The Credibility Of Andrew Maguire

Andrew Maguire has been a controversial figure in the gold/silver world ever since he blew the whistle on JP Morgan’s silver manipulation.  The information provided by Maguire to GATA was presented by GATA’s Bill Murphy at a hearing held by the CFTC on the precious metals market manipulation in March 2010.  Maguire had originally sent an email to someone in the CFTC enforcement which detailed how the precious metals would be attacked two days later when the non-farm payroll report was released.  Maguire wrote to the CFTC after the attack:

It is common knowledge here in London among the metals traders that it is JPM’s intent to flush out and cover as many shorts as possible prior to any discussion in March about position limits. I feel sorry for all those not in this loop. A serious amount of money was made and lost today and in my opinion as a result of the CFTC’s allowing by your own definition an illegal concentrated and manipulative position to continue.

GATA has detailed the entire event in this article:  LINK.

After Bill Murphy’s testimony at the CFTC’s hearing, Jeffrey Christian – a known shill for the bullion banks – publicly slashed and burned Maguire’s reputation with highly slanderous assertions about Maguire’s background and experience.  Christian’s remarks were intentionally deceitful, but the damage was done. The fraudulent attack on Maguire opened the door of doubt in the minds of many about the credibility of market intel delivered by Maguire to the public via venues like Eric King’s King World News.

I bring this up because a friend and colleague of mine – someone who has been around the precious metals sector longer than me, sent email to a myself and one other person asking for our thoughts on Maguire’s latest interview in King World News:  A Historic Event Is About To Shock The Gold Market

The interview is worth a listen and I believe there’s a high probability that Maguire’s insight and assertions are accurate.  Having said that, I wanted to share my response to the email, because it explains why I think Maguire’s intel is good.  The first part of my response references some comments made to my colleague from someone who expressed concern about the potential for Russia and China to unload gold like Venezuela did in order to avoid financial trouble:

Goldman has been working on getting Venezuela separated from its gold for over a year. Recall about a year ago that Goldman sent VZ a proposal for a leasing transaction. VZ was an easy prey. In my opinion, the way that VZ has been squeezed out of its gold tells us just how desperate the bullion banks are to source real physical gold. This move was analogous to taking Halloween candy from a little kid. But China/Russia are a different matter.

Russia running into financial trouble? Please show me any evidence of that OUTSIDE of western propaganda reports.  Russia continues to add a lot of gold to its Central Bank position every month. It that the behavior of an entity worried about liquidity? Have you looked at Russia’s debt/GDP ratio? As of 2014, the latest data available, Russia’s debt/GDP is 13%.  Russia is not in financial trouble. The western media wants us to believe that Russia is in financial trouble.

China? C’mon. China has $3.4 trillion in diversified FX reserves that needs to be netted against is sovereign debt position. China’s outright sovereign debt/GDP is 41% as of 2014. The number does not net out FX reserves.

As of July China’s household/corporate debt was 280% of GDP. The U.S. total debt (Govt + private sector) is 340% of GDP. The highest of any country in the world. US FX reserves are about $35 billion – i.e. nothing. Does the U.S. even have title to any gold that we use to add to its FX reserves? Doubtful. If any country is in danger of going insolvent, it’s the U.S if the rest of the world refuses to take any more paper dollars.

What if China were to include its true gold holdings at market in its FX reserves number?

As for Andrew, I had a long phone conversation with Eric King this past summer about Andrew. Eric is adamant that everything Andrew says is based in fact.  [note:  I came away from my conversation convinced that Maguire’s intel was bona fide.  As Eric and I discussed, the cartel has the backing of the U.S./British/EU Governments, which makes it impossible to predict the timing on actual occurrence of the events that we know ultimately will occur]

It’s hard to know for sure because Andrew references a lot of information that we have no way of verifying independently. For instance, he asserts that liquidity is leaving the Loco London market. Is there a way to verify this other than to have faith in Andrew’s assertions? If there is I’d love to see it.

Having said that, everything Andrew is talking about is exactly what Frank Veneroso said would eventually happen back in the late 1990’s. Frank never laid out “who and how” but he said eventually the western banks/CBs would be unable to contain the physical market with paper because the demand for physical would blow up the paper suppression schemes.

