Tag Archives: non-farm payrolls

Non-Farm Payroll: Ignore Headlines – Labor Force Participation Hits New Low

The headlines reported that 223k people found jobs last month.  Of course, you have to read into the details to find out that the 280k report in June for May that caused a parabolic spike in the stock market was revised significantly lower to 254k.  So the stock market was artificially driven up on a fictitious reporting of a fraudulent number.

In fact, 60,000 jobs were removed from what was originally reported over the last two months.

The real story in today’s report is the fact that the labor force participation rate hit a low not seen since October 1977:

LFPR

Even the Government’s outrageous manipulation of the data and the media’s outrageously bullish spin on the data can’t hide the fact that a record number 93.6 million working age people are NOT in the labor force after 640,000 removed themselves from the pool of people who had been looking for a job.

The birth-death fairy tale threw another 109k into the mix of make-believe jobs that were seasonally-adjusted statistically abused to produce the fictitious jobs reported in the headlines.

The U.S. economic and political system is precariously perched on an insipid foundation of fraud, corruption and debt.  Perhaps most emblematic of this cesspool of waste is the Government’s non-farm payroll report.  It’s nothing but a huge lie which is shamelessly promoted by the media and Wall Street and used by the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team to juice the stock market.

Amazon.con: How Much Longer Can AMZN Go On Losing Money?

“We lose money on every sale – but we make up for it in volume” –  Proposed new Wall Street slogan for Amazon’s stock

I did a podcast conversation with Kerry Lutz of Financial Survival Network.  We discussed last Friday’s fraudulent Government jobs report, the highly misleading housing market data published by the various housing market promotional organizations like the National Association of Realtors and the absurdity of Amazon.com’s stock valuation.  You can listen to our discussion using this link below or from Financial Survival Network:

(You download the MP3 module by right-clicking on the bar and clicking on “save as”)

AMZN is probably one of the most overvalued stocks in the stock market right now.  It lost money for the full year in 2014 and is forecasting the likelihood of a massive operating cash flow loss for Q1 2015.  This stock was $40 before QE started in late 2008 and, when reality/gravity reasserts its control over the stock market, I believe this stock will ultimately end up well below $40.  The company’s profitability has deteriorated significantly since 2008 and I prove this in my report.  Not only that, it has recently added the issuance of $9 billion in debt to the mix.   You access my report here:  AMAZON DOT CON.  I also have some specific ideas for using put and call options to help manage market risk or if are not comfortable shorting stocks outright.

bezos_laughing

 

Fake Payroll Report Friday – Ecador’s Gold – The Dollar Is Not In An Uptrend

First, today was the monthly Government non-farm payroll report folly. The best part about is that is gives us the entertainment content of watching CNBC’s Steve Lieman and Mark Zandi make absolute idiots of themselves.

The big media spin is that, supposedly, the economy has finally “recovered” the number of jobs that had been lost 2007. Even if that were true, big deal. If you look at the labor force participation rate, it’s at a 62.8% – a level last observed in early 1978 (Link), which is when most households were still one-worker families. Since 2007, 12.8 million people have disappeared from the labor force (retired, disability insurance, student loans, stopped looking/welfare).  If you factor in population growth, getting back the jobs lost since 2007 is pathetic.  And most of those jobs are lower-paying, temporary, or statistically created by the Government’s “birth/death model.”

As for Goldman Sachs’ hypothecation of Ecuador’s 13 tonnes of gold. Ecuador has 26 tonnes in total. You don’t manipulate the market with 26 tonnes.  China withdraws over 30 tonnes per week from the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Then there’s India. Then there’s Russia. Then there’s Viet Nam (Viet Nam is the 5th largest gold importer in the world – that’s a fact).  Then there’s all the other gold-buying countries.  At least 50 tonnes of gold gets bought every week. This is gold that has to be delivered.

Coincidentally, or not coincidentally, Russia bought 25.5 tonnes in April. My bet is that Goldman may have needed that gold from Ecuador to deliver to Russia.  If not Russia, then to any of the other buyers I mentioned above.  It’s not the Govt of Viet Nam that buys gold. It’s the people. They want the real stuff, not a paper certificate.

Finally, we know the Bank England was missing 1300 tonnes of gold after the April 2013 $200 price takedown.  It takes 1300 tonnes to manipulate the market, not 13 tonnes. Goldman has hypothecated 13 tonnes of gold from Ecuador that Ecuador likely will never see again.

How come no one is asking about the 1500 tonnes of German Govt gold that is missing from the Fed? How come no one is asking about the 1,000+ tonnes of gold that the Italian Govt keeps at the Fed?  Ecuador’s 13 tonnes gets bought and delivered in less than 1/2 a week.

Finally, Zerohedge posted a piece by Charles Hugh-Smith in which he avers that the U.S. dollar is in an uptrend.  He’s wrong.  And it shows the problem with taking geometric shapes from 5th grade geometry and imposing them on the price-charts of things traded in  the financial markets.  Here, have a look:

(click in graph to enlarge)

Untitled

I’m not saying that the U.S. dollar won’t go into an uptrend, but I am saying that it is definitively NOT in an uptrend.  It needs to get over 81.53 before we can start debating “uptrend/no uptrend.”

I would bet against that happening – short of Fed manipulation.  As you can see, the accumulation/distribution line is indicating that the dollar is now being sold in greater quantities than it’s being bought plus the RSI and MACD momentum indicators are rolling over.  You can see the accum/distro line is actually rolling over on a 1-yr chart.

I stopped reading CH-S quite some time ago and that’s an example of why.