Category Archives: Gold

Is Demand For Physical Gold Really Collapsing?

Seriously? “Simon Black” (it’s a nom de plume) wrote an article titled “Demand For Physical Is Collapsing.”  He focused on retail bullion demand numbers. The headline and the content is largely fake news as it focuses on the demand for minted coins vs the paper gold market. We’re not really sure about the intent of article, but the content was devoid of any relevance to the actual global demand for physical gold.

While the retail minted coin and small-size bar demand is down from last year’s levels, there’s two factors to explain this. First is price. The price of gold and silver was lower in early 2016 than it is now. The price of gold in February 2017 averaged $1230-$1240 while the price of gold a year ago February averaged $1175. Retail buyers of gold/silver coins are highly sensitive to price and tend to chase the price higher, up to a point. On this basis, it’s not surprising that more minted coins were sold a year ago compared to this year. This “price effect” on the demand for retail gold and silver coins likely explains about 25% of the demand comparison between 2016 and now.

The second factor is the economy. Remember, the end user of minted bullion products is largely the retail buyer.  In the first two months of 2017, real wages have declined. Even more negative for retail sales of any sort is the fact that real disposable income has been declining on a year over basis since December 2015:

While we at the Shadow of Truth do not consider buying and owning bullion to be “discretionary,” retail sales, including sales of bullion coins, is highly dependent on the relative level of real disposable income. Thus once again it should not surprise, based on just looking at retail demand for physical bullion, that retail bullion sales are falling.

On the other hand, the Black article purports the idea that retail bullion sales represents global demand for gold and silver. Nothing could be further from the truth. Retail demand at the margin has no affect on price other than maybe the price premiums in the coin market based on mint supply and retail demand.

The majority of gold bullion demand comes from the jewelry industry, eastern hemisphere Central Banks and sophisticated wealthy and institutional investors. India and China alone import more gold than is produced from mines globally. This is why Black’s “paper gold” price is rising. It’s why the BIS and western Central Banks have failed to eliminate the significance of gold in the global monetary system.

Gold imports into India jumped 175% in February from February 2016 to 96.4 tonnes (LINK). In fact, official gold imports into India have been rising since December.  And that does not include dore bars or smuggled gold.  179 tonnes of gold was withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in February.  This is 60% higher than February 2016.  The Russian Central Bank gold reserves have been rising almost monthly since mid-2007.

To claim that the global demand for physical gold is collapsing is seeded in either ignorance or  mal-intent.  But either way, the assertion is outright idiotic when the facts are examined, which we do in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

Click on the banner above to get the details on subscribing to the Mining Stock Journal

Gold & Silver Soar After The Fed’s Clown Show

Stocks rally as the Fed once again shows how clueless they are at trying to manage the economy. – from @Stalingrad & Poorski

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC predictably nudged the Fed Funds rate up 25 basis points (one quarter of one percent) to set its “target” Fed Funds rate level at .75%-1%.   Nine of the faux-economists voted in favor of and one, Minneapolis Fed’s Neil Kashkari, voted against the meaningless rate hike.

Or is it meaningless?  Ex-Goldman Sachs banker Neil Kashkari was one of the Treasury’s Assistant Secretaries when the Government made the decision to bail out Wall Street’s biggest banks with nearly $1 trillion in taxpayer money.   It was also when the Fed dropped the Fed Funds rate from about 5% to near-zero percent.  Despite Yellen’s official stance that  the economy is expanding and the labor market is “tight” (with 37% of the working age population not considered part of the Labor Force – a little more than 94 million people) Kashkari voted against the tiny bump in interest rates.  This is likely because he is fully aware of risk to the banking system – perched catastrophically on hundreds of trillions in debt and derivatives – of moving interest rates higher.

The Fed’s goal is to “normalize” interest rates.  The financial media and Wall Street analysts embrace and discuss this idea of “normalized” interest rates but never define exactly what that means.  For the better part of the Fed’s existence, the “rule of thumb” was that long term rates (e.g. the 10-yr Treasury rate) should be about 3% above the rate of inflation.  And the Fed Funds rates should be equal to or slightly above the rate of inflation.

Using the Government’s highly rigged CPI index, it implies the Fed Funds rate would be “normalized” at approximately 2.7% and the 10-yr bond around 6% based on Wednesday’s CPI report.  Currently the Fed Funds rate is 3/4 – 1% and the 10-yr is 2.5%.  Of course, since the early 1970’s, the CPI calculation has been continuously reconstructed in order to hide the true rate of price inflation.  For instance, the current CPI index does not properly account for the rising cost of housing, education, healthcare and automobiles.

