Tag Archives: Junior mining stocks

Is The Precious Metals Sector Set-Up For A Big Run?

I had not noticed until I looked mid-day today (Thursday, Aug 24th) and saw that the HUI index was above 200. It ended up closing just above 200. I want to see it hold above 200 dma and move higher from there before I get excited.  But the chart has become mildly bullish.  GDX, which is a larger representation of the large-cap mining stocks, looks even more bullish that the HUI:

I’m not big advocate of using chart “technicals” to forecast the next move in any market, but many traders, hedge funds and investors use them and they can become “self-fulfilling prophecies.” You can see that GDX (same with HUI and GDXJ) has been trending sideways since early February in a pattern of rrowing volatility. Chartists look at this as a pattern that predicts a big move in either direction. I’ve drawn in a white downtrend line through which the GDX appears to have climbed over. It’s also now above its 50/200 dma’s (yellow and red lines, respectively). I’m not ready to declare a “break-out” yet, but I’m feeling optimistic going into the eastern hemisphere’s biggest seasonal period for accumulating physical gold:

The gold chart above is a 2-yr daily for the price of gold as represented by the Comex continuous gold futures contract. Since April the price has been hitting its head on $1300. I remember when gold attempted to break above $400 in late 2003/early 2004. It took several attempts to get up and over $400. Around that time Robert Prechter had predicted that gold would drop to $50. How well did Prechter’s charts work then?

There’s one of many catalysts away from sheer eastern physical demand or an errant tweet
from Trump that can push gold a lot higher in conjunction with the U.S. dollar index quickly falling a lot lower. The most pressing issues currently are the rising geopolitical tensions between Russia/China and the U.S., the upcoming Treasury debt-ceiling battle and, what is becoming more apparent by the day, a deteriorating U.S. economic and financial system.

Speaking of physical demand, extremely negative ex-duty import premiums have been
observed in India. Many of you may have read standard gold-bashing propaganda pointing to that as evidence that India’s new sales tax is affecting gold demand. But quite the contrary is true. As it turns out, there was a loop-hole in the Goods and Services Tax legislation that scrapped a 10% excise duty on imports from countries with which India had signed a Free Trade Agreement. Currently Indian gold importers appear to be sourcing gold from South Korea, which enables buyers to avoid the 10% import duty entirely. Until the Indian authorities move to close this loophole, we won’t have good feel for how much gold is flowing into India until the official monthly statistics are released. Based on the import trend in June and July, there continues to be an usually large amount of gold imported into India this summer. It will likely pick up even more as we head into the India festival season this fall.

The above commentary is from the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal.  For those of you with huge profit in Novo Resources, I provide some information about Novo that is not in the analyst reports.  It includes some technical information about the nature of the assay results produced up to this point.  The issue contains analysis in support of buying two primary silver producers whose stocks have been sold off well below their intrinsic values.   New subscribers get all of the back-issues.  You can find out more about the MSJ here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

Should You Use Leverage With Precious Metals And Mining Stocks?

While I will maintain, until proven wrong by the test of time, that Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are nothing more than a temporary fad, investing with a long term outlook (20-30 years) gives the investor the best probability of generating life-style changing wealth.

William Powers, of MiningStockEducation.com, invited onto his podcast to discuss using leverage in precious metals and mining stock investing.  We discuss greed/fear, using margin with mining stocks, volatility, options, futures and the leveraged ETFs.

The problem for most investors, and the reason many have not made a lot of money – or might have lost money – in the precious metals sector is the inability to invest with a long term perspective.  Since 2001, gold has outperformed every asset class.  The mining stocks, in general as measured using the HUI index, have outperformed the Dow/Naz since 2001.

If your reason to be invested in a sector is still valid, there’s no reason to sell investments in that sector.  Have the reasons for investing precious metals as a hedge against a collapsing U.S. economic and political system, and thereby a collapse in the U.S. dollar, changed? Have the problems taking the U.S. down been fixed?  The answer is pretty obvious, which means you should be holding your precious metals investments, even if you bought them in early 2011.   In fact, if you bought then, you should be buying more now.  I know I have been adding to my holdings gradually since early 2016.

The next issue of the Mining Stock Journal will be published this Thursday.  I’ll be reviewing a junior stock that  has gone parabolic and a mid-cap producer that has been hammered hard but is poised to bounce back just as sharply.  You can learn more about the MSJ here – new subscribers get all of the back-issues:  Mining Stock Journal information.

