Tag Archives: Junior mining stocks

Animal Spirits Are Percolating In The Gold Market

The use of the term “animal spirits” is most commonly attributed to John Maynard Keynes. But it originates from the Latin term, “spiritus animales” in reference to the spirit that drives human thought, feeling and action. We saw animal spirits at work in gold and silver on Tuesday this past week when the Dow dropped 237 points and gold quickly popped up $16. Silver jumped 72 cents, much to Wall Street’s surprise, on March 16th after the FOMC issued its latest monetary policy statement despite an assurance that the Fed would raise rates three more times this year.

At some point the paper control of the gold market is going to fall prey to animal spirits. I think the reaction of the metals after the FOMC policy release and when the Dow plunged are evidence that “animal spirits” are percolating in the precious metals market. (Excerpt from yesterday’s issue of the Mining Stock Journal)

In the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal I review a junior mining stock that was heavily promoted last summer ahead of a big issuance of stock. Many of you may own it thinking you sitting on junior with close to 20 million ounces of gold in the ground. What I found when I examined the background of management and quality of the alleged mineralization on the company’s properties, with no plans for advancing the properties, might shock you. This stock is down 50% from its highs last summer and insiders were dumping shares in September before the stock sold off. This is a stock you want to avoid and you can find out more about it by subscribing:  Mining Stock Journal subscription info.

When I asked a colleague and subscriber who invests in junior mining stocks and participates in select financings if he had an opinion on the above-mentioned company, this was his partial response: “No, I have never looked at it principally because of the people behind it, who are well-known to front run their own subscribers.”

Trump Will Be Great For Gold And Silver (If Nothing Else)

I love days like today when both gold and the dollar are green. Historically, some of the best moves in gold occur as gold and the dollar move up together for short period of time. Today, of course, is just one day. And there’s no question that the Trump Government will need a significantly lower dollar in order to stimulate U.S. industry, assuming the latter is at all possible anymore.

On the other hand, if somehow Trump manages to get Congress to pass his border control and excise tax proposals, consumer prices on the products being imported at prices much lower than the same products can be produced domestically will soar. Let’s not forget, gold loves inflation.

In terms of the fundamentals supporting gold, the Fed’s unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged confirms my suspicion that the likely next move sometime later this year will be some sort of loosening of monetary policy. Consumer liquidity continues to dry up. This is especially evident in the retail sales reports plus the big drop reported for January auto sales.

In addition, various price inflation reports are starting to emerge. On Feb 1st, Bloomberg reported that the Citigroup Inflation Surprise Index, which is a global index that measures price surprises relative to market expectations, is at its highest in more than five years. Even the Government-produced inflation reports in the U.S. have been coming in “hotter” than expected. This is a difficult feat given all of the hedonic adjustments plus other various gimmicks the Government statisticians inflict on the data in order to mute the ability of the index to measure true inflation (note: the manipulation of the CPI was implemented by the Arthur Burns-led Federal Reserve shortly after Nixon closed the gold window – they knew what was coming, which was massive money supply expansion and the resulting price inflation).

In other words, even the Government will be unable to hide fully the effect that trillions of QE and credit expansion is having on consumer prices. This will act as a turbo-booster on the price of gold when this reality eventually grips the capital markets.

In the physical markets, despite China’s week-long closure to observe the Chinese New Year (Year of the Rooster), the eastern hemisphere markets continue to “consume” a lot of physical gold. Premiums all week in India have been high enough to reflect moderate to heavy legal kilo bar importation. Dore bar imports have been flowing steadily for several weeks.  Additionally, Vietnamese were paying $135 over world spot gold, indicating voracious demand.

The latest official Swiss gold export report for December shows that the Swiss exported 154 tonnes of gold to mainland China in December. This was almost four times higher than exports to Hong Kong and more than three times the amount of gold shipped from from HK into China’s mainland. This would be the gold that enters China via Beijing and Shanghai that goes unaccounted for by the World Gold Council and the GFMS data-keepers. Additionally, East and South Asian countries accounted for 87% of Swiss gold exports in December.

