Will the REAL Chinese Gold Demand Numbers Please Stand Up

There are assumptions in this analysis that should be clear to all. But if it only serves to expose the futility of attempts in western capital markets to manage the gold price, the exercise has been worthwhile. For much of 2013 commentators routinely stated that Asian demand was satisfied from ETF redemptions. But as can be seen, ETF sales totalling 881 tonnes covered only one-quarter of the west’s shortfall against China, the rest coming mostly from central bank vaults.  – Alisdair Macleod, Renewed Estimates of Chinese Gold Demand (link)

While there has been much debate over the amount of gold that is actually, realistically being transferred from the western bank and Central Bank vaults, all of us who study this issue can say with 100% confidence that any estimates from the World Gold Council, or from WGC-derived analyses, are incorrect by a significant amount.   This much we know.

Alisdair Macleod, who is one of the few gold market analysts out there with analysis and commentary about the gold market that I believe offers accurate insight and is worth reading,  published a detail report which outlines what appears to be the most bona fide estimate of the amount of gold that is being “absorbed” by China annually.  While most of us have speculated on the size of the true amount of gold held by the PBOC, Mr. Macleod’s analysis puts together the numbers which show why the PBOC disclosure is misleadingly low.

The questions remain why, if gold is a mere ornamental asset being held out of “tradition” (per Bernanke’s testimony to Congress), are Central Banks so secretive about their gold market transactional activities?   This of course is a purely rhetorical question…

I would urge everyone who is interested in seeking truth to spend time and carefully read Mr. Macleod’s analysis linked at the top.  In that I’ve been researching and studying the gold market for nearly 14 years now, I can say with complete conviction that if Alisdair’s numbers are not 100% accurate, they’re pretty damn close to the truth.


5 thoughts on “Will the REAL Chinese Gold Demand Numbers Please Stand Up

  1. Hey Dave,

    Already had the Alisdar Macleod article book marked and will hopefully get the chance to see how it stacks up against reality.
    Agree it complimented Koos Jansens work well and added alot more cred to the gray areas. Had a couple of my better miners get
    smacked today on no news….Must not have the negative beta stocks outperforming the regular market now can we! So sick
    of the manipulators.

    Do you give any cred to the Feds plan to totally discredit gold as a store of value? I know I am not alone in
    wanting China to be more aggressive on the price instead of always being a price taker. If there is a risk to de-linking gold from
    the peoples conscience it would come as a reslut of being such a passive buyer. I have gotten past thinking of them as a ally in
    this battle of fiat and phys due to them having no interest in higher prices until some magic time in the future….a future that
    never seems to arrive. Not that we want armmegdon soon but a little appreciation of the shiney would be welcome.

    Wanted to thank you for stopping by Turdville for the interview. Thought it went really well but still wondering about hidding my
    Gold where the sun don’t shine…. uhmmm. Glad to see you added George to the board kinda needed some softening as well as
    legacy link to The Golden Truth.

    Kansas Crude

    1. Thanks for the feedback KC! The Fed has already discredited gold as a store of value in the minds of more Americans. It’s been a systematic program since 1971. I went to U of Chicago biz school and never hear word “gold’ in any finance classes I took. The Chinese don’t have to be price makers until the west runs out of gold to deliver into them under $2k. Eventually they’ll be price makers but we really don’t want to see what that will do to life in this country because it will collapse the dollar

      1. It won’t be much longer. The banksters plans to create another smokescreen to keep the American people clueless has been clearly foiled. One debacle after the other , first the world trade center , followed by invasions of iraq and afganastan , then on to iran and egypt. If that wasn’t enough next destroying cyprus , syria , and ukraine . Bubbles ,money markets manipulations . All for the control of the almighty ~ $ ~ .
        What does the future hold for all of these dishonest people ? Evidence indicates that a number of them are already taking the first steps off of the ledge , or are being helped.
        With all of the writing on the wall and more being added at a faster pace , what will it take to kick into action towards preparedness for americans ?
        God only knows !

  2. It would be easier to find out the nuclear launch codes for the US, Russia, China, France, Great Britain, Pakistan AND India than it would be to find out the truth as far as gold goes.
    Who really has how much gold?
    How much gold is there available today?
    How much will be produced before mining becomes unprofitable?
    Talk about unknown unknowns in Pentagon doublespeak.

    The world won’t know there is a shortage of gold until gold is unavailable anywhere in the West. With China buying up mines worldwide for the sake of getting the gold itself, Not because they want to sell gold on the world market, a gold shortage seems more and more possible by the day.

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