatsoever, even if the pretext is 100% fabricated to fit an agenda. If the American people actually took the time to read the NDAA, they would think they had been transported back in time to Stalinist Russia or Maoist China, but of course, they don’t take the time. They are too busy shopping, watching sports, gorging at all-you-can-eat buffets and texting mind-numbing gossip, which is exactly what we want them to do.

“We are rapidly introducing NDAA-like legislation throughout Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and parts of South America. When the crisis occurs, we will be able to lock down much of the world in a matter of a few hours. Far too little time for the people to be able to react or protect themselves in any effective manner. We have financial interests in and influence with most of these governments, so progress is swift.

“In that our remaining time has grown short, it is not possible for me to go into detail about companion initiatives such as FATCA, Fusion Centers, FinCen, new financial disclosure requirements in Greece that will soon to be extended throughout Europe, FBARS, data collection and sorting projects such as Echelon and Prism, or any of the literally hundreds of additional steps we are simultaneously taking to convert to a 100% digitized economy fully subject to our control. But I can assure you that these efforts are synchronized, global and highly effective.

“Let me just say that the true purpose of the NSA’s Utah Data Center is to create an electronic dossier on all American citizens, with a particular focus on their financial affairs. The UDC will know exactly what assets they own and where, their earnings from all sources, their spending patterns, their medical condition, the medicines they buy and take, the foods they eat, their hobbies and travel patterns, their addictions, the social networks they use and what they say on them, the emails they send and read, the Internet searches they conduct, the people they call and text, the people they see, and in particular, anything they do that compromises them and makes them susceptible to special forms of extortion and/or control. The slightly longer term objective is for the UDC to be able to predict people’s behavior. In this way, we can neutralize targets before we expect they might go into action in some inimical way.

“For us, the UDC’s most valuable innovation is the ability to financially turn people off, as if they were table lamps, should that be in our interests. By digitally decommissioning them, we can render them helpless in a world where all transactions must be made electronically, and cash no longer exists. Imagine if none of your payment cards worked, and there was no other way to make payments; if you could not buy gas or food, pay your utility bills, or eat in a restaurant; if your bank suddenly had no record of you whatsoever; if you had been completely erased from the digitized system that is the only means by which to function in society? In South America, they have a reputation for physically “disappearing” the undesirables; we are going to electronically disappear them, which will be far more efficient and deadly.

“We view it as highly unlikely that citizens will act out if they realize they can be turned off, like table lamps, not just for an hour or a day, but forever if we so choose. Now you exist; now you don’t. Poof! Gone! This will be a critical power for us to have during the government bail-ins; we will make it clear up front that anyone who opposes them will be turned off. And that we will not reactivate them. In time they will starve to death. So what?

“The UDC is being replicated throughout Europe, where significant wealth has accumulated over the centuries, which we plan to seize. The UK and Australia, too, are moving fast to deploy UDC technology in their countries. So there is much progress on many fronts.

“As you can see, this is a massive, multi-faceted, globally coordinated project. We estimate that within three years, the infrastructure for a completely digitized economy will be in place throughout the west. But during these three years, we are at extreme risk that the people will figure out what is happening, and take steps to resist it. Which would be very easy for them to do at this stage, as I pointed out earlier in my comments. We want their money, but at this point, they could easily remove it from our grasp. We are doing everything possible to keep them financially blind.

“The only reason we have been able to make the full-spectrum progress we have made, without any meaningful popular backlash is that the vast majority citizens don’t see the overall agenda. They read about one thing we’re doing in one area, another thing somewhere else, another thing in yet another place. But they are discrete data points and sightings. The people are too busy trying to survive to sit down, put all the puzzle pieces on the table, and then assemble them into the complete picture. If they did, they would be stunned and angry. And they would take action. But they don’t see the picture, they just see little fragments of it, so we are able to push on. When they finally do see it, our system will be in place and it will be too late for them to do anything about it.

“That summarizes where we are, but there’s one last thing. Our friends at Goldman are an important “boots on the ground” resource in for us here in the United States. We rely on them regularly. We do think you should bring Gary on board. Let him do his work from the inside. We will all be able to move a lot faster that way.

