Through The Looking Glass: Employment Report Fraud

“Well, now that we have seen each other,” said the unicorn, “if you’ll believe in me, I’ll believe in you.” – Lewis Carroll, “Through The Looking Glass”

“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” – Keyser Söze, “The Usual Suspects”

The employment report is a complete fraud. But as long as the market and it’s army of mainstream story-tellers focus just on the headline number, unicorns do exist. But the Devil is in the details:

However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.

Here’s the source link from the BLS report, scroll to the bottom:   No B.S. Like The BLS

This is before looking at the actual line item data estimates (more like guesstimates) in the Household and Establishment data. Most of the numbers in the line items for each industry are simply not credible. As a colleague points out, “this is the same shit that happened before the November 2012 Presidential election when jobs growth was egregiously overstated and then revised lower over the next several months.”

Beyond that, there’s not much to say about this report. The numbers as presented are astonishingly implausible. It’s an insult to everyone’s intelligence for the Government and the main stream reporters and analysts to think that anyone with two brain cells to rub together would find this report believable. Ultimately, this attempt by Trump to stuff the ballot boxes early in the election cycle will back-fire – badly.

6 thoughts on “Through The Looking Glass: Employment Report Fraud

  1. Ya it seems deliberate on part of BLS to keep the same mistake happening over and over and not choosing not to address in the survey itself. But even if we ignore the 3% difference due to the error, the numbers still came out way above what economists were expecting ! It’s natural for some jobs to come back after a forced closing of this kind. But what’s surprising is the market’s reaction to it where Nasdaq 100 makes an all time high !!! Can any economist prove to me that 100 of these companies will be earning more than last year.

  2. So, what is the economic forecast based on the real numbers, the Trillions flooding the market, and the destruction of small businesses? For example, what will perpetual Martial Law do?

  3. Stealing of trillions $ is helping “Markets” going up and up nothing else !!!
    Masters imported a lot gold from Switzerland so they can play and smash gold on Comex again for sometime but only for sometime !!

  4. Total joke isn’t it, but on this point:

    ” It’s an insult to everyone’s intelligence for the Government and the main stream reporters and analysts to think that anyone with two brain cells to rub together would find this report believable”

    True, but we all know that it’s not aimed at real people, but at computer trading algorithms that simply trade headlines. Are stock ‘markets’ today really forward looking, or are they now just reactions to daily headlines; it seems the stock market is always the last to get it, assuming that it even gets it at all.

  5. And the fairy tale known as the stock market (Dow Jones) rose more than 3% on Friday due to this completely fraudulent jobs report. It will surely make a lot of people think “Ok, the stock market (my retirement plan) is good, on the road to recovery.” The stock market, and thus, all retirement plans, will be decimated. This fraudulent bs is sickening. They have permanently crippled our economy, and many, many millions of jobs will NEVER come back.

  6. Rigged like everything else. Anyone who has participated in the markets
    for any length of time knows this. I’m not complaining, once you understand
    the agenda just use the tools available and join the game. It has always been
    a game of odds.

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