Tag Archives: Short Seller’s Journal

The Ongoing Global Financial Markets Collapse

Video courtesy of Eric Dubin’s The News Doctors

Remember the economic catch phrase, “when the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold?” The idea being that the U.S. is the economic engine of the world and if the U.S. economy tanks, the global economy tanks.   The current “vogue” in the financial media is to blame the incipient  melt-down in global stock markets on China’s move to devalue its currency.

But nothing could be further from the real truth.  China’s devaluation process may well be the proverbial “straw breaking the camel’s back.” However the real causation of the global economic meltdown is a result of the world’s fiat-currency-based Central Banking system losing the ability to control the natural market forces which are acting to destroy the financial market bubbles and economic excesses that have been allowed to breed since the dollar became the global reserve currency.

The reasons that the U.S. stock market looks like it may be starting to collapse are both simple and complicated.  Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke of the TF Metals Report and I discussed some of the real factors which have conflated to “prick” the global financial/economic bubble:  stocks, bonds, real estate, derivatives, paper currencies – anything connected catastrophically to the global paper fiat currency “Frankenstein” that was born with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1947.

You can listen to our conversation here:   TF Metals Report or by clicking below:

This graph is part of our conversation in which we discuss why the sell-off in the U.S. stock and credit markets may be attributable to  an unwinding of the yen/yuan carry trade – Untitledwhich no one on Wall Street/CNBC/Bloomberg/etc has mentioned:

Note that the yen has appreciated significantly more than the dollar vs. the yuan since China’s currency deval began.  How come no one on Wall Street is discussing this?

My latest issue of the Short Seller’s Journal will be released Sunday evening.  You can subscribe by clicking here:  Short Seller’s Journal   This week will feature a section which outlines a strategy and the pros/cons for using put options to replicated shorting a stock.

Amazon.com: Has The Bubble Finally Popped?

It’s good to no longer be a lone voice in the wilderness.  This latest commentary on the insane overvaluation of Amazon stock comes from Bill Bonner of Agora Research by way of the Acting Man blog:

Every AMZN bear has been made to look like an idiot – but that may soon change. As David Stockman recently pointed out, those who actually take the time to properly analyze its slippery accounting and business model (not the dead fish employed by the sell-side, obviously) cannot help but conclude that it is a giant Ponzi scheme – and the danger that this realization will penetrate the “market mind” is increasing. It remains a “river of no returns” – although consumers have every reason to love it. Investors buying it today pay 830 times net earnings for the stock – and said net earnings actually look somewhat dubious upon closer inspection.

Interestingly, a lot of AMZN critics still insist on describing AMZN as company that generates “cash flow.”  But, as my AMAZON dot CON report details, the metric being describe as “cash flow” comes from Bezos’ own quarterly earnings presentations in which he references “free cash flow.”

For those of us who bother to scour the footnotes of AMZN’s SEC filings, we find that AMZN discloses that its “free cash flow” metric does not conform to GAAP accounting standards. But I take that disclosure in my report and show, with details from AMZN’s financials, why the term “free” in reference to “cash flow” is highly misleading.  In fact, over the last two years the cash used by AMZN to “invest” in its business model has come largely from debt issuance and from gift card and Prime membership deposits.

Amazon Prime?  Bezos admitted about a year ago that Prime loses a couple billion, a fact confirmed by one analyst in July but ignored by everyone:  LINK.  The idea behind Bezos’ strategy is to do whatever it takes to generate sales growth.  The stock price soars when it looks like AMZN is growing rapidly.   However, as my report details with direct evidence from the financials, revenue growth is required in order for AMZN to pay its expenses.  In other words, the only way AMZN stays afloat is if “cash in” exceeds “cash out.”  That’s the definition of a Ponzi scheme.  AND, as a matter of fact, as I show in my report, AMZN has stretched out its accounts payables over the last few years.  This is a trick companies use in order to slow down the rate at which they pay their bills.  If revenues begin to decline, AMZN will hit the wall – quickly.

As I state in the introduction sent to new subscribers of my Short Seller’s Journal, it is impossible to time the top in AMZN.  But once it rolls over, it will drop quickly.   You might miss the move from $600 to $400, you can ride it from $400 to $100 or lower.  AMZN ran from $300 to almost $700 in less than a year.  It can easily complete that roundtrip in even less time.

