Category Archives: Financial Markets

Bill Murphy: Bill Murphy: The Fundamentals Will Push Gold & Silver To Spectacular Levels

“Some sort of Black Swan event will come out of nowhere and cause an explosive move in gold and silver” – Bill Murphy on Shadow of Truth

In the absence of intervention, gold and silver would be trading at a level that is a few multiples higher from they “trade” now. At some point, some entity will want to take possession of a big “chunk” of gold or silver and will stand for delivery of the physical with the intent to remove that gold or silver from Comex vaults.

For now the big accumulators of physical gold (China, Russia, India) are content with the current rigged market price of gold as long as the west can continue to make deliveries into these countries. But at some point the west’s “cupboard” will be bare and big buyers will see what the Comex really has in its vaults. It’s at that point when the precious metals market will become interesting.

There is always the threat that the Shanghai Gold Exchange begins arbitraging out the price difference between the physical market (eastern hemisphere) and paper market (Comex, LBMA). Currentlysilver trades in China’s physical settlement market (Shanghai Futures Exchange) at a significant premium to the price on the COMEX paper market. The week of October 17, 2016 the average difference was well above $0.80 per ounce. This represents approximately a 45% difference. How large must the difference become before the physical market naturally overwhelms the paper market? The difference in the physical gold market is not quiet as dramatic as the physical silver market, but it seems a natural progression will occur in the not too distant future. The physical market is filled with people that are not interested in paper contracts. These people are in real markets located in the eastern hemisphere – China, India and other countries. In these countries gold is either part of the culture or there is an understanding of gold’s role as a currency.

In today’s episode with GATA/’s Bill “Midas” Murphy about the extreme intervention in the precious metals market and the catalysts that will eventually override the Central Bank intervention.

The Clinton Syndrome: The Establishment’s Weapon for National Conquest (Part 1)

IRD is pleased to present the next Stewart Dougherty guest post.  In this analysis, SD defines and analyzes a phenomenon that most of us find thoroughly confounding:  how can anyone with two brain cells possibly vote for Hillary Clinton?

There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.”  –  John Adams, 2nd President of the United States of America

The 2016 United States presidential race was never intended to be an election. Rather, it has been psychologically engineered from the beginning to be a for-profit overthrow of America by an increasingly powerful and predatory establishment cabal, which seeks not just power, but full-spectrum dominion over the nation’s people, wealth and institutions. It has been rigged to be the exact opposite of an election: namely, a planned regime change that will then falsely be called after the fact an “election outcome,” “popular mandate” and “expression of the will of the people.” It will deliver a multi-trillion dollar post-“election” payday to the establishment insiders who have orchestrated it and nothing but ongoing misery for the people. This “election” is a carefully crafted coup that will result in the progressive annihilation of American freedom and liberty, personal and financial, for all citizens except those within the Establishment’s reach.

The longstanding purpose of this election has been to impose upon the people a new national operating system that we have named “Crony Communism.” (This theme is detailed in our previous article entitled: “Crony Communism:   Hillary Clinton’s Game Plan for America.” – LINK).  To effect this regime change, a new psychological syndrome was engineered, using proven techniques that predictably alter the thinking patterns and decision making capabilities of susceptible individuals. Psychological engineering is not science fiction; it is real, powerful and now, and its direct effects are being exhibited today by tens of millions of voters throughout the country.

The economic implications of the coming regime change will be monumental – and the financial effects on individuals severe – if people do not take steps now to prepare and protect themselves. We will offer some suggestions in this regard in a follow-up article (Part 2). Our objective in this article is to give you a clear understanding of what is happening, at least as we see it.

As readers of our previous Inferential Analytics articles know, prior to naming and describing a particular theme, we provide a snapshot of the contextual landscape so you can understand how the theme developed.

Before continuing with the context, we would like to emphasize that we do not earn, or seek to earn one penny from our articles. We write because the themes being created lately by our Inferential Analytics (IA) model are so troubling that we feel a moral obligation to share them. In 15+ years of doing this work, we have never before seen themes as profoundly dystopic as the ones we see today. Our IA themes point to a fundamentally disintegrating American future that we believe 95+% of the people have no idea is coming. The future that IA is indicating will be extremely dangerous for the unaware and unprepared. We believe this is the last chance for the nation to reverse course. We write in order to help people see what is happening. Our motivation is as simple as that.

Context for the New Theme:

From August 23 – 28, 1973, a bank robber by the name of Jan-Erik Olsson unwittingly made a significant contribution to the understanding of human psychology, particularly of the abnormal, or at a minimum, the counterintuitive variety.

Olsson robbed Kreditbanken, a bank located in Norrmalmstorg, a neighborhood within the city of Stockholm, Sweden. During the robbery, Olsson took four employees hostage for a period of six days. As their captivity progressed, the hostages began to exhibit positive attitudes toward their captor, which were contrary to the emotions of anger, resentment and rejection that psychologists would have expected in the circumstances.

Nils Bejerot, a criminologist, medical professor and researcher who specialized in the study of addiction coined the term “Stockholm Syndrome” to describe the phenomenon. Even though this term, also known as “capture-bonding,” was created to describe the behavior of a mere four persons taken hostage during the robbery of a small bank in a small neighborhood of a relatively small city in a small country, it immediately struck a global chord. It became and remains one of the best known medical and psychological syndromes in the world, and has extraordinary name recognition to this day not just among experts, but common people as well.

In Bejerot’s diagnosis, those with Stockholm Syndrome develop favorable feelings of trust and/or affection toward their captor(s); negative feelings toward those (e.g., the police) who are trying to rescue them from their captor(s); provide support and assistance to their captor(s); and at a certain point exhibit a lack of desire to be rescued from their captor(s) at all.

The fact that the term went internationally viral shortly after its announcement begged the question, “Why?” The answer appeared after additional research into the syndrome was conducted. It turned out that the Stockholm Syndrome can also develop among a much larger prospective cohort that includes abused women and children; POWs; concentration camp prisoners; cult members; and incest victims. The term “Stockholm Syndrome” shone a verbal light onto a far broader psychological phenomenon that until then had been lingering in the shadows.

The discovery of the Stockholm Syndrome, which is tangential to a powerful and potentially extremely dangerous psychological condition known as “identifying with the aggressor,” proved that people can actually come to admire an individual (or individuals) who commands, controls, exploits and abuses them. This was excellent news for psychopathic predators of all kinds, whose dirty work just got easier for them, and bad news for everyone else. Perhaps it should be no surprise that predators in greater and greater numbers have been running amok ever since. In fact, one of the emerging themes we track is “Predation.” Predation is a serious problem in our world, and it is spinning out of control according to the data we analyze.

The Clinton Syndrome

At Inferential Analytics, we have zeroed in on what we believe is the most sweeping psychological syndrome ever discovered. It affects literally tens of millions of people, and has no parallel in scale, scope or consequence that we can find in medicine or psychology.

We have named it the “Clinton Syndrome,” after career politician Hillary Clinton.

