Tag Archives: petro gold

A Collapsing Dollar Will Trigger The Next Big Move In Gold And Silver

When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you–when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice–you may know that your society is doomed. – from “Atlas Shrugged”

Sorry MAGA-enthusiastics, it’s all a lie.  The tax legislation just passed will lead to higher Government spending deficits, a near-parabolic acceleration in Government debt issuance and a possible collapse of the dollar.  The U.S. is in systemic collapse.  Perhaps the biggest manifestation of this is the grand money-grab by the elitists enabled by blatant political corruption.

Alasdair Macleod published an essay that I highly recommend reading as you gather together your thoughts heading into 2018. 2018 will possibly see the next stage in the collapse of the dollar. I disagree with Alasdair’s attributing the control over the formation and implementation of economic and geopolitical policy to Trump. Notwithstanding this disagreement,  I believe Aladair’s analysis of monetary events unfolding during 2018 deserves careful perusal.  This includes his delineation of the rise in the petro-yuan as a precursor to the demise of the dollar, an acceleration of dollar-derived price inflation and an escalation in the price of gold.

The general public in the West is hardly conscious of these developments, only being vaguely aware that more and more products seem to be imported from China. They are certainly not aware that America has already lost its position as the world’s policeman, the guarantor of economic freedom and democracy, or whatever other clichés are peddled by the media. And only this week, President Trump in releasing his National Security Document, and pledging “America would reassert its great advantages on the world stage”, showed the American establishment is similar to a latter-day Don Quixote, unaware of the extent of change in the world and the loss of its power.

Like a monetary embodiment of Cervantes’ tilter at windmills, the world’s reserve currency is rapidly becoming an anachronism. And for China to realise her true destiny, it must dispense with dollars, and if in the process it crushes them, then so be it.

You can read the rest of Macleod’s brilliant essay here:   2018 Could Be The Year For Gold

Contrary to the views expressed by recent crypto-currency proselytizers, I believe that if gold heads higher in the next year then silver will soar.

Oil For Gold – Real Or Imagined?

By having control of the physical market for gold, China can threaten to use it to destabilize the dollar, without destabilizing the yuan. As such, it is potentially devastating, and used carelessly could trigger an economic collapse in Western capital markets, wreaking financial and economic havoc in America and other advanced nations. China will never be wholly independent from trade with these nations, and severe financial and economic damage to the advanced economies will rebound upon her to some extent. For this reason, she has so far held off using gold as an economic and financial weapon, while she continues to insulate herself from periodic crises in Western economies.   – Alasdair Macleod (Oil For Gold)

In response to questions about when China would finally cast aside the dollar and run the price of gold up, I’ve always replied that China would be shooting itself in the foot if it tried to replace the dollar too quickly.  Don’t forget, China holds about $1.2 trillion in the form of Treasuries. Note: this ratio does not include the market value of its gold holdings, the actual amount of which is unknown outside of a small circle of Chinese officials.

When the idea of a gold-backed yuan-denominated oil futures contract surfaced, it became en vogue for those unable to analyze their way  out of a paper bag to issue commentary refuting the idea.  For some, if an event has not already occurred, they are unable to “see” it.

This article from Alasdair Macleod is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the path leading up to the ability to convert oil sold in yuan or gold by China’s largest oil suppliers.  Judging by the various recent oil trading and gold trading agreements between Russia and China, the conversion of oil sales into gold  may well be already occurring in a two-stage process between Russia and China.

The purpose of this article is to put the proposed oil for yuan contract, which has been planned for some time, into its proper context. It requires knowledge of the history of how China’s policy of internationalising the yuan has been developed, and will be brought up to date with an analysis of how the partnership of China and Russia is taking over as the dominant power over the Eurasian land-mass, a story that is now extending to the Middle East. To read the rest click here: Oil For Gold – Macleod

While Alasdair does not overtly acknowledge the idea of a gold-backed oil contract coming from China, I would argue that the article about a gold-yuan oil futures contract  in the Nikkei Asian Review – a highly regarded publication – was likely floated intentionally by the Chinese Government. If you read through Alasdair’s article, it’s difficult not to come away with the impression that China has been methodically and patiently putting together the pieces to support the ability to convert oil sold China – benchmarked by the yuan – ultimately into gold.

Yes, the fact that China does not currently permit gold to be removed from China in large quantities needs to be addressed.  Analysts using this to refute the oil/yuan/gold notion seem to conveniently overlook the fact that regulations can be revised.  I would suggest that “footprints in the snow” are leading to this eventuality. It’s now possible to sell oil to China in dollars or rubles or rials then  convert the proceeds into offshore yuan and buy gold in China’s Free Trade Zone.  As Alasdair himself points out:  “Gold futures contracts in yuan are now available to international dealers in Hong Kong and Dubai using the SGE gold price as benchmark.”

Furthermore, the Commercial Bank of China (State-owned) is the sponsor of a gold futures contract offered by the London Metals Exchange.  Seems pretty obvious that an oil seller can ultimately convert the proceeds of oil sold to China into gold using three transactions.  Why not consolidate that process into one contract?  I would suggest that a gold-backed yuan-denominated oil futures contract is inevitable.  Just maybe not one the timeline preferred by the western gold investing community.