There’s probably a core level of operations that can be a profitable business. But it is nowhere near the level that generates the current $100 billion of revenue.  AMZN spends at least $1 to generate every $1 of revenue.  That core level of potential profitability would likely imply a fundamental value per share well below $50.

I would not necessarily rush out and short AMZN right now.  It will probably start to move higher into its earnings report on January 28 (after the market close).  I have a feeling that Bezos will pull out all the stops to manufacture an earnings report that beats consensus estimates and the stock will gap up again as all the hedge funds that piled in short this week scramble to cover.  THAT is when you want to start pulling the trigger on shorting the stock.  My AMAZON dot CON report will help you prepare for that.

The Financial Markets Are One Big Cartoon Network

It seems to never end.  The markets do the opposite of what would be expected based on common sense and on undeniable evidence about the fundamentals.   Just this morning, for instance, the S&P 500 pops up overnight and then promptly goes red after the NYSE opens. Then one of the Fed sock-puppets makes a comment about oil bottoming and the S&P 500 takes off like Roman candle.  Overnight gold was also up about $4.  A report hit the tape that some of the ECB members wanted more money printing.  Money printing is a fundamental event that should send gold inexorably higher.  Instead, gold was slammed $10 as soon as the news item hit the tape.

This drool that is served up from the policy makers and political leaders in the U.S. is nothing short of a laughable insult to our collective intelligence.  But, then again, it would seem that this country has slid down that slippery slope into idiocy.   I received this email from a colleague who is an investment advisor.  He’s one of the few that understand what is happening in this country.  Clearly his clients have been mesmerized by the clown show:

I can’t tell you how many times I have been in meeting with investors and explained common sense truths, only to have their eyes completely glass over.  Usually, they immediately proceed to ask me about Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google.  People really are that clueless.  One of my clients, that owns PHYS, told me he really didn’t want any more than 10% gold and wanted me to look at cloud computing stocks.

I had another client leave me recently because we had an allocation to gold, cash and stocks.  They went to Fidelity and purchased 4 growth funds and long term bonds.  They told me that Fidelity was a bigger company and they were bullish stocks.  I laughed myself to sleep that night and watched their account fall 8% the first week of 2016.

It is totally insane how clueless your average person with investable assets is.  I can’t even imagine how insanely ignorant the people that are that live paycheck to paycheck.  It’s truly scary because those people really and truly believe it’s the rich that keep them poor and they believe the government is their only ally.

When the day finally comes that gold is recognized as real money your average person is going to be totally shocked.  I have a feeling they will blame everyone and everything other than themselves and the good old government.

The hardest part about being a retail advisor is when you first understand that people, even smart people, can’t accept that their beliefs are misguided.  People will take it hard when it happens.

I leave you with a final quote I heard years ago:  “If what you knew to be true turned out not to be true; when would you like to know about it.”  Unfortunately, for most people, they only want to know when it is too late!

Jim Quinn, of The Burning Platform, with whom I often share email chuckles over what’s unfolding in this country, has written a concise commentary titled, “Maybe Valuations Do Matter,”  which encapsulates the essence of the madness into which our system has lapsed:

I wonder if the brainless twits and shills on CNBC will be telling their audience that the S&P 500 is now lower than it was in May 2014. That’s right. Anyone in the stock market over the last 20 months hasn’t gained a penny. The S&P 500 is now down 11% from its all-time high in May 2015. Only 40% or 50% more to go to reach fair value.

He concludes that that the stock market needs to drop at least 50% to be fairly valued.  I have not had a chance to probe him on this, but I suspect his non-public number is closer to my number:   80%.   We were on that path in 2009 until the Fed and Obama bailed out the banks in order to enable them to continue sucking wealth out of the system.

The latest contrarian editorial “vogue” is to refer to the recent .25% nudge in the Fed funds rate as “a policy mistake.”  Sorry, that’s not even remotely close to the truth.  The policy error committed in this country was preventing the markets in 2008/2009 from doing what they will eventually do anyway.   And EVERYONE will end up paying for that mistake.

Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing. (Macbeth, Act 5 scene 5)

December Retail Sales? Expect More Census Bureau Fairy Tales

The Government releases its retail sales report for December this Friday.   The Census Bureau is the front-man for this report, which means that we can expect something that conforms to the highest standards of statistical manipulation.