The Dollar Is Screaming “Buy Gold (and silver)”

First this, but don’t take our word for it:

The US Dollar is under considerable pressure. Week after week, we talk about how the dollar has been going down for the count. It can only take so many hits. Gold and silver are the safe haven assets to own through a currency crisis, and for the moment, the precious metals have been on the clearance sale rack since July. At what point do the dollar bulls capitulate? It has been years since the dollar has come under pressure, and the frequency in which everybody is a genius yet bouncing from job to job, including in the financial sector, there are now so few analysts/financial advisers/traders who have seen a bear market, that one wonders if anybody will hear it when it roars?

The pressure is building. Just look at copper and ask these questions:

  • Is mining supply down for everything, or just copper?
  • How is copper rallying, yet silver price action has found everything except for a bid?
  • If copper finished the quarter with 2nd place overall gains, across all asset classes, second only to crude, then why are the precious metals so far behind?

Here’s a closer look at copper action of late:


The consolidation is impressive, spanning several months. With the recent 7% gains in just the month of July, is copper set for another leg up, or will it come crashing down to the weakness of gold and silver? Gold prices have been trading in a $20 range since last week. Seriously. To the penny. At a price of approximately $1275 going into Friday’s trading action, gold looks ready to either break-out or break-down:

Silver prices are looking very bullish:


Earlier this week, we reported that mining sector 2nd quarter earnings have now hit full stride. Second quarter earnings from the miners have been mixed. Gold miners seem to be weathering the storm, but silver miners not so much:

GOLD CONSENSUS EPS ACTUAL RESULT
Barrick (ABX) $0.2 $0.22 BEAT
Rand Gold (GOLD) $0.74 $0.88 BEAT
SILVER CONSENSUS EPS ACTUAL RESULT
Endeavour (EXK) $0.02 $0.00 MISS
First Majestic (AG) $0.05 $-0.02 MISS

The performance of the miners begs a the question:

Are the silver miners no longer able to compete, or is silver under-priced when compared to current market conditions?

On the fundamental front, we have several issues to be concerned with. ADP Payroll data suggests poor labor market conditions. According to the most recent report, the manufacturing sector shed 4,000 jobs in July, 2017. Today is the official Bureau of Lies and Statistics BLS Nonfarm Payrolls report, and as we are now over half a year into 2017, this employment data is perhaps the most important release ever. We shall not reiterate what a disaster the rest of the economy has become. The “Stock Market” is at record highs, though the barrage of incoming data paints the picture of a seriously sick economy, and it is perhaps terminal.

SilverDoctors.com has been on the leading edge of Gold News and Silver News Since 2011. Each month, more than 250,000 investors visit SilverDoctors.com to gain insights on Precious Metals News as well as to stay up-to-date on World News impacting the metals markets.

This Feels Like the Action in 2008 Right Before the Collapse

Doc asked me last minute to fill-in for Eric Dubin, who’s M.I.A. somewhere on the shoreline of southern France, on Silver Doctor’s Metals and Markets weekly podcast. Among other topics we discussed why the current trading action in the precious metals paper market feels very similar to trading in the spring/summer of 2008 – ahead of the great financial collapse crisis and why the Fed/bullion banks are making it obvious that they seek  to scare investors away from buying precious metals with their “shock and awe” price-takedowns.

But one big difference between now and 2008 is that these “zip-line” vertical drops in the paper are being met with aggressive buying from the eastern hemisphere physical buyers, thereby limiting the size, intensity and duration of the price-hits.

As of the latest COT report release Friday which details the constituent trader positions through last Tuesday, the trader positions are moving toward a highly bullish set-up for gold and silver. In silver, the hedge funds are now net short silver futures and the swap-dealer segment of the bullion bank positioning is net long. In gold, the hedge funds have aggressively reduced their net long position and the swap dealers are long to a relatively large degree. Historically, this position shift has preceded major bottoms.

In the latest Mining Stock Journal, I present a silver producer who’s stock that was ruthlessly taken recently. I review the details in-depth, including my conversation with the CEO, and discuss why this is an opportunity to buy into a major producing company at irrationally low price level based on the facts of the situation. I also lay-out the call options I put into the fund I manage in large quantities to bet that my assessment has good probability of being correct. You can find out more about subscribing here:   Mining Stock Journal info.

