Tag Archives: mining stocks

Gold And Silver May Be Setting Up For A Big Move

Gold and silver are historically undervalued relative to the stock and bond markets. The junior mining stocks overall are at their most undervalued relative to the price of gold since 2001. Gold’s relative performance during the quarter, when the stock market had its best quarterly performance in many decades, is evidence of the underlying strength building in the precious metals sector.

Furthermore, the stock market is an accident waiting to happen. By several traditional financial metrics, the current stock market is at its most extreme valuation level in history. This will not end well for those who have not positioned their portfolio in advance of the economic and financial hurricane that is beginning to “move onshore.”

Bill Powers invited on to his Mining Stock Education podcast to discuss the precious metals sector and the economy:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a miniumum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

The Divergence Between Stocks And Reality Is Insane

“They may try to run this poor thing straight up and over a cliff. Recall the 2000 top was in March but they briefly ran it back in Sep 00. Ditto in Oct 07. When warning signs are ignored, the endings are abrupt. Maintain safety nets, but don’t assume stupidity has limits.” – John Hussman

This is the nastiest bear market rally that I have seen in my over 34 years of experience as a  financial markets professional. It would be a mistake to make the assumption that there has  not been some official intervention to help the stock market recover from the December sell-off.

Rob Kientz of goldsilverpros.com – a relatively new website that focuses on gold and silver market news and research – and I had a conversation about the extreme negative divergence between the economy and the stock market. And, of course, we discussed gold, silver and mining stocks:

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If you are interested in ideas for taking advantage of the inevitable systemic reset that  will hit the U.S. financial and economic system, check out either of these newsletters:   Short Seller’s Journal  information and more about the Mining Stock Journal here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

Is Barrick Gold Signaling Peak Gold?

Barrick Gold’s hostile takeover offer for Newmont Mining likely signals “peak gold.” Barrick claims the shareholders would benefit from over US$7 billion in NPV of “real synergies.” These “synergies” would primarily be derived from proposed cost-savings by combing the Nevada operations of both companies. As it turns out, footnoted in Barrick’s presentation is the disclosure that the proposed $7 billion NPV represents the projected cash flow benefit of the merger over a 20-year period discounted at 5%.

If I were a NEM shareholder, my answer would be “no thanks.” First, it would be more
appropriate to use a 15-20% discount rate to better represent the probability that Barrick’s
projections over 20 years are even remotely accurate. Second, given the poor track record
over the last 20 years of Barrick’s management, I would be skeptical of any representations
and projections made by the Company. Barrick’s stock has substantially underperformed the  HUI index over the last 20 years. This is significant because Barrick carries a 13.8% weighting in the HUI. While some type of joint venture or merger of the two companies’ Nevada operations makes sense, I do not believe that Barrick will achieve the synergies as presented.

I believe Barrick’s move to buy Randgold and its attempt to acquire Newmont is a desperate attempt to accumulate as much gold reserves as possible to replace the depletion rate of Barrick’s reserves. The most cost effective way with the gold price at its current level to build a large gold resource base is to buy it. Acquiring Newmont would double Barrick’s  proven/probable reserve base and double its annual production.

In my opinion, Barrick’s acquisition of  Randgold and its attempt to acquire Newmont signals both “peak gold” and an outlook for a much higher gold price. There has not been a major gold deposit discovered in  several years. A five million oz discovery used to be considered “major.”  While I don’t know if this is still the case, a former Newmont geologist who now runs a junior mining company told me 10 years ago that NEM wouldn’t even consider a project unless the geologists thought it had a least 5 million ozs of gold.

Those days are probably over. It’s likely that Barrick’s management does not believe the Company has a major discovery to be made in its future. However, the strategy of buying large gold reserves does not make sense unless the Company believes that the depletion rate of gold in the ground is going to exceed the amount of gold found in new deposits going forward.  It also suggests that Barrick believes in the eventuality of a much higher gold price.

On another note, since August 12th, the price of gold has outperformed all of the major stock indices plus Tesla stock (TSLA):

If you are looking for ideas in junior mining stocks to take advantage of the coming bull move in the precious metals sector, try out the Mining Stock Journal:  Mining Stock Journal subscription information (there’s no minimum commitment beyond the first month).

What’s In Store For The Precious Metals Sector in 2019?

The Newmont/Goldcorp merger is the second mega-deal in the industry after Barrick acquired RandGold in September. Without question, the two deals reflect the growing need for large gold and silver mining companies to replace reserves, which are being depleted at these two companies more quickly than they are being replenished. The deal will give Newmont access to Goldcorp’s portfolio of developing and exploration projects acquired by Goldcorp over the last several years.

While this deal and the Barrick/Randgold deal will help cover-up the managerial, operational and financial warts on Barrick and Newmont, it will also likely stimulate an increase in M&A activity in the industry. I believe that the other largest gold mining companies – Kinross, Yamana, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Eldorado, and Agnico-Eagle – will look closely at each other and at mid-cap gold producers to see if they can create “synergistic” merger deals

The same “impulse” holds true for silver companies, the largest of which are diversifying into gold or acquiring competitors (Pan American acquires Tahoe Resources and SRM Mining buys 9.9% of Silvercrest Metals, which will likely block First Majestic from going after Silvercrest, and Americas Silver buys Pershing Gold). Similarly, we could see mid-cap producers merging with each other or acquiring the junior producers.

Phil Kennedy – Kennedy Financial – invited me along with Craig Hempke – TF Metals Report – to discuss the implications of the two gold mega-deals, our outlook for the precious metals sector and a some other timely topics affecting the financial markets:

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In my latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal, I provided a list of gold and silver stocks that I believe could become acquisition targets this year, as well as an in-depth update on one of my top gold exploration stock ideas. You can learn more about this newsletter here: Mining Stock Journal

Unprecedented Manipulation And Trading The Precious Metals Ratios

Anyone who denies that Governments and Central Banks manipulate the gold and silver markets using paper derivatives and deceptive physical metal custodial operations is ignorant of history and facts.  Currently the gold and silver price capping is as oppressive as I’ve witnessed in 18 years.

As of Tuesday, January 15th, the open interest in gold had soared by 89,120 contracts to  501,605. 89,120 contracts is 8.9 million ozs of paper gold, or 278.5 tons – about 30 tons  more than the amount of gold produced by mines in the U.S. in one year.

But artificial market intervention creates information inefficiencies. This in turn generates exploitable profit opportunities for traders who know how to identify the set-ups from official manipulation.

With unprecedented manipulation continuing to occur in the precious metals market, some tradeable anomalies have appeared in the gold /silver and platinum / palladium ratios. My friend and colleague, Chris Marcus (former options trader at Susquehanna International), got together with Andy Schectman and Mickey Fulp to discuss strategies you can use to take advantage of the market anomalies which have been created by official intervention in these markets in the video below. You can see more of Chris’ at his website, Arcadia Economics:

Vista Gold: Overlooked And Undervalued

Vista Gold (VGZ) has a storied history as a junior gold miner.  In 2012 new management, led by CEO, Fred Earnest, took control of the operations and has been advancing the Mt. Todd gold project, which is the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia.

Mt. Todd contains nearly 6 million ounces of gold reserve (proven/probable).  A Preliminary Feasibility Study updated in 2018 shows a project with 381,000 ozs of annual production over a 13-yr mine life (479,000 ozs/yr for first 5 years), an after-tax IRR of 20% and after-tax NPV of $679 million.  The current market cap of the stock is $57 million (100 million shares outstanding).  As an operating mine, it would be the fourth largest gold mine in Australia and one of the largest new gold mines in the world over the last several years.

I’m not sure why VGZ trades at a huge discount to its peers and to its “intrinsic value.”  To be sure, the Mt. Todd Project has a checkered history.  But this is primarily attributable to inept management by previous owners.  On the surface the resource grade may appear low (.82 grams per tonne). But VGZ has successfully tested and implemented high-tech ore sorting technology which has improved the throughput grade by as much as 50% (1.2 grams per tonne) and has taken heap leach recovery rates north of 90%.

The Mt Todd Project will be converted eventually to a mine.  I suspect that, as the price of gold rises, a large mining company will either invest in the Project and take over operational control or acquire Vista outright.  The Company has signed recent non-disclosure agreements with mining companies interested in the Project. Until an “exit strategy” event unfolds, this stock is an easy double from its current price.

The Mining Stock Daily’s Trevor Hall interviewed Vista’s CEO to discuss the Mt. Todd Project (click on the graphic below to stream the interview or stream it on your favorite app here – Mining Stock Daily):

The Mining Stock Daily is produced by Clear Creek Digital and the Mining Stock Journal. MSD is now sponsored by Mineral Alamos, which has a portfolio of high quality gold and gold-silver-copper polymetallic assets in Mexico.

You can learn more about Vista Gold and other highly undervalued junior mining stock in the Mining Stock Journal: Mining Stock Journal information.

In the latest issue, I discuss my outlook for the precious metals and mining stocks in my latest Mining Stock Journal. I also present a list of large and mid-cap mining stocks that should outperform the market for at least a few months, including ideas for using call options.

Welcome To 2019: Declining Stocks, A Falling Dollar And Rising Gold / Silver Prices

The stock market has become the United States’ “sacred cow.” For some reason stock prices have become synonymous with economic growth and prosperity. In truth, the stock market is nothing more than a reflection of the inflation/currency devaluation caused by the Fed’s money printing and lascivious enablement of rampant credit creation. 99% of all households have not experienced the rising prosperity and wealth of the upper 1%. The Fed’s own wealth distribution statistics support this assertion.

It’s been amusing to watch Trump transition from tagging the previous Administration with creating a “big fat ugly stock bubble” – with the Dow at 17,000 – to threats of firing the Fed Chairman for “allowing” the stock market to decline, with the Dow falling from 26,000 to 23,000. If the stock market was big fat ugly bubble in 2016, what is it now?

If the Fed pulls back from its interest rate “nudges” and liquidity tightening policy, the dollar will sell-off, gold will elevate in price rapidly and the Trump Government will find it significantly more difficult to finance its massive deficit-spending fiscal policy. Welcome to 2019…

SBTV, produced by Silver Bullion in Singapore, invited me onto their podcast to discuss the Fed, the economy and, of course, gold and silver:

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If you are interested in ideas for taking advantage of the inevitable systemic reset that  will hit the U.S. financial and economic system, check out either of these newsletters:   Short Seller’s Journal  information and more about the Mining Stock Journal here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

A Quiet Bull Move In Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks

Silver is up 12.4% since November 11th, gold is up 9.3% since August 15th.  But the GDX mining stock ETF is up 21.4 % since September 11th.  GDX is actually up 71% since mid- January 2016.  By comparison, the SPX is up just 34% over the same time period (Jan 19th, 2016).

There’s a quiet bull market unfolding in the precious metals sector.  But don’t expect to hear about it on CNBC, Bloomberg TV or Fox Business – or the NY Times, Wall Street Journal and Barron’s, for that matter.

My colleague Trevor Hall interviewed precious metals analyst and newsletter purveyor,  David Erfle to get his take on what to expect in 2019 for the sector and  a couple of his favorite stocks (download this on your favorite app here: Mining Stock Daily):

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I discuss my outlook for the precious metals and mining stocks in my latest Mining Stock Journal, released to subscribers last night. I also present a list of large and mid-cap mining stocks that should outperform the market for at least a few months, including ideas for using call options. You can learn more about the Mining Stock Journal here:   Mining Stock Journal information.

Mining Stock Daily’s 2019 Outlook For Precious Metals

A quiet bull market in mining stocks is underway. The GDX ETF closed trading on New Year’s Eve up 2.37%. Through Monday, the GDX has risen 20% since hitting a 52-week low close of $17.57 on September 11, 2018. In popular parlance, GDX is now in a “bull market.”

We expect that a significant bull move will occur and a significant amount of capital will pull out of “risk assets” and move into physical gold and silver for wealth preservation/flight-to-safety.

Click on the image below to hear the short and sweet 2019 inaugural Mining Stock Daily Podcast:

Mining Stock Daily is produced by Clear Creek Digital and the Mining Stock Journal.

Mining Stock Daily: Western Copper & Gold Is Undervalued

The Mining Stock Daily, a collaboration between ClearCreekDigital and Investment Research Dynamics, interviewed the CEO, Paul West-Sells, to learn more about Western Copper & Gold (WRN on both the NYSE and TSX). But first, here’s background on WRN:

Western Copper & Gold is advancing the Casino Project, a world-class copper-gold porphyry deposit, in the Yukon. The deposit contains 4.5 billion lbs of copper and 8.9 million ounces of gold reserve and 5.4 billion lbs and 9 million ozs of inferred resource.

Western Copper was a spin-off from Western Silver after Glamis Gold acquired Western Silver in May 2006 (three months later Goldcorp acquired Glamis). WRN acquired the old Lumina Resources in September 2006 for Lumina’s three copper properties, one of which was Casino. WRN spun-off the other two properties.

WRN only has 106.4 million fully-diluted shares outstanding (including options/warrants), which is remarkable for company that has been developing a massive copper-gold project for 11 years. Insiders own 8% of the stock. A small group of high net worth private investors who have made a lot of money on companies run by WRN Executive Chairman, Dale Corman, own 48% of the stock and institutional/retail own the remaining 44%.

WRN raised $32 million in 2012 selling a Net Smelter Return royalty to Orion Capital. That NSR was sold to Osisko in June 2017 when Osisko acquired a portfolio of royalty assets from Orion.

With a market cap of US$70 million (fully-diluted basis), WRN is extraordinarily undervalued on a risk-return basis. This is especially true considering the recent wave of copper-gold porphyry project M&A activity. Recall that Newcrest invested approximately US$14 million for a 19.9% stake in Azucar’s El Cobre, which valued that early-stage copper-gold project at US$74 million. In 2017, Goldcorp paid US$185 million for Exeter’s Caspice copper-gold project high up in the Chilean Andes.

There have been several other transactions in the copper-gold space, including Zijin’s (Chinese company) acquisition of Nevsun for $1.41 billion (September 2018) for the Timok copper-gold project in Serbia and the recently closed sale of the Malmyzh copper-gold project (Freeport, EMX Royalty) to Russian Copper Company for US$200 million.

WRN’s project is not as large or as high-quality as Malmyzh, but it’s several years closer to being converted into an operating mine. At this juncture, with the current price of copper and gold, the “asset value” of WRN, based on the roster of comparable transactions, is at least US$140 million. I would not be surprised to see one of the companies with projects near Casino make bid a for WRN at some point in next 6-12 months. There’s also a list of other potential acquirers, including RioTinto, BHP and Freeport.

Click on the graphic below to hear Trevor Hall’s interview with WRN’s Paul West-Sells (you can also download the interview on your favorite app by clicking here: MSD platforms):

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The analysis above on WRN is from the November 8th issue of the Mining Stock Journal. To learn more about this newsletter, click here: Mining Stock Journal information