But the truth is, we already know based on data released by private-sector entities that retail sales in December, and for the entire fourth quarter, were a disaster.  Six days ago, Macy’s announced that its comp store sales dropped 4.7% in November and December vs. those two months in 2014.  Recall that the Government reported that retail sales actually fell nearly 1% in December 2014.  In addition, Macy’s slashed another 3,000 employees.

I just finished perusing the Cass Freight Index Report for December.  It showed that freight shipments in December dropped 5% vs. November and 3.7% vs. December 2014.  This would include goods transported by train, truck, ship or plane.   The reason freight shipments decline is because orders from retailers decline.  The reason orders from retailers decline is because consumer demand has declined and inventories are high.

We don’t need a bunch of Census Bureau flunkies to tell us how retail sales fared in UntitledDecember – this graph from the Fed based on data compiled by a non-Government organization sums it up – click to enlarge:

This graph shows the year over year change in the ISM backlog of orders index.  This graphic reflects a rather sharp decline in consumer spending since May 2015.

Finally, we know that auto sales dropped 5% in December and were way below consensus estimates.  As Bloomberg describes in reference to the auto sales report last week:  “an ominous indication for December retail sales…Vehicle sales make up about 1/5 of total retail sales and the weakness here will make it hard for December to show any lift.”

Bloomberg was uncharacteristically candid in its assessment.  Typically Bloomberg will apply a heavy dose of “spin” when an economic report falls well short of expectations.   I do believe, however, after the steaming pile of smelly brown stuff that the Census Bureau threw at us with its non-farm payroll report, that we can expect an  encore performance of scatological proportions this Friday when the December retail sales report is released.

And that’s fine with me.  One of my short-sell ideas that will presented in Sunday’s Short Seller’s Journal weekly report is going to be a retailer.  It would be ideal if the retail stock sector experiences a nice bounce on Friday in order to improve the entry price for shorting this particular stock.   You can sign up here for this report:  Short Seller’s Journal. 

Rob from the Netherlands:  I loved your latest SSJ report. Especially THE weekly shorts performed wonderful. Easy to read even for non-native speakers and non-financial educated people. Not only do you provide clear entry information but more important to me how and when to sell/ take profit on THE trade. Indeed you are one of few bringing shorts to the attention of the retail investor.

 

Rail Freight Shipments Are Collapsing

The pundits can disingenuously blame the crashing Baltric Dry Index  on container ship overcapacity and find some dopes to believe that fairy tale, but there’s only one explanation for collapsing rail freight shipment volume in the United States:  the consumer has finally suffocated from too much debt and declining real income.

We believe rail data may be signaling a warning for the broader economy,” the recent note from Bank of America says. “Carloads have declined more than 5 percent in each of the past 11 weeks on a year-over-year basis. While one-off volume declines occur occasionally, they are geUntitlednerally followed by a recovery shortly thereafter. The current period of substantial and sustained weakness, including last week’s -10.1 percent decline, has not occurred since 2009.  – Bank of America brain trust

 

Eric Dubin of The News Doctors brought this article to my attention:  Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy

I’d like to point out that the price of oil is collapsing.  It will soon be in the $20’s.  Several Wall Street fraud shops have decided that oil is headed to $20.  I made that call 6 months ago.  Oil is the economy’s canary in the coal mine that the Fed can not remove before it dies.  Rail freight traffic is the canary’s twin brother.

I hope everyone is braced for impact because the system is in for a much bigger shock than occurred in 2008/2009…and the Fed is out of bullets – just ask former Fed President Richard Fisher…

Shorting Alpha: Short Seller’s Journal Update

Subscribers to my Short Seller’s Journal who took advantage of the two ideas presented in the latest weekly issue are up 11.7% on the long term short-sell play and 13.6% on the “Quick Hit” idea.  The option play I recommended is up 135%.  In comparison, the S&P 500 is down 4.8% this week.     Short Seller’s Journal

The long term short-sell play is an extremely overvalued stock that offers a way to short SubscriptonGraphicWall Street.   The “Quick Hit” idea was stock that ran up last for absurd reasons and I thought would sell off a lot more than the market this week if the market was weak.  It is also insanely overvalued but was suggested as a one week trade.

