Tag Archives: NUGT

No, The Junior Mining Stocks Are Not About To Implode

One of my subscribers sent an article to me that  had been linked on Goldseek.com.  The author laid out a case based on the recent events surrounding GDXJ and JNUG that the junior mining sector would likely “implode.”

I get suspicious about an article when the author repeatedly, with much bravado, makes the claim the he is laying out facts and challenges anyone to present challenges to those “facts.”  Typically that style of writing belies a conspicuous absence of facts.

The author bases his premise that the GDXJ rebalancing and the related suspension of JNUG shares would strangle money available to finance junior mining shares.  Nothing could be further from the truth.

To begin with,  investment capital does not flow into the juniors via GDXJ or JNUG.  GDXJ is a quasi-derivative security that buys the stocks it holds on the secondary market.  It is unequivocally not a capital raising mechanism for companies.   Money flows into juniors directly from investors who buy shares issued by the companies.   I’ve chatted with several junior mining stock CEO’s – true juniors – and they have all said one thing in common: there is a lot of money being made available to the junior mining companies by both large institutional investors and strategic investors.  The rebalancing of GDXJ and the share suspension of JNUG will have zero effect on this.

Too be sure, the author presents some interesting theories about what is happening with GDXJ and JNUG using some charts he presents.   But charts only show facts about the directional moves made by stocks.  They don’t explain why those moves occurred.  The author’s views on why the moves occurred are theories, not facts.   To compound the problem, the author uses a 5-day trading period with which  to draw conclusions.

The short term divergences shown in the chart comparing JNUG to the various leveraged miner ETFs is most likely explained by the fact that some hedge funds/traders got ahold of the GDXJ and JNUG news and decided to front-run the market. Any seasoned market veteran knows that you can’t use just 5 or 6 days of chart data to make inferences about what may or may not be going on behind the scenes with capital flows and trade strategies. The ONLY conclusion we can draw from that chart is that JNUG underperformed the other ETFs over a 5 day period. So what? There could be any number of reasons why this occurred. The front-running explanation is the most likely.

Finally, the author noted that the mining shares suspiciously diverged negatively from the price gains in gold and silver during a few days in February.  He claimed it was something he had never witnessed in 15 years of “pouring over gold, silver and mining charts on a near daily basis.”

Well, that’s the problem.  The author has his head buried in graphs.  He can’t see the forest through the trees.  There’s been several periods of time when the direction of the mining shares and gold/silver diverge over the past 16 years since the bull market in the precious metals sector began.   I have had discussions about this quite frequently with my colleagues over the past 16 years.  There’s any number of explanations for this occurrence. Furthermore,  this trading anomaly was occurring before the existence of any of the mining stock ETFs.

Alternatively, I presented an analysis of JNUG and explained why the suspension of share issuance might actually be a bullish signal for the junior miners in the most recent issue of the Mining Stock Journal.   Furthermore, the juniors remain exceedingly undervalued relative to the entire sector and big institutional investors and large-cap mining companies are validating this with ongoing large capital investments into these companies. Of course, this was the case when the bull market began in 2000/2001 as well – before mining stock ETFs were even in the planning stages…

Is It Time To Buy More Junior Mining Stocks?

That is an impossible question to answer with any degree of conviction because the extreme degree to which the precious metals market is manipulated.   I think now is a good spot to add to positions or start new positions.  As an example, in my latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal, I recommended a high quality junior that had almost pulled back to its 200 dma.  I said I was buying it for what I thought would be a “low risk” 25-40% bounce if the pullback cycle in  the sector is over.  That stock bounced 7% today.

A good way to protect yourself somewhat is to find high quality junior mining companies that are exceedingly cheap to their underlying “intrinsic” value.  I presented a company in the latest MSJ issue that, despite a big move already, has the potential to be a 5-bagger from here.  Insiders control 44% and put in millions of their own money over the last 5 years to keep the Company going.  This Company is on its way to becoming very significant mining company.

Today I sent around to subscribers an update of a stock previously presented because the Company announced an acquisition of an existing operational mine and is paying roughly $20/oz for proved gold in the ground.  This company is “off the radar screen” but Goldcorp just paid over $100/oz in the ground for Kaminak.  This acquisition will be the catalyst that enables management to build a 200-250k oz gold producing operation by 2019.  It’s market cap is mining-stock-journal-bannerwell under $100 million.  Companies that produce 200-250k ozs/year trade in the $200 million to $400 million market cap range.  You do the math on this Company…

You can subscribe to the Mining Stock Journal and get the current issue, the current update and all the back-issues (March 4th debut) by clicking here:   MSJ Subscription.

Are The Mining Shares Rolling Down The Runway?

If anyone has been watching the trading action of the mining sector, they’ll notice that the “character” of the action has changed since the end of December.  The way I expressed it to my fund partner the other day:  “Rather than shorting the rallies and covering the sell-offs, it’s time to start going long on the sell-offs and taking profits on the rallies” (while keeping a core position intact, of course).

It’s easiest to see this point illustrated using JNUG, the 3x leveraged junior gold miners index ETF.  JNUG has carved out a nice rounded bottom and appears to be grinding higher. The entire sector is behaving like this, but it’s easiest to see it visually using a 3x ETF graph:

JNUG

Today is a perfect example, as the mining sector was hammered from the opening NYSE bell, with JNUG trading down over $3 from yesterday’s close (roughly 9.5%) to $30.15.  It’s rallied back close to $34, up nearly 1% now.  This trading action has been fairly consistent.

What’s even more striking, and something I had not really paid attention to until today, was the massive volume that has been occurring on a daily basis since early November.  This is the unmistakable of the last of the weak hands puking out their positions and the smart, patient money accumulating the shares.

I’m the first to admit that I’ve made so incorrect bottom calls on this sector since last summer.  But then again, is there anyone out there who can say they’ve succussefully been able to predict the direction of any highly manipulated market?   Having said that, I believe that the mining stocks may be rolling down the runway, preparing for a lift-off…

Putting The Current Gold/Silver Market In Proper Perspective

Follow the money.   My friend and colleague, Nick of DenaliGuide’s Summit blog has done a short video to explain why the current trading action in gold and silver – although seems quite bearish – is really a non-event.   The goal is to help ease everyone of the oppressive negative sentiment the has engulfed the precious metals investing community.

Some Nick’s “hidden” talking points include the fact that:

1)   gold and silver bottomed in last June 2013
2)  June 1st this year:   gold is up almost 3%, silver is up just over 3%;  GDX is up almost 20%

Sure doesn’t feel like the precious metals sector has had positive returns this year, does it?

Please take 2 minutes to watch Nick’s informative video:  Market Sentiment Belies The Numbers.  (Samples of Nick’s T/A research, which I use, are linked at the top of the blog)

Perhaps what’s most interesting can be seen in this graph from Nick (click to enlarge):

STEALTHshockCNP (2)

This shows the GDX index since mid-June.  As we know, gold and silver rallied along with the GDX into mid-July and have largely retraced nearly back to their June 1 starting prices. BUT, the mining stocks have been marking time in a sideways pattern.  The black line on the graph shows the amount of “stealth” accumulation that is occurring on every down-tick in the mining shares.  I have noticed this as I watch the tape every day, but this graph illustrates it.  The message:  SMART MONEY IS ACCUMULATING MINING SHARES.

I have several mining stock ideas here:   IRD Research Reports

My “Huge Upside” idea has pulled back on zero news.  I added some to the fund I manage today.  My “Short Term Trade/Long Term Investment” idea is back above my recommendation level.  I expect it to outperform going forward, assuming the precious metals sector starts trending higher.