Take Advantage Of Falling Retail Stocks With My New Report Format

Note:  In response to high number of inquires, I will soon be introducing the Short Sellers Journal newsletter service.  In conjunction with this, I’m adding a new report format to my research report offerings.  The new format will feature a much shorter, summary format.  It will combine some fundamental analysis with chart/technical analysis and trade idea summaries.  All ideas will include suggestions for using options if the stocks have somewhat liquid options available for trading.

My debut report feature two retail stocks that I believe could gap down when they report earnings.  One company reports this Tuesday (November 24) and one reports on December 3.  Both stocks have not sold off recently with the sector and both are excellent longer term short sale plays to take advantage of the high likelihood that retail sales are going to disappoint expectations over the holidays and next year.

Let’s face it, the consumer is largely tapped out and overburdened by debt.BlogLOGO_retail

You access this report by clicking on here:  Short Sellers Journal/Retail Stock Ideas or on this graphic:

One company caters to the middle/lower middle income demographic and its sales have been flat for three years.  The second company caters to the teen-mid-20’s demographic and has seen declining sales and operating income.

Best BuyAlthough several large retails who have reported recently have experienced “cliff-dives” in their stock price after missing or barely making their earnings and revenue numbers, the RTH and XRT ETFs have yet to reflect the earnings recession invading the retail sector  – the pic to the left shows what happened to Best Buy when it reported last week, for instance.  This means there’s some stocks that have “cliff-dive” earnings events coming.

3 thoughts on “Take Advantage Of Falling Retail Stocks With My New Report Format

  1. Narrowing breadth and the FANGs. The exact timing of the next crash is unknown, but the clock is ticking. The FANGs are excellent shorting material. Not yet, but soon, IMHO.

    Nasdaq 100 rally can be credited to just two stocks

    http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/19/nasdaq-100-rally-can-be-credited-to-just-two-stocks.html

    “The money continues to crowd into the same names. The gap between the FANG stocks and the SPX remains wide,” Michael Block, chief strategiest of Rhino Trading Partners, wrote in a Thursday note, referring to an acronym for Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google and to the S&P 500 index.

    “This will eventually end in tears,” Block warned.

    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” – Mark Twain

    FYI and regards.

  2. Dave – Firstly great reports and very thorough analysis, much appreciated.
    It is difficult to keep up with your report revisions/updates, whether builders or .CON. May I suggest you make visible on your sales links what version/release issue a report is, and whether there is new information that a previous buyer should consider acquiring, or whether you are going to make available updates automatically to previous buyers.

    The .CON story is what it is and won’t change greatly so the updates keep it current for new buyers. But on builder reports you don’t know who you are going to get until it is purchased usually, so it would be useful for previous buyers to know a bit more.

    For example you have a banner at the moment saying:
    “In 2005, at the peak home deliveries, this company had $262k of debt per home delivered. Right now it has $630k of debt per home delivered. Insiders have been dumping the stock at a rate of 35:1.” I probably have not bought this one before – but it is not clear.
    Perhaps you can take a look at structuring this so sales are easier.
    Thanks.

    1. Hey thanks for the feedback. Those are some good ideas – I am in the process of implementing the suggestions you have pointed out.

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