 

The Federal Reserve’s Salvation Army School Of Economics

When gold finally breaks out of the Banks’ grip you won’t be able to chart its moves fast enough. It is being smothered by a blanket of undeliverable derivatives, and the realization and reckoning of this overhang will be nothing short of spectacular, a sort of 2008 in reverse.  -“Jesse” of Jesse’s Cafe Americain in an email exchange

I wasn’t going to write a general New Year’s post but Bill “Midas” Murphy emailed me wondering why I was quiet.  The truth is I was spending this morning hunting down a new pair of tennis shoes because New Balance redesigned the model I’ve been using for the past three years and it no longer works for me.  It’s very distressing.

I’m not getting excited about the metals until gold really starts to move – as in shoots up into the mid-1000’s.  China/India/Russia combined imported over 3,000 tonnes in 2015.  Global production was likely around 2400-2500 tonnes. How are the sellers of this gold making deliveries?  Hemingway said that you broke slowly then suddenly.  The same dynamic will apply to the initial spike up in gold. Gold is being inexorably held down by fraudulent paper derivatives.

I believe the inability of the banks to fulfill the $800 gold prophecies of Wall Street and newsletter charlatans is because the elitists are slowly losing control of their ability to cap gold with paper. I also am confident that we will wake up one day this year and discover that the price of gold has suddenly spiked up a lot higher.  Slowly, then suddenly.  People not on that ride will be left in bewilderment, wondering “what happened?”

I don’t see how the global financial system will get even halfway through 2016 without a major destructive earthquake.  Oil alone has to be causing derivatives problems that, for now, are being contained and hidden from sight.

I assume you saw the big drop in auto sales for December yesterday.  The number was way below Wall St. estimates.  Wall St estimates in general are substantially above where economic data will start coming in this year, telling us that expectations “baked into the cake” are way too high.

Housing is going to follow auto sales down the rabbit hole to hell.  Over the last three years the banks have been stuffing middle America with subprime quality mortgage, auto and student loan debt. The mortgage products used to inflate the primary housing bubble have been reconstituted, repackaged, re-branded and re-stuffed into a large body of homebuyers who will not be able to afford them before long.

In fact, a significant portion of the mortgage market that was filled by Countrywide and Wash Mutual back in the primary housing bubble is now being filled by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA – i.e. the Taxpayer – with their 0-3% down payment mortgages being made available to people with sub-600 credit scores and, in many cases, to people with no credit scores or income accountability.  Old wine, new bottle. At some point the space into which this junk can be stuffed runs out.  It has likely already run out.

I’ve asserted since 2003 – when I started to get my mind around what was happening in this country to our financial, economic and political system – that eventually the U.S. would incite a world war.  One of the primary motivations would be to cover up what the Fed/Govt has done not only with the U.S. gold, but also with the foreign custodial gold.  Let’s face it, the ONLY reason the Fed did not honor Germany’s repatriation request is because the Fed did not have the gold in its possession to send it back.  What’s so hard to figure out about that?  At some point I expect to see the NATO bond fractured. When that happens and Germany splits from U.S. and gravitates toward Russia, it will demand the return of its gold. What then? That is how wars start.

Perhaps the greatest show on earth is watching these buffoons that society has labelled “Federal Reserve Officials” attempt to make a mockery of our collective intelligence threatening us with higher interest rates and extolling the virtues of the economic recovery.   What recovery?  Every single non-Government economic report is showing that economic activity has dropped down to or below the level of economic activity that was occurring during the 2008-2009 time period.  Some metrics are worse.

How about the Baltic Dry Index?   It’s at an all-time low.  Everyone wants to blame that on China.  But guess what?  Europe and the U.S. are China’s #1 and #2 export destinations.  The only reason the Baltic Dry Index has plunged like this is because import orders from the EU and the U.S. have plunged.  Put the BDI in the context of the collapsing price of oil, and it represents two primary metrics of global economic activity, the U.S. economy being the 2nd largest economic engine of the world.  Fed Reserve official John Williams looks like an absolute idiot when he asserts that the U.S. economy is “in very good shape.”  Where do they get these people – The Salvation Army School of Economics?

It’s hard to not get really depressed when you see and understand the truth.  And the problem is, once you see the truth, you can’t un-see it.  My resolve is to have as much fun as I can, while I can.  This gigantic Ponzi-bubble otherwise known as the United States could pop at any time and there will be nothing to prevent that inevitability. Then it will be impossible to have any fun.

