Tag Archives: Comex

WTF Just Happened: Gold Forms A Bottom And 420-Time For Elon Musk

Perhaps the most baffling aspect of the Elon Musk “Funding Secured” tweet is the number of financial media outlets and so-called “analysts” that are taking it seriously. The idea is a complete joke. Any valuation in excess of potential asset value minus the debt and other liabilities (included in “liabilities” will soon be a flood of lawsuits). Some bucket-shop stock analysts issued reports explaining why a buyout of Tesla could occur at an even higher price. We’re beginning wonder if the Tesla buyout idiocy will mark the end of the valuation insanity that has permeated the entire U.S. stock market…Meanwhile, hedge funds assumed a record short position in Comex paper gold futures. This along with the worst sentiment toward the precious metals since early 2001 and late 2015 suggest the potential for a bottom in gold, silver and mining shares.

In this episode of “WTF Just Happened?” we discuss these issues plus offer a view on the correlation between the dollar-price of gold and the $/yuan (WTF Just Happened is a produced in association with Wall St. For Main Street – Eric Dubin may be reached at  Facebook.com/EricDubin):

****************************

Tesla is on its way to bankruptcy.  I don’t know how long it will take that to occur but the Company will be insolvent if it can’t raise money before the end of the year.  I explain why a buyout of the Company is next to impossible in the next issue of the Short Seller’s Journal and offer several ideas for using put options to express a bearish view of Tesla stock.

Visit these links to learn more about the Investment Research Dynamic’s  Mining Stock Journal and Short Seller’s Journal.   

The Trading Action In Gold

There’s no question in my mind that the intervention in the gold market is similar to the intervention that occurred in 2008 ahead of the financial crisis. However, I believe that,
because of the massive physical off-take in the eastern hemisphere, the western Central
Banks and bullion banks will be unable to push the price gold down on the same scale as it
was taken down in 2008 from March to October. Currently, gold is 15% above the low it hit at the end of 2015. It’s 7% above the interim low it hit at the end of 2016.

As of last week, money managers (hedge funds primarily) held the biggest net-short position in futures and options in records going back to 2006. A measure of gold volatility is near the lowest since January.

My good friend and colleague, Chris Marcus, invited me onto his podcast show that he produces for Miles Franklin.  We discuss the gold market, the deterioration U.S. economy and the reasons I believe that the trading action in gold and silver is preceding another financial collapse similar to 2008 only worse:

*************

In the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal, which was released this afternoon, I present data that suggests the current decline in the price of gold is beginning to bottom and is setting up for a big move in to the fall. Also discuss my view of the theory that China has pegged the price of gold to the yuan and I present a gold stock idea that has dropped price to a level that makes it “stupid cheap.” You can learn more about this newsletter here: Mining Stock Journal information

Prelude To A 2008 Event: Paper Gold Manipulation Intensifies

The trading action in the paper gold markets of London and NY this week further convinces me that gold is being pushed down in price by the western Central Banks similar to the take-down in the paper price that occurred in 2008.  The motive is to prevent a soaring gold price from signalling to the markets that a big problem is percolating in the global economic and banking systems.

Once again, in the early morning the price of gold was slammed just after the London a.m. price Fix (3 a.m. EST) and again at the open of the Comex gold pit (8:20 a.m. EST) – click on image to enlarge:

This pattern has been persistent over the last two months.  It’s not about gold being “pinned” to the SDR, as Jim Rickards is now promoting.  And it’s not about some mystical gold peg to the yuan.  It’s about western Central Bank desperation to keep the dollar alive in order to defer the inevitable collapse of the record level of dollar-denominated debt and the associated derivatives.

It’s no coincidence that Rickards has floated this theory about the gold price and the SDR recently.  Rickards was rolled out several years ago to promote the idea that the SDR would be the next reserve currency. The Deep State knows the dollar’s life-span is limited. The U.S. dollar is 58% of the SDR, making the SDR the best replacement of the dollar which thereby enables the U.S. Deep State to maintain some semblance of global hegemony.

