Tag Archives: labor force participation rate

Non-Farm Payroll: Economy Is Collapsing

The Government’s “non-farm payroll” report – aka “the employment situation” – reported an alleged 160k jobs added to the economy in April.  I am loathe to even discuss this fairy-tale report out of disdain for ascribing any legitimacy to a complete work of fiction.  It is mind-blowing to me that economic “experts” like Mark Zandi jump on the financial market propaganda networks and attempt to conduct a serious discussion about the numbers (I remember when Zandi was a mediocre analyst for Moody’s – he was hack then and he’s a bigger hack now).

Having swept aside those reservations I want to point out that, of the 160k jobs Untitledallegedly added to the economy in April, the Government whipped up 233k jobs from its “birth/death model” statistical plug metric  (click image to enlarge).  Without this fictitious numerical addition to the overall report, the economy in April lost jobs (the 233k number is pre-seasonal adjustments so it’s not mathematically correct to subtract 233k from the 160k, but it is correct to infer that the pre-birth/death number was negative).

The birth/death model is the Government’s estimate of the number of new businesses that were created in April net of the number of businesses that closed.   There’s not really words available that can describe the absurdity of the B/D model.  I’ll let the reader scan through the numbers in the graphic above to decide whether or not – in the context of every other economic report released in April – if the economy produced enough new businesses to affect the amount of hiring reflected in the Government’s report.

Ironically, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) on Thursday,  expecting the employment report to crush expectations with a number closer to 250,000.  This is despite the fact that Goldman itself has slashed its payroll this year, cutting its fixed income division employment by 10%.  It’s just amazing how fraudulent the entire U.S. system has become.  It would be interesting to see the motivation behind Goldman’s highly misleading research reports, specifically the bank’s jobs forecast and its interminable forecast of sub-$1000 gold.

Please recall that when gasoline prices were falling the story-line pitched by Wall Street was that it would create a big bounce in consumer spending. This big bounce never materialized per retail and restaurant sales reports over the last several months. But also notice that Wall Street and the financial media market promoters are dead silent on the effect that higher gasoline prices will have on the consumer.

The non-farm payroll report with the birth/death model job additions stripped away  – i.e. significant job losses in April – is likely the accurate reflection of the level of economic activity in this country.   This assessment is reinforced and confirmed by the number of recent bankruptcies in the retail and energy sectors.   The 16% plunge in rail traffic during April reported by the Association of American Railroads further confirms this assessment – LINK.  Rail carload traffic reflects the level of business activity at the manufacturing and wholesale distribution level of our economy.   If activity in that sector is collapsing, it means that retail demand in every sector of the economy is collapsing.  Housing is next…


Non-Farm Payroll Reports – The Big Lie: Feed The Pigeons

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State. – Joseph Goebbels, Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda

Think about the psychology behind Goebbel’s statement for a moment. If you are going to tell a lie, make it so outrageous that most people would fall into believing that it’s true because they would not let themselves believe that someone would try to present an extreme lie as the truth. It’s like a modified Stockholm Syndrome mechanism.

Dave , this is so transparent and bad that I am almost rendered speechless and I always have something to say.  – John Embry  in an email exchange

I didn’t bother to watch the American Horror Story presentation of the release of the non-farm payroll report as it was released. I’m not in the habit of turning on the Cartoon Network this early in the morning. But when I saw the headline numbers my response was to laugh out loud.

No sense dissecting the numbers because I’m also not in the habit of spending time analyzing and interpreting complete nonsense. Everyone reading this has seen the analytic dismemberment of the BLS data releases ad nauseum.  After enough iterations, it becomes a boorish waste of time.  I am looking forward to John Williams’ comments later today, of which I’ll share a few snippets.

Kudos to my friend and colleague who predicted how today would unfold almost perfectly. Almost. Even he vastly underestimated the degree to which the BLS would shove a lie in our face. Well, he got the sequence of plays right but he underestimated the size of the Big Lie – this was from Wednesday:

BD model adds 145,000 jobs. NFP for October comes in at 190,000. Mark Zandi gets quoted in every wire service saying it’s a clear indicator of the underlying strength and improvement in the economy. All jump even harder on the consensus December Fed rate hike band wagon. Stock market rips lower and Gold gets hammered to under $1100. Stock market rips at 3:30pm into the Friday close as they force massive short covering into green and Gold goes unchanged on the day.

It remains to be seen if the stock market rips higher by the end of the day. I bet it will. I doubts gold will rally however, at least today. It’s for sure going higher but we might have to wait until the market understands that there will be no rate hike in December and, if anything, more QE is coming.  But the only way to support the Big Lie is keep a lid on the one indicator that would severe the Achilles’ Heel of the Big Lie.

