Non-Farm Payroll Reports – The Big Lie: Feed The Pigeons

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State. – Joseph Goebbels, Hitler’s Minister of Propaganda

Think about the psychology behind Goebbel’s statement for a moment. If you are going to tell a lie, make it so outrageous that most people would fall into believing that it’s true because they would not let themselves believe that someone would try to present an extreme lie as the truth. It’s like a modified Stockholm Syndrome mechanism.

Dave , this is so transparent and bad that I am almost rendered speechless and I always have something to say.  – John Embry  in an email exchange

I didn’t bother to watch the American Horror Story presentation of the release of the non-farm payroll report as it was released. I’m not in the habit of turning on the Cartoon Network this early in the morning. But when I saw the headline numbers my response was to laugh out loud.

No sense dissecting the numbers because I’m also not in the habit of spending time analyzing and interpreting complete nonsense. Everyone reading this has seen the analytic dismemberment of the BLS data releases ad nauseum.  After enough iterations, it becomes a boorish waste of time.  I am looking forward to John Williams’ comments later today, of which I’ll share a few snippets.

Kudos to my friend and colleague who predicted how today would unfold almost perfectly. Almost. Even he vastly underestimated the degree to which the BLS would shove a lie in our face. Well, he got the sequence of plays right but he underestimated the size of the Big Lie – this was from Wednesday:

BD model adds 145,000 jobs. NFP for October comes in at 190,000. Mark Zandi gets quoted in every wire service saying it’s a clear indicator of the underlying strength and improvement in the economy. All jump even harder on the consensus December Fed rate hike band wagon. Stock market rips lower and Gold gets hammered to under $1100. Stock market rips at 3:30pm into the Friday close as they force massive short covering into green and Gold goes unchanged on the day.

It remains to be seen if the stock market rips higher by the end of the day. I bet it will. I doubts gold will rally however, at least today. It’s for sure going higher but we might have to wait until the market understands that there will be no rate hike in December and, if anything, more QE is coming.  But the only way to support the Big Lie is keep a lid on the one indicator that would severe the Achilles’ Heel of the Big Lie.

On another note, the homebuilders are getting ripped apart again today. Gee, if so many people found jobs, doesn’t that mean homebuilders will selling more homes? Shouldn’t these stocks being flying? Two of the largest homebuilders have now reported big declines in deliveries in their third quarters through September. But I thought the summer was supposed to be the best period for home sales…bummer dude.

Burst of hiring sends unemployment to 5%!!!!! LOL! This is getting to be such a joke Dave. I’m getting crash fatigue. It’s like the Bataan Death March. Let’s get it over with my God! – blog comment from “Richard”

21 thoughts on “Non-Farm Payroll Reports – The Big Lie: Feed The Pigeons

  1. As Zero Hedge points out the majority of the reported job growth is for the 55 and older age group. Can’t blame the record low labor participation rate on people taking early retirement.

    1. Yes Robert, I agree.
      I made the point a couple of times before, but the moderator/Dave scrubbed my comments. Maybe because you’re a regular, that he tolerated your comment.
      I’m dyslexic, and when I read things where there are spelling mistakes, it really throws me. I read it many times, and then come to the realisation that it is a spelling mistake, or a mistake in grammar, and its not my dyslexia.


  3. This is really good news!

    You know Dave my son is 21 years old and a top student at the Swedish equivalent of MIT and he´s going to work for some American company for 3 months next summer in an exchange program of some sort (as long as nothing bad happens)

    Now when I know that you have added almost 300.000 new parttime bartenders I might even visit him!

  4. OMG, I’ profoundly impressed. The savior is truly a miracle worker. Full
    employment so seems that everything the master touches comes up roses.
    I’m certain obummer’s reign of corruption will be remembered in history
    however certainly not that way he wishes.

