Category Archives: Gold

The Fed – Kicking People When They’re Down

“You [the public] are the sucker. Your role in the Federal Reserve System is to absorb losses [on the crappy assets the Fed buys off of bank and hedge fund balance sheets]…The Fed is there to facilitate your absorption of those losses and that’s going on right now…the taxpayer is going to eat the losses – not the bankers who will have already been paid to help the Fed collect the bad assets.”

My good friend and colleague, John Titus of Best Evidence productions, uses source documents from the Fed to explain how the Fed and the member banks are going to shift the enormous losses on bad credit market products to the taxpayer while the banks make huge fees assisting the Fed.

Gresham’s Law And The Gold And Silver Squeeze

“Bad money drives out good money.”  When Gresham put forth this proposition, sovereigns were diluting gold and silver coins with metals of lesser value yet the diluted coins were given the same value for legal tender purposes as the more pure coins. Gresham observed that the more pure coins were hoarded and the lesser value coins were used for trade.

Sound familiar?  Go find pre-1964 dimes, quarters and half-dollars and try to buy them for their legal tender value.  Pre-1964 silver coinage contains 90% silver.  Post-1964 silver coins are made from nickel and copper.  No one who holds pre-1964 coins would use them for their face value. They have disappeared from circulation. The melt-value of the silver in a 1963 quarter currently is $2.60.

The disappearance of gold bars from the LBMA and Comex is Gresham’s Law in action. Though the virus crisis exacerbated the problem, shortages were developing on both trading venues well before anyone heard of “coronavirus.”  As an example,  Russia dumped its Treasury bond holdings and used the dollars to buy gold for its Central Bank. China, which holds 12x more Treasuries than Russia held, has been slowly converting its dollar reserves into gold for several years.

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and I discuss the current developments on the Comex and LBMA in our latest weekly conversation:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

“Wanted to send through a note of thanks and support.

I felt in my gut that something was amiss with the markets a year or so ago and started reading up on sound money/macro. At that time I had most of my money in UK stocks but wanted a way out and a way into the metals. I needed guidance thus why I signed up to your short seller and mining journals.

Today I am way down on the mining stocks and somewhat down on physical silver and gold. But I have offset 80% or so of those paper losses with paper gains on a raft of put options on indexes and sector ETFs. I had limited options experience prior to these purchases.”   – Mike in the UK

The Comex Does Not Trade Gold

Unequivocally, gold does not trade on the Comex. The Comex trades paper gold derivatives. It is a futures and options exchange on which a small amount of 100 oz. gold bars change ownership each contract month. The transfer of title is facilitated by the creation of an electronic record called a “warrant.” But even these “warrants” which assign title to specific bars are derivatives. Presumably gold is “delivered” to the parties who stand for delivery (the “stopper”). But that “delivery” most commonly is the electronic transfer of a warrant from the entity short a paper gold contract to the entity who is long the same.

Because the CME and the CFTC do not place a limitation on the number of paper gold contracts – 100 ozs per contract – in relation to the amount of gold reported in Comex vaults – the price discovery function has been largely removed. As an example, as of Wednesday there were 489,955 open contracts representing 48.9mm ozs of gold, or 1531 tons (roughly 50% of the amount of gold annually produced globally). Lucky for the Comex, less than 1% of the open interest in any given month stands for delivery.

At the beginning of the contract “roll” period, there was well in excess of 200,000 April contracts open representing over 20 million ozs of gold. If 50% of these longs decided to stand for delivery because the Comex appears to be only entity with gold deliverable in quantities, not only would the gold determined to be free and clear of encumbrances and conforming to Comex delivery specs – i.e. “registered” gold – be wiped out but the entire Comex gold stock would be wiped out. But there’s just one problem. The “eligible” gold – gold not registered – belongs to someone else who does not want that gold loaned, leased or hypothecated.