Here’s the other key assertion that we have no way of verifying: “the aggressive and predatory bullion banks that largely infest the swap dealer category of the COT report recognize the gold market has changed and are about to split ranks and reposition more bullishly, a position they would already have if they had not accrued such large underwater proprietary positions”

If you guys have any way of verifying that assertion, then we would know that Andrew is 100% bona fide.

At this stage, I have no reason to disbelieve Andrew based on my own observations and research into the precious metals market.  I really want to believe everything that he says is happening right now, but I’ve been taking a wait and see mind-set with regard to his assertions.

30 thoughts on “The Credibility Of Andrew Maguire

  1. OVER THE YEARS I HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO HIM . HE ALWAYS GETS YOU ALL CHARGED UP AND THEN AS TIME GOES BY WHAT HE SAYS NEVER TURNS OUT

  2. In October 2013, days before the annual Silver Summit, I released “Jonathan Frid Vomits On Silver” (Frid was a creepy character in “Dark Shadows” TV series) and there’s a resemblance between Christian and the Frid character. I hope it added to Christian’s discomfort at the SS. http://silverstealers.net/jfvos.pdf
    Maguire does OK as a speaker and would win an award from the Toastmasters Club for delivery.

  3. Seriously you don’t need a weather man to tell you it’s raining.

    Following the BAFIN investigation on January 17 Deutsche Bank said it would seek a buyer for its fixing seat, which it had held since 1994 after buying Sharps Pixley from Kleinwort Benson. Sharps Pixley is one of the oldest bullion dealers in the world and was a major force.

    When a bank the size of Deutsche Bank pulls out of a market not only does the trading activity go but all the acceptance credits and loan facilities go as well. Lending these days is targeted at strategic markets if you are pulling out all the other facilities will be cut to zero. Not only that but the other German Banks in the German pack will follow Deutsche Banks lead and a huge hole appears in the LBMA financing.

    It is not surprising that this is becoming apparent now as the credit lines will be being reviewed for next year at the moment. The lines would not have been cut when the announcement was made but will be now rolling off.

    You can’t have a major series of investigations into a market without the bulge banks running in panic.

  4. Bill Murphy rambled on like a lunatic at those hearings. He was a poor choice
    to state GATA’s position. Andrew M. has been saying that something is imminent
    for too long. King World News has become the National Enquirer of economics.

  5. What ever happened to that spectacular helicopter police chase through London after the person driving the sports car tried to run McGuire over? This was such big news that not a single London paper (I looked) carried the story.

    Knowing how the British press loves a sensational headline, that one always struck me as strange. The story never passed the smell test as far as I was concerned and it disappeared fairly quickly into the memory hole.

    After that little unexplained non-event I tended not to believe a single thing the guy said after that. Not to say I am right and everyone else is wrong on this, but to say that there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding this guy and the backstory which many people take as factual.

  6. Just before the glass starts cracking there always will be unpleasant rumors to be spread.

    It doesn’t matter who is the victim. The cracks may appear anywhere.

    In fact the victim of the rumors may feel honored for the attention the Powers did invest to his inquiry. They only invest this kind of trouble to veil the Truth.

    I am just going to lean back and wait for the fireworks…

  7. Wasn’t there a bet made at that summit between Christian and Murpghy on the price of silver? Christian reckoned it would be lower and Murphy higher. It would seem Christian was right. I know many here will turn around and say that proves manipulation…it doesn’t. As for KWN he’s a joke and so are most people who go on that show. Perma Bulls who only see gold and silver going up and cry manipulation when ever it goes down. We have been in a commodity bear market for nearly 5 years, nothing unusual there.

  8. I remember back in 2012 when gold was at $1800- he said
    “The price of gold CANNOT go down because the physical market was too tight”. Gold proceeded to fall another $700+. I lost a lot of money listening to him. I think he is full of Sh*t and is a disinformation agent. If they wanted him dead they definitely would have get him. I don’t the “car nearly cleaned him up” stunt- any proof of this happening?

  9. Isn’t the crack that we may be hearing is the crack in the confidence of the US dollar, which is psychologically dependent on a parity with gold?
    So what if the synthetic price of gold soars a few hundred dollars, those in the “I told you so” club have a few more dollars, but the real question is what will be the fate of the “debt doesn’t matter” US dollar? Will there be a direct link, or will the change in the price of gold be shrugged off as a mere anomaly in the quirky gold bug market?