“Well, my time is up. It has been a pleasure speaking with you, Mr. Trump. I need to get back to Teterboro for the return flight to Switzerland; the Falcon and flight crew await. Next time we meet, I hope we won’t be so rushed, and that perhaps we can have a nice meal and let our conversation take us beyond business. There is more to life. With that, let me thank you again and bid you farewell for now.”

Ehrlich approaches the office door, then turns. “Something I almost forgot to mention. In the spirit of what they believe is going to become an excellent friendship, the Directors authorized me to share with you an inside tip, something they almost never do. They wanted you to know that they are buying gold in the millions of ounces. They think you should be buying, too. And particularly your children, whom they respect. It will be a home run for them, given the magic of time. Feel free to tell your kids to take a look at gold, but don’t tell them anything about our meeting. Your first loyalty test, my new friend.” He opens the door and is gone.

Trump turns to Cohn and says, “I guess the good Doctor’s just said ‘You’re Hired.’ I’ll get the process moving right away. And Good God, I had no idea all of this was going on.” The men shake hands and Cohn leaves the office.

[Seven days later, Donald Trump announced that Gary Cohn would become Director of the National Economic Council of the United States of America, one of the most powerful financial positions in the world.]

Stewart Dougherty is the creator of Inferential Analytics (IA), a forecasting method that applies to events proprietary, time-tested principles of human instinct, desire and action. In his view, forecasting methods not fundamentally based upon principles of human action are unlikely to be reliable over time. He is a graduate of Tufts University (BA) and Harvard Business School (MBA), is a 35+ year veteran of the business trenches and has developed IA over a period of 15+ years.

Does The Attack On Gold Signal An Imminent Bank Collapse

Since August, the gold price managers – aka “the gold cartel” – have been regularly dumping a lot of paper gold onto the Comex when the Comex floor opens at 8:20 a.m. EST. It’s been their standard operating procedure for the better part of the last 15 years.  The fact that the world’s largest gold buyer – China – is closed all week for a holiday observance takes away the biggest physical market bid for five trading days, making it easier to smash down the price of gold using fraudulent fiat paper gold.

It’s hard to ignore that the events in the financial and economic system unfolding now are not unlike the events that occurred prior to the 2008 “great financial collapse,” which was a de facto western banking system collapse.  The U.S. and European economies are contracting, the housing market is beginning to crumble (see this – link – for instance), the auto market is headed south as auto loan defaults are headed north and it would appear that the middle class consumer is out of disposable income.  There are plenty of other factors that make this time around much worse than 2008, but we’ll save discussion of those for another day.

It’s also hard to ignore “quacking” coming from Deutsche Bank.  It would appear that DB is on the ropes financially.  The incessantly repetitive denials of any problems coming from Central Bankers and the DB upper brass  make the “quacking” even harder to ignore.  If it looks, sounds and operates like a collapsing bank…well, it’s probably a collapsing bank.

There’s no doubt that the recent take-down of gold and silver  – especially today’s – is inextricably connected to some sort of financial system disaster brewing.  In today’s Shadow of Truth, we discuss the massive hit put on gold and reasons why it’s likely an operation implemented to prevent gold from alerting the public that a potentially catastrophic financial hurricane is swirling around “offshore.”  After all, it is hurricane season:

This email from one of Dave’s Mining Stock Journal subscribers is yet another indication that something ugly is unfolding with Deutsche Bank:

I have a very good friend who has been a financial market professional for almost 40 years. He’s very knowledgeable about the monetary system and the general state of the world economy. Last week, he was in Europe on business. His trip ended in Brussels, so he flew home from there on Saturday (this past weekend). He has zillions of frequent flyer miles, so he always travels in First Class. As he flew home this past Saturday, he noticed that there were a bunch of people in his section, and they were travelling as a group. Based on conversations he could overhear, it seemed that they were heading to the US for some sort of an emergency meeting about Deutsche Bank. One woman connected with the group approached my friend (under the mistaken impression that he was part of the group). She started to thank him for being able to get free on such short notice to attend the meeting. She didn’t say where the meeting was going to be held, but she did briefly mention the name of the group with which she mistakenly thought my friend was travelling. Unfortunately, he can’t recall the name, but it sounded like it had something to do with the EU. My friend let her rattle on for about 45 seconds before he politely informed her that he was not part of the group. The lady turned beet-red and clammed up immediately!

