SIX Reasons To Vote For Trump…

If you feel the need to vote at all (sourced from Zerohedge) :

  1. “A Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress.”
  2. A hiring freeze on all federal employees.”
  3. “A requirement that for every new federal regulation, 2 existing regulations must be eliminated.”
  4. “A 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government.”
  5. “A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.”
  6. “A complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.”

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter who occupies the Oval Office – it’s the Deep State and the wealthy titans behind the Deep State (Bill Gates, Buffet, Soros, Rockefeller, Bezos, Anschutz, etc) that control the fate of this country.

The most important one in the list  in my opinion is #1.  If #1 is eliminated it will naturally offset Citizens United.  I found it ironic that Hillary Clinton referenced Citizens United negatively in the last debate because SHE is the biggest beneficiary of Citizens United.  Her refusal to answer Trump’s challenge to return the $10’s of millions she’s received from Saudi Arabia said everything about her real view on Citizens United.

Citizens United napalmed any remaining shreds of democracy in this country and turned the country in a full-blown Banana Republic for sale to the highest bidders.   The Podesta emails reveal that Hillary has taken full advantage of the Pay-To-Play system created by Citizens United.

Hillary believes there is a difference between her stated pubic vs. private position on political issues.  In other words, her campaign platform is the  exact opposite of what she really stands for if elected.

The election boils down to whether you prefer the next President to be a confirmed criminal who will sell out this country to the highest bidders or an inexperienced, unpolished politician who wants to shake up DC and who scares the hell out of the elitists.

hillary-pinnochio-cartoon“Vote early and often people”

“And if you know any dead guys who need to vote, email their info to Donna at the DNC”


Junior Miners: Gold And Silver Are Ready To Rumble

Massive one-shot selling of non-physical gold on Tuesday, October 4th, appeared to be typical of gold-price-depressing market interventions seen repeatedly in recent years. Those interventions have been orchestrated regularly by central banks…Post-election, the Fed likely will face economic and liquidity circumstance more conducive to expanded quantitative easing, than to meaningful rate hikes. Reverting now to obvious market manipulation of the price of gold could be a leading indicator of pending central-bank policy otherwise shifting towards intensified U.S. dollar debasement.  – John Williams,

The Fed was overtly aggressive in its attack on gold and silver during the past few weeks.  As John Williams observes in the quote above, it’s probable that the Fed has made every effort to suppress the price of gold ahead of the implementation of more QE in some form (dollar debasement).

Several analysts have been offering up theories with regard to the performance of gold based on the winner of the presidential election.  But the truth is, gold and silver will do well for the foreseeable future regardless of which candidate wins.   Perhaps this chart created by Twitter @thingtankcharts, with my edits, will explain my view:


The graphic above shows the three massive bubbles blown by the Fed, the last two of which hit exhaustion and were followed by a collapse in the stock market.  The third bubble is by far the biggest and will likely be followed by a stunning stock market collapse unless the Fed blows even harder with a bigger QE program than was implemented in 2008.  Either way, gold and silver will soar.

Right now, of course, India and China have stepped up ot their seasonal gold feeding trough with healthy appetites. Jewelers in India see a 10-20% rise in demand for this year’s festival season – Economic Times.

Away from the activity in the physical gold market, another indicator has perked up:  the junior mining stocks.  Not necessarily the junior segment as a whole, but the smaller cap juniors which potentially have high-payoff deposits and the cash to fund exploration.

The fund I co-manage owns several of these so I happened to notice that trading volumes in these stocks began to spike up in mid-late December, around the time that gold and silver began to move higher but in advance of the universe of mining stocks.  The volume in these stocks began spiking up late last week and early this week. As examples, volumes on the TSX listing for Rye Patch Gold, Alamadex Minerals, Barkerville Gold, Arizona Mining and Treasury Metals spiked up considerably this week.  This is just a few examples.

The junior exploration stocks tend to be largely off the radar screen of most mining stock investors.  But I also believe that the smartest hedge funds who play in the mining stock sandbox are well aware that the smallest juniors have the most upside leverage to rising gold and silver prices.   In other words, “really smart money” smells another moving coming the precious metals – likely in anticipation of further dollar devaluation policies implemented by the Fed and Government.

We know that whoever is the next President will ramp up Government spending in an attempt to revive an economy that is on the verge of depression.  The only way this can be enabled, in light of the fact that China and other major Central Banks are dumping Treasuries, is for the Fed to step up and monetize the debt that will have to be issued by the Government to fund even more fiscal spending

The number one and two priorities will be a Federal bailout of Obamacare and a move to prop up the largest State and Federal retirement funds, including Social Security, all of which are badly underfunded and will collapse if the Government does not intervene.  The money printing that is coming will drive the precious metals and miners a lot higher from here.

You can subscribe to the Mining Stock Journal by clicking on this LINK or by clicking on the graphic below.  For now, I am distributing the previous two issues (March 4th was the debut issue) published.  Each bi-monthly issue contains what I believe to be unique commentary and analysis on the gold/silver market plus a thoroughly researched mining stock idea – mostly juniors but I’ll present an occasional large cap idea, especially if I believe it presents a good short term trading opportunity.