More On The Amazon Spin-Machine

Jeff Bezos’ greatest business trick is his ability to spin the illusion that AMZN is a money-making machine.  In fact, AMZN is remarkable  sales-generating machine,but it costs the Company more than a dollar to generate a dollar of sales.Bezos1

All of a sudden in 2015 AMZN had become a cloud computing services phenomenon.  The last two earnings report showed a rate of growth in its AWS business and the stock rocketed higher.  Of course no one seemed to care that outright the AWS business represents less than 10% of AMZN’s total revenues.  And of course nothing is ever mentioned about the quality of AMZN’s AWS-derived sales.

The truth is, and Bezos never discusses this, that the majority of AMZN’s AWS contract revenue comes from Silicon Valley unicorns.  Most, and maybe all, of them will not be around in a few years.  Here’s an accounting of this from someone besides me:

I would like to introduce a meme before the sell side or buy side catches on.  As you know AMZN was up 100% this year as Bezos revealed the AWS business to the world.  The meme is this: AWS growth is unsustainable.  Not only is it unsustainable I predict that the sell side forward revenue growth rate for AWS will  go to zero or negative by Christmas next year.   It has come to my attention that 50% of AWS growth comes from start ups and my guess is that the majority of those dollars are Unicorns.  AMZN has been an indirect beneficiary of QE largess.  The Fed’s easy money created a bubble in VC funded start ups.  That funding peaked this year and is now in decline as the Unicorn bubble is bursting.  I expect this bubble to unravel fast as we are in the part of the cycle where the capital markets shut down for companies burning cash.  –  AMZN:  The Ghost Of XMAS Yet To Come

My AMAZON dot CON report goes into further detail about the problems with Amazon’s AWS business modelAMZNnew and why, at some point, the market value being assigned to the part of AMZN’s business model will likely largely evaporate this year.

If The Fed Has Lost Control, Will The Government Impose More Control?

I stand by my prediction that 2016 is going to be a horrible year for the world in general. I am a great fan of both David Stockman and Paul Craig Roberts and if you conflate their views the world is going to be a disaster economically, financially and geopolitically.  – John Embry (email conversation this past weekend)

I find it fascinating that, sometime between the close of trading on December 31st and the start of trading in 2016, the JP Morgan’s equity Einsteins all of a sudden decided that the stock market “might” be overvalued.  Per Zerohedge, JPM released a strategy report suggesting that the new robo-trading trading them in 2016 might be “selling any rallies.”

But what changed?   The stock market has been overvalued for several years.  It was still overvalued from a strict fundamental standpoint when the S&P 500 bottomed out at 666.79 in early 2009.   It has been insanely overvalued for the better part of the last three years.  No one could see that until Sunday night?  All of a sudden JP Morgan has decided that “equities are not attractively priced anymore?”

I suggested in my blog post this past weekend that Thursday’s Fed funds event might be indicative that the Fed is losing control over the markets – Is The Fed Losing Control?  I’m wondering if what happened on Thursday with Fed funds rate contained more predictive power than any of us imagined possible…

I opened up the latest issue of my Short Seller’s Journal with this comment:

The current stock bubble is now about 30% bigger than the previous two bubble tops – 2000, 2007. One difference between now and the last two bubble peaks is that the underlying fundamentals are significantly worse now. Just one example is the amount of Government debt outstanding. At the 2000/2007 peaks, Treasury debt as a percent of GDP was 55% and 57%, respectively. Currently, Treasury debt as a percent of GDP is 109%. Keep in mind that the Government also now guarantees FNM/FRE debt, which would add another $7 billion, roughly, to the $18.8 trillion in Treasury debt.

The point here is that the “gravitational pull” from the underlying fundamentals will eventually override the Fed/Government’s ability to keep the stock market propped up.

My feature stock of the week is down 4% today vs. 2% on the S&P 500.  My “Quick Hit” idea is down 6%.

Why all of a sudden JP Morgan (and others) have decided that the stock market is overvalued today but it wasn’t last Thursday is beyond me.  The excesses and insanity that culminated in the brief financial system collapse in 2008 are even bigger and more pervasive now.

Quietly AAPL stock is now down 23% from its all-time high in 2015.  Doesn’t this mean that AAPL is in a “bear market?”  If AAPL were continuing to hit new all-time highs the financial media would be in our face with the virtues of the iPhone and stoking anticipation for AAPL’s next product flop introduction.

