Category Archives: Gold

Infinite QE, Bear Market Rallies, Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks

The precious metals sector continues to be glaringly ignored by the mainstream financial media and most “alternative” forms of media. This is a “loud” indicator that the fattest part of the bull move is yet to come. YTD gold is up 11.8%, GDX is up 16.4% while the SPX is down 12.6%. If the SPX were up 16% YTD, they’d be doing naked cartwheels on CNBC.Mining Stock Journal – May 14, 2020

The stock market is reflecting the expectation of a “V” recovery in the economy. The Trump Government, specifically Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, believes economic activity will be largely restored by the end of August. It’s nothing but propagandist fantasy.  I’d be stunned if he really believes that.  This bear market rally is a just that – a bear market rally. The same pattern occurred after the tech bubble popped in 2000. The Naz plunged 40% followed by a 42% rebound rally. When the bear rally ran out of steam, the Naz declined 42% over the next four months.

A lot of money is flowing into mining stocks, especially junior exploration companies. More investors are aware that the cat is out of the bag w/regard to the physical vs. paper situation in London and NYC. The money flowing into mining stocks – especially speculative juniors – is starting to go from a trickle to a heavy current.  A lot of stock deals that have been announced in the last couple of weeks have been up-sized by a considerable amount. This is highly bullish indicator for the precious metals sector.

Silver Doctors / SD Bullion invited me back to discuss the insanely overvalued stock market and the precious metals market:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

“I’ve always thought your newsletter is the best value in the junior mining world. It’s great to get your insight as things get moving here. Some of your suggestions are among my best performers.” – subscriber, “James,” to the Mining Stock Journal

A Hopelessly Corrupt Financial System Plus Historic Bubbles – Got Gold?

“At the parabolic top of every financial bubble, thrilled investors lose their tether to
reality, and as the price of the speculative instrument rallies ever higher, investors’
expectations for additional price appreciation inflate ever more. Whether its Cisco Systems at a trillion-dollar market value, Qualcomm at $1000 a share, Oil at $200 a barrel, Bitcoin at a million dollar a piece, or Tesla at $7000 a share, these far fetched price fantasies are the fuel with which bubbles, and their beneficiaries, attempt to sustain themselves.

To the chagrin of the bubble chasers, history is categorical in this regard, the combination of a parabolic price move, a hype narrative, and the proliferation of wild price projections, is highly indicative of a topping bubble and an impending price collapse. Of course, Tesla shareholders will dismiss this article as irrelevant since history count little in the eyes of those who believe their company to be at the forefront of a new transportation and business paradigm.” – Nawar Alsaadi, “Is The Tesla Bubble About To Burst?”“Is The Tesla Bubble About To Burst?”

The Fed has re-inflated the biggest stock and asset bubble in history after the previously biggest stock bubble was punctured in March. Today the Fed will begin buying junk bond/leveraged loan ETFs using Blackrock as its front. There’s two obvious problems with this. First, how does this help the economy?  The money printed and used to purchase the ETF securities will never flow to the companies issuing junk bonds. Ask United Airlines, which had to abandon plans to raise a couple billion in the junk bond market after the market rejected its attempt to issue 11% coupon bonds.  Why didn’t the Fed just buy up that issue? It’s an odd-lot compared to what it’s printed and thrown at the big banks up to this point.

The second problem is Jay Powell’s conflict of interest. Powell has an $11 million equity stake in Blackrock. For its riskless efforts in buying ETFs for the Fed, Blackrock will be paid $15 million.  And guess what? The taxpayers are on the hook for the money the Fed prints and transfers to ETFs and to Blackrock when the trade goes bad – which it will.

“A recurring feature of a bursting investment bubble is the culmination of absurd statements and assertions by an otherwise seemingly reasonable individuals right around the parabolic top of such phenomena.” (ibid)

Shopify (SHOP) closed at an all-time high yesterday. SHOP now sports the largest market cap on the Toronto Stock Exchange.  SHOP didn’t start filing SEC financials until 2015. But going back to at least 2013, SHOP has yet to produce an operating profit.

The clowns on Wall Street and the financial media gushed over SHOP’s Q1 “blow-out earnings.” There’s just one glaring problem with that assertion.  SHOP didn’t even come close to anything that resembles “earnings.”  SHOP’s net loss before taxes more than doubled to $60 million from $24 million in Q1/19.  It’s operating loss also more than doubled to $73 million from $24 million in Q1/19.

EVEN IF you add back the non-cash expense from stock compensation, SHOP’s “adjusted” operating loss increased over 400% to -$20mm from -$4.6mm.  SHOP’s operating expense margin jumped 300 basis points to 70.2% from 67.5%. A lot of that is probably the extension to new customers of the free platform access beyond 90 days. This horrible financial performance is reinforced by the fact that insiders are dumping massive quantities of shares. The time from vest to sale happens so quickly one might think the share certs are infected with coronavirus. In fact, two days after SHOP reported, insiders unloaded another flood of shares.

SHOP now trades at 52x trailing sales and 28x book. Its trailing P/E is infinite (i.e. no earnings to use in the denominator). Wall St./ Bay St. shills are projecting a small net income for 2020. There’s just one problem with this – even the Company has withdrawn guidance. In other words, the “analysts” are merely making shit up.

Eventually the gap between SHOP’s valuation and reality will converge. Those who rented the shares to sell at a higher level will be burned badly. Those holding SHOP shares because “it’s a new economy and it’s different this time” will watch the value of their shares sink well below their cost. Want an “expert’s” view on this?  Ask Bill Miller (@B3_MillerValue) how quickly he ended up losing money for the investors in his Legg Mason Value fund in 2008. His fund, after 15 years in a row of beating the SPX fell below its value at the start of the 15-yr run.

“It’s all so openly corrupt but once again a smashing of gold couldn’t last more than a day.” – Chris Powell, GATA Treasurer

There’s a way to protect yourself from the interminable corruption at the Fed, Wall St and Capitol Hill. Move a large percentage of your investible cash into physical gold (and silver) – not GLD, not a gold investment account – that you safekeep yourself.  Gold has run up 16% since March 19th and 41% since May 22nd.  If the SPX put in a performance like that, they would be doing on naked cartwheels on CNBC, Fox Business and BloombergTV.

The LBMA Is Just As Rigged As The Comex

Gold is going a lot higher, especially once India  – which has been absent from the gold market since the virus crisis started  – re-opens its economy . Silver is starting to wake-up and should outperform gold by a substantial margin going forward.

Chris Marcus (Arcadia EconomicsArcadia Economics) and I discuss the dubious credibility of the LBMA and evidence that it’s just as rigged as the Comex now:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

“I’ve always thought your newsletter is the best value in the junior mining world. It’s great to get your insight as things get moving here. Some of your suggestions are among my best performers.” – subscriber, “James,” to the Mining Stock Journal

LBMA Uses Unallocated Gold To Manipulate the Fix

“If you own gold, you have money. If you don’t own gold, you have a problem”  – (James Turk).  To that I’ll add:  If you don’t have physical possession of your gold, you do not own gold

A significant amount of gold is held as “unallocated,” which is when an entity buys gold and establishes an account that is credited with value of the gold purchased.  A gold bar is not actually stored on behalf of the “buyer.”  Rather the buyer has a “promise” from the bank vault custodian to deliver the bar or its cash equivalent when the entity decides to either take delivery or “sell” the bar.

Because an actual bar in the buyer’s name is not sitting in the custodial vault, the buyer does not incur storage or other related fees. BUT, the buyer does not have legal title of ownership to anything other than an account  showing the value of the “gold.”  Like a checking account, the bank is entitled to use the proceeds from the gold “purchase” for its business operations.

This arrangement is really no different than than Comex paper gold contract long position. In other words, an unallocated gold account is nothing more than security interest in the account – it’s a paper derivative.

In this regard, the LBMA is little more than a fractional gold banking system, just like the Comex. The advantage of the unallocated gold account system is that the entities that run the a.m./p.m. London price fix can use unallocated gold offerings to give the illusion that the price fix is based on bona fide demand and supply of actual physical bars. Yet, very little physical gold changes legal ownership or is moved from the unallocated accounts to allocated accounts when the fix process clears.

Ronan Manly has been knocking the cover off the ball with his research and analysis which exposes the fraud and corruption engulfing the  London gold market.  In this must-read article, Manly explains the process by which the LBMA uses its twice-daily price “fix” – which is indeed a “price fixing operation” and little more –  to artificially suppress the spot “price” of gold:

As the gaping spread between London (LBMA) spot gold prices and front-month COMEX gold futures prices persists for a sixth week triggered by the bullion bank EFP liquidity blow up on Monday 23 March 2020, one unappreciated aspect of this gold price discovery scandal is that daily London LBMA Gold Price auctions are deliberately ignoring COMEX gold prices when setting the Opening Price (starting price) in the twice daily gold price auction.

His work explains the factors which have caused the unprecedented price differential between the “spot” price and the Comex futures price curve. You can read the entire piece here: LBMA Gold Price benchmark ignoring market conditions, short-changing investors.

Why Did The CME Secure A $10 Billion Credit Facility?

The credit facility was put in place in November 2017. It was brought to the public’s attention when Marketwatch picked up on an SEC filing which renewed the credit facility.  I don’t know if there’s any correlation per se, but the credit facility was established after it was clear that the price of gold and silver had started their next big bull market move with several Comex clearing member banks potentially catastrophically short gold and silver futures contracts.

Ultimately, the CME has 2 or 3 “safety nets” to guard against a default from any one CME clearing member from disrupting the entire CME house of cards. The fact the CME was compelled to establish another $7-10 billion “cushion” tells me that the central counterparties should be held responsible for their trading decisions by putting up a much bigger performance bond. Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and I discuss what’s going with the CME, Comex and precious metals market:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Hyperinflating The Money Supply Means Massive Upside For Gold And Silver

The Fed’s balance sheet is starting to “Weimar.”  Between mid-September 2019 and now, the size of the Fed’s balance has increased by $3 trillion dollars, or 81%.  The graph of the Fed’s balance sheet has gone vertical.  Gold is as cheap right now in relation to the money supply as it was in 1970 at $35 and in 2000 at $250.  Silver is historically cheap to gold.

Kenneth Ameduri invited me onto to his Crush The Street podcast to discuss the economy, oil and the precious metals sector:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Fiat Currency Race To Zero: The “Suddenly” Part Of The Story Approaches

“Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency…and the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.” … Alan Greenspan, ex-US Federal Reserve Chairman, August 23, 2011

The chart on the right shows the purchasing power of the dollar from when the Fed was founded to present. Pretty much self-explanatory but it’s why we buy and own physical gold. For now the price of gold has found resistance – likely official – in the high $1700’s.  But that will soon change as gold soars in response to what appears to be global Central Banks’ – led by the Federal Reserve – willingness to print unlimited quantities of paper currency in order to keep price (note: not “value”) of  financial assets elevated.

The overwhelming imperative to keep control of markets is a recipe for hyperinflation and will ultimately fail. The Fed would have us believe that the slump in business activity is only due to the coronavirus lockdown and that shortly after it ends normality will return. It will hope that we have forgotten that fully five months before the virus hit, it was forced to inject liquidity into the repo market at the rate of tens of billions every day.

The Fed’s monetary policy replicates John Law’s attempt to keep his bubble going in 1720 France. Law failed to maintain the price of just one asset, the Company of the Indies, his Mississippi venture, by printing livres to buy the shares. Within seven months the currency had collapsed and priced in worthless currency, the shares had fallen from 12,000 livres to just one or two thousand.

The principal upon which the Fed and the other major central banks are embarked is the same in every respect, but with a far larger task. The project will fail for the same reason: no one can fool all of the people all of the time. It is increasingly obvious that both the currency and financial asset values will collapse John Law-style, probably by the end of this calendar year, if precedents are any guide.

The passage above is from Aladair Macleod’s latest essay which explains in detail the process why fiat currencies will eventually become offered without a bid while, concomitantly, physical gold goes bid without offers:  Anatomy Of A Fiat Currency Collapse

Is The Comex On The Cusp Of Defaulting?

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked
“Two Ways,” Mike said. “Gradually then suddenly”
– Ernest Hemingway, “The Sun Also Rises”

And this could usher in the “suddenly” moment:  “The president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) called for a new super-sovereign currency to offset the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, which he predicted would decline long term, while gold prices rally.” – Reuters, April 28, 2020

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and I discuss the potential of a Comex default:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Cheap Oil And Money Printing: Rocket Fuel For Mining Stocks

“Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency…and the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry. It’s not for anything other than an escape from what is perceived to be a fiat money system, paper money, that seems to be deteriorating.” … Alan Greenspan, ex-US Federal Reserve Chairman, August 23, 2011

For now the price of gold has found resistance – likely official resistance – in the high $1700’s. I think there’s a good chance gold pops over $1800 before Memorial Day weekend, if not sooner. Silver continues to frustrate but the gold/silver ratio appears to be headed lower. Patience with silver will eventually be highly rewarded and rewarded in spades with the silver mining stocks.

Bill Powers of Mining Stock Education invited me to chat about oil, the economy, money printing and mining stocks:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Fed Lies And Money Printing: Rocket Fuel For Gold

For central banks, monetary inflation is everywhere the solution. Bank rescues, payment chain failures, the furloughing of millions of employees, helicopter money to bail out whole populations, money to bail out governments, money to support all categories of financial assets: the list is endless in scope and infinite in quantity. The survival of the global financial system is at stake. If it survives, state-issued money will have been destroyed. But then what is the point of owning financial assets valued in valueless currency?

While this process of monetary destruction would have reasonably been expected to evolve over time, the coronavirus has accelerated it. The fate of the $640 trillion derivative mountain recorded by the Bank for International Settlements is sealed and will be settled through bank bankruptcies and state-directed elimination. – Alasdair Macleod, The Looming Derivatives Crisis

Phil/John Kennedy hosted John Titus and me to try and untangle The Big Lie that is the Federal Reserve and the real reasons behind the Fed’s massive money printing program:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information