John Williams’ of Shadowstat.com  keeps track of price inflation using the methodology used by the Government to calculate the CPI in 1990 and 1980.  Using just the 1990 methodology, the rate of price inflation is 6.3%.  This would imply that a “normalized” Fed Funds rate would be around 6.5% and the 10-yr bond yield should be around 9.5%.    So much for this idea of “normalizing” interest rates.  Using the Government’s 1980 CPI methodology, Williams calculates that the stated CPI would be 10.3%.

Most of the hyperinflated money supply has been directed into stocks, bonds and real estate. But based on the cost of a basket of groceries, healthcare and housing alone, price inflation is accelerating.    If the Fed were to “normalize” interest rates at 6.3%, it would crash the financial and economic system.  In other words, the Fed is powerless to  use monetary policy in order to promote price stability, which is one of its mandates.

In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we discuss the insanity that has gripped the markets as symbolized by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meetings:

Indian Gold Imports In February Tripled

Mehul Choksi, chairman of jewellery store chain Gitanjali Gems Ltd., is quoted as saying: “We expect some heavy buying in April as a large number of weddings are expected to take place. – LINK

Legal Indian gold imports jumped up to 96.4 tonnes in February vs. February 2016. These numbers come from the finance ministry and not the World Gold Council or bullion banks. This reinforces the observations by many that the BIS-directed attempt to curtail Indian gold demand by removing cash from the financial system has failed.  Gresham’s Law in action.   This number also does not include smuggled gold which, based on the increase in airport arrests so far in 2017, has ramped up considerably.

Amusingly, Cititgroup is forecasting total 2017 demand in India to be 725 tonnes.  This number is laughable.  Smuggling alone is thought to account for about 300 tonnes per year of gold going in to India.  As a bullion bank with an untenable paper gold short position, Citigroup can only dream that India’s gold importation will be that low in 2017.

There will be a big “snap-back” effect on India’s gold demand after the brief intervention by the Government in late 2016.  Based on yesterday’s response in the paper gold market in NYC after the Fed’s rate hike announcement, it seems that the western Central Banks/bullion banks are losing control of the bullion market.

You certainly do provide solid research and with that, Value. But also, you actually are there responding to emails which says a TON about you, your commitment to your products, company, and us….the subscribers.  For that, I thank you. – subscriber feedback

You can check out the Mining Stock Journal by clicking here:    MSJ LINK

Gold & Silver Manipulation: The Biggest Financial Crime In History

Investment Research Dynamics is pleased to present another truth-seeking missile launched by Stewart Dougherty:

This crime is already 285 times bigger than the LIBOR scandal, and 500 times bigger than Madoff’s swindle. It is, in fact, the largest, most destructive financial crime in history.

According to the mainstream financial media (MFM), the biggest financial frauds in history are the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, with roughly $20 billion in net investor losses, and the Bank State rigging of LIBOR, which resulted in 16 guilty banks paying $35 billion in fines, which supposedly equated to their theft.

The MFM have conveniently ignored a far larger financial crime that has been perpetrated for 37 years and counting, and that has netted its orchestrators more than $1,000,000,000,000.00 ($1 trillion) in stolen profits. This crime is so powerful that it can produce fraudulent proceeds of $1+ billion on demand and in minutes, making it unique in the annals of theft. It is a crime that has been committed literally thousands of times since 1980, and is now being committed in the most blatant and brazen manner ever. This crime is already 285 times bigger than the LIBOR scandal, and 500 times bigger than Madoff’s swindle. It is, in fact, the largest, most destructive financial crime in history.

To read the rest of this, please click here:  Gold & Silver Manipulation

 

Can Valeant Go To Zero?

Valeant (VRX) stock is now at $10. After a brief, Roman Candle launch to $260, $10 is the level where it traded in early 2009. It may be one of the few stocks that has gone back its financial crisis trading level. It is now likely on a long, slow death march to zero.

It was reported that Bill Ackman has completely liquidated his Pershing Square hedge fund position in VRX.  Any institutional investment manager or pension fund who left its investment in Pershing Square long enough to see this happen should be investigated for breach of fiduciary duty.   Ackman’s fund reportedly lost over $4 billion in VRX.  I suspect that number was massaged to the low side for public consumption purposes.