Deutsche Bank Will Collapse Without A Bailout or Bail-In

Currently the fate of Deutsche Bank is the most discussed topic in the financial markets. The stock price is rumor-driven, the most recent of which were unsubstantiated rumors of a settlement with the Justice Department that drove the stock up 14% last Friday. As it turns out, the bank has not yet initiated face-to-face settlement discussions.

The gyrations of this stock are like the exaggerated “wobbles” of a spinning top right before it drops the floor (or table-top). Make no mistake, DB will collapse absent a bailout by the German Government – likely in collusion with the Fed, ECB and BoE – or a bail-in by creditors, including depositors.

The cost to buy credit protection on DB’s junior debt moved up to a new record high today. Certainly the OTC derivatives market is not convinced that DB CEO, John Cryan, is being forthright in his pleas to the market proclaiming that everything is under control. Judging from the timing of similar remarks make by Bernanke in reference to the mortgage market and by the CEO’s of Bear Stearns and Lehman, DB could be just a few months away from total collapse.

I wanted to share my comments on DB that I included in my weekly Short Seller’s Journal, released last night:

On Thursday last week, DB hit another new all-time low – $11.19 – intra-day Thusday. It closed that day at $11.48, another new all-time low close. Miraculously, a new rumor hit the tape on Friday in which a French media organization tweeted out that the Justice Department and DB agreed to settle the $14 billion mortgage fraud fine levied earlier this month for $5.4 billion. The stock shot up in frenzied short-covering to close @13.09, up 14% from Thursday’s all-time low close. Of course, the French news source back-pedaled away from the certainty of its tweet later in the day.

The false rumors are intentionally dropped on the market to incite hedge fund short-covering. There is still a lot of “big money” trapped in big positions in DB stock. The short-covering activity creates a bid into which insiders and those connected to insiders can unload big positions. Over 70 million shares traded on Friday. This was 3.5x the 10-day average daily volume of 21.8mm shares per day and more than 10x the 90-day average volume of 6.9mm shares per day. In other words, Friday’s activity enabled a lot “trapped” longs to move closer to the exit (unload their positions).

A much better indicator of what’s going on “behind the curtain” at Deutsche Bank is the report that several hedge fund clients of DB’s withdrew any excess cash held in custody at the banks. This fact was confirmed by the CEO. The other indicator is the cost in the derivatives market to buy default insurance on DB’s bonds. On Friday – even after the French media rumor was floated – the cost buy 1 year default protection on DB’s junior bonds soared to over 600 basis points. To put the cost of this in context, the 1-yr rate on U.S. Treasury bonds is 59 basis points (0.59%).

In terms of U.S. Corporate bonds, any company that has to pay 6% to borrow money for one year is likely headed toward bankruptcy. Think about the rate you are paying on your auto loan, if you have one. It’s probably in the 2-4% range. The derivatives market has determined that lending money to Deutsche Bank is riskier than lending money to you…

Turkey is not taking over DB and DB was technically insolvent before the Justice Department threw a $14 billion mortgage fraud fine at the bank. Too be sure, if a settlement is announced, I recommend shorting DB after waiting for DB to spike up on that announcement. Too be sure, eventually the German Government, likely in conjunction with the ECB and the Fed, will be forced to bailout DB.  DB’s derivatives holdings alone are several times larger than Germany’s GDP.  And that’s the liabilities that are visible.  I can guarantee that, having worked on a trading desk that often hid positions from internal regulators using derivatives, that DB has a lot of unknown skeletons in the closet.  I guarantee that.

This up/down rumor-driven trading in DB stock is exactly like the trading that occurred in Enron and Bear Stearns. I shorted Enron in the $40’s and covered it at $12. I covered too soon obviously because of spike-ups on rumors that occurred as the stock approached $10. Same with Bear Stearns, which I shorted in the $20’s. If/when a bailout occurs, it won’t happen until DB stock is well below $10 if not $5.