After subscribing to Brent Cook for 3 months, I was underwhelmed.  Resubscribed to you a few weeks back and sure am glad I did so. You are one the few straight shooters still out there. Keep up the great work. I think we are right on the cusp of a serious market break, thus the war drums.  – subscriber “Chris

Templeton Funds And Druckenmiller Get Burned on Barrick

As reported on Bloomberg TV:  “Barrick Gold Corp was back in favor with fund managers last quarter, before the world’s biggest bullion producer reported disappointing earnings and rising costs…Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller’s Duquense Family Office LLC bought 2.85 million shares in Barrick” in the 1st quarter.

Apparently Templeton and Druckenmiller have not done their home work on mining stocks.  Anyone with any knowledge and experience investing in mining stocks knows that companies like Barrick and Goldcorp and are poorly managed, highly bureaucratic organizations.  As such, they are terrible vehicles with which to express a leveraged view on the precious metals market.

Barrick has all kinds of problems that will affect its profitability, including a pile-on of class action lawsuits that hit recently.   Anyone with experience in this sector already knows this. Rather than investing in the largest mining stocks, the best returns in the sector will be made by investing in the companies that will be acquired by these large caps.  A good example is the recent takeover of Exeter Resources (XRA) by Goldcorp:

If Stanley Druckenmiller had been a subscriber to the Mining Stock Journal, he would have known to buy XRA in early September (presented in the Sept 1, 2016 issue) at $1.16. The stock popped up to $1.80 when XRA and GG announced the merger. That’s a 55% ROR in 7 months. MSJ subscribers were also shown Mariana Resources in the December 22, 2016 issue at 82 cents. Mariana agreed to acquired by Sandstorm Gold in a deal valued at $1.41. Because of the heavy stock component, SAND traded lower and Mariana traded up to $1.24. A 51% ROR in four months. The new stock idea presented in mid-April is up 19% and has a lot more room to run.

The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly subscription publication that is designed to help you navigate the smaller-cap mining stocks.  You can learn more about the subscription service here:  Mining Stock Journal information.

After subscribing to Brent Cook for 3 months, I was underwhelmed. Resubscribed to you a few weeks back and sure am glad I did so. You are one the few straight shooters still out there. Keep up the great work. I think we are right on the cusp of a serious market break, thus the war drums. – subscriber “Chris”

Will Physical Gold/Silver Demand Prevent A Bigger Sell-Off?

The precious metals market has been under attack for the last two weeks by the Comex banks who have once again built-up an extreme net short position in their paper gold and silver positions.  In fact the open interest in paper silver recently set a new record high, exceeding the previous high set in 2011, when the price of gold was approaching $50.  That it took a record amount of paper silver creation to keep the price of silver below $20  a sense of desperation by the banking cartel in its effort to keep gold and silver “irrelevant” as an investment.

But the price action of the metals is behaving somewhat differently from past cycles when the banks decide to flex their muscles and trample on the precious metals market by bombarding the Comex with thousands of gold and silver contracts in order to disgorge the long positions held by hedge funds and create intermittent “waterfall” sell-offs.

Eric Dubin (The News Doctors) and the “Doc” (Silver Doctors) invited me back on to their “Metals and Markets” weekly show sponsored by SD Bullion to chat about the precious metals, junior mining stocks and geopolitical current events:

If you would like more information about Investment Research Dynamics’ Mining Stock Journal or Short Seller’s Journal, click on either banner below. The latest MSJ features a relatively unknown junior mining stock that could eventually be a 5-10 bagger from its current price (currently below 30 cents) and the new issue of SSJ (published this evening) explains why the housing market is about to follow the retail and auto sales into a recessionary spiral:

Flash News: Junior Miners Are Not Going To Implode

On Monday IRD published a reply to an article that was posted on Goldseek.com which theorized that capital was going to stop flowing to the junior mining stock sector because of the changes occurring at the GDXJ and JNUG ETF: No, The Junior Mining Stocks Are Not Going To Implode.

In that reply I stated that,  in the course of doing research for the Mining Stock Journal,  that several junior mining stock CEO’s had recently told me that there was an enormous amount of capital coming into the sector from sophisticate pools of institutional investors and strategic players (other mining companies, private equity etc).