I began to look at VRX with a fine-tooth comb just about 12 months ago.  On March 15, 2016, I wrote:  “The SEC Should Suspend VRX Trading: The Company Smells Like Enron.” The stock had dropped fro $260 to $37 in less than a year:

The initial triggers were concerns over the Valeant’s drug-pricing policies and questions surrounding its methodology for booking revenues. However, with just a casual “look under the hood” at VRX’s SEC-filed financials, there is likely a great deal of fraud lurking beneath what’s already been questioned. In fact, this is starting to smell a lot like Enron or Bear Stearns. The only component missing from this story is a CNBC rant from Cramer issuing a table-pounding buy on VRX stock. That may yet occur.

To begin with, the Company is carrying $30.2 billion in long term debt against just $9 billion of tangible assets. $39 billion of VRX’s assets is in the form of goodwill and intangibles. VRX’s self-assessed book value is $6.4 billion. But VRX’s tangible book value is negative $32.6 billion.

On March 18, 2016, I wrote: “Valeant (VRX): ‘Hope’ Is Not A Valid Investment Strategy,” after the stock had dropped another 28% from March 15th:

VRX will not default because the banks will grant as much leeway to VRX as is needed to keep the corpse alive. At this point in time, VRX’s assets likely are worth enough to cover the bank debt obligations. Just like a vampire would want to keep a body warm and the pulse ticking while sucking out the blood, the banks will hold up VRX in order to get as much money out as possible.

Of course, the longer this drags out, the uglier it will become for all economically interested parties. Because there’s accounting and disclosure fraud involved, we can expect the class-action shareholder lawsuits to pile up once the lawyers get a whiff of the blood being sucked out by the banks.Untitled

But keeping VRX alive for creditor purposes won’t help the stock. At this stage in the game, VRX stock will descend – sometimes quickly, sometimes slowly – below $10. In other words, VRX’s stock has entered the Irreversible Debt Spiral.

On April 5, 2016, I wrote: “Valeant (VRX): The Short Seller’s ATM Machine” after the stock popped up on news that an “internal review” showed that its books were clean. There’s that “hope” trade again:

The Company’s declaration that its financials are now valid is based on a review of the matter conducted by a committee that was composed of VRX’s board of directors. In no way can the case be made that this review was in any respect independent or “arm’s length.” This is another trait of a Company that is on the ropes: self-declared exoneration.

Without a doubt, the path of VRX’s stock to much lower stock prices will be littered with news-driven price-spikes like today. This is why VRX stock is a short-seller’s ATM. Every spike can be shorted for short-term profits. Make sure to hold on to some amount of a “core” position in order to profit from the next eventual new-driven waterfall. This is how similar stocks before VRX – like Enron, Bear Stearns, Countrywide FInancial, etc – traded until they finally dropped below $10.

Over the next few months I followed the VRX drama including its attempted asset sales. The Company was unloading “core” businesses for a fraction of the price it had paid for them over the previous few years. To this day I can not understand how:  1) Ackman continued to throw good money after bad in an attempt to prop up a house of cards and 2) how Ackman’s investors allowed him to continue throwing good money after bad. It only took one detailed review of VRX’s business history and 10-K to see that VRX was quite similar to Enron.

The Valeant saga is emblematic of the entire U.S. political, economic and financial system. The entire system is enveloped by the criminality of the people and entities running it – a criminality cloaked in catastrophically unpayable debt and now blatant fraud. It was a similar environment in this country when Enron imploded and those of us who understood what was happening had hoped that Enron would be the warning signal to everyone that would inspire the badly needed reform. Unfortunately, Greenspan inflated an even bigger fraudulent asset bubble than the one he had previously inflated that had led to Enron. You know the rest of the story from there.

Now our system is beset with a monetary and debt bubble that has inflated all asset classes beyond any conceivably recognizable “intrinsic” value. The Valeants and Enrons were fair warning and no one listened. The next collapse is going to dwarf the implosion of the two asset bubbles that preceded it. Fortunately, for those who are willing to “see” and accept this inevitable fate, gold and silver (precious metals) is the one asset class that has been fraudulently held down well below their intrinsic value.

If you are still holding on to some Valeant stock, let go of that insanely irrational “hope,” sell your shares and use the money to buy some gold and silver.

Gold And Silver: Legal Weapons Against The Deep State

  • Question:  Why do Central Banks and Governments hate gold?
  • Answer:  Because they can’t print it

“An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.”  – Alan Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom”

Just like everything else in the western financial system, the paper trading markets are leveraged beyond redemption.   The amount of paper “claims” on actual physical gold was estimated to be 100:1 in 2010.   We can assure you that ratio is much higher now.  On the Comex alone, for instance, if more than 9% of the  April open interest in gold futures were to stand for delivery – based on the currently declared 1.4 million ounces of gold reported as being “available for delivery” (registered) – the Comex would default.  The entire open interest in gold futures is 60x greater than the amount of gold available for delivery.