For the time being, gold is trading almost in perfect inverse correlation with the dollar. The dollar currently is rising vs. all fiat currencies. Therefore, of course it might look visually like gold and the yuan or gold and the yen are trading in tight correlation. But at the root it’s all about the dollar and the effort to prevent the dollar from collapsing.

As for the brewing collapse of the financial system, here’s an interesting chart comparing Deutsche Bank’s stock price with the gold since the beginning for February. The idea here is that the Fed/ECB/BoE began to work on the gold price when it became obvious that the world’s most systemically dangerous bank was in a state of collapse:

Certainly the mining stocks are generally “skeptical” of gold’s price action since April:

And has anyone checked gold lease rates lately?  Currently the lease rate curve for gold and silver in London is inverted. In fact, lease rates gold from 3 months to a year are negative.  Negative lease rates mean the Central Banks will pay bullion banks to lease gold and silver.  Long-timers like me know that this means there’s an immediate and anticipated shortage of physical gold and silver available for delivery, where “delivery” means the metal is removed from the London vaults and shipped to the entitled buyer.

Both gold and silver are backwardated.  It took 11 iterations in the LBMA p.m. fix on Tuesday to balance out the heavy demand for physical gold from bidders. 11 iterations is rare occurrence. 5-6 iterations is rare. 1 or 2 is typical. Metal is tight in London.

If you are monitoring the Comex Hong Kong kilo bar vaults, you are aware that the movement in and out of the vaults there suggests that metal is also tight in Hong Kong, which means it is likely tight in Shanghai.

The point here is that the paper price behavior of gold right now is not what it seems.  I’d be more worried about the motives behind the take-down of the gold price using derivatives than I would about where the price of gold will be in 3-6 months.  I’ve always said that the occurrence of events triggering the price of gold to soar  will make life unpleasant for everyone.

The explosive questions the gold riggers won’t answer-and the press won’t ask

Over the years, I’ve asked several skeptics of the idea that Central Banks and Governments, using the bullion banks as their agents, manipulate the gold price this question:   The Big Banks have been convicted and fined numerous times for manipulating interest rate and currency markets.  Is it realistically conceivable given this fact that they would leave the gold market alone?  The question, of course, is rhetorical and I’ve yet to receive an answer.

The answer is obvious to anyone who has looked at the facts.  I have written several articles with Paul Craig Roberts detailing how the manipulation is executed on the Comex and the motivation behind the manipulating the gold market.  Remarkably, there are public notes of a meeting chaired by Henry Kissinger in 1974  that discusses the importance of removing gold completely from the monetary system which is conveniently ignored.

The following is a re-post of an article posted by GATA’s Chris Powell. Even if you have your had in the sand and refuse to believe that Central Banks and Governments manipulate the global gold market using paper gold derivatives, at least brush the sand out of your eyes and read this carefully:

How easy it would be for any major financial news organization or trade association to confirm, expose, and combat the rigging of the gold market by governments and central banks. Such an effort could start with the documentation, most of it from official sources, collected by GATA and compiled here: Taxonomy

Everything could be nailed down to the present moment by a few specific questions put to the key participants in the rigging. These questions already have been prepared and posed, just not publicized enough.

— Three months ago U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, wrote to the secretary of the treasury and the chairman of the Federal Reserve asking what the U.S. government’s policy on gold is and whether it remains, as government records from years ago establish, to drive the monetary metal out of the world financial system. Mooney also asked whether the U.S. government, directly or through intermediaries, like the Bank for International Settlements, trades in gold and gold derivatives and what the purposes of any such transactions are. Mooney’s letter is posted at GATA’s internet site here: Mooney Letter

Mooney has received no response.

– Last November GATA put similar questions to the BIS. What, GATA asked, is the purpose of the gold swaps and derivatives purchased and sold by the bank and the purpose of the bank’s involvement in the gold market generally?

The bank replied promptly but only to say it would not answer the question: BIS Letter

— Five weeks ago your secretary/treasurer and GATA consultant Harvey Organ wrote to the comptroller of the currency in the Treasury Department, Joseph M. Otting, whose office regulates the banking industry, calling attention to the recent explosion in use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” to settle gold and silver contracts issued on the New York Commodities Exchange by government-regulated banks. The financial risks undertaken by the banks in these transactions, GATA wrote, apparently were not being reported to the comptroller.