  • “You’ve got a great journal for an amazing price.” – James


Here’s an excerpt from the last issue:

For me, the best indicators that the worst is over are: 1) India and China are transitioning into their largest seasonal period of physical gold buying; 2) the “excess” Comex open interest appears to have substantially liquidated; 3) the stock charts are extremely oversold and some technical indicators are turning up.


In this issue I presented a couple of large cap ideas that have been extremely oversold, including some ideas for using options. I also updated some of my recent junior picks based on recent events that could drive these stocks higher.

Gold Will Soar Regardless Who’s President

We can ignore reality but we can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.   – Ayn Rand

Perhaps the most infuriating aspect of last night’s final “debate” is the suppression of the truth.  Throughout all three debtes, Hillary overtly avoided answering any direct quetions regarding her infamous emails, thankfully put on display for all to see by Wikileaks.

Last night she pivoted right to blaming it on the Russians.  Talk about conspiracy theory. It is highly improbable that the Russians hacked her illegal email accounts for the purpose of influencing the election.  But Hillary used this sound-byte to deflect away from the Truth.  All of the Truths exposed by the leaked emails which point to Hillary’s criminal activity, including collusion with the media (CNN specifically) to rig the outcome of her primary race and selling access to the State Dept and to Wall Street Banks for donations to the Clinton Foundation.  Those are just two of many acts of criminality exposed by the emails.

But in Hillary’s world, Truth is a liability which would prevent her from ascending to the Oval Office where she can peddle and steal  her way from an 8-figure net worth to a 9-figure net worth. Maybe her nickname will be “three commas.”

That said, we hope Hillary is elected because her supporters will not only end up regretting their choice, but it will adversely affect them and their families forever.

Regardless of who wins the election, gold  and silver are getting ready for another surprising move higher.   The Harry Dent  Jr’s of the world will be left grasping for excuses for why their prediction for a much lower gold price is so horribly wrong.

We discuss the tragic U.S. Presidential election and the reason why gold is getting ready to take off again in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

A Bear Market In Stocks Began In May 2015

Technically, the move in the stock market that began in March 2009, when the stock market bottomed after the 2008 financial market de facto collapse, should not be termed a “bull market” because it required several trillions of Central Bank and Government intervention to move the stock market.   Definitionally the stock market is no longer a “market” – rather it’s an intervention.

Having said that, with the entire financial world – especially Wall Street analysts and financial  media boobs – focused on the S&P 500 and the Dow, the NYSE Composite, which covers every stock traded on the NYSE, has begun what is likely a bear market that started from its record high of 11,254 on May 21, 2015:


As the graph above illustrates, the NYSE Composite index – every stock that trades on NYSE – is down close to 6% since May 2015.  The NYSE Comp is more representative of the stock and more reflective of the deteriorating conditions in the economy than are the SPX and Dow, which are used as propaganda tools by the financial market and political elitists.

In fact, as has been demonstrated in several places in the alternative media, as it turns out just a handful of the largest cap stocks are keeping the SPX and Dow in what appears to be a “bull market.”    This graph below sourced from Zerohedge shows the performance of the SPX with and without the infamous “FANG” stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG):

As you can see if you strip out the FANG stocks from the calculation of the SPX index, the index is flat going back to the beginning of 2015. Yet, the SPX hit an all-time high in August 2015. Qu’est-ce que c’est?  As explained in the ZH article:   The FANGS “have gained $570 billion of market cap or nearly 80% during the previous 19 months” [Jan 2015 – Aug 2016]…”if you subtract the FANGs from the S&P 500 market cap total, there had been virtually no gain in value at all.”

I wrote to my Short Seller Journal subscribers this past weekend:

NYA began diverging from the SPX and the Dow back then. It points to broad overall weakness in the stock market relative to the biggest stocks by market cap. This pattern in the broader stock market is also more reflective of the economic reality of a deteriorating economy. Small and mid-sized companies are experiencing deteriorating fundamentals which is translating into deteriorating market caps.  SSJ for October 16, 2016

The point here is that economic reality is diverging from the propaganda infused message that the Fed, Wall Street and politicians want us to buy into.  The housing market illustrates this perfectly.  I have been detailing in my blog the methodology by which the Government manipulates the new home sales statistics.  This morning it was reported that housing starts for September plunged 9% from August.  Of course the media puts its propaganda spin on this. For instance, Bloomberg attributes the drop to multifamily starts. But multifamily starts is the metric that gave the housing starts report any “legs” to begin with.  Marketwatch references a “durable recovery.”  But does this look like a durable recovery?


New single family home sales – despite the trillions of dollars infused into the housing market by the Federal Reserve and Government – never got any higher than where they were in 2008 after the housing bubble popped and sales had already dropped by 66%. Before that, the last time single family home sales were at Marketwatch’s “durable recovery” level was in 1995!

And in truth the methodology used by the Government to present new  home sales (Seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on highly questionable Census Bureau data collecting) grossly overstates the true level of new home sales at any given time.  The same can be said for the NAR’s existing home sales.  Like everything else in our system, the housing market activity is primarily a product of the propaganda and not real economic activity.