This morning the “proof of concept” in my commentary was offered when Sandstorm Gold and Mariana Resources announced a merger deal – this update was sent out to Mining Stock Journal subscribers:

Mariana Resource / Sandstorm Merger Proposal

In the December 22, 2016 issue, I presented Mariana Resources. At the time of publication the stock was at $0.82. (click image to enlarge)

This morning Mariana and Sandstorm Gold (SAND) announced a proposed merger transaction in which Sandstorm acquires MARL in a cash and stock transaction. The value offered based on SAND’s closing price yesterday (April 25th) of $4.04 is $1.41 (MRLDF basis). Mariana shareholders would end up holding 19% of the combined entity.

Currently MRLDF is trading up 67.5% from yesterday’s close at $1.24 (C$1.70, up 67.5%). SAND is trading down 8% at $3.71 (down 33 cents), which is why MRLDF/MARL.V is trading at a discount to the proposed terms at yesterday’s closing price for SAND.

If you want to remain an owner of SAND, the Mining Stock Journal would recommend holding on to MRLDF/MARL. With the drop in SAND’s stock price, I don’t know if Mariana shareholders will be able to coerce a revised to offer in order to bring the value back up to the value as presented in the announcement of the deal. MSJ has not conducted a thorough review of SAND and therefore is not in a position to recommend owning SAND going forward. I will probably issue an opinion in the next issue of MSJ (May 4th).

For some reason the stock market hits the stock price of the acquiring company in mining stock deals that involve share issuance. This offer encompasses shares plus cash. If this were a transaction in any other sector of the market, the acquirer’s stock would be up in value this morning.

I do believe that once the price of gold and silver head higher again, the price of SAND’s stock will recover. If that’s the case, there’s an easy 12% left in MRLDF.

The Mining Stock Journal specializes in finding highly undervalued junior mining shares. It’s a bi-monthly, email-delivery based subscription service.  You can find out more about subscribing using this link:  Mining Stock Journal.   Currently I am sending out all back issues to new subscribers.

I purchased one of Dave’s stock recommendations from the Mining Stock Journal and its up 88% over the last 30 days. Crazily, I think that stock is still early in the accumulation phase. I wouldn’t buy junior miners without the Mining Stock Journal. The juniors are just too dangerous to purchase without research, experience, and insight. I think big things are on the horizon for PMs and the right juniors are one way to leverage the move. – recent subscriber testimonial

Animal Spirits Are Percolating In The Gold Market

The use of the term “animal spirits” is most commonly attributed to John Maynard Keynes. But it originates from the Latin term, “spiritus animales” in reference to the spirit that drives human thought, feeling and action. We saw animal spirits at work in gold and silver on Tuesday this past week when the Dow dropped 237 points and gold quickly popped up $16. Silver jumped 72 cents, much to Wall Street’s surprise, on March 16th after the FOMC issued its latest monetary policy statement despite an assurance that the Fed would raise rates three more times this year.

At some point the paper control of the gold market is going to fall prey to animal spirits. I think the reaction of the metals after the FOMC policy release and when the Dow plunged are evidence that “animal spirits” are percolating in the precious metals market. (Excerpt from yesterday’s issue of the Mining Stock Journal)

In the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal I review a junior mining stock that was heavily promoted last summer ahead of a big issuance of stock. Many of you may own it thinking you sitting on junior with close to 20 million ounces of gold in the ground. What I found when I examined the background of management and quality of the alleged mineralization on the company’s properties, with no plans for advancing the properties, might shock you. This stock is down 50% from its highs last summer and insiders were dumping shares in September before the stock sold off. This is a stock you want to avoid and you can find out more about it by subscribing:  Mining Stock Journal subscription info.

When I asked a colleague and subscriber who invests in junior mining stocks and participates in select financings if he had an opinion on the above-mentioned company, this was his partial response: “No, I have never looked at it principally because of the people behind it, who are well-known to front run their own subscribers.”

Trump Will Be Great For Gold And Silver (If Nothing Else)

I love days like today when both gold and the dollar are green. Historically, some of the best moves in gold occur as gold and the dollar move up together for short period of time. Today, of course, is just one day. And there’s no question that the Trump Government will need a significantly lower dollar in order to stimulate U.S. industry, assuming the latter is at all possible anymore.