This is just the publicly traded paper gold derivatives.  There’s also the shady world of OTC gold derivatives.  We have no idea what kind of leverage is embedded in these contracts.  But the total notional amount of OTC “precious metals” derivatives according to the OCC’s latest quarterly report on OTC derivatives (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) is over $28 billion.  Just to highlight the degree to which the Government goes in order to hide the facts about the gold and silver market, the OCC used to break out OTC precious metals derivatives into the categories of “gold” and “silver and other.”  Now the OCC  reports just “precious metals.”  What is it that the Government and banks are hiding?

The amount of leverage embedded in a Comex futures contract, based on the current amount of margin required, is about 25:1.  There’s no telling how much leverage is embedded in the OTC derivatives agreements.  All we know is that the disclosure requirements are becoming increasingly more opaque.

Silver futures began trading on the CBOT in 1969.   But gold futures were not around until 1974, three years after the U.S. closed the gold window, completely disconnecting the dollar from gold.   Gold futures were developed to enable the Fed and the U.S. Treasury to control the price of gold as a means of reinforcing the legitimacy of the dollar as a fiat currency used as the world’s reserve currency.

While the price of gold has been heavily manipulated since at least the 1960’s, when the U.S. was running out of enough gold to fulfill its obligations under Bretton Woods, the manipulation and “shock and awe” price attacks are used as a form of propaganda that is designed to discourage investors from converting fiat dollars into gold and silver.  It’s a powerful weapon used by the Deep State against gold and economic freedom.

In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth we discuss the manipulation of gold and silver and how it’s used by the Deep State to increase the Government’s control over the population:

Chris Martenson: The Mother Of All Bubbles

The Daily Coin sat down with Chris Martenson to discuss the hijacking of the system by the wealthy insider elites and the banks:

The system is rigged against each of us. If you are not a member of the “big club” then you, like myself, have to live with the fact that we are nothing more than an ATM for the uber wealthy. We supply all their toys, entertainment and wealth. The sad part is, we do it willingly.

Here’s how bad it is. You wanna know how bad this is? They don’t even care about optics any more. JP Morgan yesterday announced for the last four years they have only experienced two days of trading loses. There’s about 200 trading days a year. So, out of 800 days only 2 days were loses, but 2016 that number was zero. No day loses and their average take, “from trading the markets” was $80 MILLION a day. Chris Martenson, The Daily Coin

On Thursday March 2 silver was monkey-hammered to the tune of more than a 4% drop in under an hour. There was more than $2 BILLION of digital contracts dropped on the “market” during this time to achieve this massive drop. Gold was, to a degree, spared and only suffered about a 2% drop. Silver was the focus of the bullion banking cartel.

Here’s the thing. These criminal banksters do NOTHING to produce wealth. Their job is stealing. If you or I were to commit a crime, like market rigging, we would be in federal prison on several felony charges, including conspiracy, and would be treated like the criminal we are. The banksters, on the other hand, are treated like royalty for committing the same crime on a global scale. Their crimes should actually be considered crimes against humanity as these crimes impact millions upon millions of people.

The Deep State’s Gold Scam And The Demonization Of Russia

To me, what’s really going on needs to be explained to people or they are going to completely give up on the hope of finding / preserving a way to protect their financial freedom … in other words, getting out of the corrupt monetary system and into metals, while they still can.

This price pummeling [of gold and silver this week] is absolutely state-of-the-art Psy-Op…managed by the Fed and Bank State, using the most sophisticated techniques developed over decades by the CIA and related agencies. – Stewart Dougherty in an email exchange about his latest article

Must-read Guest Post from Stewart Dougherty

As the Fiscal Year 2018 budget, and particularly its war component are floated, it has become clear that without continued, massive military spending, paid for with mass-produced electrons masquerading as money, U. S. GDP would collapse, taking the country’s financial and monetary systems with it. The nation, whose real economy has been hollowed out, for profit, by the Deep State plunderers, has become significantly reliant upon deliberately contrived wars and military tensions for its economic survival.

With systemic monetary risk now at an unprecedented level, intensified by a new, partisan, “politics of defeat,” scorched earth agenda being implemented by those displeased with the results of the 2016 election, there has never been a more dangerous time for people to denominate their wealth in unbacked, baseless, debt-drugged dollars.

