Tag Archives: Comex

It Looks, Sounds And Smells Like A Gold Bull Market

Gold tends to perform the best when the real rate of interest (interest rates minus the real inflation rate) is negative. For now, the Central Banks have been able to contain the movement of gold in order to prevent the price from doing what it should be doing when interest rates are negative.

With that enormous amount of negative yielding debt globally, and Treasury yields in the U.S. heading south quickly, from a fundamental standpoint there’s a high probability we have started the next big move higher in gold. Silver will eventually “catch up” and begin to outperform gold. That said, get used to a higher level of price volatility in the precious metals sector. Keep a core position but sell rallies and buy sell-offs if you want to trade the volatility. Otherwise, sit tight and be right.

The Prepared Mind invited to its podcast to discuss a wide range of issues from precious metals to geopolitical problems. Here’s Part 2 (click to view Part 1):

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a miniumum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

A Predictable Gold Price Attack – Now What?

Today’s attack on gold and silver was one of the most predictable in my 18 years of involvement in the precious metals sector. On Wednesday just before the close of the NYSE, I loaded up at-the-money puts on NUGT that expire today. I sold them right after the open for home run trade. The sector has been grinding higher since the first hour of trading, which is bullish.

Trevor Hall and I discuss the recent move up in gold (and the new move below $1400), silver expectations, and the increasingly positive investor sentiment toward the junior mining sector. We also share a few stocks which we have likened over the first half of 2019 along with a few disappointments. You can listen to the discussion by clicking here: MINING STOCK DAILY  or on the graphic below:

The Mining Stock Journal  covers several mining stocks that I believe are extraordinarily undervalued relative to their upside potential. I also present opportunistic recommendations on select mid-tier and large-cap miners that should outperform their peers.  In response to subscriber requests, in the latest issue released Wednesday  I presented an initial opinion on Great Bear Resources. You can learn more about this newsletter here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

Gold: BOOM Goes The Dynamite

After dancing around the $1350 level (August futures basis) the price of gold launched in three stages after the FOMC circus was over on June 19th. The first move enabled gold to break above and hold the $1360 area of resistance that has been referenced ad nauseum for the last three years. Then, two “reverse flash crashes” later on Thursday and Friday that week, gold powered well above $1400 before a “flash crash” at the end of Friday’s trading pushed gold back below $1400 for the weekend. On Monday afternoon (June 24th) gold broke free from  the shackles of official price containment and sustained a move over $1400 and ran up to $1440.

As I expected, a combination of profit-taking by the hedge funds chasing momentum higher with paper gold and official efforts to push the price of gold lower triggered a sell-off that tested $1400 successfully. Gold closed out the week (August futures basis) at $1412.

While I was expecting a move like this at some point in response to the Fed reimplementing loose monetary policy, I thought that it wouldn’t happen until the Fed signaled that it would begin printing money again. It’s not clear to me if this move is being fueled by fundamentals and a flight to safety or if it’s hedge fund algos chasing price momentum. It’s likely a combination of both.

Independent of any economic disruption that may or may not be caused by the trade war, economic activity globally is deteriorating rapidly. Every country around the world recklessly printed money and piled up debt which artificially revived economic activity after the 2008 de facto systemic collapse. Mathematically the world can’t print money and issue debt ad infinitum. We may have hit the wall in that regard over the last 12 months. The trade war is being used as a convenient scapegoat. It’s like blaming the start of World War I on the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand…

I believe there’s no question that highly negative events are unfolding “behind the scenes” which are sucking liquidity out of the system. I believe these events will emerge in plain sight well before year-end. The yield curve inversions (Treasury, Eurodollar futures) are telling us there’s hidden explosives detonating that have been contained for now. I have no doubt that the troubles are connected to primarily to Deutsche Bank but also stem from the early stages of a subprime debt problem. The “secret” meeting held a couple weeks ago by Mnuchin and the Financial Stability Oversight Council concerning “alarms” in the junk bond market was a tell-tale as was the “bad bank” plan announced by Deutsche Bank, which was curiously devoid of any details on how it would be funded or what would go into it.

The systemic problems and geopolitical animosities percolating behind “the curtain” are not lost on those with an inside view of the action. I expect an aggressive attack on the gold price next week. The Fourth of July observance falls on Thursday, which means most Wall Street trading desks will be lightly staffed most of the week. Low-volume holiday periods are the favorite time for the bullion banks to stage a raid on gold. The success of this raid is crucial to maintaining the illusion that obvious systemic problems are manageable.