As for the hidden skeletons lurking underneath DB’s published financial statements, here’s another one that popped out and it’s just the tip of the iceberg:  Deutsche Bank Charged Over Paschi Accounts As Legal Hits Mount – Bloomberg.   If you read the article, you’ll note that Monte Paschi used derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank to hide losses from previous derivatives trades that DB stuffed into the Italian bank.   This is exactly the type of activity I witnessed going on at Bankers Trust before DB bought BT.   Then DB took the same operational algorithm and increased the use of it exponentially.

If you bank with Deutsche Bank, you need to get all of your cash out of any accounts there immediately – unless you don’t care about money.   In fact, other than loans you have from Deutsche Bank, I would close any accounts you have with the bank, including and especially any assets held with its wealth management group.

There will be no justice served to the people who made $100’s of millions in compensation from DB (see disgraced former CEO, Anshu Jain) through fraud – fraud which has and will result in $100’s of billions of wealth destruction.  But you still have time to step-aside and watch the fireworks show from the sidelines.

Famous Last Words – Deutsche Bank: “We Don’t Need A Bailout”

“[The] share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.” – Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at DB on CNBC (sourced from Zerohedge)

“The credit story is strong?”  To begin with, I’m not sure what the head of communications is doing on bubblevision talking about “credit.”  If he understood the meaning of the words he was regurgitating from script, he would not have made that statement if he were under oath.

From a German politician (as reported in Zerohedge):  “you can’t compare Deutsche Bank with Lehman. The bank is in a position to get out of this situation on its own.”  As the adage goes:  A rumor is confirmed as fact once that rumor is denied three times by politicians…

DB stock is down over 7% today.  It’s likely the primary reason that the SPX is down 13 points as I write this (that plus the dismal new home sales report).  DB stock has hit another all-time low.  DB has lost 51% of its market value this year.  The BKX bank stock index is down only 4% this year.  The relative performance isn’t just a red flag, it’s a “code red” five-alarm danger signal.

Here’s the biggest indicator that DB not only has credit problems, but its assets are significantly overvalued by its auditors and internal financial people:   DB’s stock market capitalization is 30% of it’s book value – i.e. DB trades at less than 1/3 its book value.   The amount of cash on DB’s balance sheet is nearly 7x greater than its market cap.

There’s no telling just how catastrophically insolvent DB is because we can’t look at its off-balance-sheet “assets,” which are primarily very risky OTC derivatives.  I also do not believe that DB is the infamous “black swan” because we all see it coming – especially the Central Banks.

But at some point some counter-party to DB is going to ask the bank to post more collateral against some type derivatives contract.  That’s when the fun will begin.  My bet is that right now the Bundesbank – with help from the Fed – is helping DB reinforce its collateral positions.   But if DB’s stock keeps dropping, the collateral calls will likely intensify and come from places that are hidden from even Central Bank view.

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As I was writing this, DB stock has been continuously hitting new lows.  Note the huge increase in monthly volume in the graph above (yellow box).  That’s institutional investors jumping off the sinking Titatanic into life rafts.  There has not been any insider share activity in the last 12 months because insiders don’t own any shares, other than a meaningless amount of unvested compensation shares.

Something ominous in the financial markets is unfolding behind the “curtain,” off-balance-sheet and out of the view of anyone who might care to know the truth.  DB’s balance sheet is a weapon of mass financial destruction in and of itself.  But the hidden financial bombs a DB blow-up will trigger is what the market should really be worried about…

Russia To Supply China With Up To 100 tonnes Of Gold Annually

Russia’s second largest bank, VTB Bank, announced a deal to supply Russia with 12-15 tonnes of gold in the next 12 months.  The amount supplied will increase over time and eventually reach 80-100 tonnes annually:  Reuters Link.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this will be to see if the World Gold Council acknowledges this gold as “Chinese imports.”   The WGC and other entities which purport to track global gold “consumption” have been reporting declining demand for gold in China, based on declining imports from Hong Kong.   Of course, these “official” sources completely ignore the fact that China imports an unknown amount of gold through the ports of Beijing and Shanghai…move along, nothing to see there…

The unarguable scheme by western Central Banks to suppress the price of gold with paper gold is contingent on the ability to deliver actual physical gold into China and India.   In this blog’s educated opinion, the supply of gold available to make this happen is running low:  Central Bank gold stock plus investor custodial gold that has been hypothecated.