The point here is that underlying economy is far weaker than the propaganda coming from the elitists would have us believe.  They can stimulate fraud and deception all they want but ultimately they can not force a shrinking middle class with rapidly shrinking disposable income from spending money.

More important, you can make money from this insight because most stocks in the stock market have been going lower since mid-2015.  This pattern in the broader stock market is also more reflective of the economic reality of a deteriorating economy. Small and mid-sized companies are experiencing deteriorating fundamentals which is translating into deteriorating deteriorating market caps (from the latest Short Sellers Journal)

Every week I provide proprietary insight into the economy and markets in the Short Seller’s Journal.  I also highlight at least two or three short-sell ideas.   Most of these ideas have been working now since early August (late Fed to late July was rough).  As an example, in the September 18th issue I presented Credit Acceptance Corp, a subprime auto loan finance company with a balance sheet that is a ticking time bomb, with the stock at $198.60.   It’s trading today at $183 – down 7.8% in less than 4 weeks – despite a largely flat SPX in that timeframe.  CACC will eventually be cut in half from here, at least.

SSJ is a monthly subscription that is published weekly.  I also provide some ideas for using puts if you are not comfortable shorting stocks and I also disclose when I participate in the ideas in my own account.  You can cancel at any time – there is no minimum commitment. You can access more information on the subscription here:  Short Seller’s Journal.

Here’s another example of the insight and analysis provided in the SSJ:

Another interesting report out last was China’s exports for September, which were down 10% year over year in September vs. -3.3 expected. The US and Europe are China’s largest export markets. If China’s overall exports dropped 10%, it’s mathematically probable that US and EU imports from China were down more than 10% in September. It also implies and reinforces the thesis that US consumer spending is contracting (of course, if this drop in exports from China translates into a narrowed trade deficit for the US, that will be spun as a positive by the financial media!)

A Rigged Media And An Attempt To Rig The Election

We often criminalize behavior that is normal – Donna Brazile on ABC’s “This Week” in reference to Hillary Clinton giving access to the State Department in exchange for 6-figure donations to the Clinton Foundation.

Thank goodness for Wikileaks and the DNC and Podesta email dumps. There’s no question that the mainstream media is colluding with the Clinton Campaign to tip the election in HRC’s favor. For Obama to accuse Trump of “whining” about it is absurd. But, then again, Obama’s speech last week sounded like something out of “1984” or Goebbels’s Nazi Party Propaganda playbook. Moreover, Obama’s silence is defeaning with regard to HRC’s overt corruption and criminality per the Podesta emails.

As for whether or not the media is rigged, follow the money. According to analysis from the Center For Public Integrity, 430 people who work in journalism have donated almost $400,000 in total to both Presidential candidates. HOWEVER, these 430 journalists have given approximately $375,000 to HRC and roughly $15,000 to Trump. In other words, journalists have given 25x more money to HRC than to Trump.  Quite frankly, journalists should be forbidden from contributing to any political campaign – as should Federal Reserve officials, who are also throwing wads of money at HRC.

An analyst at the Center for Public Integrity wrote: Conventional journalistic wisdom holds that reporters and editors are referees on politics’ playing field — bastions of neutrality who mustn’t root for Team Red or Team Blue, either in word or deed, David Levinthal  LINK.

If you doubt that the media is trying to rig the election for Hillary, we can look at the invaluable Podesta email dump by Wikileaks, again which is being largely ignored by the mainstream media.   Donna Brazile, then-CNN contributor and now Hillary’s front-man consigliere at the DNC, is caught red-handed feeding Hillary questions in advance of a Townhall debate with Bernie Sanders – Podesta emails.  That link shows a copy of an email from Brazile to Podesta – HRC’s disgraced campaign Chairma – in which Brazile tips Podesta about a question on the death penalty in reference to which Brazile expressed “worry.”

If you don’t believe there’s a strong possibility that Brazile in her capacity a DNC Chairman had access to questions ahead of the Trump/Clinton debates and took full advantage of that, then you also believe there’s strong possibility that Santa Claus exists.  I guess Donna Brazile in a way is Hillary’s Santa Clause…

But then again, being from the bayou area of Louisiana – an area well-known for its corrupted politics, bootlegging and mobster activity, this is just standard operating procedure for Brazile.

Make no mistake, I do not in anyway support Trump’s candidacy.   The choice given to Americans for their next President is utterly tragic.  The blame falls squarely on the media. I don’t know how a media which was held to the highest standards of ethics and integrity would have prevented Trump from being the Republican candidate, but truthful, unbiased reporting would have no doubt prevented Hillary from candidacy for public office at any level of Government.

As for Bernie Sanders, thank god he’s not the Democratic candidate.  Hillary Clinton urinated and defecated all over him and his primary campaign.  And his response has been to say, “thank you may I have some more of that” by endorsing and campaigning for her.  I don’t know what is more pathetic, HRC’s actions or Sanders’ response.