The absolute last thing the Deep State, and particularly its Banking Division (the Bank State), can allow the people to figure out at this time is that there is a far more safe, secure and potentially profitable way for them to position their financial assets than dollar-denominated bank deposits: precious metals. A widespread movement into metals at this time would damage the Bank State and its umbrella organization, the Deep State, because their future profits require the control and progressive expropriation of the people’s money.

Therefore, a March rate hike is guaranteed, for three primary reasons. First, precious metals prices must be pummeled as much as possible, in order to scare uninformed people away from the easy, safe and logical financial refuge metals provide. Even though the “rates up, metals prices down” reflexive reaction is absurd, it has been baked into the trading algorithms so that it will occur no matter what other factors might be in play when rates are increased. Strategic Deep State price fraud, which is perpetrated by internationally signaled, time-coordinated and algorithmic inside trading, ensures that metals prices can reliably be controlled. At least for now. When physical demand finally increases in a material way, the price fixing fraud will collapse.

Second, the Bank State must increase the incentive for people to keep their money in its institutions, while it pushes forward, as fast as possible, with its cash elimination agenda. Once cash is eliminated, the banks will no longer have to worry about bank runs, which would otherwise be historic when the  wheels coming flying off the thoroughly debauched monetary system, an event we view as inevitable.

Third, the Federal Reserve System is now 100% politicized, and run by sneaky, die-hard political ideologues who lie about why they do what they do and what they really think. Those who run the Fed are despondent that despite implementing for eight YEARS an interest rate policy specifically designed to enable Obama to create a totally false illusion of economic “recovery” by massively increasing government spending with trillions of phony, deficit, zero-interest-rate “dollars,” the people saw through the economic lie and defeated the Fed’s next intended puppet, Clinton.

Yellen, Fischer and the other partisan Fed governors are simply not going to allow Trump to turn around, in a matter of months, an economy that the Deep State and the Fed have systematically been looting, at mind-boggling and astronomical profit to themselves, for the past decade. Nor are they going to allow Trump to bask in DJIA-record glory. Therefore, the power- and money-obsessed functionaries at the Fed and within the Deep State, who all totally buy into the scorched earth agenda, are going to bring down the economy and markets, even if it means that every single private pension fund and the net worth of every non-connected citizen collapses with it. They couldn’t care less about that, as we are about to see, because they will have a scapegoat for what they, themselves have wrought: Trump. The Fed, in league with many others, is now doing everything in its power to rig the 2018 mid-term elections, in order to live up to its Sole Mandate, which is the preservation of political power.

While we deeply admire what President Trump is trying to do to expose to the people and turn around the fake economy in which the nation is drowning, we believe the challenge of reversing, in the short amount of time available to him, decades’ worth of asset stripping, corruption and for-profit economic destruction is beyond extreme. And the constant political obstructionism he is up against, which is increasingly treasonous, might make the achievement of his worthy objective impossible.

With this as our backdrop, let us move on to the geopolitics of gold, which while it might seem abstract and removed, we believe is highly relevant to your personal financial situation.

Aside from being tedious, politicized and baseless drama, the ongoing demonization of Russia, particularly with respect to its so-called rigging of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, makes no common sense. But it makes perfect Deep State sense. It is about war-mongering, global destabilization, internationalized looting and the continued plunder of the American people, the for-profit enterprises in which the Deep State specializes.

We believe that there is actually a more specific reason for the demonization of Russia than the above, usual suspects. This is a case where one should not just follow the money; one should follow the gold.

For the past fifteen plus years, physical gold supplies have been like Lazarus: they keep rising from the Dead. Just when it appears that a serious supply-demand imbalance is about to precipitate futures market delivery problems and therefore increased prices, supply miraculously appears out of nowhere to alleviate the shortage and stabilize or depress prices.

This surprise supply has primarily come from sovereign central banks: for example, 1,500 metric tonnes from one-time sound money nation Switzerland; 600 from France; 430 from the United Kingdom (most at the bear market’s absolute low price of around $255.00/ ounce; central bank “genius” for all to see); 300 from Netherlands; 225 from Portugal; 240 from Spain; 180 from Venezuela and counting; 90 from Brazil. And the list goes on.

Each sovereign sale has produced needed physical gold at times of supply – demand imbalance, many of which have been critical. This has enabled the paper gold price manipulation fraud to persist without any failures to deliver or the need to set a true, as opposed to fake gold price. A delivery failure, even a minor one, would expose and terminate the Deep State’s enormously profitable price rigging fraud, and has therefore been prevented at all cost.