This report out of Russia supports the thesis that China’s Central Bank is accumulating, and has accumulated, significantly more gold than it is willing to disclose.  As reported in the South China Morning Post when China announced opening Beijing, after also opening Shanghai,  for gold imports:

Opening the capital as the third shipment point will help the PBOC keep purchases discreet as it is believed to be adding to its bullion reserves…The mainland has begun allowing gold imports through the capital, sources familiar with the matter said, in a move that would help keep purchases by the world’s top bullion buyer discreet at a time when it might be boosting official reserves.  South China Morning News

This is likely why the Fed/ECB/BOE are collectively having a difficult time pushing the price of gold lower after its big move starting in mid-December.   At some point, gold is going launch out its current lateral consolidation and move much higher by the end of the year. Especially once the market fully understands that the ONLY policy choice left for the Fed is to keep printing money at an accelerating rate or risk complete financial collapse.

SoT #85 – Protect Your Gold And Silver From Financial System Risk And Fraud

In this Shadow of Truth Market Update, we discuss the best way to invest in silver, why the only way to protect your wealth and savings is to remove your money from any of the various custodians (banks, IRA/retirement fund custodians, ETFs, any financial firm) and the fraudulent nature of the U.S. financial system.

Five years down the road you’re going to pay taxes and early withdrawal fees on zero because that’s what your IRA is going to worth. – Shadow of Truth

mining-stock-journal-bannerNewSSJ Graphic

Did The Fed Signal The Inevitability Of The Next Banking System Collapse?

Like a Mafia Don protecting his “family,” the Fed is implementing another layer of “protection” from collapse for the Too Big To Fail Banks. This latest deal will prevent bank counter-parties from pulling collateral from a collapsing bank.  The installation of this law is a warning signal that the global banking system is  barreling toward another devastating financial collapse.

The cover story for this scheme is that it will prevent another “Lehman” event from taking down the entire financial system.  But it wasn’t Lehman, per se, that caused the 2008 collapse.  Bear Stearns lit the fuse, Lehman was selectively thrown into the explosives mix and AIG/Goldman sprayed napalm into the explosion.

My source for this information of this is this article from Bloomberg:  More Fed Protection For Big Banks.  I had to read the article carefully a few times to fill-in between the lines, as Bloomberg kept referencing the new rule as a “proposal” and either white-washed or misrepresented the facts.

The new rule will prevent the TBTF bank counter-parties from taking their collateral away from the bank when the bank is collapsing.  When a fund enters into a derivatives trade mushroomcloud1with a bank the fund is required to put up collateral, generally in the form of Treasuries.  The bank is then free to hypothecate that collateral, or make use of it for its own purpose.  But if the bank collapses and the fund is in a “winning” position on its derivatives trade with the bank, it’s in the fund’s best interest to withdraw its collateral.  The new Fed rule will prevent this.  The rule extends beyond derivatives, to securities lending agreements and repo transactions. But the truth is that this Fed rule is aimed squarely at derivatives.

The implementation of this new regulation, at best, extends the bail-in concept to TBTF “big boy” counter-parties, like hedge funds, insurance companies and pensions.  The ROFLMAOwellspring for this new banking rule is the Financial Standards Board, a key policy arm of the BIS.  The FSB is the entity that drafted the bail-in regulation, which has been largely implemented in Europe.  Bail-in regulations are now methodically being installed in the U.S. banking system.

In its essence, this “collateral freeze” regulation will eventually morph into a de facto bail-in mechanism and serves the purpose of transferring wealth from the banks’ counter-parties to the banks.  At the very least, this collateral freeze regulation adds yet another layer of moral hazard into the banking system, as banks are incentivized to underwrite even riskier derivatives transactions with knowledge that the risk of collapse is further minimized.