On another note, the homebuilders are getting ripped apart again today. Gee, if so many people found jobs, doesn’t that mean homebuilders will selling more homes? Shouldn’t these stocks being flying? Two of the largest homebuilders have now reported big declines in deliveries in their third quarters through September. But I thought the summer was supposed to be the best period for home sales…bummer dude.

Burst of hiring sends unemployment to 5%!!!!! LOL! This is getting to be such a joke Dave. I’m getting crash fatigue. It’s like the Bataan Death March. Let’s get it over with my God! – blog comment from “Richard”

Non-Farm Payrolls: There’s Not Enough Lipstick In The World To Pretty Up This Pig

Every good lie has to retain an element of truth. If today’s non-farm payroll report is the best possible lie, how bad is the truth?  – Investment Research Dynamics

Well, now we know why they aggressively and blatantly tried to push gold as low as possible this week.  Is this the best they got?

I am not going to discuss the actual details of what was reported in today’s NFP (non-farm payroll report). This serves no purpose other than to imbue the numbers that were reported with some sense of legitimacy.   The numbers are a fairytale and I’m not in the business of engaging in a debate over the “finer points” of fantasy-derived fiction.

Having said that, and given that the August lie was revised lower by 21%…think about that for a moment:   the stock market screamed higher on a number originally reported in September that they decided was incorrect by twenty-one percent…let that sink in for a moment…one has to wonder just how bad the truth is that lies beneath the carefully constructed fiction.  

If you take a paint-scraper to the heavy latex paint applied on top of the facade, just how badly damaged is the underlying structure?

Again, without giving any assent to the validity of the number that was reported, the Government is telling us that the percentage of the population that is “participating” in the labor force is at its lowest rate since 1977.   That is a staggering statistic because in 1977 this country was largely still a one-income producing household. So how catastrophic is the real number? 

Interestingly, after the “number” was reported, the S&P 500 futures embarked on a 40 point reversal from the 10 point gain that the Fed had managed to achieve overnight.  A 40 point reversal that was not just a “flash crash” because it took several minutes to transpire.  Conversely, gold had been pushed lower by Yellen’s gang and it embarked on a $33 dollar upward reversal.

The reason this is interesting is that if this “miss” by a major “economic” report had occurred 3 months ago, the S&P 500 would have spiked up 30-40 points on the “renewed” indication that the Fed would not raise interest rates at the next meeting. Conversely,  gold would have been slaughtered because the only way to smear the lipstick of legitimacy on ZIRP is to make sure gold stays in a dungeon.

Something has changed in the complete character of the market and the Fed’s ability to manipulate it. We saw this a couple weeks ago when the stock market behaved scatologically – and gold shot higher – after the Fed deferred (predictably by me) on hiking Fed funds by even a tiny amount.

The Fed is losing control of a system that is rapidly collapsing from countless skeletons in the closet that have come to life.  Too much debt in every nook and cranny of the U.S. system;  hidden OTC derivatives bombs with lit fuses; impending emerging market sovereign bankruptcies; declining tax revenues and State/local Governments on the verge of insolvency;  a real economy that is in a frenetic downward spiral; the most overvalued stock market in history (when you strip out all the accounting gimmicks piled into what is being reported by S&P 500 America).

Perhaps most frightening is a political system with the wheels coming off.  A good friend and colleague of mine – and someone who was actively involved in politics at one time – commented, after Boehner announced that he was quitting the job he was elected and paid well to do, that he couldn’t recall ever seeing so many “insiders” voluntarily leaving the system (Congressmen, Bernanke, high profile hedge fund managers) as we’ve seen the past couple years.

And now guys like Carl Icahn are openly stating that the system is fake and will sooner or later crash.  This is the guy who got rich off of exploiting and front-running waves of dumb money piling into the the markets (he was an original beneficiary of Drexel Burnham’s junk bond odyssey).

Something really devastating is coming at us in the system.  The insiders see it but we can only see and interpret the smoke signals that are leaking out from the cracks in the Orwellian wall that has been built over the last 40 years which has prevented the herd from seeing the truth.