Thus, contrary to the popular mainstream financial fake news, China’s appetite for gold remains voracious. Needless to say, all the “stars are aligning” for what could be a spectacular year for the precious metals and mining stocks. Not the least of which is the unpredictability of, and the undefinable nature of, the Trump presidency.

Most of the above commentary was an excerpt from the February 2nd Mining Stock Journal.  In that issue I reviewed five previous names presented, of which three are significantly higher from when the MSJ presented the idea.  Of the other two, one is down about the same amount as the sector since August and the other one is a silver exploration company that is percolating on top of what may turn out to be one of the larger silver deposits in the world in addition to containing large quantities of zinc, lead and gold. I also mentioned an emerging producer that may be acquired before summer.

You can subscribe to the MSJ here:  Mining Stock Journal.  The publication is a bi-weekly newsletter with unique insight on the gold and silver market that also focuses on undervalued junior exploration and emerging producer ideas.  New subscribers, for now, will receive all of the back-issues.

I am a subscriber to both of your journals.  I just want to say “WOW” to this post on your site. Thank you for all your work. As a financial professional of 28 years’ experience, I can tell you why there is no churn in your journal subscriptions. Your work is extremely sound and well done even in a massively manipulated environment.  –  recent email from a subscriber to the Mining Stock and Short Seller Journals

“Gold Is Money – And Nothing Else”

– JP Morgan on December 18, 1912 in testimony to Congress

Crush The Street’s Kenneth Ameduri invited to discuss why I believe the current stock market is the most overvalued in history.  We also chatted about the movement by western Governments to a digital currency system and, of course, the precious metals market.  It’s my view that the pullback in the precious metals sector that began in late July was over by the end of December.  I also believe that there’s good probability that the next move in the sector will be more powerful than the 2016 move.

You can listen to our conversation here:

If you want to have access to my proprietary precious metals market analysis and junior mining stock ideas you can subscribe to the Mining Journal with this link:  MSJ Subscription Link.   The subscription is email-based and new subscribers get all of the back-issues.  The next issue will be published Thursday this week and I have an extraordinarily intriguing high risk / high return, 10-bagger potential stock idea.

 

Fundamentals Will Take Gold & Silver Higher Now

In the absence of the extreme degree of price intervention being conducted by the western Central Banks and bullion banks in the paper gold and silver markets, the price of both precious metals would be several multiples higher.  That this intervention occurs not only has become overtly visible to all market participants, but recent prosecution/settlement events have rendered this assertion indisputable.

After a massive move that started in mid-December 2015, the sector began selling-off in early July.  This correction was a function of both characteristic market technicals and conspicuous paper market manipulation in the New York and London paper gold/silver “markets.”

But after nearly five years of oppressive, unfettered market manipulation, the physical market has put a floor beneath the market.  After a price “correction” of 8% in gold and 16% in silver, the metals are now ready to go higher from here.  This was “telegraphed” by the recent price-action in the junior mining stocks as represented by the GDXJ junior mining stock index:

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The junior mining stocks – especially the smaller exploration companies – similarly signaled the move higher in the metals ahead of the rest of the sector beginning in early December 2015.

While the Central Banks would love nothing more right now than to take gold and silver down to zero, the markets – driven by the physical deliver bullion markets in the eastern hemisphere, appear to want the market to move higher.  The sequence of trading events beginning yesterday through today illustrates this dynamic.

After a big rally in the mining stocks and metals in the first half of the trading on Wednesday, the miners slammed after the FOMC meeting statement was released in the afternoon.  The HUI was taken down from its high of 226 (up 7 pts) to close down down 4 points at 215.   This signaled a likely price ambush in the metals, which occurred just after midnight EST, taking December gold down $14 from $1301 to $1287 – silver was taken below $18.

The mind-set going into the NYSE was that the HUI would get slammed again.  But the market had different ideas.   The HUI began moving up at the open.  It’s been up as much as 2.5% from yesterday’s close.  Shortly thereafter, the metals began to rally as well. Historically, after a reversal like yesterday, the metals and miners typically continue lower for at least few days.   But with the mining stocks leading the way, it is highly probable that the next move from here will be higher (with plenty of manipulated volatility, of course).

In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth, we explain why the precious metals sector has shifted into a trend in which every price pullback should be used to accumulate and add to positions in gold, silver and your favorite mining stocks.

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Gold And The Dollar Moving In Tandem?

One interesting occurrence that has not been written about in the precious metals alternative media or blog space yet is that gold has been quietly moving in tandem with the dollar over the past several trading sessions. It has been quite pronounced during the past four trading days, today inclusive. In the previous 15 years, gold’s best periods of return have occurred when gold and the dollar move in tandem higher for a brief period of time, followed by a period of time when the dollar heads south and gold continues higher.

If you look at graphs of both gold and the dollar side by side, you’ll see that this occurred in late 2005 into early 2006, when gold moved higher until May while the dollar fell and again in late 2008. It’s too early tell if that will happen now, but suffice it to say that both are moving in tandem right now and it’s worth watching to see if it continues. My theory is that there’s flight to safety into gold and the dollar ahead of an adverse economic event. As the event unfolds, the dollar begins to sell off but capital continues to flow into gold as the ultimate wealth preservation asset.

The above analysis is an excerpt from the latest issue of IRD’s Mining Stock Journal which was released last night.   Earlier today, Bill “Midas” Murphy poked his head out of the New Orleans Investment Conference and asked me why the metals were acting “so goofy” this morning, to which I replied:

Interestingly, gold and the dollar have been moving in tandem the past several days. Not perfect correlation but I bet its 80-85%. I discussed this in the latest issue of my Mining Stock Journal. Over the last 15 years, gold has had some of its best performance periods when it moved in tandem with the dollar for a bit then took off higher while the dollar sold off. It’s been moving in tandem with the dollar today as well.

The manipulated correction is over. India and China are buying a LOT of gold right now. Two days ago nearly 100 tonnes were delivered onto the SGE. I don’t think the cartel can take gold lower and I think right now they are merely trying to keep the “beachball” from popping above the surface of the water. Every time gold pops up, they hit it, but gold bounces back like one of those punching clowns.

At some point they are going to have to go back into “managed retreat.” Maybe once the election is over.

You’ll note that there’s now been a complete reversal in the precious metals sector, with gold, silver and the HUI running higher and the SPX/Dow headed south.   MSJ subscribers have been getting analysis like this since early March.  In addition, my picks have been substantially outperforming the sector. MSJ is $20/month, with no minimum commitment period.   You can access this content by clicking here:  Mining Stock Journal.

You’ve got a great journal for an amazing price  – James, happy subscriber

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Junior Miners: Gold And Silver Are Ready To Rumble

Massive one-shot selling of non-physical gold on Tuesday, October 4th, appeared to be typical of gold-price-depressing market interventions seen repeatedly in recent years. Those interventions have been orchestrated regularly by central banks…Post-election, the Fed likely will face economic and liquidity circumstance more conducive to expanded quantitative easing, than to meaningful rate hikes. Reverting now to obvious market manipulation of the price of gold could be a leading indicator of pending central-bank policy otherwise shifting towards intensified U.S. dollar debasement.  – John Williams, Shadowstats.com

The Fed was overtly aggressive in its attack on gold and silver during the past few weeks.  As John Williams observes in the quote above, it’s probable that the Fed has made every effort to suppress the price of gold ahead of the implementation of more QE in some form (dollar debasement).

Several analysts have been offering up theories with regard to the performance of gold based on the winner of the presidential election.  But the truth is, gold and silver will do well for the foreseeable future regardless of which candidate wins.   Perhaps this chart created by Twitter @thingtankcharts, with my edits, will explain my view:

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The graphic above shows the three massive bubbles blown by the Fed, the last two of which hit exhaustion and were followed by a collapse in the stock market.  The third bubble is by far the biggest and will likely be followed by a stunning stock market collapse unless the Fed blows even harder with a bigger QE program than was implemented in 2008.  Either way, gold and silver will soar.

Right now, of course, India and China have stepped up ot their seasonal gold feeding trough with healthy appetites. Jewelers in India see a 10-20% rise in demand for this year’s festival season – Economic Times.

Away from the activity in the physical gold market, another indicator has perked up:  the junior mining stocks.  Not necessarily the junior segment as a whole, but the smaller cap juniors which potentially have high-payoff deposits and the cash to fund exploration.

The fund I co-manage owns several of these so I happened to notice that trading volumes in these stocks began to spike up in mid-late December, around the time that gold and silver began to move higher but in advance of the universe of mining stocks.  The volume in these stocks began spiking up late last week and early this week. As examples, volumes on the TSX listing for Rye Patch Gold, Alamadex Minerals, Barkerville Gold, Arizona Mining and Treasury Metals spiked up considerably this week.  This is just a few examples.

The junior exploration stocks tend to be largely off the radar screen of most mining stock investors.  But I also believe that the smartest hedge funds who play in the mining stock sandbox are well aware that the smallest juniors have the most upside leverage to rising gold and silver prices.   In other words, “really smart money” smells another moving coming the precious metals – likely in anticipation of further dollar devaluation policies implemented by the Fed and Government.

We know that whoever is the next President will ramp up Government spending in an attempt to revive an economy that is on the verge of depression.  The only way this can be enabled, in light of the fact that China and other major Central Banks are dumping Treasuries, is for the Fed to step up and monetize the debt that will have to be issued by the Government to fund even more fiscal spending
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The number one and two priorities will be a Federal bailout of Obamacare and a move to prop up the largest State and Federal retirement funds, including Social Security, all of which are badly underfunded and will collapse if the Government does not intervene.  The money printing that is coming will drive the precious metals and miners a lot higher from here.

You can subscribe to the Mining Stock Journal by clicking on this LINK or by clicking on the graphic below.  For now, I am distributing the previous two issues (March 4th was the debut issue) published.  Each bi-monthly issue contains what I believe to be unique commentary and analysis on the gold/silver market plus a thoroughly researched mining stock idea – mostly juniors but I’ll present an occasional large cap idea, especially if I believe it presents a good short term trading opportunity.

  • “You’ve got a great journal for an amazing price.” – James

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Here’s an excerpt from the last issue:

For me, the best indicators that the worst is over are: 1) India and China are transitioning into their largest seasonal period of physical gold buying; 2) the “excess” Comex open interest appears to have substantially liquidated; 3) the stock charts are extremely oversold and some technical indicators are turning up.

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In this issue I presented a couple of large cap ideas that have been extremely oversold, including some ideas for using options. I also updated some of my recent junior picks based on recent events that could drive these stocks higher.

Gold Will Soar Regardless Who’s President

We can ignore reality but we can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.   – Ayn Rand

Perhaps the most infuriating aspect of last night’s final “debate” is the suppression of the truth.  Throughout all three debtes, Hillary overtly avoided answering any direct quetions regarding her infamous emails, thankfully put on display for all to see by Wikileaks.

Last night she pivoted right to blaming it on the Russians.  Talk about conspiracy theory. It is highly improbable that the Russians hacked her illegal email accounts for the purpose of influencing the election.  But Hillary used this sound-byte to deflect away from the Truth.  All of the Truths exposed by the leaked emails which point to Hillary’s criminal activity, including collusion with the media (CNN specifically) to rig the outcome of her primary race and selling access to the State Dept and to Wall Street Banks for donations to the Clinton Foundation.  Those are just two of many acts of criminality exposed by the emails.

But in Hillary’s world, Truth is a liability which would prevent her from ascending to the Oval Office where she can peddle and steal  her way from an 8-figure net worth to a 9-figure net worth. Maybe her nickname will be “three commas.”

That said, we hope Hillary is elected because her supporters will not only end up regretting their choice, but it will adversely affect them and their families forever.

Regardless of who wins the election, gold  and silver are getting ready for another surprising move higher.   The Harry Dent  Jr’s of the world will be left grasping for excuses for why their prediction for a much lower gold price is so horribly wrong.

We discuss the tragic U.S. Presidential election and the reason why gold is getting ready to take off again in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

Gold And Silver Are Headed For New Highs

I’ve  been pounding the table since late January that the third leg of the gold and silver bull market had started in mid-December.  It’s also been quite clear to me that the western Central Banks had lost their ability to push the price of gold/silver down.  Now the best they can hope for is to maintain a “controlled retreat” – i.e.  do what they can to limited rate at which the metals move higher.  That’s why we get these “zip line” price plunge formations followed by another “stair step” higher.

But don’t take it from me.  Andy Hecht, a famed oil trader, had this to say:

“I have been trading precious metals since 1981, and I have never seen an environment where both the technical and fundamental states of the metals have lined up as they have in 2016. I believe that we may be in the early days of a rally that will take gold, silver, platinum and palladium to new all-time highs.”

I need to point out that earlier this year Hecht was slow to accept the move being made by gold and silver and had even issued some bearish remarks at one point.  You can read his full commentary on the metals here:  Gold/Silver Are The Place To Be. (He has the same graphs I was showing 6 weeks ago).

The silver mining stock I featured in the debut issue of the Mining Stock Journal is up over 7% this morning.  It handily beat earnings.  This is the only large-cap miner I have presented.  It’s nearly doubled since early March and the Company pays a monthly dividend.  The call options I recommended are up 260%.   Another stock I recommended in mid-April popped 60% earlier this week. I’ll note that Casey Research had recently “poo-poo’d” this stock. My Mining Stock Journal focuses “off the beaten path” ideas that are higher risk/very high return juniors.   You can subscribe to the MSJ here:  Mining Stock Journal.   The subscription price includes all the back-issues (for now).

Silvercrest Metals May Be The Stock Of The Year

Silvercrest Metals was formed by the former management of Silvercrest Mines, which was acquired by First Majestic in 2015 for $154 million.   The primary property interest for Silvercrest Metals is the Las Chispas project.

Silvercrest’s trench samples showed the possibility of high grade silver mineralization on the property, which is believed to have historically produced about 120 million ozs of silver and 200k ozs of gold through 1930.    Silvercrest confirmed the high probability of a prolific silver deposit with the release of its first drilling results:

“The initial Las Chispas drill hole results received to date are impressive. Not only do they indicate bonanza grades of up to*** 18.55 gpt Au and 2,460 gpt Ag or 3,851.3 gpt AgEq*, but also show mineralized widths up to 7.2 metres in estimated true thickness. These first results have exceeded our expectations and appear to confirm that historic mining completed in the early 1900’s has left behind substantial unexplored, unmined and easily accessible high grade mineralization.” – Eric Fier, President and CEO   Press release.

I first presented this stock idea to subscribers of my Short Seller’s Journal in January at $0.11/share.  At the time I had not rolled out the Mining Stock Journal.  MSJ subscribers in general were able to get into the stock in the mid $0.20’s.    This is the kind of value I bring to my subscribers vs. much more expensive/promotion-oriented newsletters.

The current market cap of Silvercrest is $80 million based on Monday’s closing price.  If the quick trade that occurred Tuesday at $2.28 is indicative of where the stock will trade when it frees up to trade Wednesday, the market cap would be $116 million (fully diluted).

It’s tough to value SIL in the context of what AG paid for Silvercrest Mines.   The latter was an operating mine which is estimated to have 56 million proved/probable and measured/indicated silver-equivalent ozs of silver, with huge exploration upside.  SVLC also included the very promising La Joya project.  The price of silver was around $16 at the time the deal was announced.    One Santa Elena’s most attractive attributes is its extraordinarily low cost of production.

I personally believe the price of silver is headed to much higher levels.  If Las Chispas turns out to be a “blueprint” of Santa Elena,  Silvercrest stock could be worth worth several hundred million at $35 silver.  The drilling results very preliminarily indicate the possibility that Las Chispas could be bigger than Santa Elena.

My objective with the Mining Stock Journal is to find junior mining stock ideas that are not followed by most, if any, mining stock sector analysts and newsletters.   The best upside potential for an investment is to invest in great ideas before the herd piles into a stock.

I am finding that the carnage of the last five years in the sector has created several interesting opportunities to invest in high probability exploration projects at close to “ground zero.”    In fact, in the next issue I’m presenting a company that is getting ready to poke holes in the ground in a property that is an interesting location which appears to have significant gold mineralization.  The Company is fully-funded for an extensive drilling program.

I am a subscriber to your mining stock journal. I haven’t acted on all the mining-stock-journal-bannerrecommendations, but i did act on SVCMF at 0.26 and made a second purchase at 0.57. Today it is up to 2.29, with big action last week and today. Thanks for your recommendations and the Mining Journal you create!!  – subscriber “John”

BREXIT Means Much Higher Gold/Silver Prices

The elitists’ bid to rig the BREXIT referendum failed.  Notwithstanding a continuous flow of propaganda sponsored by the elitist-controlled mainstream media showing that the Remain vote win, the public’s voice in England prevailed.

As I suggested yesterday, the BREXIT pandemonium deflected the public’s attention from the collapsing western economies.   The most prominent sign of this is the Fed’s unwillingness to raise interest rates just one-quarter of one percent.  Today’s durable goods report showed a 2.2% plunge in durable goods orders during May.  A drop of .5% was expected.  This 17 months in a row of year over year declines in “core” durable goods orders. Freight shipments represent the “pulse” of an economic system.  The Cass Truck Transportation Index is in a literal free-fall.

The boost in the U.S. dollar vs. most global currencies will undermine any uptick in export activity that was preliminarily reported for June.  The alleged 4.9% unemployment rate shoved down our throats by the Government and Janet Yellen is belied by the fact that the percentage of working-age people in the U.S. is at its lowest point since the late 1970’s, a time when most households were still one-income in nature.

Perhaps most at stake for the elitists is the paper war on gold and silver that intensified when the metals threatened to go parabolic in 2011.  But there is evidence that the paper rigging scheme is failing.  To the extent that a BREXIT event undermines the euro, one of the collateral consequences for the elitists is that it will hasten the conversion of fiat currencies into physical metal.

But there’s a problem.   The most glaring evidence of this problem is the catastrophic issuance of Comex paper silver claims on a shrinking pile of physical silver in Comex vaults.   Since January 20th there’s been a stunning decline in reported Comex silver inventory.

Currently, the amount of paper silver contracts issued on the Comex represents over one billion ounces of silver. This is more than seven times the total amount of physical silver reported to be sitting in Comex vaults. It’s 45 times more than the amount of “registered” (available to be delivered) silver on the Comex.  It’s 25% more than the annual global production of silver.

I discuss this issue in the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal, which was released yesterday (Thursday).   I present another junior mining stock idea that has still not been discovered by the mainstream mining stock analysts and purveyors of research.  You can access the MSJ here:   Mining Stock Journal.   New subscribers will receive a copy of all of the back-issues plus a discount link for the Short Seller’s Journal.