The overarching tragedy in this whole ordeal is that a free press has been lost forever.  Bill Clinton’s enactment into law of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 was the final death knell for the concept of free press.  That legislation further enabled the cross-breeding of radio, cable, broadcasting and newspapers.  In 1983 50 corporations controlled the vast majority of all news media in the U.S.  By 2000 that number had fallen to six.   Now it’s five: Time Warner, Disney, News Corp, Bertelsmann (Germany, believe it or not).  General Electric’s NBC is a close 6th.   Other than News Corp, the mainstream media outlets of all six of those corporate conglomerates heavily endorse HRC’s campaign.

The fate of the media and of this 2016 Presidential campaign is the fault of all Americans. We only have ourselves to blame for the two atrocities being labelled “Presidential Candidates.”  We do not hold the press accountable for its actions anymore than we hold elected officials accountable.

At least the alternative media – largely the blogosphere – makes an attempt to elevate the truth.  Of course, the mainstream media has successfully smeared the alternative media reporting and commentary as “conspiracy theory.”   And if Obama has his way as expressed in his “truthiness” speech at Carnegie Mellon last week, the alternative media will soon be heavily, if not completely, censored out of existence.

A Rigged Media Is The Death Of Democracy

A press that is free to investigate and criticize the government is absolutely essential in a nation that practices self-government and is therefore dependent on an educated and enlightened citizenry.  – Thomas Jefferson

The control of the mainstream media by the wealthy elitist Establishment is nothing new.  If Watergate served any purpose, it was to send a message to those who wanted to take complete control of the political and economic system that control of the mainstream media was imperative.

The use of propaganda to shape public perception is as old as civilization.  Religion is the paramount example.  But the extreme bias in the mainstream media – especially CNN, Fox News, MSNC, New York Times and Washington Post – has become so blatant that even the hoi polloi is taking notice.

It’s become impossible to ignore all of the evidence pointing at Hillary Clinton’s overt, unabashed criminal activities.  Those who continue to support her choose to ignore the evidence and blame the information on Putin or on “conspiracy theorists.”  The fact that CNN refuses to report anything that runs contrary to the party line supporting the HRC narrative reinforces the “conspiracy theory” storyline.

It’s easier to swallow lies because recognizing truth would destroy the myths about America that were pounded into our brains starting in kindergarten.  Surely humans can’t be as evil as the tinfoil hats would have us believe…

In today’s Shadow of Truth episode, we discuss the attempt to rig the election in favor of HRC.  Hillary managed to use control of the media to defeat Bernie Sanders.  We also discuss our predictions for gold and silver:


Crony Communism: Hillary Clinton’s Game Plan For America

“The goal of socialism is communism.” Vladimir Lenin

Inferential Analytics (IA), the forecasting method we have created and use, has generated a new theme. IA themes define significant macro developments that are in progress. IA themes almost always become full-blown realities in time. This is our first article about the new theme, which is particularly threatening and disturbing.

If this theme develops as the IA model projects, the resulting new reality will have a profound effect on every United States citizen living either within or outside the country. (U.S. citizens are taxed no matter where in the world they reside.) While the entire American experience will be re-shaped by this new reality, citizens’ financial freedom, and therefore their overall liberty is particularly at risk. This theme extends beyond the United States, especially to Europe, but in this article we will focus on the U.S. situation.

Before introducing and detailing the new theme, here is some context.

Until now, the United States has been able to fund its massive, structural deficits and debts by leveraging its unique position as issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, frequently referred to as the petrodollar. The dollar’s reserve privilege has enabled the nation to artificially enhance America’s financial quality of life by creating out of nothing colossal quantities of the currency. By perpetuating a system that forces other nations to use the dollar, strong, unnatural demand has kept the currency from imploding in value despite its hyper-creation.

Among other things, this currency privilege has hidden rapidly escalating corruption within the American financial and economic system. The costs of this corruption have been funded by chronic deficits and surging debt; in other words, by excess currency creation, or money printing. If the costs of this corruption had, instead, been forced to be paid from the existing, and not an inflated money stock, the economy would have collapsed by now from the leeching of the lifeblood of any truly capitalistic system: namely, capital.

As the techniques of monetary debasement, deceit and plunder have become more sophisticated, reckless and brazen, the looting of the American economy has expanded to an epic degree. For example, we now know for a fact that the United States Army alone (not the military, just the Army), cannot account for $6,500,000,000,000.00 ($6.5 trillion) of the money it has spent. Despite the astronomical amount of this missing money, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of trillions that have been plundered from the nation by establishment corruption.

In the mid-1990s, when the escalating corruption within the Wall Street-centered global monetary and financial system had become so obvious that the Establishment eleech (our term for the “elite,” a word we no longer use because it does not describe their now totally parasitic nature) could no longer deny it with a straight face, a new term to describe the system was concocted: Crony Capitalism.

The term Crony Capitalism was meant to imply that the system remained capitalistic, even though a bit of cronyism had crept into it around the edges. Further, the term implied that it is natural for a certain amount of cronyism to accompany any capitalistic system, and that people should not be concerned about it, as it is a normal and expected development.