Interestingly, this new law is “asymmetrical.” If the bank fails, it gets to keep all counter-party collateral locked-up.   But if the bank’s counter-party fails, that counter-party has no ability to freeze the collateral it put up with the bank. The bank has possession of that collateral.  This is what happened in the MF Global collapse, where JP Morgan seized all of MF Global’s collateral, at the detriment of MF Global’s customers.  At the time JPM’s move was illegal but the judicial system looked the other way.

While the funds doing derivatives business with these banks will suffer irreconcilable damage from the new rule, at the end of the day, it will be the investors who have their money with hedge funds, insurance companies and pension funds that will bear the greatest expense of this de facto bail-in law.  That would be you, the public.  Once again the public gets screwed by the financial system in a way that is being enabled by the Government.

COMPLACENY

The only way to protect yourself from this is to remove as much of your wealth from financial custodians as possible.  Not only is the new regulation a clear warning bell of another financial collapse coming, the Fed and the Government are making it even easier to trap your wealth.   The financial system is one giant roach motel – you can check-in but eventually your money will never check-out.

The Precious Metals Are The Market Story Of The Year So Far

“Short gold on market overreaction”Jeffrey Currie on CNBC on Feb 16, 2016;   CNBC host:  “Is there any commodity that you can recommend to help our viewers make money?”  Jeffrey Currie:  “Short gold”CNBC on April 5, 2016;

Goldman Sachs’ Jeffrey Currie has become the “Jim Cramer” of the gold market (click on graph to enlarge).  When heUntitled issues a table-pounding call, do the opposite.  When gold was approaching its bottom around the $1050 level, Currie’s price target was $800.   Much the same way Wall Street banks like Goldman, with AAPL at $96 and down 27% since July have been forced to lower their price target from $200 to $150, Currie was forced to raise his price target for gold to $1080.  And he’s still pounding table with a “short gold” advisory.   I guess when he receives a taxpayer-subsidized seven-figure bonus every year, he doesn’t mind looking like a total idiot with regard to the market.

To be sure, there’s several developments that warrant designation as the market story of the year so far.  The shocking performance of the stock market would likely get the nod except for the now-obvious fact that the Federal Reserves continuous intervention is the force behind the stock market’s buoyancy.  In relation to the true underlying fundamentals, perhaps the only two markets in history that have been more irrational are the Dutch tulip bulb mania of the 1630’s and the Weimar Republic stock market from 1914 – 1923.

Without a doubt in my mind, the move up in the precious metals sector since January 20th is the market story of the year so far.  What makes this even more remarkable is the relentlessness of the move despite the obvious repetitious attempts by the Federal Reserve/bullion banks to push the price of gold/silver lower with fraudulent Comex paper derivatives, as evidenced by the rapidly escalating amount of paper gold/silver contracts printed and sold into the “market.”  The open interest of paper in relation to the amount of underlying deliverable physical gold/silver on the Comex has been multiplying recently at a geometric rate.

This rise in the price of gold/silver has ensued despite a plethora of skepticism from even the traditionally bullish precious metals-investing analysts.  Most market prognosticators – and I’m more less guilty of this myself – have been forecasting a sharp pullback/correction in response to market technicals which heretofore have signaled the imminence of a massive bullion bank price attack.

Further contributing to the surprising price-behavior of gold is the absence of Indian imports which push the market higher with elephantine seasonal demand at this time of year.  India’s import machine has been effectively shut down from a jeweler’s strike since March 1.  This source of physical demand has begun to stir, which could make the present build-up in the paper short interest in gold and silver particularly interesting to watch.

There’s a flood of capital on the sidelines that stands ready to move into the sector but that is waiting for a big price pullback before initiating or adding to position.  The “smart” institutional money has been unloading historically overvalued stocks and is loathe to buy near-zero yielding Treasuries.   Perhaps this dynamic in and of itself will pre-empt any meaningful price corrections for the time-being.  While it may feel like the metals and mining stocks have made an unsustainably large move since mid-January, these two graphs below provide some perspective on the “scale” of the current move (click to enlarge):

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As you can see, the two graphs of gold and the HUI index, while making a large percentage move since mid-January, have barely moved the needle in relation to their mid-bull market tops in 2011.

