Tag Archives: fake news

Paul Craig Roberts: Without Truth, Government Becomes Totalitarian

“THE conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.” – Edward Bernays, the Godfather of Propaganda

It’s stunning to me the number of highly educated people I know who are blinded by the Orwellian fog that now engulfs the United States. Even if the Russian election meddling accusations were true, and there’s not been one shred of court-admissible evidence produced yet, so what? The U.S. interferes in elections and governments all over the world, including Russia. Thus is the power of propaganda. It’s difficult to know what’s real and what’s fiction because the accepted purveyors of “truth” and “news” have been captured by the political and corporate elitists, who use the traditional media outlets to advance their political and economic objectives.

“Today in America no member of the print and TV media or NPR dares to get within a hundred miles of the truth. It would be a career-ending event. Without a media dedicated to truth, there can be no control over government.” – Paul Craig Roberts. The following essay is a must-read from Paul Craig Roberts

On September 17, I posted my column, “Evidence is no longer a Western value.” I used as an example the blame that has been put on Russia for the shot down Malaysian airliner. No evidence whatsoever exists for the accusation, and massive evidence has been presented that the airliner was shot down by the neonazis that seized power as a result of the Washington-organized coup in Ukraine.

Blame was fixed on Russia not by any evidence but by continuous evidence-free accusations that began the moment the airliner was shot down. Anyone who asked for evidence was treated as a “Putin apologist.” This took evidence out of the picture.

Wherever we look in these times, we see evidence-free accusations established as absolute facts: Saddam Hussein’s “weapons of mass destruction,” “Iranian nukes,” “Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the Trump/Putin conspiracy that stole the 2016 US presidential election, Syrian use of poison gas. Not a scrap of evidence exists for any of these accusations, but the truth of the accusations is established in many minds worldwide.

Science gave the world the principle of evidence-based fact, which did away with the burning of witches and political decisions based in superstitution. Truth became a force.

But truth can get in the way of agendas, and as elites recovered their power from the social, political, and economic reforms of a previous era, truth was divided into categories and cut so fine that it disappeared. For the elite truth became identical to their economic interests, and Identity Politics stripped truth of its universal meaning and reduced truth to self-pleading race and gender truth.

The result is that today truth is established not by evidence but by repetition of accusations and falsehoods.

This made it easy to destroy people and countries by lies alone. Who remembers Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund and at the time the likely future president of France? Strauss-Kahn was out of step with Washington which wanted its puppet Sarkozy reelected. Strauss-Kahn came to New York and was accused by a hotel maid of sexual assault. He was arrested and jailed. The New York district attorney and media whores pronounced him guillty. Simultaneously, on cue, a French woman made the same claim. Case closed. No evidence. Just claims. Then it emerged that the hotel maid had just had very large sums of money far above her income level deposited to her bank account. Even more damning, it was revealed that Sarkozy knew of Strauss-Kahn’s arrest before the police announced it. The case fell apart, and the New York district attorney publicly apologized. But Strauss-Kahn had been forced to resign as Director of the IMF and was out of the French presidential election. So Washington won.

Today it is a common, routine tactic for both US political parties to produce a woman to bring accusations of sexual harassment, abuse, or assault against any heterosexual male appointee or nominee that either party regards to be out of step with its agenda. It happens so regularly that no sentinent person can possibly believe the woman. Sexual assault has been reduced to one of the dirty tricks of politics.

As hard as false accusations can be on individuals, they destroy entire countries. Just consider the destruction of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, currently Yemen, and Washington has not given up on the same fate for Syria and Iran. Based on nothing but Washington’s endlessly repeated false accusations, millions of peoples have been murdered, maimed, orphened, widowed, displaced, and sent as refugees overrunning Europe.

There is not a scrap of evidence anywhere that justifies Washington’s enormous crimes against humanity. Yet, these crimes that in a truth-conscious world would have resulted in several entire governments of the United States standing accused in the International Criminal Court, or the War Crimes Court, or whichever court, and perhaps in all of them, are ignored, because accusation alone against the destroyed countries and peoples sufficed to justify Washington’s war crimes against humanity.