Any attempt to push the price of gold lower will be helped by the fact that official gold imports into India have stopped while the Indian public digests the recent surge in the price of gold. This is typical behavior by India after a sharp move higher in gold. Smuggling to avoid the import duty likely continues unabated. But the removal of India’s official bid from the physical gold market is a window of opportunity for the western gold price managers to make an effort to push bold back below $1400 using paper.

If any attempt to  manipulate gold back below $1400 fails in the next week or two, it means that unhealthy quantities of brown fecal matter are connecting with the fan blades – out of sight for now except for the signal coming from the gold.

Any sustained move higher in gold and silver will ignite a fire below the mining stocks, especially the historically undervalued juniors. My Mining Stock Journal covers several mining stocks that I believe are extraordinarily undervalued relative to their upside potential. I also present opportunistic recommendations on select mid-tier and large-cap miners that should outperform their peers. In response to subscriber requests, in the next issue released this upcoming week I’ll present an initial opinion on Great Bear Resources. You can learn more about this newsletter here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

Gold Is Going Higher – But Brace Yourself For Volatility

Short of a raid orchestrated by the central planners to fasten tighter the cap on gold (which remains a real possibility given the historical record), the yellow metal shouldn’t encounter much price resistance until above $1,500/oz.  – Adam Taggart, Peak Prosperity

I agree with the statement above from Adam Taggart but an aggressive price attack by the banks who operate the Comex is inevitable.  In fact, based on the big jump in gold contract open interest and the spike up in EFP/PNT transactions – Privately Negotiated Transactions /Exchange for Physicals – it’s likely the banks have been setting the trap for another massive open interest liquidation price control operation.

Let me explain.  The banks are unconstrained by the amount of paper contracts they print and feed into the market to supply the demand from the hedge funds, who are the primary buyers. By unconstrained, I mean that the amount of gold represented by paper derivative open interest is far greater than the amount of actual physical gold held in Comex vaults.  Gold and silver are the ONLY commodity contract products for which this disparity between open interest and underlying supply of the physical commodity is allowed to occur.

As an aside, if the Comex were a true price discovery market, the amount of gold/silver represented by the paper contracts would be tied closely to the amount of gold held in Comex vaults.  When hedge funds rush in to buy futures, the market makers would then be required to wait until an entity holding contracts was willing to sell. This is how a bona fide price discovery market functions using price to clear the market’s supply and demand.

Instead, with CME gold and silver contracts, the banks print up new paper contracts to satiate buying demand.

Last week when the price of gold began to spike higher in response the FOMC policy statement released on Wednesday, the price of gold began soar.  Between Wednesday and Friday, the open interest in gold contracts spiked up by over 50,000 contracts – nearly 10%. This amount of paper represents over 5 million ozs of gold. As of Friday, the Comex warehouse report shows just 322,910 ozs of gold available for delivery (“registered”) and 7.6 million total ozs of gold. But the total open interest is 572,000 contracts, or 57.2 million ozs of gold, nearly 8x the amount of total gold held in Comex vaults.

But wait, there’s more.  During periods of aggressive price control, the activity of PNT/EFP’s also soars.  These transactions avoid settlement in 100 oz Comex bars per basic contract terms. Instead, it’s way for the banks to “deliver” under the terms of the Comex contract without producing and delivering the actual physical bar, recording the serial number on the bar under the receiving party’s name and moving the bar into an allocated account. It’s an extension of the fractional bullion system that is used to manipulate the gold price. It allows the banks to deliver phantom gold in lieu of delivering real bars.

On Tuesday the PNT/EFP volume was 8k and 5.9k respectively. On Wednesday the volume was 11.5k and 9.1k. On Thursday, when gold was soaring over $1400, the volume in PNT/EFP’s was  30k and 22k respectively.  On Friday the volume was 21k and 11.3.

On average, the daily volume of these two transactions is typically under 10k – except when the banks are aggressively implementing price management operations.

The banks use these transactions, along with feeding tens of thousands of newly printed gold contracts to the hedge funds. This drives up the open interest.  On Friday, May 31st, the open interest in Comex gold was 465k contracts.  The current open interest of 572k is approaching the level at which the price of gold was attacked on the Comex in each of the last three years.