For as brutal and relentless as the manipulated price correction has been for the last five years, we can expect the next move higher to be a least as equally forceful in its power and durability.  Make no mistake, the underlying fundamentals which triggered the de facto financial system collapse in 2008 and drove the precious metals sector its peak in 2011 have become even stronger since the advent of QE – the money printing which further fertilized and enabled these systemically catastrophic inducing trigger-points.

The junior mining stocks are set up to provide life-style changing wealth creation.  But finding the ones that are bona fide companies is a challenge.  The Mining Stock Journal presents bi-monthly commentary and insight to the precious metals market plus a well-researched junior mining stock idea with each issue.   You can access the current report plus the back-issues (distributed via email) here:  Mining Stock Journal.   The issue that will be published today presents a relatively undiscovered and incredibly undervalued company.

The State Of Illinois Is Bankrupt

There seems to be no limit to the amount of relevant news about the U.S. economic and financial system that the mainstream media keeps off the radar screen.  I truly believe the technically insolvent status of the country’s fifth largest State is a lot more relevant to our collective lives than is the latest episode of The Jerry Springer Show Trump vs. Rubio vs. Cruz vs. Clinton “reality” TV show.

Illinois sports a $111 billion unfunded State pension, it has $8 billion in unpaid bills, tax revenues are declining, spending is accelerating and it has yet to approve a FY 2017 budget. If this were a private corporation, it would have been taken through bankruptcy court and emerged with new owners at this point.

But the true financial condition is even worse than advertised.   Let’s examine that underfunded pension estimate for a moment.  That number would be based on the existing actuarial assumed liabilities vs. the allegedly marked to market value of the assets.   I can say with 110% certainty that the total value of the assets are over-estimated by at least 10% and probably more.  Included in its cesspool of investments would be items like private equity tech investments, high yield-turned-distressed bonds, overvalued real estate and energy investments and, of course, derivatives.   There’s no way that the people running the fund have properly marked to market any of the above toxic assets.

The now-Senator and supremely corrupt Michael Bennett plugged the Denver Public Employee pension fund for a cool $250 million of losses on interest rate derivatives that he bought from his former colleagues at JP Morgan.   Denver’s pension fund is tiny compared to Illinois’ grotesque public employee entitlement monstrosity.

I don’t rely on the mainstream media for updates on the Illinois financial saga.  But every time I run across updates on the situation it has become worse.

I wonder if Obama will avoid the State of Illinois’ funeral the way he’s avoiding SCOTUS Justice Scalia’s funeral:  LINK.  Obama is a real class act…

Deutsche Bank’s Balance Sheet Is Toxic Waste

Deutsche Bank has $1.5 trillion of declared asset value on top of $67 billion of net worth.   But a large portion of its assets are loans and related financing vehicles and trading positions connected to Glencore, VW, the energy sector, emerging market companies, high yield and a highly unreliably valued net derivatives position.  It Deutsche Bank has “mismarked” the value of all these assets by just 5% its net worth is wiped out.

It’s more likely that the bulk of its assets are overvalued by at least 20-30%.   And that’s in the context of the current financial and economic environment – both of which seem to be quickly deteriorating.  In other words, DB is technically insolvent.   I performed a similar analysis on some big bank balance sheets in late 2007/early 2008 and my model predicted the collapse of Countrywide, Wash Mutual and Wachovia. All of the big Wall Street banks should have collapsed but we know how that ended.

The present situation doesn’t remind me of 2008 right before Lehman blew up.  It is more like 2008 x 10.  The hidden ticking time bombs in the global financial system are significantly greater than what was ticking 2008.  And the fraud and criminality used to cover it up, along with the propaganda devised to promote the idea that the economy is recovering, is many times more worse than it was in 2008.

Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com me invited onto this podcast show to discuss Deutsche Bank’s latest “fluffed up” $7 billion “intangibles” write-down, which didn’t even scratch the tip of Deutsche Banks real “iceberg” of financial toxicity.

You can listen to this discussion at here:   Deutsche Bank And The Coming Global Financial Catastrophe

A friend of mine with connections at DB told me yesterday that his sources describe Deutsche Bank as a toxic junkyard of chaos and complete unaccountability.  In my opinion the German Government/EU will eventually either have to print money and monetize DB or its demise will trigger Lehman x 10.