What I have described is a truth-free world. There is no place for truth in the world that the West has created. The Western hostility to truth is overwhelming. As I write truth-tellers are being banned from Facebook, Twitter, and PayPal. Google makes their sites almost impossible to find. Throughout the Western World truth has been redefined as “Conspiracy Theory.”

Elites such as George Soros and innumerable tax-financed government agencies, such as the National Endowment for Democracy, spend taxpayers’ money discrediting those who tell the truth. Many in governments want truth-tellers locked up as enemies of the state, by which they mean “enemies of the self-interests of the ruling elites.”

You don’t need to believe me. Here are four books written by honorable persons, meticulously documented, full of evidence that make it clear that American elites have no respect whatsoever for truth. Truth is something that is in their way.

One of the books is Charlie Savage’s Takeover. Savage shows how Dick Cheney used the George W. Bush regime and 9/11 to destroy the separation of powers and the civil liberties in the US Constitution. When you read Savage’s book you will discover that the America that you think is here is not here. In its place is a dictatorship available to any president clever enough to use it. Savage’s book is one of the best pieces of investigative reporting that I have read.

The Roman system of government never recovered from Caesar crossing the Rubicon. I doubt that the US Constitution will ever recover from Dick Cheney.

Two of the books are by David Ray Griffin, one of the last and most determined of American protagonists for truth. In his book, Bush and Cheney: How They Ruined America and the World, Griffin makes, a decade after Savage, the same case against Dick Cheney. When two independently minded researchers reach the same conclusion, you can bet it is on the money. If the world survives Washington’s orchestrated conflict with Russia, Cheney will go down in history as the person who destroyed American constitutional government.

In this same book, Griffin also examines the official 9/11 story and exposes it as a total fabrication with no connection to any truth whatsoever. He takes up this case in his current, just released book with Elizabeth Woodworth, 9/11 Unmasked: An International Review Panel Investigation.

Anyone who is still brainwashed by the official 9/11 story can immediately free themselves from their deception by reading this book. There is no longer any doubt that 9/11 was an inside orchestrated event for the purpose of unleashing two decades, with more to come, of American aggression in the Middle East.

Griffin does not leave a single official statement about 9/11 standing as not a single official claim is based on any factual evidence whatsoever.

For seventeen years the world has been fed a pack of total lies based on nothing but accusations and in the face of massive evidence produced not by some collection of political hacks sitting as a 9/11 Commission, but by thousands of experts. Yet for seventeen years false accusations prevailed over heavily documented facts presented by disinterested experts called “conspiracy theorists” by those intent on covering up their crimes.

The fourth book is Mary Mapes’ Truth and Duty. Mary Mapes is the CBS producer whose team carefully prepared for Dan Rather the 60 Minutes report on George W. Bush’s failure to perform his Texas Air National Guard duty. Her story was absolutely correct, but she and Rather were destroyed by accusation alone. The Republicans set in attack mode the right-wing bloggers, and soon the official media joined in for the purpose of elevating their ratings at CBS’s expense.

CBS was vulnerable, because it was no longer independent but a part of Viacom’s empire. Mapes was already in trouble, because she had broken the Abu Ghraib torture story just at the moment that Bush and Cheney declared: “America doesn’t torture.” As the Cheney/Bush regime put pressure on Viacom, a corporate executive told Mapes: “You don’t have any idea how many millions of dollars Viacom is spending on lobbying in Wasington, and nothing you’ve done in the past year has helped.”

There you have it. The Viacom executives had no interest whatsoever in the truth, only in what advanced their lobbying interests in Washington. Mapes, a truth-teller had to go, and she did. And so did Dan Rather.

Ask yourselves where you can read articles like this. If you do not support the remaining portals of truth, you will find yourselves bound, like the Elven-kings, Dwarf-lords and Mortal Men in J.R.R. Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, “in the darkness” by the elites ability to control the explanations that comprise your reality.

Elon Musk Turns U.S. Capital Markets Into A Complete Farce

“Nobody, when they’re looking at a privatization, dangles this way and does this sort of teasing dance of choreography. Somebody only does this when they are trying to distract us with a shiny new thing…There’s a lot of problems here. He can’t afford to build the new factory that he says he wants to build. This is a distracting strategy like attacking the press” – Jeffery Sonnenfeld, Yale School of Management on CNBC

Elon Musk has turned the U.S. capital markets into a complete farce. He’s made of mockery of the fact that the regulators no longer enforce rule of law. The idea that any financial institution on earth would fund the largest leveraged buyout in history at a level that values Tesla on par with Volkswagen – the world’s larges car manufacturer – is beyond absurd.

We should hope and pray that some truth-seeking entity will hold Musk accountable for what is likely a highly fraudulent claim. Or, then again, perhaps Musk took one of his flying automobiles and went to Mars on Monday to “secure funding” from his Martian financiers.

A careful dissection of Tesla’s latest 10-Q reveals a Company with negative working capital and an unmanageable level of debt and other fixed commitments headed for eventual insolvency.

Beyond ranting about the obvious here, I’m posting an insightful, if not poignant, comment from a friend and colleague:

I am pretty amazed/disgusted that we haven’t come to terms (as a society) with social media. It is in this grey area where leaders of Government and corporations can walk a tight rope of truth/fiction without any consequence or regard for the affect of the immorality and illegality.  Narcissistic psychopaths like Musk utilize cult of personality to harness the power of the hopelessly ignorant looking for a guru; looking for a reason to justify their worst impulses and implausible fantasies. From a social science standpoint: it is interesting. From a person of the society: it is mindblowingly frightening.

Was Gold Actually “Dumped” Friday?

Sifting through Twitter, I came across a curious assertion posited as a reply to a post on “unemployment” on Steph Pomboy’s twitter feed (@spomboy).  The tweeter asked, “have you noticed that gold is being dumped?”  But was gold “dumped?”  Perhaps the tweeter should have qualified the question with the adjective, “paper,” in front of the word “gold.”

I replied rhetorically with, “is actual physical gold being dumped or is it Comex is it paper gold?” Let’s have a look. (click image to enlarge)

The Comex is a futures contract trading venue. While the Comex vault operators issue daily vault reports which allege the presence of 100 oz gold bars in custody, we have no idea if all of the bars are sitting physically in the vaults or whether or not there are any sort of encumbrances attached to any of them. Very few holders of gold contracts ever take delivery and very little actual physical gold moves in or out of the Comex vaults on a weekly/monthly/quarterly basis.  In short, the Comex is a paper gold trading exchange.

On Friday, after the primary physical bar trading markets – India and China – were closed for the weekend, large quantities of paper gold futures were suddenly being dumped into the CME’s Globex computer trading system, about 5 minutes before the Comex gold pit opened for the day (8:20 a.m. EST).  You can see the action narrated in the chart above.  It’s not uncommon for the price of gold to be smashed using paper gold on the Friday after an FOMC meeting, especially in the summer months when trading operations are likely only at half-staff and the rest of the world is gone for the weekend.

Over a 60 minute period from 8 a.m. – 9 a.m. EST, approximately 90,300 contracts were sold, largely indiscriminately hitting every bid in sight.   This is the equivalent of 9.03 million ozs of gold.  There’s only one problem with this:   as of Friday’s warehouse report, Comex vaults were reporting total gold stock of 9.01 million ozs – only 507,453 of which were listed as “available to be delivered.”  In other words, in just one hour, the total amount of gold allegedly held in Comex vaults was “dumped” in the form a paper derivatives.  Worse, the amount “dumped” was 17.7x the number of gold ozs currently available to deliver.

For the entire day, Globex + floor volume, 495,364 contracts were “dumped.”  This is 49,536,640 ozs of Comex paper gold.  Again, I ask the tweeter who posited that comment on twitter, was gold really “dumped” on Friday?

For those who monitor the daily gold flow into India and China, I will bet any amount of money that both of those markets will be aggressively buying more than their usual daily amount of physical gold in order to take advantage of the lower price.   Funny that Trump would enable the Chinese to buy cheap physical gold when he’s engaged in a rapidly escalating trade war with China…

Retail Sales: Inflation Plus Extrapolation

The footnotes are the most interesting section of every financial and economic reports.  They also happens to be least studied section of these reports.  Those who prepare these reports rely on this fact.

The monthly headline retail sales is based to a large extent on estimates, guesswork, invalid assumptions and statistical magic.  Examine the line-item details in this retail sales report link. Note the numerous lines for the May “estimate” that contain “(*).” Then scroll down to the footnotes.

“(*)” indicates, per the footnotes, that “advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.” Footnote 3 further explains that “Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small number of firms…”.   In other words, a significant percentage of the retail sales are based on guesswork and inference.

Scroll further down the retail sales report and Table 2 shows the summary table (Table 2) which presents the month to month percentage change comparison for the latest month’s report.  The data in first four lines in this table is the data used for the headline reports.

Everyone uses these numbers, most without any knowledge whatsoever about the degree to which the data “behind” the numbers is comprised of highly questionable guesswork and unsubstantiated, if not entirely problematic, statistical inference and  adjustment calculus.

Additionally,  there’s a section in the report that explains methodology for the guesswork.  “Advance estimates are computed using a link relative estimator.”  A “link relative estimator” is a polite descriptor that basically means, “we assume that the historical growth rates implied by our historical reports can be applied to growth rate we assume in  this month from the previous month.”  On top of all of that, the Census Bureau then applies its nefarious “seasonal adjustment” factors to the data.  Keep in mind that a significant portion of the data is pulled out their ass.

All of this methodology is explained in further detail in the tabs on the main Monthly Retail Trade page of the Census Bureau. The information spread out in this section substantiates every assertion I have put forth above. It requires sifting through the “how data are collected,” “definitions” and “FAQs.”  I’m probably one of the few analysts curious enough to subject myself to this brain damage.

By the Census Bureau’s own trumped up numbers, most of the “gain” in retail sales from April to May, if indeed a bona fide gain occurred, was from gasoline and clothing inflation.   The numbers in the report are expressed in nominal terms.  They are not adjusted for the effects of price inflation.  Removing the effect of price inflation would yield the change in “unit” volume of retail sales.  This would be the number of true interest.

Finally, the estimated change in retail sales is not consistent with the patterns in consumer credit.  Based on the Fed’s consumer credit report, the use of revolving credit (credit cards, checking overdraft accounts, etc) has been contracting.  With the savings rate at an all-time low, the only way that retail sales unit volume could possibly increase is through the use of credit.  Thus, while guesswork and inflation is driving today’s headline report, in all likelihood unit volume of sales declined.  This latter assertion is indeed supported by recent manufacturing, factor order, durable goods and wage growth data.

U.S. Labor Market Reports: Someone Is Lying

The propaganda laced with bold lies is enveloping the media. The JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover)  released today alleges that the number of job openings in April hit a record.   Of course, the April number was based on large revisions to previous data.  The number reported is also “seasonally adjusted” and predicated on statistical inferences.   In fact, 6.7 million allegedly vacant jobs is not only an all-time high but it also exceeds the number of “unemployed” in the Government’s monthly employment “report.”

How do we know both the reported job vacancies and unemployed are an outright fabrication?  Because wages would be soaring.  It’s simple supply/demand economics.  According to the Government, the demand for employees far exceeds the supply of workers.  But if this were case, the price of workers would be rising quickly.  It’s not.

Last Friday the Government reported Friday morning that the economy added 223,000 jobs, exceeding the Wall St. estimate of 190k. I go from general indifference to outright disgust with the payroll report. But Friday’s report was jaw-dropping horrification. Early Monday before the report hit the tape, Trump – who was briefed on the numbers Thursday evening – tweeted that he was “looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 a.m.” I assumed the day before that the report would be rigged, but that confirmed it.

Here’s the problem with the 3.8% narrative: a “tight” labor market at theoretic “full employment is not confirmed by the “price of labor” – i.e. wages.

A 4% unemployment rate is considered “full employment.” The alleged unemployment rate has been running at 4% or lower for several months. But this story-line is not confirmed by wage growth. If the economy were at full employment accompanied by a “tight labor market,” wages should be soaring. Not only is wage growth dropping toward zero, it’s lower than the average wage growth shown in the chart going back to 1998.

The numbers and narrative as presented by the Government are simply not credible. The BLS statisticians removed another 170k from the labor force. The number of working age people not counted as part of the labor rose to 95.92 million – an all-time high. The labor force participation rate is 62.7%. Outside of Sept 2015-November 2015, this is the lowest level for the labor force participation rate since February 1978. Back then most families had one wage-earner per household.

Additionally, there are 102 total working age people who are either unemployed (6.1 million) or “not in labor force” (95.9 million). That’s 31.3% of the total U.S. population (Census Bureau: 2017 U.S. population 325.7 million). Of the 155 million people reported to be employed, 27 million are part-time. This means 39.2% of the total U.S. population works full-time, assuming that number is remotely accurate. Good luck to the Government keeping the Social Security Trust funded…

As for the most glaringly fraudulent aspect of the report, the BLS reports that “retail trade” was the 2nd largest producer of jobs in May. How is that heavenly possible? Retail sales are sagging and serial bankruptcies in brick/mortar retailing are dumping retail labor onto the market. There are other glaring inconsistencies with economic reality on Main Street. One number, however, that might be realistic: Health care/social assistance is credited with providing 31.7k new jobs. That is possible because the category is primarily Government jobs.

One last point. The birth/death model – which is reported before seasonal adjustments – is credited with throwing in 215,000 jobs into the total pool, which is then statistically “adjusted.” The BLS statistical sausage grinder spit out 223k jobs, of which the Birth/Death model contributed the majority on a non-adjusted basis. It’s just not a credible statistic. As we know, the Govt uses the birth/death “model” as a “plug” to create jobs that exist only on paper.

The chart above is the employment-population ratio. It shows the number of people “employed” as a ratio of the total working-age population. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the current employment-population ratio is the lowest going back to 1985. The ratio appears currently to be peaking. As it turns out, the four previous peaks in this ratio were followed by an economic/financial crisis and a severe stock market sell-off. My guess is that you will not see this graphic presented on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg or any of the other mainstream financial media outlets.

Is War By Proxy With Russia Inevitable?

The U.K. refuses to release for independent examination any of the evidence that would link the Skirpal poisoning to Russia.  As such, we can only assume that Russia was meant to be the scapegoat.  Same deal with the chemical attack in Syria.   There’s a complete lack of evidence that would connect the incident to any specific perpetrator.  But the U.S. seems satisfied that a case built on no-evidence hear-say and western media headlines proves the allegations.

Amazingly, some of neo-cons at Fox News are now questioning the legitimacy and motives for U.S. belligerence toward Russia using Syria as the “host.” Tucker Carlson went nuts on the idea, which is surprising because Fox typically is pro-war against anyone and anything without bona fide cause and for any reason:

Perhaps of more concern is the analysis presented by Paul Craig Roberts, who has a little more experience in DC politics and Government policy advisement than anyone in the cable media:

No sign this morning of Washington coming to its senses. Zero Hedge reports that Trump is canceling his trip to Peru’s Summit of the Americas in order to oversee the US attack on Syria. If the attack is real and not merely a hit at an unimportant target for PR effect, war could be upon us…”War With Russia Approaching” and “On The Threshold Of War.”

Let’s hope saner minds somehow prevail in DC, though I’m not sure where those brain cells might reside. With a debt-riddled and a larger “explosion” than the one that hit in 2008 percolating throughout the U.S. financial system, it seems that Washington’s policy alternative of choice is, “when all else fails, start a war.”

The insane intra-day and inter-day volatility in the stock market is the primary signal that the system is spinning out of control.  The “trade war” narrative is strictly cosmetic.  The market turmoil reflects the conflict between the extreme inert overvaluation of financial assets and the money sloshing around in the hands of perma-bullish traders who never experienced a market collapse.  The drum-beat of war – trade and military – is meant to deflect the public’s attention from the underlying economic reality.

I would suggest that this is why gold is moving higher despite the overt effort by the Fed/banks to suppress the price and  the overwhelming negative investor sentiment toward gold.

Paul Craig Roberts: Make Believe America

Americans live a never-never-land existance. The politicians and presstitutes make sure of that.

Consider something as simple as the unemployment rate. The US is said to have full employment with a January 2018 unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, down from 9.8 percent in January 2010 – BLS Statistics.

However, the low rate of unemployment is contradicted by the long-term decline in the labor force participation rate. After a long rise during the Reagan 1980s, the labor force participation rate peaked in January 1990 at 66.8 percent, more or less holding to that rate for another decade until 2001 when decline set in accelerating in September 2008.

Today the labor force participation rate is the lowest since February 1978, reversing all of the gains of the Reagan years.

Allegedly, the current unemployment rate of 4.1 percent is the result of the long recovery that allegedly began in June 2009. However, normally, employment opportunities created by economic recovery cause an increase in the labor force participation rate as people join the work force to take advantage of employment opportunities. A fall in the participation rate is associated with recession or stagnation, not with economic recovery.

How can this contradiction be reconciled? The answer lies in the measurement of unemployment. If you have not looked for a job in the last four weeks, you are not counted as being unemployed, because you are not counted as being part of the work force. When there are no jobs to be found, job seekers become discouraged and cease looking for jobs. In other words, the 4.1 percent unemployment rate does not count discouraged workers who cannot find jobs.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has a second measure of unemployment that includes workers who have been discouraged and out of the labor force for less than one year. This rate of unemployment is 8.2 percent, double the 4.1 percent reported rate.

The US government no longer tracks unemployment among discouraged workers who have been out of the work force for more than one year. However, John Williams of shadowstats.com continues to estimate this rate and places it at 22 or 23 percent, a far cry from 4.1 percent.

In other words, the 4.1 percent unemployment rate does not count the unemployed who do show up in the declining labor force participation rate.

If the US had a print and TV media instead of the propaganda ministry that it has, the financial press would not tolerate the deception of the public about employment in America.

Junk economists, of which the US has an over-supply, claim that the decline in the labor force participation rate merely reflects people who prefer to live on welfare than to work for a living and the current generation of young people who prefer life at home with parents paying the bills. This explanation from junk economists does not explain why suddenly Americans discovered welfare and became lazy in 2001 and turned their back on job opportunities. The junk economists also do not explain why, if the economy is at full employment, competition for workers is not driving up wages.

The reason Americans cannot find jobs and have left the labor force is that US corporations have offshored millions of American jobs in order to raise profits, share prices, and executive bonuses by lowering labor costs. Many American industrial and manufacturing cities have been devastated by the relocation abroad of production for the American consumer market, by the movement abroad of IT and software engineering jobs, and by importing lower paid foreign workers on H1-B and other work visas to take the jobs of Americans. In my book, The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism, I give examples and document the devastating impact jobs offshoring has had on communities, cities, pension funds, and consumer purchasing power.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE REST:  PCR – MAKE BELIEVE AMERICA

Retail Sales: When The Government “Goal-Seeks” Economic Reports

The headline retail sales report, released today by the Census Bureau, showed a rather unexpectedly large 0.8% jump from October.  The Wall Street brain trust was expecting a 0.3% increase.   Of course, 99% of stock market investors and 100% of the financial media never looks at the details below the headline reports.   To do this, one has make an effort to scroll down to page four of the report.  There you will find this table (excerpt):

You’ll note that I highlighted this “(*)” in yellow. From the footnotes to the report, this “(*)” means this: “Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business.” For purposes of the advance estimate, the Census Bureau “imputes” the data. In other words, the CB fills in a guesstimate. According to the CB propaganda, over 30% of the data used in the monthly estimate is a guess “imputed.”  The beauty of this is that the CB has leeway to report a fictitious number for the advance estimate and then revise the original estimate when it reworks its numbers in the annual “benchmark revision” of the data,.  By then no one bothers to look or even cares the degree to which the original advance estimated was flawed.  The market only cares about the headline number when it’s reported.  I would bet a roll of American Silver Eagles that CNBC’s Steve Liesman has no clue about this aspect of the retail sales report.

My point here is that the headline report is a fairytale.  Furthermore, the headline report is based on nominal numbers.  In this case, gasoline sales – for which data for the advance estimate is available – were responsible for one-third of the 0.8% headline increase from October.  This increase is largely attributable to gasoline price inflation.  In truth, the actual “unit” volume of sales in November vs. October is largely a mystery.  Yes, online sales have been strong, but online sales represent less than 10% of total retail sales.

Interestingly, the stock market agrees with my analysis of the retail sales situation.  The XRT retail ETF was down nearly 2% today (Thursday).  The RTH retail ETF was down 0.6%.  RTH was down despite the fact that AMZN, which represents 18% of RTH’s assets, was up nearly 0.9%.

Government economic reports are notoriously manipulated and thus a highly unreliable indicator of economic activity. The reports have become little more than propaganda tools used to “goal-seek” the political agenda of both the Government and the economic agenda of the Federal Reserve.

As the publisher of a newsletter that is based on shorting stocks – the Short Seller’s Journal – I have featured several retail stock short ideas this year, some of which have been the best-performing shorts.  As a market bear, I love to see contrarian like this:

The graph shows the jump in investor dollars (largely retail investors) tossed at the retail sector (XRT) in November (top panel). The bottom panel shows the short-interest in XRT, which is at its lowest since mid-2015. Short interest dropped 22% over the last month in XRT and is down to 1% of total shares outstanding. Investors are exceedingly bullish on retail stocks and I believe this exuberance is absent fundamental justification (December 3rd, Short Seller’s Journal).

The next issue will of the Short Seller’s Journal will continue to introduce short ideas from the retail stock sector.  Click here for more information about this unique newsletter:  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information.

Anti-Gold Puppet Now Hints Gold Will Soar

Several representatives of the elitists have been warning about a major global financial crisis.  Recently the former Head of the Monetary and Economics Department at the Bank of International Settlements, the Central Bank of Central Banks, warned that there are “more dangers now than in 2007.”

Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, Jeff Currie, who is infamous for incorrectly predicting gold would drop to $800 about three years ago, recently advised anyone listening to own physical gold:  “don’t buy futures or ETFs…buy the real thing. . .the lesson learned was that if gold liquidity dries up along with the broader market, so does your hedge, unless it’s physical gold in a vault, the true hedge of last resort.”

Jeffrey Christian has spent most of his career operating as a shill for the western Central Banks and bullion banks who lead the effort to manipulate gold using fraudulent paper gold derivatives.  He scoffs at the idea that gold is manipulated.   It was curious, then, when he was interviewed by Kitco and was recommending that investors should hold at least 20% of their assets in gold.  He also forecast a $1700 price target.

SGT Report invited me to discuss the significance Christian’s comments, which of course included a denial of gold manipulation:

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Non-Farm Payroll Propaganda – Aka Fake News

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” Joseph Goebbels

I dislike giving the employment report any acknowledgment because the report is constructed for the purposes of political expedience. But I can’t help posting a few comments because, once again, the non-farm payroll report for June showed significant growth in sectors of the economy for which real world business economic reports showed economic contraction. The headline number purports that the 222k new jobs were created in June. This wailed on the consensus estimate of 170k.

The Government attributes 16k in new jobs to the construction industry. How can this possibly have been the case when construction spending declined 4.4% on a quarterly basis for April and May? Moreover, housing starts have been declining for the past few months, including June. Unless there’s a new model for running a business, contracting economic activity is accompanied by payroll cost-cutting. The number is just not credible. Same with retail, for which the Government wants us to believe that 8100 jobs miraculously were created despite the fact that retail stores are being closed at one of the fast rates in history.

Then there’s the nefarious “birth/death” model, which guesstimates the number of jobs created by new companies started in June net of jobs lost from new businesses closed in June. I have news for the Bureau of Labor Statistics: new business formation, according to Gallop, is at a 40-yr low. Furthermore, potential business owners are less likely to risk borrowing money for a new business when the cost of borrowing is increasing. Maybe the BLS statisticians forgot about the Fed interest rate hikes and forgot to plug the higher cost of capital in to their new business formations blender. The B/D model attributes 102k new jobs from new businesses net of business deaths. To convolute their reporting Hmmm…23k of those came from construction…need I say more?

The above commentary is a preview of this week’s Short Seller’s Journal.