If the Comex regulated the open interest such that the amount of open interest was tied to the amount of gold in Comex vaults – since theoretically eligible gold can be registered – the resultant introduction of price discovery would force the price of gold much higher – higher to a level at which the price functions to balance supply and demand – not paper supply/demand in the form of printed contracts – but physical supply/demand based on the amount of gold sitting in Comex vaults as reported by the Comex vault operators. Given that apparently there’s not much gold in London and a massive imbalance between paper gold and physical gold on the Comex, it would likely require a significantly higher gold price to balance the physical gold supply and demand.

Currently a run on Comex gold appears to be starting, notwithstanding the Comex’s attempt to kick this can down the road with the use of Exchange For Physicals (EFPs) and Privately Negotiated Transactions (PNTs). But EFPs/PNTs are nothing more than second order derivatives created to sidestep the delivery of Comex bars. In fact the EFPs were used largely to transfer the settlement liability of a Comex contract to the LBMA.

Physical gold thus in fact does not trade on the Comex. Rather, the Comex is nothing more than a derivatives exchange with a small amount of physical gold relative to the notional value of the derivatives created.

As with the rest of the paper Ponzi schemes created by the banks and Central Banks, the Comex’s derivatives house of cards has always been fated to collapse. Based on all indications plus the signs of desperation emanating from the Comex and the LBMA, the collapse has begun. This will ultimately lead to much higher prices for gold and silver. Note: this situation started to unfold well before the virus crisis.

The Comex And LBMA: Paper Gold On Steroids

I truly thought I had seen all that was possible in the creation of paper gold when the Comex rolled out its “pledged gold” category which enabled technically insolvent banks like HSBC and JP Morgan – the only two Comex banks to have taken advantage of this new gold derivative product – to use paper gold to satisfy the performance bond requirement of CME clearing members.

But now the LBMA and CME operators have rolled yet another paper gold derivative productive in the hopes that the two entities can stave off defaulting on futures and forward contractual delivery requirements.  The Accumulated Certificates of Exchange (“ACE”) facilitates the “fractional” delivery of a 400 oz gold bar.

There’s just one minor problem with this set-up.  According to the Cambridge Dictionary, the word “delivery” is defined as:  “the act of taking goods, letters, packages, etc. to people’s houses or places of work.” To me this means if I want delivery of the 100 oz bar of gold for which I contracted, I would like to have the 100 ozs deposited in the location of my choice so that I can possess the gold bar for which I paid upfront.  In effect, the Comex has technically defaulted on the contractual terms of the 100 oz Comex futures contract.

Ronan Manly of Bullionstar.com has written an excellent analysis of this new paper gold derivative scheme:

And just like that, when you thought bullion bankers and their frontmen, the CME and LBMA, could not create even more paper gold, they just went ahead and did. And it gets better, since according to the CME:

“Once issued, ACEs can be held as long as necessary. A client can use ACEs to comply with short delivery requirements (1 ACEs reflecting one futures contract of 100 oz) or it can be swapped back against a 400 oz bar by exchanging 4 ACEs. A customer can comply with delivery requirements with ACEs or regular bars, or a combination of both.”

Here’s his entire article:   Comex delivery problems.

It’s only a matter of time before the markets wake to this reality. At that moment we will see the $100-$200 or more daily moves in gold that many have discussed as an eventuality.

The Shortage Of LBMA Bars Persisted Before Coronavirus

I found it amusing that Zerohedge tried to take credit for reporting the problem of a physical gold shortage on the LBMA and Comex earlier last week. Several of we “gold bugs” have been discussing and reporting on this issue since before the virus crisis exploded. The Comex has been settling contracts that stand for deliver through EFT and PNT transactions by which the counterparty accepts cash payment or the transfer of the Comex obligation to London for several months.

GATA’s Chris Powell expounded on this in a must-read essay on Friday: “What the heck are those mysterious ‘exchange for physicals,’ the mechanisms by which contracts to buy gold on the New York Commodities Exchange are neither fulfilled by delivery on the Comex nor settled for cash there but transported for supposed delivery elsewhere?

The mechanism long has been incorporated by the Comex trading system but was described as an “emergency” procedure undertaken upon agreement by buyer and seller — except that the use of this “emergency” procedure has exploded in the last year, involving tens of thousands of contracts and, nominally, hundreds of tonnes of gold.” Gold Traders Paid Not To Redeem Comex EFPs

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and hash out this issue in our latest podcast:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

“I felt in my gut that something was amiss with the markets a year or so ago and started reading up on sound money/macro. At that time I had most of my money in UK stocks but wanted a way out and a way into the metals. I needed guidance thus why I signed up to your short seller and mining journals.

Today I am way down on the mining stocks and somewhat down on physical silver and gold. But I have offset 80% or so of those paper losses with paper gains on a raft of put options on indexes and sector ETFs. So, thank you for your journals and keep up the excellent work.” – Mike, who subscribes to both journals

Stimulus Bill Gives The Banks $454 Billion In Taxpayer Bailout Money

The Government and the Federal Reserve are exploiting the virus crisis to implement another bailout – or attempted bailout – of the “Too Big To Fail Banks.”  The stimulus Bill approved 96-0 by the Senate gives the Fed a $454 billion taxpayer funded “slush fund” for Wall Street bailouts. Just as troubling, the Bill suspends the Freedom Of Information Act for the Fed until the earlier of the time at which Trump terminates the National Emergency declaration or December 31, 2020.

The latter provision means that the Fed can conduct meetings in secret,  is not under any circumstances required to disclose the meeting details to the public  and it does not have to keep a record of notes.   The public will never know how its $454 billion was spent or which banks and hedge funds (or individuals?) were the recipients of this taxpayer largess.

Wall Street On Parade takes a look at the implications of economic bailout Bill so far passed by the Senate.  It remains to be seen if this secrecy provision will be challenged by the House but I’m not hopeful.  You can read more on this here:  Wall Street On Parade

The Virus Crisis Exposed The Financial Markets’ Black Hole

The biggest bill of sale sold to the public after the great financial crisis was that the legislation enacted forced the banks to maintain a higher level of integrity in their business dealings. But nothing could be further from the truth. The various pieces of legislation enacted after the 2008 de facto banking system collapse ultimately made it easier for the TBTF banks to move their fiat currency-based Ponzi scheme off-balance-sheet.

Over the last 10 years a massive Rube Goldberg credit market black hole has formed. Point of note: the Fed is injecting printed money into the banking system at a faster rate now than at any time after 2008.

While the coronavirus to be sure is the “black swan” that pricked the stock bubble, market forces eventually would have accomplished the same result. The Fed started bailing out the banking system in September, printing half a trillion dollars to save the banks well before anyone had ever heard of coronavirus or Covid-19. As it turns out, the Fed was also bailing out hedge funds. Powell knew back in September that a massive credit problem was starting to bubble up.

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and I try to put some context on the current market crisis that was triggered by coronavirus but was an eventuality anyway:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

“Thank you – your research saved my finances!!! Your approach to OTM puts really worked for me. I like it when those red put positions turn from red to green in Trader Workstation – and all of a sudden – these puts are in the money! It already happened with CVNA, Citigroup, CACC, FICO, GS, JBHT, LGIH, SHAK, W, TOL, MXI – and I am almost in the money with SHOP, FICO! You turned upcoming crisis into an opportunity for me!” – Short Seller and Mining Stock Journal subscriber, “Philip”

Helicopter Money Will Send Gold Soaring…

Fiat justitia ruat caelum – Let justice be done though the heavens fall

…and the current gold/silver ratio indicates silver will soar even more.

Central Banks and sovereign Governments have been given a free pass to print money and bail out the banking, hedge fund and corporate interests from catastrophically hopeless loan, bond, subprime asset and derivative positions. The coronavirus crisis will be fingered as the culprit but market forces would have forced a financial collapse eventually anyway (see 2008 for the playbook). While the helicopter money will bail out the real perpetrators, it will also effect insidious currency devaluation aka inflation.

Chris Powell at GATA posted a must-read essay on the systemic effect of the impending acceleration of Central Bank printing presses:

“The success of a system of infinite money requires infinite commodity price suppression to defend government currencies. Gold price suppression has been Central Bank policy since the London Gold Pool of the 1960s.  But not only are government currencies becoming harder to defend amid the dislocations caused by the virus epidemic, governments no longer may want to defend their currencies so much.  They want to reflate asset valuations. But even before the virus epidemic, equities and bonds already were highly overvalued by traditional measures, and how can they be worth as much as they were now that world production is declining? Only devaluation of currencies can accomplish reflation.”

You can read the entire essay here: “As infinite money chases collapsing production, gold is on call

Extreme Disconnect Between Paper And Physical Gold

“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it” – George Orwell

The western Central Banks, led by the BIS, are operating to push the price of gold and silver as low as possible.  It’s a highly motivated effort to remove the proverbial canary from the coal mine before it dies.  A soaring price of gold signals to the world that the Central Banks have lost control of their fiat currency, debt-induced profligacy.

“In the last 10 years,” George said, “the central banks have effectively shown that when there is a real crisis, gold actually goes down — and it’s so blatant, it’s a joke.” – Peter George, South Africa’s “Mister Gold,” at 2005 GATA conference

The signs of massive intervention abounded last week:   record levels of PNT and EFP transactions;  aggressive interventionary gold swap transactions by the BIS in January/February (per the monthly BIS statement of operations) – and presumably this month as well;  and a big physical dump of gold last Thursday at the p.m. London gold price fix which knocked down the gold price. These opaque Central Bank operations thereby triggered even more paper selling on the Comex.

The most overt signal of the disconnect between the physical and paper markets is coming from large international bullion coin dealers. I have seen three letters from large dealers (BullionStar, JM Bullion and SD Bullion) which detail shortages and an inability to replace what’s being sold.   Here’s insightful commentary from BullionStar sent out over the weekend:

“The bullion supply squeeze and shortages are getting worse and worse every day. We are working very hard to source metal but regret that we can not replenish most products as they sell out. We will be getting some additional inventory which is already on the way in transit to us by the end of March. Following that, our expectation is that we may not be able to replenish for months…

Paper gold is traded on the and on the in New York. Both of these markets are derivative markets and neither is connected to the physical gold market…By now it is abundantly clear that the physical gold market and paper gold market will disconnect. If the paper market does not correct this imbalance, widespread physical shortages of precious metals will be prolonged and may lead to the entire monetary system imploding.” – Torgny Persson, founder & CEO of BullionStar

The removal of supply/demand price discovery by the oppressive manipulation of gold and silver in the paper derivative markets has created a shortage in the availability of physical metal, with buyers currently willing pay 50% above the spot price of silver.

This is highly reminiscent of the price take-down that occurred in 2008, a few months head of Helicopter Ben launching his money helicopters AND the massive taxpayer bailout of the big banks.  Back then silver eagles were trading at 50-60% over the spot price. This preceded the remarkable 2 1/2 year price rally in gold and silver that took gold up to an all-time high.

Historically, official induced market intervention fails. And when it fails, it fails spectacularly.  Gold ran from $700 to $1900 and silver ran from $7 to $49 between late 2008 and mid-2011, before the bullion banks were able to gain control of  the price discovery mechanism.  This time around the systemic problems – notwithstanding the virus crisis – are far worse than the problems that erupted in 2008.

Barring some type of systemic debt and monetary reset – and I have no idea what something like that would look like –  gold and silver will eventually be trading several multiples higher than their current price.