I don’t know if today’s early morning action in the stock market will be another “false flag” gap down followed up by a massive rally in the last hour of trading.  We’ve seen this “movie” several times overUntitled the last year, as the S&P 500 forms what appears to be a massive rollover – click image to enlarge.

What I find horrifying – and what is getting lost in the shuffle of today’s market activity – is that fact that Obama is getting ready to flex the muscles of dictatorial control with his threat to issue an Executive Order mandating gun control.  Doesn’t anyone remember that Obama is the guy who based part of his 2008 platform on reversing all of the Unconstitutional Executive Orders executed by Bush and who promised to reduce or eliminate the use of EOs?   Anyone remember?  Anyone?   I remember vividly.

My point here is that as the Fed loses control of the financial markets, I fully expect that the Government will impose tighter Totalitarian control over the country.  I also expect that the populace will rollover and say “thank you, may I have another?”

China turned off its markets after its stock market dropped over 7% last night.  Everyone with whom I’ve discussed this today has expressed disdain.   But the U.S. Government has imposed the ability to implement the same shut down in a limit-down move.  Why has this not shocked everyone?   The duplicity of Americans, even highly educated ones, is incorrigible – if not completely tragic.

All of the highest beta, highest p/e and most overvalued stocks relative to their true underlying fundamentals are getting shellacked today.  AMZN is down nearly 6% and NFLX is down nearly 7%.  The homebuilders are down 2.5-4% across the board.  It’s going to be a profitable year for those who take the leap into the world of shorting stocks.  My Short Seller’s Journal is, up to now at least, a unique publication that focuses on ideas for shorting the market. I also offer risk management advice and include some ideas for using options.  It’s a monthly subscription with weekly reports delivered to your email.  You can access this subscription here:  Short Seller’s Journal.

Profit From The Greed And Stupidity Of Others

History is about to repeat itself.  The tide of liquidity is slowly drifting out and this cycles frauds and scams will reveal themselves soon.  Look to companies that rely on the capital markets to fund their growth as Wall Street is a willing accomplice in looking the other way due to the fees collected.  – Enron Memories:  A Cautionary Tale

I would again urge everyone to go see “The Big Short.”  I plan on going to see it again.  The on-screen rendition is that powerful and well-acted.   It explains in “layman” terms what happened.  For those who put their thinking cap on, the movie explains why what happened is happening again – in a re-packaged form.

While everyone is focused on Amazon’s news report that it added 3 million subscribers in the 3rd of December and had record package shipments this holiday season, causing the stock to pop up despite the sell-off in the S&P 500, I am focused on the truth.  Of course AMZN had 3 million Prime subscribers right before Christmas.  Why?  AMZN was offering a one-month free trial to Prime.  If you had not shopped yet for Christmas and had 2-day free shipping dangled in front of you – for free – of course you’re going to sign up.

Let’s see the “churn and burn” rate for the people who have subscribed to the free-trial promotion.  I can guarantee you that AMZN will not publish those numbers.

Record shipping?  Economic theory teaches us that when something has no cost, demand is infinite until saturated.  I know people in NYC who bought toilet paper and paper towels from AMZN because free delivery is cheaper than taking a cab to the grocery store.  And who wants to schlep big armloads for grocery supplies around the streets of NYC?

Markets become irrationally overvalued because, in general, people have a tendency to overprice “hope” and “optimism.” It’s human nature to deny the negative side of reality. As a result, the market tends to “under-price” the probability of a negative outcome. This dynamic presents opportunity for those willing to examine the truth.  – Short Seller’s Journal

What is missed on this is that AMZN loses money on its Prime membership business.  It has admitted this.  But the push up in the stock price greatly benefits Jeff Bezos, as he automatically unloads 100,000’s of shares every month.

I will have a lot more to say about AMZN and the retail sales report out from Mastercard later this week.  I have had added a new feature to my Short Seller’s Journal called “Quick Hits,” which presents a short term, short-scalp trading idea.  The idea presented in this week’s report is down $1 (1.3%) already.  The put option suggestion is up 40%.  I believe this idea has at least another $1 of downside before Thursday’s option expiration. Click on this link to to subscribe:   SHORT SELLER’S JOURNAL.

This week’s report also presents what I believe to one of the best ways to short the corporate and mortgage bond market, especially the high yield market.