GATA’s letter concluded: “Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?” The comptroller has not responded.

Please click here to read the rest – it’s worth the time spent:   Unanswered Questions About Official Gold-Rigging

What’s Going On With Gold?

Several of us who stick our neck out in public with analytic opinions on the market have been thinking  that gold has reached a tradable bottom.  I’m sure many would say that view is flawed based on today’s action.  Let me preface my thoughts by saying that, over the last 17 years of daily active involvement in the precious metals sector, I don’t pull my hair out over intra-day or even intra-year volatility.  Measured from the beginning of 2002, gold is up 441% while the S&P 500 is up 158%.

The point here is that, given how easy it is to print up paper gold contracts and flood the market, the price of gold can do anything on any given day. If you want to own gold for the reasons to own gold, you have be play the long game. The mining stocks do not seem to care about the day-to-day vagaries of the gold price right now. You shouldn’t either.

The trading pattern in gold is somewhat similar to its trading pattern in the summer of 2008, right before the great financial crisis (de facto banking system collapse) was set in motion.   The price of gold was taken down from $1020 in mid-March to $700 by October, while the financial system was melting down. That set up gold’s record run to $1900 over the next three years.

It’s becoming obvious to anyone who chooses to not put their head in the sand or become intoxicated with the copious amounts of official propaganda, that the U.S. Government is technically bankrupt and the financial bubbles fomented by a decade of money printing, credit creation and near-zero interest rates are about to explode.  It’s not coincidental that gold was slammed ahead of Congressional testimony by Fed-head Jerome Powell, one of the primary propaganda-spinning hand-puppets.

Gold started rolling downhill after the London a.m. fix. Right after it. The cliff-dive occurred as the Comex floor was opening. This is a pure paper operation. It’s either the hedge funds or the banks piling into the short-side of the market by flooding the market with paper gold and hitting all bids in sight. The managed money category of trader segment in the COT report has been getting net short and more net short the last two weeks. Hedge funds could be shorting even more paper gold, trying to push it further downhill to book profits on their shorts. OR it could be the banks piling into the short side but hide this by booking the trades they report to the CME (daily o/i) and the CFTC (weekly COT) into the managed money trader account in the COT report.

The latter is entirely possible. JP Morgan was already caught once doing this in silver. If you don’t trust the Government to report the truth, why would you trust the banks to report the truth? After all, the banks ARE the Government.

Today’s action has nothing to do with the $/yuan to gold relationship or the $/yen to gold relationship. The dollar is higher and gold usually trades inversely to the dollar. Gold likely is being managed like this to help disguise the coming financial and economic bombs that are set to explode – just like in 2008.

We’re dealing with a system in which banks and other big corporations control the Government and there is no RULE OF LAW whatsoever. Think about what you would do if you completely lacked a moral compass and were in control of the system, to a large degree. You would do exactly what they are doing. And I’m not talking about just gold. It’s everything. They have used debt to put the squeeze on the population.

WTF Just Happened? Gold: Buy While There’s Blood In The Street

Perhaps the best contrarian indicator for the directional movement of gold and silver is Dennis “Wrong Way” Gartman, who recently announced that he was dumping all of his gold “positions” (note:  Gartman’s “positions” are theoretical paper portfolio trades):

As for gold, we have clearly held on far, far, far too long to having owned gold…clearly we’ve been wrong to have erred bullishly of gold in any fashion whatsoever. We shall have no choice henceforth but to look upon any bounces that we get as opportunities into which to sell (The July 2, 2018 Gartman Letter, page 4).

This is true manna from heaven for precious metals investors. Dennis Gartman is one of the
best contrarian signals we have observed in over 35 years of involvement with investing and financial markets. He has a remarkable capacity to endure shame because he is almost
always wrong when he goes long or short any investment. His wrong-way calls are  becoming legendary.