The process is set up by letting the hedge fund algos chase the price higher and accumulate an excessively large net long position in gold contracts,  At the same time, the banks feed contracts into the buying frenzy and accumulate an offsetting net short position.  As the operation cycles through, the banks force the price lower by attacking the stop-loss levels set by the hedge funds as they chase the price higher.  The banks use the concomitant hedge fund selling to cover their shorts, thereby reaping enormous profits.

In September 2016, gold ran higher during the summer and the open interest had reached close to 600k. The price gold was dropped from $1200 to $1070.  In September 2017, the gold contract o/i reached over 580k and gold subsequently was taken down from the high $1300’s to $1125.  Then, in January 2018, the open interest once again was over 580k contract and the gold price was taken down from $1350 to $1200.

In all three price control cycles, the open interest fell below 500k as the banks unloaded long positions and the banks covered their shorts.

This is a long-winded way of explaining why I believe that sometime in the next 10 trading days  the market should expect an aggressive attempt by the banks to attack the gold price on the Comex – and to some degree on the LBMA.  We’ll know I’m right if we get a series of “fishing line” price drops sometime between now and the July 4th holiday. Fridays and pre-holiday trading days, when volume is light, is a favorite time for the banks to begin taking down the gold price.

The good news is, if you follow the sequence I described above from 2016 to now, the price of gold is establishing a series of higher highs and higher lows.  This tells us that the western Central Bank/bullion bank effort to control the price of gold is limited in its success.  This is likely because of immense demand from eastern hemisphere buyers (Central Banks, investors, citizens) who require actual physical delivery.

Furthermore, if I’m wrong about an imminent price attack to take the price of gold lower, it means that the Central Banks/bullion banks have lost control of the market – at least for the time being – and the market is experiencing Bill “Midas” Murphy’s “commercial signal failure.”  If this turns out to be the case, and it is ultimately an inevitability, strap in for some fun if you own physical gold, silver and mining stocks.

Can Western Central Banks Continue Capping Gold At $1350?

“Shanghai Gold will change the current gold market with its ‘consumed in the East but priced in the West’ arrangement. When China has the right to speak in the international gold market, the true price of gold will be revealed.” – Xu Luode, Chairman, Shanghai Gold Exchange, 15 May 2014

The price of gold has jumped 5.8% in a little over 3 weeks. This is a big move in a short period of time for any asset. Two factors fueled the move. The first is the expectation that Central Banks globally will revert back to money printing and negative interest rate policies to address a collapsing global economy. The second factor, more technical in nature, pushing gold higher is hedge funds chasing the upward price-momentum in the Comex and LBMA paper gold markets.

The gold price was smashed in the paper gold market on Friday right as the stock market opened. 9,816 Comex paper gold contracts representing nearly 1 million ozs of gold were thrown onto the Comex in a five minute period. This is more than 3 times the amount of gold designated in Comex warehouses as available for delivery and 28% more than the total amount of gold held in Comex vaults per Friday’s Comex warehouse report.

Judging from the latest Commitment of Traders Report, which shows the Comex bank net short position growing rapidly, there’s no question that Friday’s activity was an act of price control. Furthermore, it’s common for the price of gold to be heavily managed on summer Fridays after the physical gold buyers in the eastern hemisphere have retired for the weekend. The motivation this Friday is the fact that the gold price had popped over $1350 on Thursday night. For now $1350 has been the price at which price containment activities are readily implemented.

The price of gold is most heavily controlled just before, during and after the FOMC meeting. The next meeting begins tomorrow and culminates with the FOMC policy statement to be released just after 2 p.m. EST. The event has become the caricature of a society that takes official policy implementation seriously. This includes the journalistic and analytic transmission of the event, which is literally a Barnum and Bailey production.

It seems the number one policy goal of the Fed and the Trump Administration is to keep the stock market from collapsing. But the Fed has very few rate cut “bullets” in its chamber to help accomplish this policy directive. Moreover, a study completed by the Center for Financial Research and Analysis showed that the S&P 500 Index fell 12.4% in the first six months after cuts started in 2007. The drop broke a post-World War II record decline of 9.5% set in 2001, when the Fed’s previous series of rate reductions got under way. Declines in the S&P 500 also followed moves toward lower rates that began in 1960, 1968 and 1981.

This suggests to me that the Fed will have to start printing more money. The only question  is with regard to the timing.  Judging from the steady stream of negative economic reports – a record drop in the NY Fed’s regional economic activity index released today, for instance – it’s quite possible the printing press will be fired up before year-end.

The rapid price rise in gold from $700 to $1900 between late 2008 and September 2011 was powered by global Central Bank money printing and big bank bailouts. We know money printing is on the horizon. But so are bank bailouts – again. The curious and highly opaque announcement that Deutsche Bank was going to create a “bad bank” for its distressed assets, which are losing half a billion dollars annually, suggests that the German Government and/or ECB is prepared to monetize DB’s bad assets while enabling the bank’s basic banking and money management business survive on its own.

This is just the beginning of what will eventually turn out to be a period of epic money printing and systemic bailouts by Central Banks in conjunction with their sovereign lap-dogs. Only this time the scale of the operation will dwarf the monetization program that began in 2008. The price of gold more than doubled with ease the first time around. In my mind there’s no question that the $1350 official price-cap will fail. At that point its anyone’s guess how high the price will move in U.S. dollars. But the price of gold is already breaking out in several currencies other than the dollar.

Gold, Silver And The Mining Stocks Are Showing Signs Of Life

“Shanghai Gold will change the current gold market with its ‘consumed in the East but priced in the West’ arrangement. When China has the right to speak in the international gold market, the true price of gold will be revealed.” – Xu Luode, Chairman, Shanghai Gold Exchange, 15 May 2014

The quote above is for the benefit of anyone who refuses to acknowledge or accpet that the price of gold is manipulated by western Central Banks, led by the BIS, using the paper gold derivatives traded on the LBMA and the Comex as well as using “structured notes” in the OTC derivatives market. Those who assert that the precious metals market is not manipulated do so from a position of either complicity or ignorance.

The price of gold began spiking higher on Thursday, May 30th. Over that time period the front-month futures contract (August) has run from $1280 to $1340. I believe this is being driven primarily by the market’s perception – in response the steeply inverted Treasury and Eurodollar futures curves – that a significant problem or problems is/are occurring in the global financial system.

The idea for this chart came from a  chart I saw posted by @StockBoardAsset (he had it labeled “Gold/Silver”). The chart shows the XAU index since inception to the present on a monthly basis. I also edited the labels and added the British pound crisis label.

I like it because it shows why it’s highly probable that the precious metals and mining stocks – especially the mining stocks – are near the bottom of a long-term trading pattern that goes back 35 years. The low end happens to correlate with a period in which the stock market was at or near a top followed by a significant sell-off in stocks.

If I spent the time to create a chart showing the SPX to XAU ratio, it would look somewhat like the inverse of the chart above. I’m encouraged by the move in gold and silver over the last week. At some point there will be a pullback/ consolidation of the sharp price-rise. But if you study the chart above, it would appear that the mining stocks have the potential to make a big move in the 2nd half of 2019 and that move may be starting.

One of the “tells” which indicate the fundamental underpinnings are in place for a big move in the sector is the escalation in the frequency and intensity of price manipulation on the Comex.  The banks have been significantly enlarging their net short position in gold contracts plus the volume of PNT and EFP transactions (Privately Negotiated Trades and Exchange For Physicals) has increased substantially over the last couple of weeks. There’s a high correlation between the volume of PNT/EFP transactions and the price-capping efforts exuded by the Comex price-action.

Note: PNT/EFPs are a way for the banks to “deliver” under the terms of the Comex contract without producing and delivering an actual physical Comex bar, recording the serial number on the bar under the receiving party’s name and moving the bar into an allocated account. It’s an extension of the fractional bullion system that is used to manipulate the gold price. It allows the banks to deliver phantom gold in lieu of delivering real bars.

Gold And Silver May Be Setting Up For A Big Move

The price of gold soared over $13 Monday as flight-to-safety money flowed into the precious metals sector while the stock market went into a downward spiral. I see Monday’s market action as a preview of what’s in store going forward as price discovery once again engulfs the stock market and causes the most extreme stock bubble in U.S. history to deflate.

Despite the fact that it seems to be taking forever for gold and silver to enter into a prolonged move higher, the chart below should offer encouragement.

Gold, silver and mining stocks are deeply oversold technically. It’s  obvious that the western Central Banks are throwing everything they can at the gold price via the paper derivative gold markets in London and NYC in an attempt to prevent a massive move higher.  The data for gold and silver futures on the Comex show that the banks are working hard to stunt any rally by unloading loads of paper gold on the market.

This effort is rewarding the large physical gold importing countries in the east. India’s net import of gold jumped by 27 per cent to 192.4 tonnes in the first quarter of calendar year 2019 from 151 tonnes in the same period last year. In April India unofficially imported 121 tonnes of gold, up significantly from April 2018. The increase in import activity is attributable to the lower gold price. Note that the official statistics do not include smuggled gold, which is thought to average around 25 tonnes per month. China also has stepped up its gold buying over the last several weeks.

At some point the Fed is going to be forced by the market to cut the Fed Funds rate, as the 1yr Treasury is now yielding less that the Fed Funds target rate. In addition, the yield curve is inverted from 1yr out to 7yrs, with a steep inversion between the 1yr and 3yr Treasurys. It won’t take much flinching from the Fed to ignite a rally in the metals. In addition, the investor sentiment as measured by MarketVane is about as low as I’ve seen it in a long time (34% bullish for both gold and silver).

Despite the 600 pt sell-off in the Dow today, complacency persists, along with an expectation that the Fed will continue to support wanton speculation in the stock market.  But the inverted yield curve, combined with an effective Fed Funds rate that is above the interest rate used to calculate the quantity of free money given by the Fed to the banks on excess reserves, is strong evidence that the Fed is losing its ability to control the financial markets.  At some point the Fed and its western Central Bank collaborators, led by the BIS, will also lose control of the gold price.

Global Synchronized Depression: Buy Gold And Silver Not Copper

It’s not “different this time.” The steep, prolonged yield curve inversion reflects the onset of a deep global economic contraction which is now being confirmed by leading indicators such as semiconductor and auto sales.  At some point the Fed is going to be forced by the market to cut the Fed Funds rate, as the 1yr Treasury is now yielding less than the Fed  Funds target rate. In addition, the yield curve is inverted from 1yr out to 7yrs, with a steep inversion between the 1yr and 3yr Treasurys.  It won’t take much flinching from the Fed to ignite a rally in the metals.  In addition, the investor sentiment as measured by MarketVane is about as low as I’ve seen it in a long time (34% bullish for both gold and silver).

We are headed into a severe global recession with or w/out a trade agreement. To be sure, over the next 10-20 years, it’s likely the price of copper will move higher. But if my view plays out, a severe recession will cause a sharp drop in the demand for copper and other base metals relative to the demand over the last 10-15 years. This in turn will push out the current supply/demand forecasts for copper by several years and drive the price of copper lower.

Trevor Hall and I discuss the global economy, the intense western Central Bank gold price manipulation activity and the factors that will drive the price of real money – gold and silver – higher and commodities like copper lower in our latest Mining Stock Daily podcast – click here or on the graphic below:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a miniumum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

The Historical Stock Bubble And Undervalued Gold And Silver

When the hedge fund algos inevitably turn the other way and unload stocks, a meaningful amount of the capital that leaves the stock market will likely rush into gold and silver.  The record hedge fund net short position on the Comex will add fuel to the move in gold/silver.

James Anderson of Silver Doctors/SD Bullion invited me to discuss the largest stock bubble in U.S. history and why gold is extremely undervalued relative to the U.S. dollar.  (Note:  at the 20:44 mark I reference China’s foreign reserves to be $1.2 trillion. This is the dollar amount of China’s reserves; China’s total foreign reserve is $3 trillion).

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a miniumum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Hedge Funds Record Net Short Paper Gold

The latest commitment of traders report (COT report) showed that the hedge funds on the Comex (the “managed money” account) is now net short 33.9k contract of paper gold.  This is a record net short position in paper gold for the managed money account on the Comex.  The previous all-time high was 27.2k contracts at the end of December 2015.

This explains a lot to me about the character of the price decline in gold since early April. Just like in the stock market, the large macro “quant” funds use computer algorithms to momentum trade Comex futures. It’s this factor that caused the price of gold to drop quickly once it went below its 50 dma on April 12th. The shift to a net short positioned reflects hedge fund computers unloading long positions and piling into the short side.

At some point this dynamic will go the other way and, at the very least, there will be a significant short-covering rally as the hedge fund positioning swings back the other way. This will really get interesting if the hedge fund algo move to cover  shorts on the Comex at the same time the stock market heads south again. This would  stimulate a hedge fund algo party that could finally send gold over $1400.

The Mining Stock Journal focuses on junior exploration mining stock ideas and, on a selective basis, larger-cap producing mining stocks. You can learn more about this newsletter here:  Mining Stock Journal information