The Deep State’s overthrow of legitimate, sovereign governments has been another means by which needed gold supply has been injected into the pipeline. After Libya was overthrown, 143 tonnes of the nation’s gold disappeared. Dozens of additional tonnes disappeared from Iraq subsequent to its invasion.

Ukraine provides another example. Immediately after Neocon, Deep State functionary and State Department plant Victoria “F**k the EU” Nuland launched the for-profit coup d’etat in Ukraine, 43 tonnes of the nation’s gold, worth $1.7 billion at $1,200 per ounce, were airlifted out of the country in the middle of the night and went missing.

(As a side note, it is worth mentioning that while the cargo plane’s exhaust was dissipating into the Ukrainian atmosphere, Vice President Biden’s storied son, Hunter, miraculously appeared on the Board of Directors of Burisma Holdings, the largest private natural gas producer in Ukraine. Biden was joined by close friend Devon Archer, a lead fundraiser for by-then Secretary of State John Kerry’s 2004 presidential bid. Archer is also the former college roommate and current business partner of Kerry’s stepson, Christopher Heinz (an heir to the H. J. Heinz fortune). These two ascendancies to Burisma’s Board were curious, given that Biden and Archer had no natural gas production or Ukrainian business experience whatsoever, did not speak one word of Ukrainian and had never previously stepped foot in the country. This gives us better insight into the true nature of the Deep State’s murderous, gold-seeking and highly profitable coups.)

While the perfectly-timed materializations of sovereign gold have plugged the Delivery Failure dike at various critical moments, there have been two persistent demand problems that have bedeviled the Deep State’s designs: Russia and China.

China’s official gold reserves surged from 395 tonnes in Q2, 2000 to 1,838 tonnes in Q3, 2016. This number, impressive in itself, dramatically understates China’s actual, official gold reserves, which many well-informed analysts put at 5,000 tonnes, minimum. China’s official reserves do not include the thousands of additional tonnes imported into the country for the private sector during the same period.

While the Deep State routinely pummels the paper price of gold both to mint fraudulent profits on the futures exchanges and scare financially naïve western citizens away from it, the Chinese government urges its citizens to buy gold, which they do by the millions of ounces. The Chinese government knows what is coming, and wants its citizens to be prepared. Apparently, capitalism and communism have traded places, which will result in an exorbitant cost to the people of the west.

Meantime, Russia’s gold supply increased from 343 tonnes in Q2 2000 to 1543 tonnes in Q3, 2016.

Remarkably, it increased by 508 tonnes from Q1, 2014 to Q3, 2016, alone. This occurred when Russian sanctions, which were intended to destroy Russia’s economy and currency, were in place. The sanctions were not only expected to halt Russia’s ongoing gold purchases, but also force them to sell some or all of their existing reserves in order to raise cash, which is exactly what Venezuela has been forced to do since early 2014.

Chess Master Putin went in the exact opposite direction, by dramatically increasing the nation’s purchases of gold. This was unexpected and has put the Deep State on the defensive. It had counted on fresh supply from Russian to keep the supply – demand balance in equilibrium, and to prevent the Delivery Failure dike from breaching.

One way the Deep State reacted to Russia’s unexpected, continued demand was to engineer the out-of-nowhere Indian rupee demonetization, which stripped the Indian people of the cash they have traditionally used to purchase gold. This plan was effective at reducing Indian gold demand in the beginning, but is now backfiring, just as the attempt to reduce Russian gold demand backfired.

If China and Russia continue to buy gold at current rates, the only way the Deep State’s paper gold price manipulation fraud can continue is if other sovereign gold reserves are put into play, or, if physical demand is somehow diminished. While the Deep State is pursuing both tactics, their options are shrinking.

Even though sovereign gold sale risks remain, the value of nations’ reserves at the current fake price of gold is absolutely meaningless when compared to their exploding debts.

For example, Italy’s 2,452 tonnes of gold are worth $95 billion at $1,200 per ounce; the government’s debt is $2.45 trillion. France’s 2,436 tonnes are worth about the same, $95 billion; it national debt is $2.44 trillion. The same situation exists in virtually every western nation. Therefore, even if these countries were to sell all of their gold, it would not buy them any meaningful or lasting fiscal or financial relief whatsoever. There has never been a more pointless time for nations to sell their gold, particularly at today’s fake price.