  10. Reminds me of a the parable about the boy who cries “wolf.”

    The moral of the story: if you repeatedly sound the alarm when there is no danger you loose credibility and nobody will believe you when the day of reckoning finally arrives.

    To those of you who disparage Maguire, you have grown weary listening to his repeated warnings only to find there is no wolf when you arrive. Fair enough.

    But let us not forget how this parable ends. The boy cries wolf over and over, and one day the wolf actually does come and nobody was prepared because nobody believed him.

    Who gives a damn about helicopters in London, directional calls, and repeated warnings from a serial alarmist. The point is, the wolf is real and he is going to eat you alive if you are unprepared. Does anyone doubt this? And does anyone doubt that one day, Maguire is going to be right?

  11. I have been listening to Andrew Maguire on KWN for some 3-4 years. Whenever he has suggested that some turn or other in the gold market will imminently result in much higher prices he has been wrong – almost without exception. I have to assume he is a disinformation agent.

  12. What about this alternative exchange he keeps going on about, when is that starting? He has been going on with that for a while.

    Also his investment services are not offered through the same firm anymore, what happened there?

  13. so…. What if China, Russia, JPM,VZ, the CME, basically the whole damned world
    Is in on the con? Wouldn’t it be easy enough to shuffle around the PM’s so it
    Looked like a shortage, a glut, you name it?And us little guys are the ones being
    conned. It could go on forevah!!!!!

    1. For the love of God, please, please, every pundit or expert or insider out there, stop writing that the end is nigh. Or that we’re approaching criticality or some kind of event horizon. I am sick to death of hearing it. Every year it’s next year. Every year it’s “this can’t go on,” except it does. How about this: NO ONE EFFING KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN OR WHEN. Here’s a new theme for a new article for y’all: “Consider the lillies of the valley. . . “

  14. WHO KNOWS MR KING MIGHT BE A PART OF THE OTHER SIDE. JUST KEEP STACKING AND FUCK ALL THE OTHER ASSHOLES, EXCEPT DAVE. HE SEEMS TO BE ONE OF US.

  15. Question here. Doesn’t OPEC plan on raising the price of a barrel of oil to around $ 88.00 by the middle of December from the mid $ 40 dollar range today ?
    In that case , why don’t the holders and owners of physical silver have it together enough to raise the price of actual Ag47 to say $ 120.00 per oz. as well ? I’m sure that’s way under the true value for such a sought after PRECIOUS metal.Until it’s properly respected many a clueless will not pay attention.

  16. It appears we are at a cross road. Clive Maund is predicting that the that the super bearish COTs portend a massive drop in silver to $10 and the USD will break dollar parity with the euro and 100 on the USDX.

    McGuire believes the LBMA will implode and this will set off a spectacular rise in the price of gold as the COTS are influenced by the pack led by Goldman’s who far from running are piling on the pressure.

    Who is right? They both can’t be and the charts of the dollar and the euro are definitely at a crossroads.

    Personally at $10 an oz. I think Indian buying would kill everybody.

  17. The worse the real economy gets, the higher debt and leverage go, the lower “the gold price” dives. And prices in all paper currencies move together.

    Physical offtake is now completely irrelevant to the determination of price in dollars. Comex ounces to outstanding contracts (bets) could be 10,000-to-one and nothing would change…

  18. Two ways to lose credibility. One is to intentionally misrepresent facts to present misdirection to people. The second is to honestly interpret the facts that you know but your conclusions and/or timing are wrong. The first is evil. The second is incompetence or maybe just underestimating the power of those in charge to continue keeping the charade alive. I tend to think McGuire falls in the second group but it really does not matter. He has cried wolf too many times (like everyone else at KWN). After he has been correct on some predictions I’ll start taking him seriously again.

    1. No. Maguire is not incompetent. He’s telling us facts about what is going on. Everytime he gets on KWN the metals get hit hard. That’s not a coincidence. Nothing happens by coincidence, especially markets that are manipulated to an extreme degree. We have all underestimate the Fed/BIS’ ability to keep these markets manipulated. It’s not just the metals. Look at the S&P 500. The level of the S&P 500 has never in history been more disconnected from the intrinsic value of the underlying fundamentals. This economy is in a recession. The revenues of the major S&P 500 companies are declining. The U.S. has the highest total debt to GDP ratio in history.

      No one knows when the intervention will fail. If you think Maguire is incompetent, why don’t you short GLD and go long SPX?

  19. Thanks Dave, Can’t tell if you left the trolls welcome light on or everyone is just having a bad day. Totally agree with your summation and yes I get frustrated too and have been the laugh of the day more than once at family gatherings over the past 3 years. Before that I was a genius…. How fast they turn on you!

    Easy to bag on Andrew and I can’t say I have never said many of the things we read here as the frustration is thick. The fess up is yes I too have been totally incorrect on the level of corruption I anticipated by TPTB. If the last 40 days haven’t shown you that all in means ALL IN then you have your head up yours. This is total desperation time and NOTHING will be left in the Bag O Tricks….oh no. The bottom line is take a good hard look at what’s going on its frankly incredible that they can still pull this level of corruptions across all the markets. As we all can deduce this will lead to a massively nastier final outcome but at this point they don’t care they are living for the moment….only. Ok to vent just stay honest and don’t swallow the snake oil its toxic. The All In means Psy-Ops too so remember its goals….to keep you on the bubble for buying more or better yet getting you to sell.

    Patience is a virtue I struggle mightily with….. so on we go. The next chapter may make you wish we didn’t get to that point and that we were right about the consequences. Being right this time will be a hollow victory I fear. For now I remain a lot poorer $$$ wise. The consolation is we survived another day in a relatively sane way by continuing to masticate our future . This lunacy will end….badly. Enjoy some of the good that still remains.

  20. McGuire could be talking about several finance shortages but two key areas could be:

    Acceptances – these are issued by the bullion market subsidiary and are not guaranteed by the parent bank. Acceptances are secured on the bullion holdings and carry a lower risk capital weighting than loans and are therefore cheaper. If the deposit notes in the unallocated accounts at the LBMA are no longer considered good security then the monthly statistics produced by the Bank of England will show a drop in acceptances for precious metals. These figures are probably published. In the absence of acceptances the LBMA bullion traders will have to rely on subsidiary loans which are more expensive. I haven’t look in detail at the Bank of England statistics for years but you can probably get this information on a monthly basis. Given the BAFIN investigation this could quite easily be happening.

    Ladder arbitrage (price curve) – the shorts tend to infest the long end of the ladder because this is where leverage gives them the most bang for their buck. Normally the locals or swap dealers fill in the ladder with arbitrage to give a normal price curve that reflects the interest rate holding cost. If the locals no longer trust the delivery, arbitrage will dry up and in the longer end of the price ladder and the price curve will be bent. Anyone with access to a dealing desk of real time prices will see this every day. The fix probably does not show this information which is why it is called the fix. However the dealers will see it all the time on the screens.

  21. Two comments for what they are worth-

    1. Why didn’t Venezuela try to stick it to Uncle Scam and Goldman Sucks by selling all of Venezuela’s gold straight to China? The Peoples Republic of China could easily pay US Dollars for the gold and leave DC and Goldman on the sidelines unable to do anything about it.

    2. Andrew Maguire truly means what he says about gold, but I think he overlooked the fact that the powers that be would rather blow up the whole world rather than give up their power. The London Gold Pool was a weapon that TPTB used to suppress the price of gold, after so many decades after the Pool failed the TPTB have cooked up several gold suppression schemes.

    Buyers lost money on gold (if they sold it after the price declines) and many feel betrayed by the pro gold pundits, which is exactly what the anti-gold pundits wanted. Make gold look like junk and the masses will avoid it and buy paper investments (the anti-gold’s dream come true.)

    When will gold be free form the manipulation? That is the trillion dollar question, and I wish I had an answer to that question not only for myself but for all gold buyers worldwide.

  22. “Listen to all (including A. M.) and then do whatever you think is right” is my motto. As such, I find much of what he says “interesting” and likely good information. My believe is that what is coming will be a monetary singularity (THE reset) and TPTB do a fabulous job in confusing people and herding them to chase the fiat carrots dangling in front of their faces left and right. A. M. seems to be pretty successful at trading the paper PM markets, and if what he says is true, converts parts of these trading proceeds into fizz. The music is still playing, but at some (likely unexpected) point in time it will stop and then BOOM.
    As mentioned above, if you Dave, want to find out if he is legit or not, best to find out directly from him and ask him for an interview and prepare specific questions you would like him to address. That should do, no? Keep up the great work. x

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