But if this isn’t enough evidence that now is the time to start buying, reloading or adding to your favorite mining shares and buy more physical metal, in this episode of “WTF Just Happened?” we discuss several other market indicators that point toward a big move coming in the precious metals sector ((WTF Just Happened is a produced in association with Wall St. For Main Street – Eric Dubin may be reached at  Facebook.com/EricDubin):

****************************

I recommended Arizona Mining in May 2016 at  $1.26 to my Mining Stock Journal subscribers.  It was acquired today for $1.3 billion, or $4.65/share.  My subscribers and I are making a small fortune shorting homebuilders.

Visit these links to learn more about the Investment Research Dynamic’s  Mining Stock Journal and Short Seller’s Journal.   

Was Gold Actually “Dumped” Friday?

Sifting through Twitter, I came across a curious assertion posited as a reply to a post on “unemployment” on Steph Pomboy’s twitter feed (@spomboy).  The tweeter asked, “have you noticed that gold is being dumped?”  But was gold “dumped?”  Perhaps the tweeter should have qualified the question with the adjective, “paper,” in front of the word “gold.”

I replied rhetorically with, “is actual physical gold being dumped or is it Comex is it paper gold?” Let’s have a look. (click image to enlarge)

The Comex is a futures contract trading venue. While the Comex vault operators issue daily vault reports which allege the presence of 100 oz gold bars in custody, we have no idea if all of the bars are sitting physically in the vaults or whether or not there are any sort of encumbrances attached to any of them. Very few holders of gold contracts ever take delivery and very little actual physical gold moves in or out of the Comex vaults on a weekly/monthly/quarterly basis.  In short, the Comex is a paper gold trading exchange.

On Friday, after the primary physical bar trading markets – India and China – were closed for the weekend, large quantities of paper gold futures were suddenly being dumped into the CME’s Globex computer trading system, about 5 minutes before the Comex gold pit opened for the day (8:20 a.m. EST).  You can see the action narrated in the chart above.  It’s not uncommon for the price of gold to be smashed using paper gold on the Friday after an FOMC meeting, especially in the summer months when trading operations are likely only at half-staff and the rest of the world is gone for the weekend.

Over a 60 minute period from 8 a.m. – 9 a.m. EST, approximately 90,300 contracts were sold, largely indiscriminately hitting every bid in sight.   This is the equivalent of 9.03 million ozs of gold.  There’s only one problem with this:   as of Friday’s warehouse report, Comex vaults were reporting total gold stock of 9.01 million ozs – only 507,453 of which were listed as “available to be delivered.”  In other words, in just one hour, the total amount of gold allegedly held in Comex vaults was “dumped” in the form a paper derivatives.  Worse, the amount “dumped” was 17.7x the number of gold ozs currently available to deliver.

For the entire day, Globex + floor volume, 495,364 contracts were “dumped.”  This is 49,536,640 ozs of Comex paper gold.  Again, I ask the tweeter who posited that comment on twitter, was gold really “dumped” on Friday?

For those who monitor the daily gold flow into India and China, I will bet any amount of money that both of those markets will be aggressively buying more than their usual daily amount of physical gold in order to take advantage of the lower price.   Funny that Trump would enable the Chinese to buy cheap physical gold when he’s engaged in a rapidly escalating trade war with China…

Gold And Silver Are Extremely Undervalued

Patrick Vierra of Singapore Bullion invited me to discuss precious metals, the stock market and the fiat currency-fueled asset bubbles that will blow-up sooner or later.  I explain why investing in gold requires a long term perspective on investing and wealth preservation, why gold and mining stocks are extremely undervalued right now and why the world wants out of the U.S. dollar.