This was blatant propaganda and a lie. The term Crony Capitalism is a fundamental contradiction in terms, and a fallacy. It is like saying, “healthy corpse,” “honest thief,” “trustworthy liar,” or “loyal snitch.” Cronyism pollutes and destroys capitalism. They are natural enemies and polar opposites, and they cannot legitimately or naturally co-exist.

Through constant repetition, which is how lies are dressed up to appear true, the term crony capitalism took hold, and became the descriptor for what we were expected to believe was a slightly imperfect, but still fundamenally healthy and vibrant form of capitalism. This falsehood was believed, until now.

Today, people in nations around the world have figured out that the United States is deep within a debt vortex from which it can never escape; that its structural deficits are uncontainable unless the system flat-out collapses; that the dollar is a massive figment of the imagination, supported only by an ephemeral confidence completely disjointed from any logical justification for it; and that the nation’s socio-political reality is fractured, dysfunctional and irreversibly disintegrating at an accelerating rate.

Therefore, these international players are increasingly unwilling to play the dollar game, and are progressively withdrawing from the field. While the U.S. government and Crony Class are doing everything possible to keep the game alive, it is now obvious that they are failing.

With the United States approaching a time when it can no longer fund its structurally and systemically defective financial, monetary, economic, fiscal and socio-political contraptions with a combination of currency counterfeiting and the subtle extraction of wealth from the rest of the world, it is being left with only one means by which to perpetuate itself: plundering the private wealth of its own citizens.

This is the theme that has been identified by Inferential Analytics. We have named it: “Crony Communism.”

Crony Communism takes the absolute worst aspects of every former, parasitic national operating system that has existed in history, including socialism, communism, colonialism, tribalism, totalitarianism and statism and blends them into a new, malevolent, deceitful, destructive, deadening, militaristic, hyper-corrupt, soulless, and thoroughly evil form of human command and control. Its total financial and human cost will be unprecedented, if it plays out as the IA signals indicate it most likely will.

Crony communism is the actual “fundamental transformation,” or better termed “fundamental destruction” of the United States of America that Obama promised in 2008. The people should have listened to him more carefully when he said that, because he wasn’t kidding around.

Many have believed that communism will never happen in the United States, because it would hurt the Crony Class the worst, given that they possess the most money. What the people repeatedly fail to comprehend is that communism is intended for and inflicted upon them, but never upon the Crony eleech. History proves that the eleech live like royalty in communist regimes. Two of the most glaring examples are North Korea and Venezuela, but the phenomenon has been identical in every single communist system that has been implemented to date.

One notable example of this reality is Maria Gabriela Chavez, the 35 year old daughter of deceased Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, who has never held a real job in her life, yet who happens to be the country’s richest person with a net worth of $4.2 billion. This phenomenal wealth is thanks to the plunder her so-called communist father schemed for her to receive. As the Venezuelan people eat family pets to survive and starve in the streets, Maria Gabriela lifts not a finger to lessen their anguish, despite possessing a fortune that she could not possibly spend in two dozen lifetimes.

This illustrates the sheer hypocrisy of communist organizers: while they force wealth redistribution upon the citizens, they refuse to contribute one penny of their own wealth to anyone, let alone to the general welfare of their society. Communist organizers and their Crony Class brethren are not just greedy, they are cheap. Maria Gabriela’s pathological greed is shared by every single communist organizer we have researched, from Kim Jong Un to the Castros to the living, phony, self-righteous, well-known communist frauds in the United States.

The establishment’s vast wealth will never be subjected to communist expropriation. It will be stashed in various “Foundations,” which would be much better termed “Fraudations,” or “Slushfundations,” where it will be fully exempt from all forms of taxation and fees. Communist impoverishment will be for us, the people, not them, the establishment. Only the well-connected Crony eleech will be provided the necessary licenses to establish fraudations and thereby escape taxation and expropriation. The Clinton Slushfundation comes to mind, as a leading indicator of this sub-theme.

While it is not possible in this brief overview for us to outline in detail each of the building blocks that, combined, will result in the imposition of Crony Communism upon the nation and its people, we can provide a glimpse of some of the more important tactics that will be used. These factors are not theory; they are reality. Each and every one of these tactics is already in play at this time.

  • The notion of “After Tax Savings” will be destroyed. It will be said that only criminals or greedy, selfish, anti-social hoarders save money. Savers will be villified for hurting their fellow citizens and “the economy” by not spending. All income net of taxes will be forced to be spent, to prop up a phony economy structured to enrich the Crony eleech. Any legacy money existing when people die will be forfeited to the state via confiscatory death taxes such as those outlined, as a first step, in Clinton’s campaign platform. Zero and negative interest rates will ensure that savings are expropriated by banking institutions controlling those funds, and by inflation, which is guaranteed to significantly escalate. (See Venezuela.)

  • The “cost structure of life” will be increased to make it impossible for people to save, get ahead or become independent of the state. This cost structure will include ever-increasing taxes; health insurance premiums; insurance deductibles; medical costs; licensing, registration, inspection and reporting fees; surcharges; arbitrary fines; food costs; energy costs; currency devaluation- and inflation-related costs; and virtually every other category of expense related to simply surviving in the crony communist society. As people become impoverished and can no longer afford these costs, they will receive subsidies while those who are not yet impoverished will continue to be charged the full boat until they, too, require subsidies as they disappear into the financial morass. (See Obamacare.)

  • Citizens will be required to file not just income tax returns, but personal asset returns detailing every financial asset and physical possession they own. A financial dossier will exist on every citizen, making it easy for the state to pinpoint and expropriate whatever wealth it wants. Executive Orders will be in place allowing the government to seize any and all assets on any pretext it creates, such as ambiguously defined “emergency situations.” Please note: such Executive Orders already exist, just like everything else in this list.

  • Cash will be eliminated so that any money still possessed by citizens is electronic, non-withdrawable, controlled and available for seizure. This objective has been publicly announced and is on a fast-track development path right now.

  • Entirely new taxes, fees and fines will be imposed upon individuals and businesses. These charges will be said to promote “fairness,” “equality,” “togetherness,” and similar high-sounding but totally phony terms, and will be named such things as “Climate Improvement Contribution,” “Wage Harmonization Donation,” “Refugee Resettlement Offering,” and “Financial Equalization Gratuity.” Once one brand new tax category has been fully implemented, a new one will be introduced, in a never-ending cycle that will only stop when all the people’s money has been stolen and nothing is left to loot.

  • Wealth taxes will be imposed on all who possess assets net of the tax and fee dragnet, an idea that has been formally introduced by the IMF. Please note that IMF employees do not pay income taxes on their lavish, taxpayer-funded salaries; they are exempt, which is a perfect illustration of our fundamental point that taxes and fees will be meant for the people, and not the establishment eleech.

  • Mass immigration will be used to destroy the nation’s identity, skew elections and reduce resistance to the overthrow of the nation’s institutions, values and traditions. It will also be used as an excuse to create an entirely new set of taxes and fees, to pay the exorbitant costs of providing food, housing, medical care, transportation and other resettlement and living costs of immigrants and “refugees.” Currently, 70% of the American population has less than $1,000 in savings. The communist organizers never explain who is supposed to pay the costs of bringing millions of immigrants into the country, because they have no answer and don’t care; their agenda is domestic regime change. The United States is already bankrupt, so “what difference, at this point, does it make?” They will simply counterfeit more currency, even if it means hyperinflation, an event they will sidestep via indexation clauses that will benefit them, but not the people.

  • Guns will be banned, which has happened in every single communist and totalitarian regime throughout history. Gun possession by government agents, members of the eleech, and mercenaries protecting the eleech will be legal and authorized. See Venezuela.

  • The Alternative Media will be shut down, and replaced by State Media which will become the monopoly provider of “news” and “information.” This explains why the MSM is currently licking the establishment’s boots and pushing its agenda with media bias so extreme it is actually laughable and absurd. They realize there is a huge payday for them as State Media monopolists under Crony Communism. Again, state control of the media is a consistent theme in all communist regimes.

For IA to signal a theme, literally hundreds of datapoints must converge upon a common story. While the above list contains just a small number of factors, it is indicative of how this new theme has developed.

The objective behind the vast array of taxes, surcharges, regulatory and licensing fees, inspection fees, fines and the like will be to transfer the maximum possible amount of private assets from the citizens to those in charge of the Crony Communist regime. As the people are systematically stripped of their assets and impoverished, they will become increasingly and ultimately totally dependent upon the state for their existence. This, of course, is the point.

Accompanying the full-blown overthrow of the nation by the for-profit (for them) Crony Communist regime will be an endless litany of slogans, many of which have already been used to brainwash and confuse the people. Examples abound, such as, “Change We can Believe In,” “Owning the Future,” “One American Family,” Stronger Together,” “Forward,” “Hope and Change,” and the like. Soon, we will be hearing new ones such as, “Service over Selfishness,” “Don’t Get: Give,” “Talent Must be Shared with All,” all of them deriving from the famous communist mantra, “From Each According to His Ability, to Each According to his Needs.” Slogans have been a cornerstone of communist overthrows throughout history.

Every single element of Crony Communism outlined above is either already in place to a certain degree, or has been officially proposed and recommended by the government and/or the Crony Class mouthpieces and shills. The only thing that has not happened, yet, is for all of these elements to be pulled together into one, interconnected system of Crony Communism. It is the amalgamation of the individual elements that is now demonstrably underway, and this is the critical change that has been detected by the Inferential Analytics model. This change vastly accelerates the imposition of Crony Communism upon the nation, and makes all the difference.

Inferential Analytics is a descriptive, predictive and prescriptive forecasting method. Typically, we omit the prescriptive aspect in our reports, because we view people as intelligent beings who are best able to plan for their own futures once they have been given a good idea about what is heading toward them.

However, in this case, we are going to depart from convention and issue a prescriptive statement. We are doing this because Crony Communism represents such a radical, sweeping and dangerous departure from everything the American people know and value that many might simply be incapable of believing it can happen here, internalizing what it will mean to them personally, and taking the necessary steps to protect themselves from its onslaught.