To further amplify this point, the United States is reported to own 8,133 tonnes of gold, supposedly the world’s largest stockpile. (We disagree; to us, the arithmetic is clear that China now owns more.) This is the equivalent of 261.5 million ounces troy ounces, or about 0.82 troy ounces per citizen. At $1,200 per ounce, the reserve is worth $314 billion. The nation’s actual, annual deficits are roughly $1 trillion per year, more than three times the value of the entire gold reserve. The nation’s existing debt and contingent, unfunded liabilities exceed $200 trillion. Therefore, the nation’s gold supply could only pay off 0.16%, or one sixth of one percent of the nation’s current obligations. If it has not already done so, the United States could sell every ounce of the people’s gold and it would not make one bit of difference to the nation’s fiscal situation.

The U.S. gold reserve has not been professionally, comprehensively audited since 1953. We will not go into the U.S. gold audit topic here, because it has already been well documented. You can find the details with a simple search, if you wish to learn more. But we would like to point out something that is not typically noted.

In order to create positive “optics,” the United States government consistently massages, manipulates and even totally misrepresents a wide variety of financial, economic and monetary statistics (such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, money supply, interest rates, retail sales and many others). These positive optics are viewed as being crucial to preserving confidence in the nation’s economy and fiat currency.

Accordingly, one would expect that if the United States gold reserve actually exists, physically and unencumbered, the government would go out of its way to prove and advertise it, in order to create the favorable optics it spends so much time and effort engineering about everything else.

Instead, they refuse to conduct a professional audit, invoking the truly ridiculous excuse that it would be too costly to do so. One specialist has estimated that a comprehensive, independent audit would cost $10 million, which is approximately 1 MINUTE of federal spending, literally. So the expense excuse makes no common sense, and arouses serious and legitimate suspicion about the true state of America’s gold reserve.

The foregoing factors help explain the intensifying demonization and scapegoating of Russia. The Deep State needs to prevent Russia from continuing to buy gold in quantity, and is therefore intensifying its efforts to damage the country’s reputation, economy and currency.

Based on these and several other factors, the Inferential Analytics model is signaling that there is a strong probability the Deep State’s gold price manipulation fraud is dying, and that the imbalance in physical gold supply is becoming systemic and reaching a point where it can no longer be bridged with sovereign, stolen or fake supplies. This increases the risk of futures market delivery failure. The occurrence of any significant endogenous event at this time, such as an unexpected military, social, economic or financial disruption, that provokes a further reduction in supply or even a modest increase in demand, would dramatically increase the probability of delivery failure and a resulting, necessary, sharp increase in the price of gold.

The fact that the paper gold price manipulation fraud is reaching the end of the line due to deteriorating supply – demand fundamentals is exactly why we are seeing a radical, concurrent Deep State escalation of the War on Cash. Cashlessness is the Deep State’s upcoming Looting Field, and is designed to replace Gold market price fixing as its next, organized, long-term method of plunder. The elimination of cash will result in the largest looting spree ever orchestrated by the Deep State.

Every time the Deep State hatches a new looting scheme, they dress it up in false righteousness, phony morality and motherhood. In the case of cash elimination, they say it is needed to fight terrorism, drug laundering, tax evasion and crime. This is a huge, concocted, pre-packaged lie; the same kind that Hitler and Goebbels used. Hitler said and proved that if you make the lie big, and repeat it again and again, the people will come to believe it. This is the exact kind of lie the Deep State is telling to push its corrupt, greed-diseased, epically evil cash elimination scam.

While the Deep State demonizes Russia to perpetuate its gold price fixing profit center for as long as possible, it is simultaneously building, as fast as it can maximum security prisons for the people’s money. For the bricks, they intend to use your cash; for the mortar, they are mixing a stinking amalgam of their lies, corruption and greed. We can be sure of one thing: if we allow them to imprison our money in their cashless prisons, they will grind it into oblivion by fees and fraud, and our financial slavery will become inescapable. Please, do not underestimate what is happening all around you, and use your current quasi-freedom wisely.

Stewart Dougherty
March 2, 2017

Stewart Dougherty is the creator of Inferential Analytics (IA), a forecasting method that applies to events proprietary, time-tested principles of human instinct, desire and action. In his view, forecasting methods not fundamentally based upon principles of human action are unlikely to be reliable over time. He is a graduate of Tufts University (BA) and Harvard Business School (MBA), is a 35+ year veteran of the business trenches and has developed IA over a period of 15+ years.

Will The SNAP IPO Mark The Top?

The only aspect of the SNAP IPO that was more horrifying than the media attention given to monitoring SNAP’s first trade of the day is the valuation assigned to it by investors. Janet Yellen undoubtedly was not thinking about SNAP when she happened to mention in her Congressional testimony last week that “valuation metrics do appear…stretched.” That assertion is unarguably one of the most shameless understatements in history.

SNAP is being marketed by its financial promoters as “a camera company.” In reality it’s little more than a glorified social media business model. The product empowers the user to send photos and videos to friends rather than using a text message. Big deal. In 2016, SNAP generated $404 million in revenues and but lost $514 million. That’s the manipulated GAAP number for net income. The Company’s operation burned $611 million. Note: these are the numbers prepared by the Company that were used to generate the highest possible price for the IPO, which means the numbers are likely not accurate.

At IPO SNAP was valued at 54 times revenues. That’s the kind of multiple that a venture capital company would pay for a newly emerging company with a unique product that is still embedded with largely unquantifiable risks of the investment going to zero. SNAP is a newly emerging company which offers just another “flavor” of social medial. Mind you, this is a social media tool that is primarily used by millennials and “Gen Z’ers” who quickly tire of the latest cellphone app fad du jour. In fact, new user fatigue is already showing up in the number.   Over the last 4 quarters, the quarterly growth in growth “active daily users” has slowed considerably – just 4% from Q3 to Q4 – and its flat-lined in the rest of the world outside of the U.S. and Europe.

As a social media company, SNAP’s user growth-rate curve is already significantly below that of Facebook and Twitter in their early stages as public companies.  In truth, if SNAP wants to insist on being a “camera company,” then its stock likely will follow the same path as that of GoPro.  GoPro IPO’d in June 2014 at $24.   The first trade was at $30. The stock ran up to $98.  It currently trades at $9.40.

The overarching issue here is whether or not the grotesquely overvalued SNAP IPO will mark the top of this seemingly indefatigable rise in stocks.   Since closing above the 20k holy grail level on February 3rd, the Dow has risen another 1,100 index points in just 17 trading days, while the meatheads on financial bubblevision have been mindlessly cheering on the action with drool sliding down the sides of their mouths.   27.5% percent of this move occurred after Trump’s congressional address Tuesday night.  Conspicuously absent from the speech was any new policy ideas which might have been responsible for causing the ludicrous spike up in stocks.

David Stockman has called this action in the stock market “the greatest sucker’s rally of all time.”  In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we discuss the insanity that has drawn mom and pop retail investors into the “warm water” with its Siren’s call.

The Deep State’s Message: Prepare For Totalitarianism

I find the current political situation to be as bad as I thought it would be when I forecasted it about ten years ago. The worst is yet to come. The corruption in the system is becoming much more apparent. The extreme biases in the mainstream media in favor of their particular owner’s faction is fairly obvious…The moneyed class turned the law and the thought leaders framing to their own benefit, and would now do anything they can to keep their ill-gotten gains. – “Jesse,” from Jesse’s Cafe Americain

Were you aware that the Government is starting to implement eye-scanners as part of the airport security protocol?  If you doubt that, then read this:  U.S. Marshals Scanned My Retina.   The TSA circus is all for show. It’s a way for the Government to get us used to following its orders and a way for the manufacturers of the technology used to make billions from selling that technology to the Government.   It also is an excuse for the Government to create employment for those who lack the competency to find a job in the private sector.

Ben Franklin said, to paraphrase, those who are willing to give up some freedom in exchange for security will end up with neither.  That’s where we are today, America.  The Patriot Act was written well over a year before 9/11.   The blueprint for the Department of Homeland Security was crafted in the mid-1990’s, during Clinton’s presidency.

It’s all stunningly Orwellian.  Even the terms used to describe newly created Government functions are right out of “Animal Farm” and “1984.”  The totalitarian control, confiscation of wealth by those in a position to confiscate and the use of technology to invade and regulate our private lives was prophesied by Orwell, Ayn Rand (“Atlas Shrugged”) and Aldous Huxley (“Brave New World”).    The technology that we take for granted as making our lives better is being used to remove our rights and freedoms.

Ironically, it all starts with the control of  the monetary system.  Those who control a nation’s currency need not be concerned about who or what makes the laws (Mayer Rothschild).   A few unelected “officials” control the United States’ creation of currency, which is then used as a tool to confiscate wealth – at first slowly and soon it will happen all at once.

In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we discuss the Orwellian fog that is enveloping the nation and connect the political control our lives to the control of interest rates and gold: