Greenspan: The Weak Demand Feels Like A Depression

In fact, effective demand is extraordinarily weak…The way I measure it, it’s probably tantamount to what we saw in the later stages of the Great Depression.   – Alan Greenspan on CNBC (interview link)

I have been suggesting for quite some time now that the underlying demand in this country is far weaker than is represented by the “seasonally adjusted, annualized rate” statistical vomit that the Government and industry marketing associations throw in our face on a daily basis.

In fact, I suggested in late November that the crashing price of oil was likely the “black swan” that no one saw coming (link) – not one single Wall Street analyst was forecasting a decline in the price of oil.  I further surmised that the crashing price of oil was primarily a result of extraordinarily weak demand not just globally but specifically and especially here in the U.S.   Subsequent reports for December and January retail sales showing almost 1% declines in each month further validated my analysis.

Retail sales are rarely negative.  A negative nominal retail sales number means unit sales declined.  The even more negative inflation-adjusted “real” retail sales would indicate a serious decline in unit volume sales.  It means the average consumer is basically “dead.” In this article on Seeking Alpha I go into further detail which shows how and why I know that the U.S. economy is on the verge of a “cliff dive:”  U.S. economy/cliff’s edge link.

You know the saying, you can lead a horse to water…AMZN is going to be one of the more epic stock crashes when reality grips the market.   AMZN’s operating income margin has been declining toward zero since 2004.  I show why in my report.   AMZN’s operating income was almost zero in 2014.   I show why in my report.  As AMZN’s sales growth rate declines, AMZN will become increasingly squeezed for cash – I show why in my report.  If you play the short-side of this stock intelligently and with discipline, you can make a lot of money shorting AMZN.   My report also has ideas for trade position management and the use of options to short the stock and manage risk:    AMAZON.CON

The quality of your content is incredible.  Your work shows not only why AMZN will eventually hit the wall, but it shows that the fraudulence embedded in our financial system runs all the way up to the highest levels – in this case FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) and the SEC.   Your work shows in detail how the Amazon Ponzi scheme is constructed right in front our eyes and everyone who owns the stock is clueless.  It’s the best $25 I’ve ever spent on financial research…Scott in Arizona


12 thoughts on “Greenspan: The Weak Demand Feels Like A Depression

  1. It´s almost like when Harry Markopolos found Madoff and presented the whole case to the SEC and served them everything on a silverplatter but they couldnt´find anything wrong for 7 years until the whole thing blew up.

    This time i guess there will be a whole bunch of naive and gullible “mom and pop investors” that always comes to late to the party that will be burnt alive in this crash.

    This people think everything is ok because they bought their AMZN stocks through a big fund, and that´s always secure isn´t it?

  2. Thank you for some most illustrative and valid warnings!
    I do not fully understand your statement: ” AMZN’s operating income margin has been declining toward zero since 2004.”
    My question: What I don’t understand is the definition of AMZN’s “operating income”. It has been proven that AMZN does not pay taxes in Europe. Their profit in highly taxed countries is zero (respectively probably even negative). Profit is booked in Luxembourg, where no taxes have to be paid. I understand AMZN’s “operating income” may be zeroed in most countries although high profits are being paid to hidden accounts. Does AMZN’s “operating income” also include hidden profits? And who is checking their “accounting books”?

      1. Dave I must say that I love your comments and sense of humour almost as much as your analytical skills digging in to balance sheets and reports.

        This comment made my day!

        Thanks for a friday laugh!

  3. What a piece of crap Greenspan is. After years of jamming
    everyone in the ass with his terrible manipulative policies,
    constant double speak and now he has found religion.
    He reminds me of the mafia hit man who murders a bunch
    of people and then on Friday goes to confession and asks for
    absolution. I think he is trying to clear his conscience because
    he realizes his time is coming. What a burden he must feel.

    1. Amen to that David! This miserable little troll/Mr. Greenscam (or Mr. Magoo if you prefer) couldn’t see the housing bubble or the stock market bubbles forming and now all of a sudden he is an expert when things are getting bad?
      Bahgdad Bob has more credibility than Greenscam ever had has or will!

  4. If statistics could be recognized over a century ago for the consummate and complete crap that they are, how much further down the rabbit hole are we these days?

    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
    – Mark Twain

  5. I listened to you and Rory on Shadow of Truth on Friday 2/27/15; very informative discussion.
    As far as Greenspan finally spilling a little truth–too little, too late in my opinion.

    Question: Should I sell my Stapleton Townhome this Spring, or keep it as a Rental property, and leave the country now?

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