The best we can hope for now is that the insane neocons running the Department of Defense do not start pushing the wrong buttons as a means of deflecting our attention from a system that is economically, financially, politically and socially collapsing…

Government Jobs Data: Defining Deviance Downward

Your analysis on the June jobs report was posted in the comments section on the WSJ online.  After reading them, I did some more research based on concepts you introduced [to me].  I learned more in the last 90 minutes about the BLS surveys than from the past 12 months of WSJ articles on the topic.  Thanks.  – from “Jim” in his Linked-In connection request

640,000 thousand people leave the workforce but the unemployment rate drops to 5.3%. Only here in this country now can sell that big bag of shit.  20 years ago anyone would have been embarrassed to print that report or laughed out of the meeting room.  – Dave’s NY friend

NY Friend:  Of all the lies you ever told in your days of a junk bond trader, you never told a lie that blatant.  You used to say a good lie contained an element of truth.

Me:  Dude, I only told lies I knew I could get away with.

NY Friend:  We’re back to the 1977 level of employment when one income could support a household.

Here’s the analysis of the jobs report today from my good friend and colleague, John Titus of Best Evidence:

The labor force is defined as people working or looking for work. It’s a solid approximation of the real jobs number, and it’s on the high side because obviously not everyone looking for work is actually working. But if you accept the sunnyside fudge and equate looking for work with actual work, you’ve got a very accurate picture of jobs.

Since Obama took office in January 2009, the U.S. labor force has added 2.827 million people. Obama’s claim of adding 11 million jobs is just a straightjacket-and-electrodes-crazy lie no matter how you cut it.
What is even worse is that those additions to the labor force came from the total pool of people added to the working age population—a pool that has grown by 15.924 million people.
So under this so-called jobs president, an astounding 82.25% of people enter their working age years without working and without looking for work. Think about that number for a second. More than four out of five people who aren’t working or looking for work is grim, worse-than-Great-Depression-ugly, no matter how small the sample is. But the fucking “sample” here is 100% of everyone added to the entire working age population for almost the last 7 years.
Anyone who thinks that what’s happening in Greece can’t or won’t happen here is at best dreaming and more likely unhinged. Based on the real jobs data, it’s guaranteed to happen here.
The the definition of “defining deviance downward.”  The phrase was first used by Senator Danial Patrick Moynihan in the early 1990’s after Clinton had assumed office to describe the willingness of our society to tolerate the rising criminality and fraud in the political and economic system.
Our system is well past the breaking point of recoverability.  I asserted in 2003 that:  “the elitists running our system will hold up the system with printed money and debt certificates for as long as it takes to sweep every last crumb of middle class wealth off the table and into their own pockets.”
We are witnessing the end-game phase of this operation.  For the record, “middle class” is defined as anyone who does not have enough cash laying around to buy their own Congressman, Senator or the Oval Office.  This means anyone reading this who has a few million in the stock market, bonds and a house or two will soon be stripped of that unless they convert that “wealth” into real money.

Non-Farm Payroll: Ignore Headlines – Labor Force Participation Hits New Low

The headlines reported that 223k people found jobs last month.  Of course, you have to read into the details to find out that the 280k report in June for May that caused a parabolic spike in the stock market was revised significantly lower to 254k.  So the stock market was artificially driven up on a fictitious reporting of a fraudulent number.

In fact, 60,000 jobs were removed from what was originally reported over the last two months.

The real story in today’s report is the fact that the labor force participation rate hit a low not seen since October 1977:


Even the Government’s outrageous manipulation of the data and the media’s outrageously bullish spin on the data can’t hide the fact that a record number 93.6 million working age people are NOT in the labor force after 640,000 removed themselves from the pool of people who had been looking for a job.

The birth-death fairy tale threw another 109k into the mix of make-believe jobs that were seasonally-adjusted statistically abused to produce the fictitious jobs reported in the headlines.

The U.S. economic and political system is precariously perched on an insipid foundation of fraud, corruption and debt.  Perhaps most emblematic of this cesspool of waste is the Government’s non-farm payroll report.  It’s nothing but a huge lie which is shamelessly promoted by the media and Wall Street and used by the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team to juice the stock market.

America’s Structural Job Depression Is Here To Stay

My co-producer, John Titus, made a fascinating and stunning statistical discovery discovery buried right in the monthly non-farm payroll statistics.  Regardless of whether the Government numbers are bona fide or fraudulent, it shows why even the data itself shows that the U.S. has been net-net losing jobs since 1992.

We video’d this early Saturday morning so please bear with any presentation issues lol:

It’s not very long and John’s presentation is worth the time spent.

After you see the video, you’ll understand why I believe that the U.S. housing market is about to enter Collapse 2.0. I have a short-sell idea posted in my research section that I think is an easy 60% ROR play over the next 6-12 months:   Research Reports

I think particular report, I show accounting and financial analysis that NO ONE on Wall Street has uncovered or presented.