The Clinton Syndrome, a variant of Stockholm Syndrome, is a condition in which a voter develops positive feelings about and favorably identifies with a politician who has demonstrated, over a period of decades, a consistent behavior pattern of dishonesty, deceit, avarice, corruption, secretiveness, paranoia, rage, volatility, graft, dissembling, insincerity, disdain, theft, abusiveness, hypocrisy, scapegoating, lawlessness, subversion, war-mongering, nation-state destruction and murder. (In our view, state-sponsored murder is ordinary murder dressed up in false righteousness and rouge, and is actually more despicable.)

While the named malignant characteristics are many, every single one of them has been exhibited, most on a repeated basis spanning decades, by Hillary Clinton. These lifelong behaviors have been documented time and again by numerous, non-related sources; are no longer conjecture but proven fact; and are simply beyond dispute or debate. Taken in the aggregate, they define what we call a “political predator.” It is worth mentioning that the abnormal psychological characteristics exhibited by sexual and political predators are similar, and that these two birds of a feather sometimes come together; like attracts like.

We want to emphasize that Inferential Analytics is a wholly apolitical forecasting method. Furthermore, we are not engaged in politics as campaigners, donors, lobbyists, strategists, bundlers, organizers, advisors, consultants, supporters, sycophants or in any other way whatsoever. We are researchers, and we solely study the cards that history tosses onto the table of time and events. Truth is our only agenda, though finding it can be difficult and expensive. In our corrupt, dishonest world, Truth, is endlessly hunted down by Falsehood, its armed, dangerous, dirty and extremely well-funded enemy. Truth has been forced into exile in order to survive, and only rarely makes a public appearance, as it fleetingly has, for example, on the balcony of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.

Getting back to the Clinton characteristics, we know for a fact that Hillary Clinton has repeatedly lied to Congress and to the people; that as Secretary of State, she threw entire nations into chaos. In one instance alone, Libya, this resulted in the murder and maiming of tens of thousands of innocent civilians, and the grotesque execution of its leader, about which she joked and laughed: “We came; we saw; he died.” [Starts cackling]; that she and her husband stole furniture from the White House when they left it in 2001, which they subsequently were forced to return in what to normal people – but not to them – would have been shame; and that subsequently, while a centi-millionaire, she stole furniture from the State Department and placed it in her own house, demonstrating cheapness and kleptomania of an almost unbelievable magnitude; that she has shown sheer, utter, holier-than-thou disdain for those who hold beliefs, ideals and/or religious convictions different from her own (the “irredeemable” “deplorables”; Roman Catholics; conservative Christians; etc.); that she has been verbally and sometimes physically abusive toward her personal staff, colleagues and even the Secret Service personnel who risk their lives to protect her; that her temper is explosive, as reported by a large number of independent sources who have witnessed her rages first hand; that she has openly admitted to being a hypocrite who says one thing in private, and a totally opposite thing on the same subject in public, in order to pander to the particular audience she is addressing at the time and thereby hustle votes; that the “Pay for Play” collusion between Secretary of State Clinton and her family “Foundation” has been rampant and involves epic dollar sums; that she now endlessly needles, scolds and provokes Russia, a major nuclear power, after her “Foundation” (better known as a Slush Fund) accepted a $120,000,000.00 ($120 MILLION) bribe in exchange for her greenlighting a Russian deal to purchase 20% of America’s limited uranium reserves. She does this to demagogically deflect attention away from her corruption and graft; that the Middle East is littered with the corpses of the innocent thanks to her deadly, reckless, insouciant and vicious war-mongering and military adventurism; that she, her husband and her cabal have subverted the very heart of U.S. law enforcement and justice, at the highest levels of its institutions, for personal political gain; that she deserted her post, lifted not a finger to assist and thereby issued a death sentence against four American heroes in Benghazi, and then repeatedly lied through her teeth about the incident, even to the victims’ heartbroken parents; that she lies and waffles about her support for secret, establishment “treaties” such as the TPP, which is reviled by the people but held up by her in private as “the gold standard,” only to back down when she was caught red-handed in her dishonesty and hypocrisy; that she accepts millions of dollars in “donations” and “speaking fees” (aka, bribes) from Wall Street plutocrats, and then has the gall to tell everyday voters that she’s behind them, and is going to bring Wall Street to heel; that her family “Foundation” actually stole disaster relief donations made to help some of the poorest and most unfortunate people on earth, the Haitians, demonstrating greed gone exponential; that she totally disregards the Rule of Law, which to her is for the Little People, and replaces it with the Rule of Hillary, which exists only for her and over which she is the sole adjudicator; that she believes in “totally open borders,” something completely rejected by the American people and diametrically opposed to any form of common sense and that was only revealed when private documents never intended to be seen by the public were released; that she and her family Slush Fund gladly accept millions from the leaders of countries known for subjugating women and throwing gay people off of roof tops, and then has the sheer hypocrisy to court the votes of women and gays, saying she’s got their backs; and the list goes on and on and on, year after year after year.

Her tricks, schemes and gambits are not one-off, occasional departures from decent, moral and respectable behavior. Rather, it is as if they are chiseled on a granite tablet as her personal “Ten Commandments” and standard operating procedures. (“Thou Shalt Lie;” “Thou Shalt Steal;” “Thou Shalt Be a Hypocrite;” “Thou Shalt Find Murder Hilarious,” etc.) They are Hillary’s own, homespun “Rules for Radicals,” perhaps also dedicated by her to Lucifer, just as her role model and hero Saul Alinsky’s “Rules” were dedicated to Lucifer, literally . Her personal commandments and way of behaving will tear this nation to shreds if she is empowered to continue on her path, with impunity, as President of the United States, and becomes backed by the vast, militarized government enforcement network that will be used to silence any critics of her destructiveness, corruption and criminality.

None of these Clinton facts is disputable. They are documented, cross-documented, confirmed and undeniable. The scandals in which she is endlessly embroiled are real, and we all know they are real. Yet astonishingly, there remain millions of voters who completely ignore these facts, and remain supportive of Clinton’s presidential candidacy. Out of a duty to truth, we have an obligation to ask ourselves: “What is going on here?”

Inferential Analytics is about identifying existing themes, inferring the likely full-blown realities that will grow out of those themes, and then forecasting the changes such full-blown realities will create.

The theme here is self-evident: the Clinton Syndrome is real, and is propelling Clinton to a possible presidential victory. That the Clinton Syndrome exists is the only possible explanation for the fact that millions of people actually voted for her in the primary elections, and that millions more already have or are going to vote for her in the national presidential “election,” despite her ignominious past.

The next phase, which we will know late in the evening of November 8, 2016, could be the full-blown reality of a Clinton presidency, should she be elected. This would demonstrate that the Clinton Syndrome had overtaken the minds of a majority of voters.

The fact is that the Clinton Syndrome makes no logical sense. It makes no logical sense for a voter to think favorably about a lifelong political predator who has immersed herself in nothing but scandal, corruption, criminality, lies, chaos and destruction. Given that it is not logical, normal or comprehensible, the question becomes, “How on earth did the Clinton Syndrome come about in the first place?”

The Clinton Syndrome is the product of the most sophisticated psychological engineering campaign ever unleashed upon the mind of humankind. It reflects a relentless, non-stop, multi-year, multi-originated, multi-faceted bombardment of the American psyche with propaganda, brainwashing, mind control and massive lies. Hitler was good at this kind of thing, but his tactics were in the Dark Ages compared to the hyper-sophisticated techniques being used upon Americans today to mass-activate the pathological Clinton Syndrome.

This carpet-bombing of the American mind with weapons of mass mental destruction does not require anything even close to 100% effectiveness in order to create the planned electoral outcome. If roughly 70,000,000 voting age Americans succumb to it, the Clinton Syndrome will be victorious. This will result in a for-profit crony communist regime change taking place in the United States. The payoff for the cronies will be in the multiple trillions of dollars in Clinton’s first term alone, which explains the enormous effort that has gone into the deliberate establishment warping of the American consciousness.

The barrage of psychological engineering has been orchestrated, conducted, aided and abetted by an establishment cabal that includes the Mainstream Media, including every single major television network; every single mainstream radio station; virtually every single major city newspaper; every non-major-city newspaper that runs syndicated, mainstream columns; every major website running on-screen advertisements; all search engine providers that skew search results; all leading social media operators; every mainstream magazine; the DNC and the RNC (the latter of which has done basically nothing to support and everything possible to undermine its candidate); a huge percentage of existing politicians including dozens of turncoat establishment Republicans who are cashing in on the current corruption and are adamantly opposed to any kind of change and who are therefore torpedoing their party’s candidate at every turn; professional, violence-funding regime change agitators such as Soros; virtually all of Wall Street and the financial establishment; the Federal Reserve System which has printed trillions of dollars’ worth of counterfeit dollars to keep the false illusion of normalcy alive; government agencies such as the BLS that concoct phony numbers to support the Big Economic Lie; countless other cronies who stuff billions in their pockets from the endemic corruption; and even the Director of the FBI, the Attorney General, the President of the United States and his wife.

A full listing of the individuals, corporations and institutions that have purposefully created the Clinton Syndrome would require dozens of pages of single-spaced text to fully disclose. It is no wonder that it has been triggered en masse.

This is historic. There has never in our history been such a coordinated establishment onslaught against one and for the other candidate in a national presidential election. As they say, “follow the money,” and that is what this election is all about. It has absolutely nothing to do with the good of the people, or the nation. Cronyism and its filthy lucre stink to high Heaven, and that is the foul odor you smell all around you.

Central to the triggering of the Clinton Syndrome has been a litany of campaign lies and political bribes. The citizens have been told that already broke Social Security will be broadened to cover millions more people no matter whether they have paid into it or not; thet already-broke Medicare and Medicaid will be expanded; that student debts will be wiped out; that college will be free; that free or subsidized, universal health care is assured; that massive, government-funded infrastructure projects will create high-wage jobs that they can get; that wages will be increased and equalized; and that a wide array of additional welfare programs, subsidies and government giveaways await, as long as voters turn over their minds to the Clinton Syndrome.

Clinton pre-empts voters who might wonder and ask, “Who is going to pay for all of this?” by telling them that, of course, it is the “rich” who will pay for it. As Clinton has repeatedly stated in her speeches and during the debates, “we’re going to go where the money is.” This is pure communistic cant and the rank politicization of envy, which cynically feeds upon the financial despair of millions of American citizens. The people’s financial morass has, in fact, been directly created by career political predators like Clinton herself, whose policies have robbed the nation blind and plunged it into over $120,000,000,000,000.00 ($120 trillion) of existing and contingent debt that can never possibly be repaid in dollars bearing any monetary resemblance whatsoever to the dollars existing today. America’s debt will be repaid in the equivalent of hyper-inflated Venezuelan bolivars, if the debt holders are lucky.

In the final debate, on three separate occasions, Clinton said, “I will not add one penny to the debt.” This lie is so preposterous that they should have ended the debate the first time she said it, sent everyone home, and turned off the lights. The government’s own statistics, generated by such agencies as the Office of Management and Budget show beyond a shadow of a doubt that the nation’s deficit and debt crises are spiraling out of control, and this is without including Clinton’s proposed, radical expansion of crony communistic state spending. Every single “tax the rich” scheme hatched in the past by political hacks has failed, from “millionaire taxes” to “luxury goods taxes.” Not one of them has brought in the expected revenues, and virtually all of them have been discontinued because they were abject failures. The idea that her “tax the rich” schemes will actually pay for massive, full-scale government control of and hegemony over the populace is absurd, and her lie that “I will not add one penny to the debt” is so egregious that it should be prosecutable in a court of law. Unfortunately, most Americans, who are just struggling to get by, don’t have the time to fact-check a professional liar’s lies.

On November 9, 2016, should the Clinton Syndrome psychological engineering scheme prevail, we project that somewhere in the order of 100,000,000 Americans, primarily its producers, will feel something more powerful than anger: grim resolve. They will know deep in their hearts that the nation they have known and loved is gone, and that it is never coming back. They will know deep in their minds that the malignant ethics of corruption, looting, immorality and structural inequality that stand at the very foundation of crony communism will seep into and infect every aspect of their lives. They will know that the exorbitant cost of crony communism will not just impoverish them financially, but will destroy the plans, hopes and dreams for the future that they and their loved ones hold dear. They will know in their souls that their freedom and liberty have been sacrificed once and for all upon the establishment’s dark altar of greed. And they will do something about it.

We believe the United States is on the cusp of a combined “John Galt” and “Gresham’s Law” event, the economic implications of which will be unprecedented and profound. We believe that millions of productive Americans will refuse to be serfs to a corrupt, crony communistic, regime, and that they will quietly but effectively begin to shut down. The “people of the mind,” the honest, decent, hard-working, entrepreneurial, productive, tax-generating citizens are going to say, “No more.” They are not going to work 60 hours a week for scraps, only to enrich crony communist plunderers who will live like kings and queens while producing nothing but exploitation.

The producers are going to give the middle finger to the money sucking political predators who rant about how they are “going to go where the money is” to pay for their false, arithmetically impossible, dishonest, bankrupting, vote-bribing “promises” and schemes. At the same time, the bad money of crony communism will “drive” into safety and sanctuary the good money to which financially intelligent people will move. Those of you who have gotten this far in the article already know exactly what we mean. And no matter how many commands, controls and executive orders the crony communists pile on to steal the people’s money, they are going to be unpleasantly surprised to find that they end up with next to none of it. Crony communist looters are no match for the ingenuity, resourcefulness, integrity and resolve of everyday, productive American people. Principled American patriots will throw their good money into deep rivers before they hand it over to crony communist plunderers

This is the end of Part 1. In Part 2, we will provide additional information about the current landscape, several forecasts, and a short list of general recommendations.

Closing Postscript: On a very specific note, if crony communism prevails on November 8th, we believe that holiday retail sales will deliver an early statement about the unfurling economic consequences. We would project a major miss. Despite the miss, the aggregate number will still be overstated, because we forecast that the prudent will begin to make large investments in independence. These people will not be buying gifts; they will be buying what they need to opt out and hunker down. We recommend that analysts carefully parse the holiday retail sales numbers, because deep under the surface they will almost certainly express, in dollar terms, our notion of “grim resolve.” The mainstream business media will completely miss what is really happening. The real retail sales story will be told by very specific line items, not the aggregate data. The informational gold will be hidden deep in the underground, as always.

Stewart Dougherty

Stewart Dougherty is the creator of Inferential Analytics, a forecasting method that applies to events proprietary, time-tested principles of human instinct, desire and action. In his view, forecasting methods not fundamentally based upon principles of human action are unlikely to be reliable over time. He is a graduate of Tufts University and Harvard Business School and has developed IA over a period of 15+ years.

SIX Reasons To Vote For Trump…

If you feel the need to vote at all (sourced from Zerohedge) :

  1. “A Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress.”
  2. A hiring freeze on all federal employees.”
  3. “A requirement that for every new federal regulation, 2 existing regulations must be eliminated.”
  4. “A 5-year ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government.”
  5. “A lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government.”
  6. “A complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.”

At the end of the day, it doesn’t really matter who occupies the Oval Office – it’s the Deep State and the wealthy titans behind the Deep State (Bill Gates, Buffet, Soros, Rockefeller, Bezos, Anschutz, etc) that control the fate of this country.

The most important one in the list  in my opinion is #1.  If #1 is eliminated it will naturally offset Citizens United.  I found it ironic that Hillary Clinton referenced Citizens United negatively in the last debate because SHE is the biggest beneficiary of Citizens United.  Her refusal to answer Trump’s challenge to return the $10’s of millions she’s received from Saudi Arabia said everything about her real view on Citizens United.

Citizens United napalmed any remaining shreds of democracy in this country and turned the country in a full-blown Banana Republic for sale to the highest bidders.   The Podesta emails reveal that Hillary has taken full advantage of the Pay-To-Play system created by Citizens United.

Hillary believes there is a difference between her stated pubic vs. private position on political issues.  In other words, her campaign platform is the  exact opposite of what she really stands for if elected.

The election boils down to whether you prefer the next President to be a confirmed criminal who will sell out this country to the highest bidders or an inexperienced, unpolished politician who wants to shake up DC and who scares the hell out of the elitists.

hillary-pinnochio-cartoon“Vote early and often people”

“And if you know any dead guys who need to vote, email their info to Donna at the DNC”


Junior Miners: Gold And Silver Are Ready To Rumble

Massive one-shot selling of non-physical gold on Tuesday, October 4th, appeared to be typical of gold-price-depressing market interventions seen repeatedly in recent years. Those interventions have been orchestrated regularly by central banks…Post-election, the Fed likely will face economic and liquidity circumstance more conducive to expanded quantitative easing, than to meaningful rate hikes. Reverting now to obvious market manipulation of the price of gold could be a leading indicator of pending central-bank policy otherwise shifting towards intensified U.S. dollar debasement.  – John Williams,

The Fed was overtly aggressive in its attack on gold and silver during the past few weeks.  As John Williams observes in the quote above, it’s probable that the Fed has made every effort to suppress the price of gold ahead of the implementation of more QE in some form (dollar debasement).

Several analysts have been offering up theories with regard to the performance of gold based on the winner of the presidential election.  But the truth is, gold and silver will do well for the foreseeable future regardless of which candidate wins.   Perhaps this chart created by Twitter @thingtankcharts, with my edits, will explain my view:


The graphic above shows the three massive bubbles blown by the Fed, the last two of which hit exhaustion and were followed by a collapse in the stock market.  The third bubble is by far the biggest and will likely be followed by a stunning stock market collapse unless the Fed blows even harder with a bigger QE program than was implemented in 2008.  Either way, gold and silver will soar.

Right now, of course, India and China have stepped up ot their seasonal gold feeding trough with healthy appetites. Jewelers in India see a 10-20% rise in demand for this year’s festival season – Economic Times.

Away from the activity in the physical gold market, another indicator has perked up:  the junior mining stocks.  Not necessarily the junior segment as a whole, but the smaller cap juniors which potentially have high-payoff deposits and the cash to fund exploration.

The fund I co-manage owns several of these so I happened to notice that trading volumes in these stocks began to spike up in mid-late December, around the time that gold and silver began to move higher but in advance of the universe of mining stocks.  The volume in these stocks began spiking up late last week and early this week. As examples, volumes on the TSX listing for Rye Patch Gold, Alamadex Minerals, Barkerville Gold, Arizona Mining and Treasury Metals spiked up considerably this week.  This is just a few examples.

The junior exploration stocks tend to be largely off the radar screen of most mining stock investors.  But I also believe that the smartest hedge funds who play in the mining stock sandbox are well aware that the smallest juniors have the most upside leverage to rising gold and silver prices.   In other words, “really smart money” smells another moving coming the precious metals – likely in anticipation of further dollar devaluation policies implemented by the Fed and Government.

We know that whoever is the next President will ramp up Government spending in an attempt to revive an economy that is on the verge of depression.  The only way this can be enabled, in light of the fact that China and other major Central Banks are dumping Treasuries, is for the Fed to step up and monetize the debt that will have to be issued by the Government to fund even more fiscal spending

The number one and two priorities will be a Federal bailout of Obamacare and a move to prop up the largest State and Federal retirement funds, including Social Security, all of which are badly underfunded and will collapse if the Government does not intervene.  The money printing that is coming will drive the precious metals and miners a lot higher from here.

You can subscribe to the Mining Stock Journal by clicking on this LINK or by clicking on the graphic below.  For now, I am distributing the previous two issues (March 4th was the debut issue) published.  Each bi-monthly issue contains what I believe to be unique commentary and analysis on the gold/silver market plus a thoroughly researched mining stock idea – mostly juniors but I’ll present an occasional large cap idea, especially if I believe it presents a good short term trading opportunity.

  • “You’ve got a great journal for an amazing price.” – James


Here’s an excerpt from the last issue:

For me, the best indicators that the worst is over are: 1) India and China are transitioning into their largest seasonal period of physical gold buying; 2) the “excess” Comex open interest appears to have substantially liquidated; 3) the stock charts are extremely oversold and some technical indicators are turning up.


In this issue I presented a couple of large cap ideas that have been extremely oversold, including some ideas for using options. I also updated some of my recent junior picks based on recent events that could drive these stocks higher.

Gold Will Soar Regardless Who’s President

We can ignore reality but we can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.   – Ayn Rand

Perhaps the most infuriating aspect of last night’s final “debate” is the suppression of the truth.  Throughout all three debtes, Hillary overtly avoided answering any direct quetions regarding her infamous emails, thankfully put on display for all to see by Wikileaks.

Last night she pivoted right to blaming it on the Russians.  Talk about conspiracy theory. It is highly improbable that the Russians hacked her illegal email accounts for the purpose of influencing the election.  But Hillary used this sound-byte to deflect away from the Truth.  All of the Truths exposed by the leaked emails which point to Hillary’s criminal activity, including collusion with the media (CNN specifically) to rig the outcome of her primary race and selling access to the State Dept and to Wall Street Banks for donations to the Clinton Foundation.  Those are just two of many acts of criminality exposed by the emails.

But in Hillary’s world, Truth is a liability which would prevent her from ascending to the Oval Office where she can peddle and steal  her way from an 8-figure net worth to a 9-figure net worth. Maybe her nickname will be “three commas.”

That said, we hope Hillary is elected because her supporters will not only end up regretting their choice, but it will adversely affect them and their families forever.

Regardless of who wins the election, gold  and silver are getting ready for another surprising move higher.   The Harry Dent  Jr’s of the world will be left grasping for excuses for why their prediction for a much lower gold price is so horribly wrong.

We discuss the tragic U.S. Presidential election and the reason why gold is getting ready to take off again in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

A Bear Market In Stocks Began In May 2015

Technically, the move in the stock market that began in March 2009, when the stock market bottomed after the 2008 financial market de facto collapse, should not be termed a “bull market” because it required several trillions of Central Bank and Government intervention to move the stock market.   Definitionally the stock market is no longer a “market” – rather it’s an intervention.

Having said that, with the entire financial world – especially Wall Street analysts and financial  media boobs – focused on the S&P 500 and the Dow, the NYSE Composite, which covers every stock traded on the NYSE, has begun what is likely a bear market that started from its record high of 11,254 on May 21, 2015:


As the graph above illustrates, the NYSE Composite index – every stock that trades on NYSE – is down close to 6% since May 2015.  The NYSE Comp is more representative of the stock and more reflective of the deteriorating conditions in the economy than are the SPX and Dow, which are used as propaganda tools by the financial market and political elitists.

In fact, as has been demonstrated in several places in the alternative media, as it turns out just a handful of the largest cap stocks are keeping the SPX and Dow in what appears to be a “bull market.”    This graph below sourced from Zerohedge shows the performance of the SPX with and without the infamous “FANG” stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG):

As you can see if you strip out the FANG stocks from the calculation of the SPX index, the index is flat going back to the beginning of 2015. Yet, the SPX hit an all-time high in August 2015. Qu’est-ce que c’est?  As explained in the ZH article:   The FANGS “have gained $570 billion of market cap or nearly 80% during the previous 19 months” [Jan 2015 – Aug 2016]…”if you subtract the FANGs from the S&P 500 market cap total, there had been virtually no gain in value at all.”

I wrote to my Short Seller Journal subscribers this past weekend:

NYA began diverging from the SPX and the Dow back then. It points to broad overall weakness in the stock market relative to the biggest stocks by market cap. This pattern in the broader stock market is also more reflective of the economic reality of a deteriorating economy. Small and mid-sized companies are experiencing deteriorating fundamentals which is translating into deteriorating market caps.  SSJ for October 16, 2016

The point here is that economic reality is diverging from the propaganda infused message that the Fed, Wall Street and politicians want us to buy into.  The housing market illustrates this perfectly.  I have been detailing in my blog the methodology by which the Government manipulates the new home sales statistics.  This morning it was reported that housing starts for September plunged 9% from August.  Of course the media puts its propaganda spin on this. For instance, Bloomberg attributes the drop to multifamily starts. But multifamily starts is the metric that gave the housing starts report any “legs” to begin with.  Marketwatch references a “durable recovery.”  But does this look like a durable recovery?


New single family home sales – despite the trillions of dollars infused into the housing market by the Federal Reserve and Government – never got any higher than where they were in 2008 after the housing bubble popped and sales had already dropped by 66%. Before that, the last time single family home sales were at Marketwatch’s “durable recovery” level was in 1995!

And in truth the methodology used by the Government to present new  home sales (Seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on highly questionable Census Bureau data collecting) grossly overstates the true level of new home sales at any given time.  The same can be said for the NAR’s existing home sales.  Like everything else in our system, the housing market activity is primarily a product of the propaganda and not real economic activity.

The point here is that underlying economy is far weaker than the propaganda coming from the elitists would have us believe.  They can stimulate fraud and deception all they want but ultimately they can not force a shrinking middle class with rapidly shrinking disposable income from spending money.

More important, you can make money from this insight because most stocks in the stock market have been going lower since mid-2015.  This pattern in the broader stock market is also more reflective of the economic reality of a deteriorating economy. Small and mid-sized companies are experiencing deteriorating fundamentals which is translating into deteriorating deteriorating market caps (from the latest Short Sellers Journal)

Every week I provide proprietary insight into the economy and markets in the Short Seller’s Journal.  I also highlight at least two or three short-sell ideas.   Most of these ideas have been working now since early August (late Fed to late July was rough).  As an example, in the September 18th issue I presented Credit Acceptance Corp, a subprime auto loan finance company with a balance sheet that is a ticking time bomb, with the stock at $198.60.   It’s trading today at $183 – down 7.8% in less than 4 weeks – despite a largely flat SPX in that timeframe.  CACC will eventually be cut in half from here, at least.

SSJ is a monthly subscription that is published weekly.  I also provide some ideas for using puts if you are not comfortable shorting stocks and I also disclose when I participate in the ideas in my own account.  You can cancel at any time – there is no minimum commitment. You can access more information on the subscription here:  Short Seller’s Journal.

Here’s another example of the insight and analysis provided in the SSJ:

Another interesting report out last was China’s exports for September, which were down 10% year over year in September vs. -3.3 expected. The US and Europe are China’s largest export markets. If China’s overall exports dropped 10%, it’s mathematically probable that US and EU imports from China were down more than 10% in September. It also implies and reinforces the thesis that US consumer spending is contracting (of course, if this drop in exports from China translates into a narrowed trade deficit for the US, that will be spun as a positive by the financial media!)

A Rigged Media And An Attempt To Rig The Election

We often criminalize behavior that is normal – Donna Brazile on ABC’s “This Week” in reference to Hillary Clinton giving access to the State Department in exchange for 6-figure donations to the Clinton Foundation.

Thank goodness for Wikileaks and the DNC and Podesta email dumps. There’s no question that the mainstream media is colluding with the Clinton Campaign to tip the election in HRC’s favor. For Obama to accuse Trump of “whining” about it is absurd. But, then again, Obama’s speech last week sounded like something out of “1984” or Goebbels’s Nazi Party Propaganda playbook. Moreover, Obama’s silence is defeaning with regard to HRC’s overt corruption and criminality per the Podesta emails.

As for whether or not the media is rigged, follow the money. According to analysis from the Center For Public Integrity, 430 people who work in journalism have donated almost $400,000 in total to both Presidential candidates. HOWEVER, these 430 journalists have given approximately $375,000 to HRC and roughly $15,000 to Trump. In other words, journalists have given 25x more money to HRC than to Trump.  Quite frankly, journalists should be forbidden from contributing to any political campaign – as should Federal Reserve officials, who are also throwing wads of money at HRC.

An analyst at the Center for Public Integrity wrote: Conventional journalistic wisdom holds that reporters and editors are referees on politics’ playing field — bastions of neutrality who mustn’t root for Team Red or Team Blue, either in word or deed, David Levinthal  LINK.

If you doubt that the media is trying to rig the election for Hillary, we can look at the invaluable Podesta email dump by Wikileaks, again which is being largely ignored by the mainstream media.   Donna Brazile, then-CNN contributor and now Hillary’s front-man consigliere at the DNC, is caught red-handed feeding Hillary questions in advance of a Townhall debate with Bernie Sanders – Podesta emails.  That link shows a copy of an email from Brazile to Podesta – HRC’s disgraced campaign Chairma – in which Brazile tips Podesta about a question on the death penalty in reference to which Brazile expressed “worry.”

If you don’t believe there’s a strong possibility that Brazile in her capacity a DNC Chairman had access to questions ahead of the Trump/Clinton debates and took full advantage of that, then you also believe there’s strong possibility that Santa Claus exists.  I guess Donna Brazile in a way is Hillary’s Santa Clause…

But then again, being from the bayou area of Louisiana – an area well-known for its corrupted politics, bootlegging and mobster activity, this is just standard operating procedure for Brazile.

Make no mistake, I do not in anyway support Trump’s candidacy.   The choice given to Americans for their next President is utterly tragic.  The blame falls squarely on the media. I don’t know how a media which was held to the highest standards of ethics and integrity would have prevented Trump from being the Republican candidate, but truthful, unbiased reporting would have no doubt prevented Hillary from candidacy for public office at any level of Government.

As for Bernie Sanders, thank god he’s not the Democratic candidate.  Hillary Clinton urinated and defecated all over him and his primary campaign.  And his response has been to say, “thank you may I have some more of that” by endorsing and campaigning for her.  I don’t know what is more pathetic, HRC’s actions or Sanders’ response.

The overarching tragedy in this whole ordeal is that a free press has been lost forever.  Bill Clinton’s enactment into law of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 was the final death knell for the concept of free press.  That legislation further enabled the cross-breeding of radio, cable, broadcasting and newspapers.  In 1983 50 corporations controlled the vast majority of all news media in the U.S.  By 2000 that number had fallen to six.   Now it’s five: Time Warner, Disney, News Corp, Bertelsmann (Germany, believe it or not).  General Electric’s NBC is a close 6th.   Other than News Corp, the mainstream media outlets of all six of those corporate conglomerates heavily endorse HRC’s campaign.

The fate of the media and of this 2016 Presidential campaign is the fault of all Americans. We only have ourselves to blame for the two atrocities being labelled “Presidential Candidates.”  We do not hold the press accountable for its actions anymore than we hold elected officials accountable.

At least the alternative media – largely the blogosphere – makes an attempt to elevate the truth.  Of course, the mainstream media has successfully smeared the alternative media reporting and commentary as “conspiracy theory.”   And if Obama has his way as expressed in his “truthiness” speech at Carnegie Mellon last week, the alternative media will soon be heavily, if not completely, censored out of existence.

A Rigged Media Is The Death Of Democracy

A press that is free to investigate and criticize the government is absolutely essential in a nation that practices self-government and is therefore dependent on an educated and enlightened citizenry.  – Thomas Jefferson

The control of the mainstream media by the wealthy elitist Establishment is nothing new.  If Watergate served any purpose, it was to send a message to those who wanted to take complete control of the political and economic system that control of the mainstream media was imperative.

The use of propaganda to shape public perception is as old as civilization.  Religion is the paramount example.  But the extreme bias in the mainstream media – especially CNN, Fox News, MSNC, New York Times and Washington Post – has become so blatant that even the hoi polloi is taking notice.

It’s become impossible to ignore all of the evidence pointing at Hillary Clinton’s overt, unabashed criminal activities.  Those who continue to support her choose to ignore the evidence and blame the information on Putin or on “conspiracy theorists.”  The fact that CNN refuses to report anything that runs contrary to the party line supporting the HRC narrative reinforces the “conspiracy theory” storyline.

It’s easier to swallow lies because recognizing truth would destroy the myths about America that were pounded into our brains starting in kindergarten.  Surely humans can’t be as evil as the tinfoil hats would have us believe…

In today’s Shadow of Truth episode, we discuss the attempt to rig the election in favor of HRC.  Hillary managed to use control of the media to defeat Bernie Sanders.  We also discuss our predictions for gold and silver:


Crony Communism: Hillary Clinton’s Game Plan For America

“The goal of socialism is communism.” Vladimir Lenin

Inferential Analytics (IA), the forecasting method we have created and use, has generated a new theme. IA themes define significant macro developments that are in progress. IA themes almost always become full-blown realities in time. This is our first article about the new theme, which is particularly threatening and disturbing.

If this theme develops as the IA model projects, the resulting new reality will have a profound effect on every United States citizen living either within or outside the country. (U.S. citizens are taxed no matter where in the world they reside.) While the entire American experience will be re-shaped by this new reality, citizens’ financial freedom, and therefore their overall liberty is particularly at risk. This theme extends beyond the United States, especially to Europe, but in this article we will focus on the U.S. situation.

Before introducing and detailing the new theme, here is some context.

Until now, the United States has been able to fund its massive, structural deficits and debts by leveraging its unique position as issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, frequently referred to as the petrodollar. The dollar’s reserve privilege has enabled the nation to artificially enhance America’s financial quality of life by creating out of nothing colossal quantities of the currency. By perpetuating a system that forces other nations to use the dollar, strong, unnatural demand has kept the currency from imploding in value despite its hyper-creation.

Among other things, this currency privilege has hidden rapidly escalating corruption within the American financial and economic system. The costs of this corruption have been funded by chronic deficits and surging debt; in other words, by excess currency creation, or money printing. If the costs of this corruption had, instead, been forced to be paid from the existing, and not an inflated money stock, the economy would have collapsed by now from the leeching of the lifeblood of any truly capitalistic system: namely, capital.

As the techniques of monetary debasement, deceit and plunder have become more sophisticated, reckless and brazen, the looting of the American economy has expanded to an epic degree. For example, we now know for a fact that the United States Army alone (not the military, just the Army), cannot account for $6,500,000,000,000.00 ($6.5 trillion) of the money it has spent. Despite the astronomical amount of this missing money, it is a drop in the bucket compared to the total number of trillions that have been plundered from the nation by establishment corruption.

In the mid-1990s, when the escalating corruption within the Wall Street-centered global monetary and financial system had become so obvious that the Establishment eleech (our term for the “elite,” a word we no longer use because it does not describe their now totally parasitic nature) could no longer deny it with a straight face, a new term to describe the system was concocted: Crony Capitalism.

The term Crony Capitalism was meant to imply that the system remained capitalistic, even though a bit of cronyism had crept into it around the edges. Further, the term implied that it is natural for a certain amount of cronyism to accompany any capitalistic system, and that people should not be concerned about it, as it is a normal and expected development.

This was blatant propaganda and a lie. The term Crony Capitalism is a fundamental contradiction in terms, and a fallacy. It is like saying, “healthy corpse,” “honest thief,” “trustworthy liar,” or “loyal snitch.” Cronyism pollutes and destroys capitalism. They are natural enemies and polar opposites, and they cannot legitimately or naturally co-exist.

Through constant repetition, which is how lies are dressed up to appear true, the term crony capitalism took hold, and became the descriptor for what we were expected to believe was a slightly imperfect, but still fundamenally healthy and vibrant form of capitalism. This falsehood was believed, until now.

Today, people in nations around the world have figured out that the United States is deep within a debt vortex from which it can never escape; that its structural deficits are uncontainable unless the system flat-out collapses; that the dollar is a massive figment of the imagination, supported only by an ephemeral confidence completely disjointed from any logical justification for it; and that the nation’s socio-political reality is fractured, dysfunctional and irreversibly disintegrating at an accelerating rate.

Therefore, these international players are increasingly unwilling to play the dollar game, and are progressively withdrawing from the field. While the U.S. government and Crony Class are doing everything possible to keep the game alive, it is now obvious that they are failing.

With the United States approaching a time when it can no longer fund its structurally and systemically defective financial, monetary, economic, fiscal and socio-political contraptions with a combination of currency counterfeiting and the subtle extraction of wealth from the rest of the world, it is being left with only one means by which to perpetuate itself: plundering the private wealth of its own citizens.

This is the theme that has been identified by Inferential Analytics. We have named it: “Crony Communism.”

Crony Communism takes the absolute worst aspects of every former, parasitic national operating system that has existed in history, including socialism, communism, colonialism, tribalism, totalitarianism and statism and blends them into a new, malevolent, deceitful, destructive, deadening, militaristic, hyper-corrupt, soulless, and thoroughly evil form of human command and control. Its total financial and human cost will be unprecedented, if it plays out as the IA signals indicate it most likely will.

Crony communism is the actual “fundamental transformation,” or better termed “fundamental destruction” of the United States of America that Obama promised in 2008. The people should have listened to him more carefully when he said that, because he wasn’t kidding around.

Many have believed that communism will never happen in the United States, because it would hurt the Crony Class the worst, given that they possess the most money. What the people repeatedly fail to comprehend is that communism is intended for and inflicted upon them, but never upon the Crony eleech. History proves that the eleech live like royalty in communist regimes. Two of the most glaring examples are North Korea and Venezuela, but the phenomenon has been identical in every single communist system that has been implemented to date.

One notable example of this reality is Maria Gabriela Chavez, the 35 year old daughter of deceased Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, who has never held a real job in her life, yet who happens to be the country’s richest person with a net worth of $4.2 billion. This phenomenal wealth is thanks to the plunder her so-called communist father schemed for her to receive. As the Venezuelan people eat family pets to survive and starve in the streets, Maria Gabriela lifts not a finger to lessen their anguish, despite possessing a fortune that she could not possibly spend in two dozen lifetimes.

This illustrates the sheer hypocrisy of communist organizers: while they force wealth redistribution upon the citizens, they refuse to contribute one penny of their own wealth to anyone, let alone to the general welfare of their society. Communist organizers and their Crony Class brethren are not just greedy, they are cheap. Maria Gabriela’s pathological greed is shared by every single communist organizer we have researched, from Kim Jong Un to the Castros to the living, phony, self-righteous, well-known communist frauds in the United States.

The establishment’s vast wealth will never be subjected to communist expropriation. It will be stashed in various “Foundations,” which would be much better termed “Fraudations,” or “Slushfundations,” where it will be fully exempt from all forms of taxation and fees. Communist impoverishment will be for us, the people, not them, the establishment. Only the well-connected Crony eleech will be provided the necessary licenses to establish fraudations and thereby escape taxation and expropriation. The Clinton Slushfundation comes to mind, as a leading indicator of this sub-theme.

While it is not possible in this brief overview for us to outline in detail each of the building blocks that, combined, will result in the imposition of Crony Communism upon the nation and its people, we can provide a glimpse of some of the more important tactics that will be used. These factors are not theory; they are reality. Each and every one of these tactics is already in play at this time.

  • The notion of “After Tax Savings” will be destroyed. It will be said that only criminals or greedy, selfish, anti-social hoarders save money. Savers will be villified for hurting their fellow citizens and “the economy” by not spending. All income net of taxes will be forced to be spent, to prop up a phony economy structured to enrich the Crony eleech. Any legacy money existing when people die will be forfeited to the state via confiscatory death taxes such as those outlined, as a first step, in Clinton’s campaign platform. Zero and negative interest rates will ensure that savings are expropriated by banking institutions controlling those funds, and by inflation, which is guaranteed to significantly escalate. (See Venezuela.)

  • The “cost structure of life” will be increased to make it impossible for people to save, get ahead or become independent of the state. This cost structure will include ever-increasing taxes; health insurance premiums; insurance deductibles; medical costs; licensing, registration, inspection and reporting fees; surcharges; arbitrary fines; food costs; energy costs; currency devaluation- and inflation-related costs; and virtually every other category of expense related to simply surviving in the crony communist society. As people become impoverished and can no longer afford these costs, they will receive subsidies while those who are not yet impoverished will continue to be charged the full boat until they, too, require subsidies as they disappear into the financial morass. (See Obamacare.)

  • Citizens will be required to file not just income tax returns, but personal asset returns detailing every financial asset and physical possession they own. A financial dossier will exist on every citizen, making it easy for the state to pinpoint and expropriate whatever wealth it wants. Executive Orders will be in place allowing the government to seize any and all assets on any pretext it creates, such as ambiguously defined “emergency situations.” Please note: such Executive Orders already exist, just like everything else in this list.

  • Cash will be eliminated so that any money still possessed by citizens is electronic, non-withdrawable, controlled and available for seizure. This objective has been publicly announced and is on a fast-track development path right now.

  • Entirely new taxes, fees and fines will be imposed upon individuals and businesses. These charges will be said to promote “fairness,” “equality,” “togetherness,” and similar high-sounding but totally phony terms, and will be named such things as “Climate Improvement Contribution,” “Wage Harmonization Donation,” “Refugee Resettlement Offering,” and “Financial Equalization Gratuity.” Once one brand new tax category has been fully implemented, a new one will be introduced, in a never-ending cycle that will only stop when all the people’s money has been stolen and nothing is left to loot.

  • Wealth taxes will be imposed on all who possess assets net of the tax and fee dragnet, an idea that has been formally introduced by the IMF. Please note that IMF employees do not pay income taxes on their lavish, taxpayer-funded salaries; they are exempt, which is a perfect illustration of our fundamental point that taxes and fees will be meant for the people, and not the establishment eleech.

  • Mass immigration will be used to destroy the nation’s identity, skew elections and reduce resistance to the overthrow of the nation’s institutions, values and traditions. It will also be used as an excuse to create an entirely new set of taxes and fees, to pay the exorbitant costs of providing food, housing, medical care, transportation and other resettlement and living costs of immigrants and “refugees.” Currently, 70% of the American population has less than $1,000 in savings. The communist organizers never explain who is supposed to pay the costs of bringing millions of immigrants into the country, because they have no answer and don’t care; their agenda is domestic regime change. The United States is already bankrupt, so “what difference, at this point, does it make?” They will simply counterfeit more currency, even if it means hyperinflation, an event they will sidestep via indexation clauses that will benefit them, but not the people.

  • Guns will be banned, which has happened in every single communist and totalitarian regime throughout history. Gun possession by government agents, members of the eleech, and mercenaries protecting the eleech will be legal and authorized. See Venezuela.

  • The Alternative Media will be shut down, and replaced by State Media which will become the monopoly provider of “news” and “information.” This explains why the MSM is currently licking the establishment’s boots and pushing its agenda with media bias so extreme it is actually laughable and absurd. They realize there is a huge payday for them as State Media monopolists under Crony Communism. Again, state control of the media is a consistent theme in all communist regimes.

For IA to signal a theme, literally hundreds of datapoints must converge upon a common story. While the above list contains just a small number of factors, it is indicative of how this new theme has developed.

The objective behind the vast array of taxes, surcharges, regulatory and licensing fees, inspection fees, fines and the like will be to transfer the maximum possible amount of private assets from the citizens to those in charge of the Crony Communist regime. As the people are systematically stripped of their assets and impoverished, they will become increasingly and ultimately totally dependent upon the state for their existence. This, of course, is the point.

Accompanying the full-blown overthrow of the nation by the for-profit (for them) Crony Communist regime will be an endless litany of slogans, many of which have already been used to brainwash and confuse the people. Examples abound, such as, “Change We can Believe In,” “Owning the Future,” “One American Family,” Stronger Together,” “Forward,” “Hope and Change,” and the like. Soon, we will be hearing new ones such as, “Service over Selfishness,” “Don’t Get: Give,” “Talent Must be Shared with All,” all of them deriving from the famous communist mantra, “From Each According to His Ability, to Each According to his Needs.” Slogans have been a cornerstone of communist overthrows throughout history.

Every single element of Crony Communism outlined above is either already in place to a certain degree, or has been officially proposed and recommended by the government and/or the Crony Class mouthpieces and shills. The only thing that has not happened, yet, is for all of these elements to be pulled together into one, interconnected system of Crony Communism. It is the amalgamation of the individual elements that is now demonstrably underway, and this is the critical change that has been detected by the Inferential Analytics model. This change vastly accelerates the imposition of Crony Communism upon the nation, and makes all the difference.

Inferential Analytics is a descriptive, predictive and prescriptive forecasting method. Typically, we omit the prescriptive aspect in our reports, because we view people as intelligent beings who are best able to plan for their own futures once they have been given a good idea about what is heading toward them.

However, in this case, we are going to depart from convention and issue a prescriptive statement. We are doing this because Crony Communism represents such a radical, sweeping and dangerous departure from everything the American people know and value that many might simply be incapable of believing it can happen here, internalizing what it will mean to them personally, and taking the necessary steps to protect themselves from its onslaught.

As we await further information (the outcome of the 2016 elections will have enormous implications for the Crony Communism theme), two prescriptions for readers are these: First, politically speaking, if you support any long-term, professional politicians, you are voting for Crony Communism, because those people have everything to gain from it, and are working to make it happen. Second, financially speaking, you need to slam on the brakes right now and get your houses in order. This means that all expenses not absolutely necessary should immediately be eliminated. You need to generate and protect precious financial resources however possible, because they will be necessary to fund your escape from Crony Communism, should it go full-blown. We can assure decent, principled, moral, productive, tax-paying, everyday American people that you will not want to live for one minute under Crony Communism, nor will you want your loved ones to live under it, either.

We regret feeling obligated to delineate the Crony Communism theme, and pray that the IA forecast is wrong. Given the accuracy of the IA method, which has been successfully back-tested for many years, we believe it would be wrong of us not to speak out publicly at this time, because this theme has a very high probability of coming true unless the people rise up to stop it.

Stewart Dougherty

October 13, 2016

Stewart Dougherty is the creator of Inferential Analytics, a forecasting method that applies to events proprietary, time-tested principles of human instinct, desire and action. In his view, forecasting methods not fundamentally based upon principles of human action are unlikely to be reliable over time. He is a graduate of Tufts University (BA) and Harvard Business School (MBA), and has developed IA over a period of 15+ years.

The Big Retail Sales Lie

There’s a direct correlation between the scale and quantity of lies coming from Hillary Clinton and the Government. Why? It’s election season, of course. It’s easy enough to dismiss Hillary’s plea for debate viewers to go to her campaign website to see “fact” checking.  We know how easy it is for her to hide the truth when she has assistance from the State Department, FBI and Obama.  If you believe Hillary Clinton, you also believe in the Easter Bunny.

But it’s also easy to fact check the Census Bureau’s retail sales reports.   Now, it’s easy enough to believe that the Government would manipulate the statistics in order to help the incumbent party maintain control the White House.  But it’s also easy to fact-check the Census Bureau’s tabulations for monthly retail sales, notwithstanding the fact that the Census Bureau is caught producing fraudulent statistics on a regular basis.

Today, for instance, they released their “advance estimate” for retail sales for September. The Census Bureau would have us believe that retail sales increased .6% from August to September.  But this was based on the Government’s politically expedient “seasonally adjusted” calculation.

Simple math disproves the validity of the “adjustments.”  The report shows “not adjusted” total retail sales as estimated by the Census.  August was $471.3 billion – or $15.2 billion per day.  September was $445.4 billion – or $14.8 billion per day – down 2.6% from August to September on a per day basis .   In retail sales terms, a 2.6% decline month to month is equivalent to a steep plunge.  (click image to enlarge)


Theoretically, the seasonal “adjustment” offsets the day-count difference between August and September. But what about the 3-day Labor Day holiday weekend?   This year Labor Day fell on September 5.  Presumably that weekend should have compensated for any “seasonal”differences between August (back to school?) and September.  BUT on a sales/day basis, September retail sales plunged from August.

Here’s a definitive “fact check” on the Census Bureau retail sales report.  The retail sales report is showing a 1% increase per the “adjusted” number from August to September. However,  Black Box Intelligence, the best source for both private and public company restaurant industry data, is reporting that restaurant traffic fell 3.5% in September from August.  In fact, traffic counts have dropped at least 3%  in four of the last six months. Same-store-sales dropped .5%.

This private sector source of data is consistent with data that I have been presenting in the Short Seller’s Journal for trucking and freight shipments for August and September and for actual auto sales numbers, which are declining at an increasing rate, along with the rise in auto loan delinquencies.   In fact, according to Fitch the default rate in subprime auto loans is now running at 9% and is expected to be at 10% by year-end.  Fitch is usually conservative in its estimates.  I would bet the real default rate will be well over 10% by the end of 2016.

One final significant datapoint released last week was auto sales for September. The “headline” report showed a 6% SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) gain in September over August for domestically produced autos. However, auto sales typically increase from August to September as Labor Day sales drive September car sales. Year over year, domestic car sales plunged 19% and truck sales were down 1%.

Now for the reality-check. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, September sales for GM, Ford and Chrysler declined 0.6%, 8.1% and 0.9% respectively. Toyota and Nissan reported gains while Honda’s sale dropped. Moreover, it took heavy discounting to drive sales. In fact, incentive-spending by OEM’s on a per-unit average basis set a single-month record, topping the previous single-month record set in December 2008. Think about that for moment.  – from the October 9 issue of the Short Seller’s Journal

The bottom line is that most, if not all, data coming from private-sector sources conflicts and undermines the “seasonally adjusted” garbage data reported by the Government. Just like all other news reported by the media that is sourced from the Government, the Government economic reports are yet another insidious form of propaganda tailored for political expedience.  But propaganda does not create real economic activity and the middle class is becoming increasingly aware that it’s being told nothing but lies from the Government.  Today’s Government generated retail sales report for September is a prime example.