Tag Archives: homes for sale

More Evidence That Housing Hit A Wall In August

Homes sales volume PLUNGED in August in Southern California, San Francisco/Bay Area and Las Vegas. These had been among the hottest markets in sales volume, low inventory and price increase in 2012/2013. Not anymore:

Southern Cal August Home Sales Volume
SoCal August Sales Volume

SF/Bay Area August Home Sale Volume
BayAreaAugVolume

The numbers for Vegas are for July, but I guarantee that August was worse
VegasJulyHomeSales

Furthermore, a large percentage home sellers in Orange County have been forced to cut prices if they want to attract prospective traffic:

In Orange County, the region’s priciest market, about one-third of sellers have been forced to cut prices, according to data from real estate firm Redfin. Across the Southland, prices have hit a plateau this summer, with sales volume slumping as buyers got pickier.   LA Times

The San Francisco market has been hailed by housing market bulls and Wall Street stock pimps as the “poster child” for the new bull market in housing.   Well, you can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of reality.  Sales volume absolutely plunged over 20% in August.  Alas,  San Francisco, like it was in 2005, will be the poster child for the housing market collapse Part Two.

Please note that “New Home” sales in Vegas did a Wiley Coyote cliff-dive of nearly 17% in July.  Homebuilders have loaded up their “boat” with inventory by issuing debt and spending shareholder cash – right at the top of the market, just like in 2005.

I have three homebuilder short-sell ideas featured on this blog:   Homebuilder Research  Each report offers insight, analysis and presentation of misleading accounting like you will never find anywhere else.  The only other time in my 30 years of involvement in the stock market that I have seen a better short-sell opportunity than right now is the tech bubble in early 2000 and original housing bubble in 2005.

Note:  I originally sourced some of the source data from the Dr Housing Bubble blog.