As we await further information (the outcome of the 2016 elections will have enormous implications for the Crony Communism theme), two prescriptions for readers are these: First, politically speaking, if you support any long-term, professional politicians, you are voting for Crony Communism, because those people have everything to gain from it, and are working to make it happen. Second, financially speaking, you need to slam on the brakes right now and get your houses in order. This means that all expenses not absolutely necessary should immediately be eliminated. You need to generate and protect precious financial resources however possible, because they will be necessary to fund your escape from Crony Communism, should it go full-blown. We can assure decent, principled, moral, productive, tax-paying, everyday American people that you will not want to live for one minute under Crony Communism, nor will you want your loved ones to live under it, either.

We regret feeling obligated to delineate the Crony Communism theme, and pray that the IA forecast is wrong. Given the accuracy of the IA method, which has been successfully back-tested for many years, we believe it would be wrong of us not to speak out publicly at this time, because this theme has a very high probability of coming true unless the people rise up to stop it.

Stewart Dougherty

October 13, 2016

Stewart Dougherty is the creator of Inferential Analytics, a forecasting method that applies to events proprietary, time-tested principles of human instinct, desire and action. In his view, forecasting methods not fundamentally based upon principles of human action are unlikely to be reliable over time. He is a graduate of Tufts University (BA) and Harvard Business School (MBA), and has developed IA over a period of 15+ years.

The Big Retail Sales Lie

There’s a direct correlation between the scale and quantity of lies coming from Hillary Clinton and the Government. Why? It’s election season, of course. It’s easy enough to dismiss Hillary’s plea for debate viewers to go to her campaign website to see “fact” checking.  We know how easy it is for her to hide the truth when she has assistance from the State Department, FBI and Obama.  If you believe Hillary Clinton, you also believe in the Easter Bunny.

But it’s also easy to fact check the Census Bureau’s retail sales reports.   Now, it’s easy enough to believe that the Government would manipulate the statistics in order to help the incumbent party maintain control the White House.  But it’s also easy to fact-check the Census Bureau’s tabulations for monthly retail sales, notwithstanding the fact that the Census Bureau is caught producing fraudulent statistics on a regular basis.

Today, for instance, they released their “advance estimate” for retail sales for September. The Census Bureau would have us believe that retail sales increased .6% from August to September.  But this was based on the Government’s politically expedient “seasonally adjusted” calculation.

Simple math disproves the validity of the “adjustments.”  The report shows “not adjusted” total retail sales as estimated by the Census.  August was $471.3 billion – or $15.2 billion per day.  September was $445.4 billion – or $14.8 billion per day – down 2.6% from August to September on a per day basis .   In retail sales terms, a 2.6% decline month to month is equivalent to a steep plunge.  (click image to enlarge)


Theoretically, the seasonal “adjustment” offsets the day-count difference between August and September. But what about the 3-day Labor Day holiday weekend?   This year Labor Day fell on September 5.  Presumably that weekend should have compensated for any “seasonal”differences between August (back to school?) and September.  BUT on a sales/day basis, September retail sales plunged from August.

Here’s a definitive “fact check” on the Census Bureau retail sales report.  The retail sales report is showing a 1% increase per the “adjusted” number from August to September. However,  Black Box Intelligence, the best source for both private and public company restaurant industry data, is reporting that restaurant traffic fell 3.5% in September from August.  In fact, traffic counts have dropped at least 3%  in four of the last six months. Same-store-sales dropped .5%.

This private sector source of data is consistent with data that I have been presenting in the Short Seller’s Journal for trucking and freight shipments for August and September and for actual auto sales numbers, which are declining at an increasing rate, along with the rise in auto loan delinquencies.   In fact, according to Fitch the default rate in subprime auto loans is now running at 9% and is expected to be at 10% by year-end.  Fitch is usually conservative in its estimates.  I would bet the real default rate will be well over 10% by the end of 2016.

One final significant datapoint released last week was auto sales for September. The “headline” report showed a 6% SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) gain in September over August for domestically produced autos. However, auto sales typically increase from August to September as Labor Day sales drive September car sales. Year over year, domestic car sales plunged 19% and truck sales were down 1%.

Now for the reality-check. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, September sales for GM, Ford and Chrysler declined 0.6%, 8.1% and 0.9% respectively. Toyota and Nissan reported gains while Honda’s sale dropped. Moreover, it took heavy discounting to drive sales. In fact, incentive-spending by OEM’s on a per-unit average basis set a single-month record, topping the previous single-month record set in December 2008. Think about that for moment.  – from the October 9 issue of the Short Seller’s Journal

The bottom line is that most, if not all, data coming from private-sector sources conflicts and undermines the “seasonally adjusted” garbage data reported by the Government. Just like all other news reported by the media that is sourced from the Government, the Government economic reports are yet another insidious form of propaganda tailored for political expedience.  But propaganda does not create real economic activity and the middle class is becoming increasingly aware that it’s being told nothing but lies from the Government.  Today’s Government generated retail sales report for September is a prime example.


The SDR Is A Trojan Horse For Global Elitists

An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.  – Alan Greenspan, “Gold And Economic Freedom” (1966)

The Daily Coin posted an interview with Dr. Warren Coats, one the architects of the SDR.   This is a must-listen for anyone who wants to understand how and why the SDR is nothing more than the monetary instrument of the one world, one Government globalists.

At first, Coats’ statements are infuriating – especially the assertions that are entirely incorrect, like “China doesn’t produce much gold” [sic] – but if you stick with it, you begin to understand why Sun Tsu said “keep your friends close and your enemies closer.”

TDC’s conversation with Dr. Coats provides invaluable insight into the “belly of the beast.” Throughout the interview, you can hear Rothschild’s famous quote about money echoing: “GIve me control of a nation’s currency and I care not who makes the laws.”

In this latest episode of the Shadow of Truth, we dissect Coats’ answers to several of Rory’s questions and explain why the SDR is nothing more than a Trojan horse of sorts designed to provide a “plausible” replacement of the dollar and, more significantly, to advance the New World Order implementation.

To Hillary Clinton, Voters Are Necessary Evils

Hillary Clinton with respect to her Syrian “no-fly” zone policy:  “So our missiles, even if they are standoff missiles so we’re not putting our pilots at risk—you’re going to kill a lot of Syrians,” she said. “So all of a sudden this intervention that people talk about so glibly becomes an American and NATO involvement where you take a lot of civilians.” – Goldman Sachs speech via the Podesta emails

Contrary to her many lies and half-truths issued during the debate, people, including Americans, are quite expendable to Hillary Clinton.  But more on that in a moment.

A colleague of mine passed on a blog post by Brandon Smith which posits a theory that  somehow Trump will be “allowed” to win and then the elitists will let the system c crash. They don’t want one of “theirs”  in the line of fire when it becomes impossible to keep the system from collapsing. This is not an uncommon school of thought in the alternative media audience and Hillary Clinton is firmly ensconced in the political neoconservative fascism of the elitist Establishment that controls DC for the most part.  Brandon Smith generally provides good insight and compelling analysis of current events.

But if Smith’s specific prophecies ever came to fruition, I’d give his arguments serious consideration. Like the rest of us, only his general economic and political trend prophecies play out.  Predicting Brexit passage is not unique to him.  I always thought it would pass, as did many others.  His use of “global elitists” is incorrect.  It should be “western elitists.” They DO NOT have any control over Russia/China and that’s why the next big thing will be a war by proxy in Syria that likely will lead to some form of an escalated conflict – possibly in the S China Sea and Ukraine. Hopefully it won’t lead to the nuclear option, although it’s pretty obvious that both Russia and the U.S. are preparing for that possibility.

If Trump gets elected, it’s because there were too many people who showed up to vote for him and against HRC – not because Smith’s “global” elitists “let him win.” They can rig the vote count if it’s close. But not if Trump were to garner enough votes to win by more than a few % points. Exit polling is a form of check and balance that prevents complete confiscation of the voting process.

Smith erroneously ignores the “random probabilities” variable – maybe because he never studied advanced statistics in the context of economic models. “Randomness” – it’s a law of nature.  No one can control that. Just ask the Nobel “rocket” scientists who told us Long Term Capital was perfectly hedged against any and all market occurrences.  I think the western elitists have more control than most people understand or are willing to believe – especially the ilk that supports HRC – but not nearly the control that Smith attributes.

I finally watched the entire debate. I think it was closer than Trump supporters  want to believe. The stench of the propaganda drooling from between HRC’s smiling face-sewer was sickening, especially given that her supporters truly believe that HRC is being genuine. She doesn’t care about the middle class or women or minorities any more than any other DC politician. Constituents are a “necessary evils” to these people – warm bodies with a vote. Certainly that’s what HRC believes, which was made evident by the quotes pulled from the speeches she gave to Wall Street banks – for which she was paid $600 thousand per appearance.

“I’m Kind Of Far Removed” From The Struggles Of The Middle Class “Because The Life I’ve Lived And The Economic, You Know, Fortunes That My Husband And I Now Enjoy.” – Hillary Clinton to a Goldman Sachs audience of HRC Foundation and Campaign donors via the material thankfully leaked by Wikileaks

Perhaps the Donald’s best attack on her was  when he asked how come she won’t use any portion of her $100s of millions in wealth to fund her campaign.  All of her campaign money comes from wealthy donors who will receive big favors – mostly sizeable Government contracts awarded to their businesses, or the maintenance of the carried interest tax loophole (George Soros will make certain that remains intact) or access to our markets and defense weaponry (Saudi Arabia, which is a huge contributor to the Clinton “Foundation”).

By the way, how on earth did Bill and Hillary Clinton manage to amass hundreds of millions of dollars in net worth? 

Make no mistake, I am not supporting Trump. In fact, I have not voted since 1992.  Voting is irrelevant. Just ask Obama supporters who now get it (most of them still are oblivious or will not make disparaging remarks about Obama out of fear of being a labelled a “racist”).