Singapore Bullion is Singapore-based bullion dealer and bullion storage facility with a wide-array of products and services – the podcast is ad-free:

01:37 Gold – A Long Term Perspective
08:14 Was 2015 the bottom for gold price?
13:14 Gold – One of the Best Performing Assets
14:45 Bullion vs Mining Stocks
17:10 Gold is very undervalued right now
19:20 The COMEX cycle that impacts the gold price
21:47 Silver will outperform gold
25:00 How overvalued are the stock markets
30:11 How every U.S pension funds will ‘blow up’
32:40 The ratio of paper to physical gold
35:01 Housing bubble rearing its head again
39:51 “Trump loves debt!”
41:09 Fed rate hike to prick the housing bubble?
45:25 The world wants out of the dollar

You can learn more about my research and stock idea newsletters here:

MINING STOCK JOURNAL                                     SHORT SELLER’S JOURNAL

The Mining Stock Journal is twice per month, every other Thursday evening. The Short Seller’s Journal is weekly, every Sunday evening. The last mining stock purchase recommendation (May 17th issue) is up 10.5% in the last five trading days. It’s going higher – a lot higher.  My Short Seller’s Journal subscribers have been raking in the profits in my homebuilder short ideas.

A Quiet Bull Market Move In The Mining Stocks

This analysis is an excerpt from the opening market commentary in my April 19th issue of the Mining Stock Journal.

I was looking at some charts with a colleague two weeks ago and was startled to discover that a very quiet bull move has begun in the miners. Like the move that began in late 2015, it seems that some of the junior miners per GDXJ have gotten the party going. As you can see in the chart above, GDXJ is up 12.8% since December 7, 2017. GDX is up 9.5% since March 1st. Some individual stocks are up quite a bit more than the indices: AEM up 18% since March 1st, EXK up 49.7% since Feb 9th, Bonterra up 25% since March 1st, etc.

The chart below is two weeks old but the bull pattern in GDX (and GDXJ, HUI, etc) has continued after a brief pullback (which in and of itself is bullish):

In my opinion, the charts in the sector are beginning to look quite bullish. I would like to see the Comex gold futures open interest drop 70-80k contracts – it was 499k as of Friday’s close. However, if a bigger move than has occurred already starts now, the big Comex banks will be forced to cover their large short position in gold futures. This will “turbo-charge” the move [in fact, per the latest COT report, the Comex banks continue to cover shorts and reduce their net short position and the hedge funds continue to dump longs and add to shorts – historically this shift in trader positioning has preceded big bull moves in gold/silver].

Silver is also starting to form a very bullish base:

Wholesale silver eagle premiums are creeping higher, as are retail premiums. Perhaps the big inventory overhang that had formed over the last year is starting to clear out. Also, silver mining stocks, especially the ones that actually produce and sell silver, have been quietly outperforming just about every stock sector (I have had a buy recommendation on a smaller silver producer since early October 2017 – the stock is up 20% since that buy recommendation (I own it) and it’s up 47% since it bottomed in December.

From a fundamental standpoint, given the deteriorating financial condition of the U.S. Government and the escalating rate of inflation and geopolitical risks, the planets are aligned for a big move in the precious metals sector.   If the banks continue to reduce their net short position in Comex paper gold – and concomitantly the hedge funds continue to reduce their net long position – then both the planets and the stars will be aligned for a move in the sector that I believe will take a lot of market observers and participants by surprise.

The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly (twice per month) newsletter that offers in-depth precious metals market commentary and, primarily, junior mining stock ideas.  My goal is to find the hidden “gems’ ahead of herd.  You can find out more here:  Mining Stock Journal information.

Wow great report…by the way I have cancelled most of my precious metal subscriptions except your’s…. You do a treat job for us! – from “Robert,” received last week

Are The Precious Metals Percolating For A Big Move?

Since the beginning of 2018, gold has been stuck in a trading range between $1310 and $1360.  Silver has ranged between $16.20 and $17.50, though primarily between $16.80 and $16.25 since February.   So what’s next?   While most analysts base their views largely on chart technicals, I have found – at least for me – the Commitment of Trader “tea leaves” is a more reliable forecasting tool.  Friday’s COT report showed a continuation of the trader positioning pattern that I believe will support the next big move higher.

Elijah Johnson and James Anderson invited me on to their weekly Metals and Markets podcast to discuss why I believe the metals may be bottoming.  In addition, we discuss the why Amazon.com and Tesla are horrifically overvalued:

**********************

CLICK ON IMAGE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT EACH NEWSLETTER: