Category Archives: Financial Markets

Donna Brazile: Don’t Hate On Hillary Pimpin’ Power

We have a presidential candidate who has deleted emails and done things illegally and is a presidential candidate. That doesn’t make sense to me because if that was any other person you’d be in prison. So, what is this country really standing for?  – Colin Kapernick, the section of his media interview the MSM omitted – LINK

For those of you who don’t know her, Donna Brazile is a political “strategist” and a contributor to CNN (the Clinton News Network) and ABC.  She was selected to replace Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the DNC chairman.

Brazile was on ABC’s “This Week” the past Sunday.  She made some stunning omissions20160827_office which confirm that Hillary Clinton runs her organization like a powerful Mafia “family.” Other than the fact that the zombies who watch “This Week” likely merely nodded in agreement as drool rolled down the side of their mouths, I can’t believe Brazile made these remarks.  For instance:

The way I look at it, I’ve been a government official. So, you know, this notion that, somehow or another, someone who is a supporter, someone who is a donor, somebody who’s an activist, saying I want access, I want to come into a room and I want to meet people, we often criminalize behavior that is normal. And I don’t see what the smoke is.  LINK

Yes, we criminalize that behavior because, at least on paper, it is illegal for a politician to accept money in any form in exchange for political influence or “favors.”  Just because it happens does not make it right.  And Hillary Clinton has taken this “normal behavior” to an extreme.  Brazile stated on national tv that this Government is little more than a criminal enterprise run by criminals.  It makes perfect sense to her that Hillary should be the next President.  If you listen to the interview, you’ll see Brazile sounds like a Louisiana bayou back-woods thug, which is where and how she was raised.

I seriously cannot believe that Brazile was stupid enough to admit this on national television.   She just re-affirmed the truth about Hillary Clinton.  Brazile stated for the record that criminal behavior in DC is normal.  I guess it’s normal to support to a criminal to be the next President.

How about if I don’t make a donation to the Clinton Foundation?  Can I have a meeting with Hillary?  Let’s go through her emails – oh, wait Hillary erased most of the ones we want to see and Loretta Lynch won’t release the rest – and see how many of the private citizen meetings she conducted while Secretary of State were with people who did not donate to the Clinton Family Slush Fund.

I can understand why those who are planning to vote for Hillary do not want to vote for Trump.   Trump is not fit to be President.   But, then again, Hillary is not fit to be doing anything except defending herself from being put in prison for any number of the long list of crimes she’s committed going back to her back woods Arkansas first lady days.

Donna Brazile, if nothing else, stated on national television that your vote does not matter. You want a voice in our Government, you “vote” with money.  The best option is to not vote at all in protest of a system that is tragically and catastrophically broken.

I was chatting with someone this past weekend who stated that they will not “give up their vote” and will vote for Hillary instead of Trump, knowing full well that Hillary is as dirty as they come in DC.  But voting for Hillary is equivalent to voting for Don Corleone.  Brazile made that clear on national television.  In fact, voting for either candidate is noting more than casting a vote for a failed system.   That’s far worse than not voting at all.

As Housing Crashes, Gold Will Soar

The precious metals market is at the end of its typical mid-July to last August “breather.” This is the time of the year when the eastern hempisphere physical buyers are somewhat dormant.  Over the last several years, China’s emergence as the world’s largest gold importer has somewhat reduced the late summer seasonal sell-off.  But it’s the period of the year when it’s the easiest for the paper manipulators to push the price of gold lower.

Quite frankly, gold is up 25% since mid-December and 10% since early June.  Notwithstanding the fact that, if left alone to trade freely, gold would go parabolic for at least $700-$1000, it’s been one of the best performing asset classes YTD and can use “technical breather.”  But India is starting to flex its muscle as it heads into its biggest seasonal gold buying period of the year from right around now to mid-December.

On the other hand, the housing market is getting ready to rollover. Its already crashing in some areas (Hampton, Aspen, Miami), as noted by Investment Research Dynamic’s Short Seller’s Journal two weeks ago.   The higher end of the price spectrum is loaded with inventory in most major MSAs  and inventories in the middle and upper-middle price segments are building quickly.   July was negative month for existing home sales and mortgage applications.   The only area homes were being “sold” was in the Government’s highly manipulated new home sales report.

The Shadow of Truth discusses gold and housing  and the direction in which each is headed in its late episode:

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Guest Appearance On Crush The Street: Central Banks Are Losing Control

Kenneth Ameduri invited me on to his Crush The Street podcast show last week.  We chatted about gold & silver, the FOMC and interest rates, the US Dollar vs the Japanese Yen, emerging markets (investing in Russia), and the reasons now is a great time to buy mining stocks.

That’s really what I think the game is that is going on: it’s to keep the share prices going up so that insiders can bail.

You can access Kenneth’s website here: Crush The Street.

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Puerto Rico’s Collapse Foreshadows A Total U.S. Collapse

Congress, for some reason, has agreed to use U.S. Taxpayer money to bailout Puerto Rico. That’s mighty generous of Congress to use Citizens’ money for that, especially when most Congressmen have their money tax-sheltered in the Rothschild Trust Company in Reno.  But it begs the question:  Why is Puerto Rico even part of the United States?

An article in the Wall Street Journal reports that Puerto Rico’s pension fund is underfunded by $43 billion, which is on top of $70 billion in various forms of Government debt.  Puerto Rico is an “unincorporated territory of the U.S., which means that it probably harbors a lot of U.S. money hiding from the IRS.  That explains why Congress is using other people’s money to bailout their own money plus the money of those who fund Congressional seats.

Puerto Rico, for all intents and purposes, has financially collapsed.   Your tax dollars are keeping it solvent and paying out pension beneficiaries.  But the State of Illinois would love to have the size of PR’s problems.  The State pension fund in Illinois is underfunded by over $111 billion.  That’s based on a lot of assets like commercial real estate, junk bonds and private equity investments that are marked to fantasy.  Mark ’em to market and I bet the pension fund is underfunded by closer to $200 billion.

That’s just Illinois.  If we were to do a rigorous mark to market assessment of the State pension funds in California, Texas, New Jersey, New York and Florida, I’d bet my last roll of silver eagles that combined the pensions in those States – not including Illinois – are underfunded by  over $1 trillion.

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The graph above shows a 60-minute intra-day chart of the S&P 500 going back to late June. I’ve been featuring this chart in my Short Seller’s Journal every week.   The S&P 500 has basically flat-lined since July 7.  If you overlaid a bollinger-band width indicator, it would show a horizontal line since July 7.  The Fed has temporarily achieved the remarkable feat of removing volatility from the stock market.

The Fed has keyed the stock market to minimizing VaR.  “VaR” stands for “Value at Risk.”  It’s essentially a fancy-sounding term that measures how much an investment portfolio – or bank asset portfolio – might lose given certain volatility assumptions over time.  That’s it in a nutshell though I’m sure quant-geeks will get picky with that summary.

But the bottom line is that if market volatility shoots up for some reason, VaR will shoot up and that will incinerate every single big bank and pension fund  in this country.  Puerto Rico’s predicament will look like a feel-good Broadway musical by comparison.

A friend of mine did a comprehensive of study of public pension funds and concluded that a 10% or more drop in the S&P 500 over a sustained period of time would induce the collapse of all public pension funds.  I think he assumed the best case in terms of how pensions currently mark their assets.  If you notice, the 10%-plus  sell-offs last August and January were followed by sharp “V” bounces – both time.  That was undoubtedly the work of the Fed and my friend’s quantitative work explains why.

I would be surprised if there’s ever been a 7-week period of time when the volatility in the stock market has been as low as it has been since July 7.  Especially considering the high volume of economic, political and geopolitical events that are occurring simultaneously, each of which individually has caused sharp market sell-offs historically.

Another friend/colleague of mine told  me today that one of clients stated that he thought the Fed could hold up the market forever.  My response to that is, if that were the case the whole world would be speaking German right now.

The U.S. collapse will happen either now or later.  For the latter outcome, at some point the Fed will need to print 10’s of trillions of dollars to prevent that horizontal line on the graph above from turning into a downward-pointing near-vertical line.  Of course, please review the history of Germany circa 1923 to see how the money printing alternative worked out…

Economic And Political Collapse Leads To WW3

As the United States slides further into economic and political collapse, its military belligerence around the globe is escalating the probability that an “accident” of some form will trigger the outbreak of World War Three.    As this three-legged monster evolves, the degree of U.S. Government propaganda is at all-time highs.

As an example, yesterday on CNN – aka the Clinton News Network, an “analyst” summarily dismissed allegations surrounding Hillary’s health problems as “sexism” and today CNN’s health “expert” asserted questions about Trump’s health.  If questioning Hillary’s health is a form of misogyny, then isn’t questioning Trump’s health a form of misandry?

On the economic front, the Governments economic reports continue to fail the test of serious analysis. For instance, its new home sales report for July was idiotic.  The Government statistical propagandists managed to take an alleged increase of 4,000 homes in the south – an assumption of which in and of itself fails the test of reality – and statistically transformed it into a 72,000 home month to month sales gain and a 144,000 year over year home gain.   Meanwhile, the number of working age Americans who leave the workforce hits new 30-year highs every month.  We can assure you that if Americans are not working, they are also not out paying record prices for new homes.

Finally, perhaps the biggest source of financial propaganda is the Government-sponsored price controls imposed on the precious metals market.  That this occurs on a daily basis is no longer even open for debate.  The price-suppression of gold is the equivalent of shutting down all weather satellites ahead of hurricane season.   It will end in a disaster eventually.

In this episode of the Shadow of Truth, we explore the rising risk of WW3 breaking out and its connection to the current U.S. political and economic climate.  In addition, we discuss why the current effort to control the price of gold will fail:

More On The Government’s Fraudulent New Home Sales Report

This is from a reader who posted this comment:

I live in “the south” in a very very nice area by the beach.  A “developer” built over 20 new homes and purchased several more lots to build on.  His last home sold 6 months ago and the rest stay EMPTY!  Lock box, not sold, and some for sale signs have been taken off to decrease competition from the other people trying to sell their home.

The average asking price is $500,000 .  The lots are cleared but undeveloped. He put a sign up on one lot to show the home that “could” be built there IF anyone purchased it.
In short… IT’S OVER! WE’RE BACK TO 2007 LOOKING DOWN AT A DEEPER AND STEEPER DECLINE!

I’m beginning to think that the Census Bureau now includes “intent to sell” as a “sale” because I’m sure there’s a lot of people who are thinking of selling of in order  to “get ahead of the market.”  Sorry, it’s too late.

Hillary’s Crimes: Hidden In Plain Sight

In the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie…It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation.  – Adolph Hitler, “Mein Kampf”

The fact that Hillary Clinton is a few months away from the Oval Office – with the massive financial support of noted anti-humanitarians like George Soros, the Rothschild Family, Warren Buffet and most Wall Street CEOs – continues to blow my mind.

She brazenly flaunts her criminality with unabashed impudence.  She’s gotten away with every form of illegality for so long, I’m not sure she’s even intellectually, let alone Untitledemotionally, capable of distinguishing between right and wrong.

The Clinton Foundation is Hillary’s personal piggy-bank into which billions have been paid enabling the wealthiest Americans and foreigners to access the highest avenues of policy implementation deep inside Washington, DC.   That point is not even debatable.

Astonishingly, despite all the evidence, Clinton supporters smugly look the other way.

The New York Post has summarized it the best:

The Democratic Party often warns us that mixing big money and politics will corrupt democracy. They must have nominated Hillary Clinton to prove it.

The Clinton Foundation was ostensibly set up to solve the world’s most pressing problems. Though it’s done some fine work, its most fruitful program has been leveraging Clinton’s position in the State Department to enrich her family, friends and cronies…It is becoming clear the foundation was a center of influence peddling. Rock stars. Soccer players. Conglomerates. Crown princes. All of them paid in. All of them expected access to the US government.

Want a seat on a government intelligence advisory board even though you have no relevant experience? The Clinton Foundation may be able to help.

Recently released emails prove the charity’s officials had sought access to State Department personnel while Hillary was in charge. Folks like the prince of Bahrain, who donated $32 million to the foundation, needed to get in touch.

An Associated Press investigation finds that more than half the private citizens who met or spoke with Clinton while she was secretary of state also happened to donate to her foundation. What are the odds?  – New Revelations Show A Nation For Sale Under Hillary Clinton

Quite frankly, I’m at the point at which I’m rooting for an HRC Presidency.  First, I don’t think Trump is a better choice other than the fact that he’s less corrupt.  So what if he’s bankrupted his casino empire three times and so what if he skips paying taxes.  I don’t know any “three comma” net worth people who pay much in taxes.

It really doesn’t matter which candidate gets the voter reward.  It’s a Hobson’s Choice. But I want to see HRC take over the Oval Office so I can watch the utter horror on  Clinton faces when she turns on them more quickly than a steroid-addled Barry Bonds could turn on a fast-ball.  That alone will be priceless.

More On Yesterday’s New Home Sales Fraud

As I detailed yesterday – LINK – yesterday’s new home sales report was complete fiction. Notwithstanding all of the other statistical manipulations that go into the Government’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of sales metric, including flawed data sampling, Mark Hanson – who does cutting edge housing market analysis – reduced yesterday’s new home sales report to its essence:

A rounded 4,000 more homes sold on a Not Seasonally Adjusted basis than in June, ALL from the Southern region.  This added up to a massive 72,000 month to month and 114,000 year over year Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate surge and headlines of “9-year highs,” all due to bogus seasonal adjustments that should not have applied due to the number of weekends in the month…”  – Mark Hanson, M Hanson Advisors

The 4,000 more homes sold in the South month to month more than likely results from flawed data collection, for which the Census Bureau is notorious.  But even assuming that the number is good, the Government’s “seasonal adjustment” sausage grinder translated that into 72,000 more homes sold in July vs June and 114,000 year over year on a Seasonally Manipulated Annualized Rate basis.

Not to pile on to what now should be the obvious fact that the Government’s new home sales report is not more credible than its employment report – both for which the Census Bureau collects the data – Credit Suisse published research earlier in this month for July in which its market surveys showed that:

  •  its “buyer” index declined in July to 40 from 41 in June;
  • expected traffic declined in 29 of 40 markets in July vs 25 in June – including Portland, Seattle and New York experiencing “sharp declines;”
  • “Florida markets remained depressed;”
  • California overall was lower in July

Finally, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase mortgage demand hit a 6-month low in July.  New Home “sales” are based on contracts signed.   If mortgage applications and contract signings are highly correlated, as 93% of all new home buyers use a mortgage.  If mortgage applications are declining, it means that contract signings are declining.

How on earth is it at all possible that the Government was able to measure a 9-year high in new home sales for July when every other actual market transaction indicator declined, some precipitously?

The housing market is headed south right now.  Inventory is piling up all over metro-Denver, especially in the high-end areas.  Emails to me from readers who are industry professionals all over the country are reporting similar occurrences in their areas.

The Government can populate the news headlines with fraudulent propaganda – something which has become de rigeur – but propaganda and fraudulent economic reports do not generate real economic activity.  At some point the elitists running the system will be at a loss to explain the difference between their lies and reality.  That’s when we’re all in big trouble…

Guest Post: The Human Stain

I shuddered when it was announced that Stanley Fisher was elevated to co-Chairman of the Fed.  He is a wholly-corrupt representative of the neo-conservative movement that has enveloped this country.   People who consider themselves “liberals” and Democrats are unwittingly supporting a viper’s nest of necon totalitarianists.  Hillary Clinton was the mad-bomber who helped orchestrate the Obama Government’s steamrolling over Libya and the Ukraine and the attempted steamrolling over Syria.  When HRC is in the Oval Office, Stanley Fisher will be elevated to King of the Fed and it’s lights out for the middle class.

One of subscribers has written an excellent of summary of the one aspect of the political and economic drive toward totalitarianism in this country.  Notice how he omits Bernanke and Yellen.  They were mere dishrags for the people behind the scenes who are actively attempting to orchestrate the future of this country (Soros, Gates, Buffet, Rothschilds, Kissinger, etc):

I agree with you, the world’s move away from the fraudulent dollar is bigger than interest rates. My belief is that they are trying to buy two months. All they care about is winning the election, because they can loot like never before … literally trillions of dollars … as the sick, withdrawn witch is under constant medical care within the Imperial Bedroom at the WH.

This is unfolding as some kind of twisted, gothic, Elizabethan drama, with a demented Queen orchestrating State viciousness and lunacy from the privacy of her chambers. If HRC won’t even hold a press conference during her so-called campaign, what will she be like when she gets in?  She will turn her back on the people so fast it will be unprecedented in all of U.S. history. The Invisible, Corrupt, Murderous, Greedy, Thieving Queen: coming soon to the American Theater of the Absurd. And the Court of Sheer, Inexcusable American Stupidity.

There’s an old saying that our faces shed their masks as we grow older. In other words, our faces come to show who we really are. Stanley Fisher is a perfect example … that face literally exudes evil. When his face begins to talk, the situation goes from “mere” evil into depths of the inferno. Lucifer has only rarely had such a talented acolyte.

His voice is a totally contrived, studied, phony blend of arrogance, fake aristocracy, haughtiness, superciliousness, elitism, royal tonality, superiority, and condescension. It is as if he concocts it in front of his bathroom mirror to get it right … it is completely contrived and fake, and self-engineered to make him look superior. I can’t listen to him any more … my gag reflex can’t take it.

[Larry] Summers, another phony and fraud, has imported aspects of the voice from his idol, Stanley Fisher, and he too is impossible to listen to unless a person has some strange desire to vomit.

Speaking of broken masks revealing the true persons, look at Soros and Greenspan. Faces that have become truly grotesque over time, revealing who the persons truly are.

Everything the people need to know stands right before their eyes, but they do not see a thing. They listen to and worship the likes of Stanley Fisher and Greenspan as if they are gods, and not the human wrecking balls they actually are.

The political and economic collapse of the U.S. has long since “crossed the Rubicon.”  The public violence that is spreading like the plague in places like Chicago, Milwaukee and Baltimore is a symptom of this underlying collapse – a collapse that has been covered up with extreme propaganda, shock and false-flag fear events and the glorification of U.S. military imperialism.

The Government’s New Home Sales Report Is Idiotic

Absurd surges in new home sales activity were not significant…Headline reporting of this series is of no substance, as seen frequently with massive, unstable and continuously shifting revisions of recent history… – John Williams, Shadowstats.com on the June report.

Like everything else going on in the financial markets, the Government’s new home sales report is thoroughly inconsistent with all of the actualized supporting data and bears absolutely no resemblance to observable reality.

The Census Bureaus, which is notorious for producing fraudulent data, reports that new homes sales hit a 9-year high in July on a “statistically adjusted, annualized rate” basis. However, it had to revise its original report down for June to 582k from 592k.   Bloomberg theatrically describes the report as indicating “sky high momentum.”  These are, of course, fairytale numbers.

This is how John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics described last month’s new home sales report:    “Despite ‘benchmarking’ to the unstable seasonal-adjustment factors with the April 2016 release, this series remains extraordinarily unstable and consistently unreliable on a near-term month-to-month basis as weather headline sales increased or decreased.”  (Shadowstats.com)

The Government’s numbers were “driven” by an unexplainable 18% surge in new home sales in the South.  Yet, according to Redfin.com’s data for July, homes sales for July in the south’s biggest MSAs (population areas) cratered:   Atlanta -12.9%, Dallas/Ft Worth -13.3%, Miami -24.2%, Orlando -16.1% (LINK).  In other words, the Government’s metric conflicts drastically with observable reality.

Additionally, the new home sales report is entirely at odds with the ongoing economic contraction as reflected in most private-sourced economic reports.  This morning, for instance, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index collapsed the most on record (going back to 1993).   Another report on U.S. manufacturing activity released this morning showed continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, with the employment index at its lowest in four months.  If economic activity is contracting and real jobs (not Census Bureau fake jobs) are declining in number, homes are not being purchased.  Again, the new home sales report does not fit the facts.

Finally, in the report it showed that new home inventory is declining.  However, I look at several new homebuilder financial reports every quarter and they all show inventory levels that are ballooning (and being financed with debt).   For instance, Toll Brothers reported this morning (more on that later) and its inventory level of new homes increase 5.3% from the end of last quarter and 6.8% from the end of January.    DR Horton is the country’s largest new homebuilder, its inventory level has soared nearly 10% over the last four quarters.

Also, the same Census Bureau has been reporting well in excess of 1 million supposed housing starts for the last several months.  How is it possible that starts exceed sales by a significant amount and yet inventory is said to be shrinking?  Once again, the facts do not fit the report.

Remember the Redfin.com report referenced above when existing home sales are reported tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors uses the same statistical meat grinder used by the Government in producing its seasonally adjusted annualized fictional account of the housing market.

As far as demand at the lower end of the market, I will republish the market color I received earlier this month from one of my Short Seller Journal subscribers, who has been a real estate professional for over 3 decades:

You are spot-on the housing market. I think the flippers in Denver metro are driving the under $400,000 price to a frenzy and the over $500,000 in the burbs are dropping in price. Some of these flippers have 8-10 houses at the same time. A little jiggle and they will dump. Then the part time rental landlords follow in selling as the rental market gets tough.

The only reason that prices keep rising is because the Fed’s near-ZIRP interest policy and the Government’s sub-prime dressed-in-drag mortgage-lending programs have enabled buyers to pay more than ever for a home and make monthly payments – for now.  As the real economy continues to implode, delinquencies and defaults will pile up as quickly as they did from 2008-2010, led by the flippers reference in the quote above.