Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook for February plunged to -11.2 from -4.4 in January. Wall Street Einsteins were expecting -2.8; Philly Fed Survey fell to 5.2 vs. 8.2 expected but the 6-month outlook “index” plunged to 29.7 from 50.9 December; the Empire State Fed survey was weaker than January but the “new orders” index fell to 1.22 from 6.09 and future business expectations plunged from 48.3 to 25.58. Everyone already knows that retail sales were negative in December (-.9) and January (-.8) – that’s with inflation – real retail sales (better measure of unit volume) were even more negative.
I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha in which I make the case that the U.S. economy is headed into a recession, if we’re not technically in one already. You can read the article here: The U.S. Economy May Be Headed For A Big Collapse.
This is an excellent graphic portrayal of the current situation in the U.S. economy. “U.S. Macro” is an index compiled by Bloomberg which measures the difference between the economic data as reported vs. the consensus estimates for that data (click to enlarge):
By now I think almost everyone knows that the Fed has been pushing the stock market inexorably higher on a sea tide of printed money. I think everyone understands that history has shown that market interventions always fail. When the stock market intervention fails, it will trigger a collapse that will likely make the 1929 crash look tame…