On the other hand, if somehow Trump manages to get Congress to pass his border control and excise tax proposals, consumer prices on the products being imported at prices much lower than the same products can be produced domestically will soar. Let’s not forget, gold loves inflation.

In terms of the fundamentals supporting gold, the Fed’s unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged confirms my suspicion that the likely next move sometime later this year will be some sort of loosening of monetary policy. Consumer liquidity continues to dry up. This is especially evident in the retail sales reports plus the big drop reported for January auto sales.

In addition, various price inflation reports are starting to emerge. On Feb 1st, Bloomberg reported that the Citigroup Inflation Surprise Index, which is a global index that measures price surprises relative to market expectations, is at its highest in more than five years. Even the Government-produced inflation reports in the U.S. have been coming in “hotter” than expected. This is a difficult feat given all of the hedonic adjustments plus other various gimmicks the Government statisticians inflict on the data in order to mute the ability of the index to measure true inflation (note: the manipulation of the CPI was implemented by the Arthur Burns-led Federal Reserve shortly after Nixon closed the gold window – they knew what was coming, which was massive money supply expansion and the resulting price inflation).

In other words, even the Government will be unable to hide fully the effect that trillions of QE and credit expansion is having on consumer prices. This will act as a turbo-booster on the price of gold when this reality eventually grips the capital markets.

In the physical markets, despite China’s week-long closure to observe the Chinese New Year (Year of the Rooster), the eastern hemisphere markets continue to “consume” a lot of physical gold. Premiums all week in India have been high enough to reflect moderate to heavy legal kilo bar importation. Dore bar imports have been flowing steadily for several weeks.  Additionally, Vietnamese were paying $135 over world spot gold, indicating voracious demand.

The latest official Swiss gold export report for December shows that the Swiss exported 154 tonnes of gold to mainland China in December. This was almost four times higher than exports to Hong Kong and more than three times the amount of gold shipped from from HK into China’s mainland. This would be the gold that enters China via Beijing and Shanghai that goes unaccounted for by the World Gold Council and the GFMS data-keepers. Additionally, East and South Asian countries accounted for 87% of Swiss gold exports in December.

Thus, contrary to the popular mainstream financial fake news, China’s appetite for gold remains voracious. Needless to say, all the “stars are aligning” for what could be a spectacular year for the precious metals and mining stocks. Not the least of which is the unpredictability of, and the undefinable nature of, the Trump presidency.

Most of the above commentary was an excerpt from the February 2nd Mining Stock Journal.  In that issue I reviewed five previous names presented, of which three are significantly higher from when the MSJ presented the idea.  Of the other two, one is down about the same amount as the sector since August and the other one is a silver exploration company that is percolating on top of what may turn out to be one of the larger silver deposits in the world in addition to containing large quantities of zinc, lead and gold. I also mentioned an emerging producer that may be acquired before summer.

You can subscribe to the MSJ here:  Mining Stock Journal.  The publication is a bi-weekly newsletter with unique insight on the gold and silver market that also focuses on undervalued junior exploration and emerging producer ideas.  New subscribers, for now, will receive all of the back-issues.

I am a subscriber to both of your journals.  I just want to say “WOW” to this post on your site. Thank you for all your work. As a financial professional of 28 years’ experience, I can tell you why there is no churn in your journal subscriptions. Your work is extremely sound and well done even in a massively manipulated environment.  –  recent email from a subscriber to the Mining Stock and Short Seller Journals

“Gold Is Money – And Nothing Else”

– JP Morgan on December 18, 1912 in testimony to Congress

Crush The Street’s Kenneth Ameduri invited to discuss why I believe the current stock market is the most overvalued in history.  We also chatted about the movement by western Governments to a digital currency system and, of course, the precious metals market.  It’s my view that the pullback in the precious metals sector that began in late July was over by the end of December.  I also believe that there’s good probability that the next move in the sector will be more powerful than the 2016 move.

You can listen to our conversation here:

If you want to have access to my proprietary precious metals market analysis and junior mining stock ideas you can subscribe to the Mining Journal with this link:  MSJ Subscription Link.   The subscription is email-based and new subscribers get all of the back-issues.  The next issue will be published Thursday this week and I have an extraordinarily intriguing high risk / high return, 10-bagger potential stock idea.