  5. I’ve been playing in this cesspool of a market since 2000. Sadly today’s jobs report was an easy call. The car is out of control but the powers that be want to keep in on the road. So via verbal bs and fictitious reports the car is swerved to one side of the road. Specs put on positions and then data is released contrary to the positions and the car swerves to the other side of the road as the spec positions are unraveled. Wash, rinse, repeat. The banks are complicit and in exchange for their help they get to profit. Come on, at this point does anyone really believe that those high up in the banks don’t know what the game plan is or what data comes next? It works until it doesn’t

  6. Who cares if we lost 30,000 jobs for 25-54 year olds! We don’t need them to work because the 55+ group is going to push this country forward and make sure our bills get paid! The new career is in the USA is only 12 years long now, 55 to 67 before you can cash their social security checks ad get some medicare! Obama’s dream!

  7. Everything is utterly predictable.
    Intraday volatility is dead.
    Correlation is 100% – TOTAL.
    Paper yield dictates everything.
    Rigging & manipulation is systemic, continuous, unchallenged and ongoing.
    Delirious denial and optimism among the mainstream.

    Someone once described today’s “markets”, very aptly, as being like “drowning in jello”…

  8. The shit show continues, the cognitive dissonance ratchets up another level. The lie gets bigger and bigger.

    Actually, I think this state of dissonance has always been the underlying reality in our society. It’s just that now it’s becoming more and more obvious. When it all blows, it will be spectacular.

    Reading this article yesterday that Paul Craig Roberts posted gave me the willies:

    The government hearings on war preparation are happening. This is government marching to war, assembling the narrative as if everything is perfectly logical and rational in doing this.

    There will be war. The hegemon has lost its mind, it is infected by a parasite. There’s no way it will go quiet into the night like the Soviet Union. It has a deep death wish.

  9. As predicted. Massive dollar rally. PMs getting slammed.

    It was pretty obvious and it’s just getting started.

    Own PMs at your own risk.

  10. Well, I don’t know Dave, but Zerohedge is now putting odds of December rate hike at 78%. I think we’re entering some extremely dangerous territory not seen before. If they have been so outrageous with job numbers all these days, why can’t they be so deranged and outrageous with an interest rate hike? Maybe they’re intent on seeing most American cities crash and burn with widespread rioting.

  11. Dave
    Since the lies keep getting bigger every day all you can say is ‘someday this will end violently in a big crash’ I keep hoping that crash would come so we can all get back to reality but that has not happened yet. We keep hoping China and Russia and the Brics will bring on the crash, or the collapsing credit default swaps will do it, or abject economic failure will do . Finally I realized what will ultimately do it ..disbelief…that is the principle that Goebbels held was if you tell a lie long enough and strongly enough people will believe it…NO THEY WON’T!!!! I am a Board Certified Psychiatrist who knows a thing or two about that principle as it is the basis of reality orientation and I will categorically tell you they will not..its a false statement.

  12. Couple of apt quotes:

    “Only the small secrets need to be protected. The big ones are kept secret by public incredulity.” – Marshall McLuhan

    “Anything goes and nothing matters.” – James Howard Kunstler

  13. What is ‘BALTIC DRY INDEX – BDI’
    A shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport raw materials such as metals, grains and fossil fuels by sea. The Baltic Exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery (speed).

    The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that measure different sizes of dry bulk carriers (merchant ships) – Capesize, Supramax and Panamax. Multiple geographic routes are evaluated for each index to give depth to the index’s composite measurement.

    Changes in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends. This change is often considered a leading indicator of future economic growth (if the index is rising) or contraction (index is falling) because the goods shipped are raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation.
    (Investopedia )

    Down 95% since 2007 and at the lowest ever this time a year! Read more about it.


    “We have in the past joked that the only thing that could possibly save the world from what is a trade recession is if the central banks can somehow find a way to “print trade” the way they artificially boost asset prices higher to give the impression of a status quo normalcy. Unfortunately, as this is not a real option, and with both global and US trade in freefall, many wonder just how will the world’s central planners mask this most dangerous aspect of the global economic slowdown?” (zerohedge)

    1. They can’t manipulate the real economy in a way that prevents the real economy from crashing. The real economy is crashing

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.