Tag Archives: MAGA

Make America Great Again: Buy Extremely Overvalued Stocks

Key Economic Data Continues To Show A Recession

The stock market assumed a decidedly bearish tone last week, in the face of apparent domestic political instability, increasing geopolitical tensions and, most important, a continued flow of hard economic data reflecting an economy that is in recession (click image to enlarge).

The SPX declined 3 out of the 4 trading days this last week to close down 1.1% from the previous Friday’s close. It’s down nearly 3% from the all-time high it hit on March 1st. Thursday’s big red bar took the SPX below the 50 dma. On all four days the SPX closed well below its intra-day high. This indicates to me that, at least for now, stock market traders are better sellers. Also of interest, for the first time in seventeen years, the stock market declined the day before the Good Friday market holiday.

The growth in loan origination to the key areas of the economy – real estate, general commercial business and the consumer – is plunging. This is due to lack of demand for new loans, not banks tightening credit. If anything, credit is getting “looser,” especially for mortgages. Since the Fed’s quantitative easing and near-zero interest rate policy took hold of yields, bank interest income – the spread on loans earned by banks (net interest margin) – has been historically low. Loan origination fees have been one of the primary drivers of bank cash flow and income generation. Those four graphs above show that the loan origination “punch bowl” is becoming empty.

HOWEVER, the Fed’s tiny interest rate hikes are not the culprit. Loan origination growth is dropping like rock off a cliff because consumers largely are “tapped out” of their capacity to assume more debt and, with corporate debt at all-time highs, business demand for loans is falling off quickly. The latter issue is being driven by a lack of new business expansion opportunities caused by a fall-off in consumer spending. If loan origination continues to fall off like this, and it likely will, bank earnings will plunge.

But it gets worse. As the economy falls further into a recession, banks will get hit with a double-whammy. Their interest and lending fee income will decline and, as businesses and consumers increasingly default on their loans, they will be forced to write-down the loans they hold on their balance sheet. 2008 all over again.  (The commentary above is an excerpt from the latest Short Seller’s Journal).

Despite the propaganda coming from the media, the housing market is in trouble.  37% of all transactions in 2016 were flips.  A flip double-counts a sale because the house trades twice before it ends up with the end-user.  I would bet that in the $300-$600k price-bucket that close to 50% of all transactions YTD in 2017 have been flips.  This is how the mid-2000’s housing bubble ended.

Today the housing starts report for March registered the biggest drop in four months.  Single family starts plunged 32% in the midwest and 16% in the west.   Both multi-family and single-family starts dropped.  Multi-family is going to be a big problem.  Prices in NYC and Miami are dropping like a rock and vacancies are soaring because of oversupply – just like in 2007.  Apartment rental rates are falling quickly and vacancy rates soaring across all the major MSA’s.   Manufacturing  output plunged in March, likely reflecting bulging car inventories at auto dealers, which are at  a post-2009 high.   OEM auto manufacturers are closing plants and laying off workers.  The latter, no doubt, will miraculously fail to register in the Governments next employment report.

Meanwhile, the stock market continues disconnect from underlying economic reality. Auto, retail and restaurant sales are plunging. The explanation for falling retail sales is simple: real average weekly earnings have dropped two months in a row. The consumer, as I’ve been suggesting, is tapped out on two fronts: disposable income and the capacity to take on more debt.

Despite the obvious intervention in the stock market by the Fed and the Government, via the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, plenty of stocks are tanking. As an example, I recommended shorting Kate Spade (KATE) to my Short Seller Journal subscribers about a month ago at $23.50. The stock is trading at $18 this morning – 23% gain if you shorted the stock and even more if you used puts. You can get in-depth economic and market analysis plus ideas for taking advantage of the most overvalued stock market in U.S. history via IRD’s Short Seller’s Journal. For more information, click here:  Short Seller’s Journal Subscription Information.

The Military Complex Has Taken Control Of The White House

“The astonishing reinvention of Donald Trump:”  Washingtonians are still puzzling at the speed with which the man who promised to “drain the swamp” has come to bask in its approval. In the past 10 days, Mr Trump has belied many of the city’s worst fears. Having promised to launch a trade war with China, Mr Trump is rapidly abandoning his protectionist rhetoric. Likewise, having vowed to avoid foreign wars, he has acquired a sudden taste for Levantine missile launches. And having dismissed Nato as obsolete, Mr Trump is now singing the alliance’s praises. – Financial Times, April 13, 2017

It was just a matter of time before the Deep State got its meat-hooks into Trump.   The move to remove Steve Bannon from the National Security Council and replace him with two Deep State operatives who had been formerly removed from NSC was our signal that the Deep State had restored its control of the Oval Office.  Shortly after that power swap was accomplished, missiles started flying in Syria in response to false flag “gas” attack and the world’s largest non-nuclear bomb was dropped on CIA-built underground tunnels in Afghanistan.

Trump has back-pedaled on every single “plank” in his campaign platform – about as quickly as Obama did after he was inaugurated.  Trump’s geopolitical policies now resemble the same policies endorsed by Hillary Clinton, who is a neocon dressed in drag.

When all else fails, start a war.  The opinion ratings on Trump are plunging, along with the major portions of the economy.  Auto sales are down 10% since the beginning to 2017 and JP Morgan, despite “beating” earnings estimates, disclosed a troubling spike in credit card write-offs, which rose to nearly $1 billion in Q1.  Retail sales have now declined two months in a row.  It’s no coincidence that the dismal sales report was released on Good Friday when the market was closed.  The original .1% gain reported for February was revised down significantly to a decline of .3%.   Restaurant industry sales have declined for 11 of the last 12 months in a row on a year over year monthly basis.

The economy is been fueled on money printing and credit creation for the better part of 40 years.  That artificial stimulation went parabolic in 2009.   The tech and housing bubbles have been reinflated along with every other asset class into an “everything” bubble.  Real weekly earnings have declined two months in a row. The consumer is tapped out on two fronts:  disposable income and the capacity to take on more debt.  Now comes the part where the average household begins to default on the debt it’s taken on over the last 8 years.  Hence the big jump in credit write-offs disclosed opaquely by JP Morgan last week.

Today’s Shadow of Truth discusses the role played by the Deep State in ushering in the inevitable economic collapse of the United States which will lead to the implementation of Totalitarianism and a dystopic political system: