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What The Heck Did Janet Yellen Just Say?

The Federal Reserve members seem intent and content to make fools of themselves with continuous threats to raise interest rates. Some of them seem to discharge the “rate hike next meeting” utterance regularly as if they have Turret’s Syndrome. And yet, when the rubber meets the road, there’s no change in monetary policy.

And then there’s Janet Yellen.  She becomes more pathetic with every public appearance. Today one of the CNBC goons asked her if the Fed has a credibility problem.  If you can make sense of her answer please explain it to me.  I really hope she was starting to trip on LSD someone might have slipped into her coffee because her response is nothing more than unintelligible utterances (as quoted from Zerohedge.com):

Well, let me start — let me start with the question of the Fed’s credibility. And you used the word “promises” in connection with that. And as I tried to emphasize in my opening statement, the paths that the participants project for the federal funds rate and how it will evolve are not a pre-set plan or commitment or promise of the committee. Indeed, they are not even — the median should not be interpreted as a committee-endorsed forecast. And there’s a lot of uncertainty around each participant’s projection. And they will evolve. Those assessments of appropriate policy are completely contingent on each participant’s forecasts of the economy and how economic events will unfold. And they are, of course, uncertain. And you should fully expect that forecasts for the appropriate path of policy on the part of all participants will evolve over time as shocks, positive or negative, hit the economy that alter those forecasts. So, you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy. And as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth — for growth in the global economy outside the United States, and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. And those changes in financial conditions and in the path of the global economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants in what path is appropriate to achieve our objectives. So that’s what you see – that’s what see now.

Say what?  That’s not what I see.  What I see is pathetic pscycho-babble from a human with dementia settling in…

For an interesting take on the FOMC policy announcement today, Eric Dubin at The News Doctors posted a  discussion between Peter Schiff (Euro Pacific Capital) and Andy Brenner (Guggenheim Partners) that’s worth watching if you don’t care to watch the NCAA hoops tournament play-in games:  Peter Schiff/Andy Brenner On Today’s FOMC Meeting.

A Collision Is Coming In Securitized Auto Debt

Delinquencies on subprime auto debt packaged into securities reached a high not seen since October 1996, as late payments continued to worsen in February, according to Fitch Ratings.Bloomberg News

The Fed and the Obama Government inflated a massive bubble in automobile sales (among all the other bubbles). Over 30% of all auto loans over the past few years have been of the subprime variety. Not just “subprime” per se, but absolute nuclear waste. Low credit score borrowers have been able to buy used cars with loan terms well beyond 5 years AND loan-to-value amounts far greater than 100% of the assessed NADA used car value.

It’s an absolute disaster waiting to happen. Fitch of course puts a positive spin on the ticking time bomb by stating that it expects the payment rate to improve in the coming Untitledmonths as tax refunds kick in. Only there’s a problem with this assertion – where are the tax refunds? Not only that, many taxpayers have been taking advantage of the available of tax refund anticipation loans: Tax Refund Advances Are Back. Sorry Fitch, a lot of that tax refund money is already spent. And guess what? Your beloved sub-prime auto CLO’s are now subordinated to the Tax Anticipation Debt.

Yesterday’s retail sales report from the Government reflects an economy in which the consumer is quickly losing its ability to spend money:

Constraining retail sales activity, the consumer remains in an extreme liquidity bind…Without sustained growth in real income, and without the ability and/or willingness to take on meaningful new debt in order to make up for the income shortfall, the U.S. consumer has been unable to sustain positive growth in domestic personal consumption dependent on personal spending. – John Williams, Shadowstats.com

The developing crash in subprime auto debt is just the tip of the iceberg and it will fuel a Untitlednegative feedback loop that will include a collapse in general consumption spending other than for necessities and an eventual implosion in mortgages. Just like the auto market, the mortgage market – aided and abetted by the Fed and the Government – has enabled a massive reflation of subprime mortgages disguised as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA low down payment, low credit score Government-backed home loans. While we’re on the topic. If you want to get a home loan, you may want to run a comparison to see which loans offer the best rates of interest-based on the amount you need! You could find out more here – https://www.iselect.com.au/home-loans/ for further information and support.

Perhaps this is why the inventory of both existing home listings and new homes are beginning to pile up like, well, a slow-motion car wreck…

The SEC Should Suspend VRX Trading: The Company Smells Like Enron

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) stock has plunged 86% since August 6. The latest plunge occurred today, with the stock losing 51% from its close of $78 yesterday (click to enlarge):

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The initial triggers were concerns over the Valeant’s drug-pricing policies and questions surrounding its methodology for booking revenues. However, with just a casual “look under the hood” at VRX’s SEC-filed financials, there is likely a great deal of fraud lurking beneath what’s already been questioned. In fact, this is starting to smell a lot like Enron or Bear Stearns.  The only component missing from this story is a CNBC rant from Cramer issuing a table-pounding buy on VRX stock.  That may yet occur.

To begin with,  the Company is carrying $30.2 billion in long term debt against just  $9 billion of tangible assets.  $39 billion of VRX’s assets is in the form of goodwill and intangibles.  VRX’s self-assessed book value is $6.4 billion.  But VRX’s tangible book value is negative $32.6 billion.

Goodwill is a nebulous concept that assigns value to the amount paid for an acquisition over and above the value of the assets acquired.  Often it’s nothing more than a “plug” number to account for the amount by which a Company like VRX overpays for an acquisition.  “Intangibles” are similar in that, in VRX’s case, it’s the value VRX has assigned to product brands, corporate brands, product rights, etc.  Both goodwill and intangible estimates are highly subjective and highly susceptible to judgement errors and fraud.   In just the 3rd quarter alone, VRX had to write-off $26 million of its intangible value related to its Zelapar drug because of declining sales.

The message the market is sending from the stunning collapse in VRX’s stock price is that something is very wrong with the Company.  It’s already on the ropes from allegations of fraudulent revenue booking practices and price-gouging.  Today the Company issued delayed and unaudited preliminary Q4 results which badly missed revenue and earnings estimates.

But that’s not the most troubling aspect.  On Feb 29 this year, VRX filed a notice with theUntitled1 SEC disclosing that it would be delaying the release of its 2015 10-K.  This is a big red flag, especially in the context of the accounting fraud allegations. This was followed by a reduction in 2016 earnings guidance the Company attributed to an “inadvertent error.”  But then the Company further lowered 2016 guidance with today’s unaudited Q4 earnings announcement.  Finally, the Company disclosed potential loan covenant violations that could lead to bond defaults.

If the SEC was in the business of protecting the individual investor, it would suspend trading in VRX’s stock because the frequent cliff-dive drops in the stock make it pretty clear that certain market participants have knowledge about the Company that is not being widely made available to the public.

I would suggest that given everything that has transpired in the VRX saga, there is some degree – if not a rampant amount – of fraud with this Company.  The stock price is signalling this:   VRX has the distinct odor of Enron or Bear Stearns coming from it.   Any investment advisor or institutional money manager who does not liquidate its holdings in this stock immediately is in breach of its fiduciary duty.  

SoT Market Update: Fed Market Intervention And Stock Market Fraud

The Shadow of Truth presents a “Market Update” in which we discuss the extreme fraud and deception that has engulfed the stock market – see below for our audio discussion:

The governments in my view, with their agents the Federal Reserve and other central banks and with the treasury department, they will do anything not to let asset prices go down…If the stock markets go down, I’m convinced all the central banks will buy stocks. All of them. – Mark Faber on CNBC

The S&P 500 has clawed back nearly 80% of its 250 plunge that occurred at the beginning of 2016.  The pervasive “muscle reaction” of mainstream investors is to behave as if the nascent bear market in stocks is already over and we’re headed to 30k on the Dow.  This tendency is epitomized by Cramer’s latest “c’mon on back in, the water is fine and stocks are cheap” declaration about a week ago.  This graphic below exemplifies the current  mainstream financial media narrative (sourced from Twitter with SoT edits) click to enlarge image:

This graph shows the number of stocks in the Russell 2000 index which have gained 50% Untitled11for more in the last month of trading since October.  As you can see, up until the current bear market dead-cat bounce, the market is “hot” when 20-30 stocks move up 50% in a month.  In the current market nearly 80 stocks have moved up in the last month.   This graph shows the omnipresent footprints of both the Plunge Protection Team and HFT trading.   It’s gotten to the point at which every time the stock market seems ready to sell-off hard, some sort of “invisible hand” comes in and scoops up stocks, driving the market back up.

The other highly fraudulent aspect of this market is the way earnings are reported. Companies now report GAAP and “non-GAAP” earnings.  The difference between the two presentation methods can be summed up as, “somewhat fake earnings” and “mostly fake earnings.”

UntitledIn 2015, 20 of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial index reported non-GAAP earnings.  For 18 of these 20, non-GAAP EPS was higher than GAAP.  On average, non-GAAP earnings were 31% higher than GAAP for these 20 companies.  In 2014, non-GAAP was 12% higher than GAAP for the non-GAAP reporting companies (FACTSET.COM)  This illustrates the degree to which companies are now going to disguise and/or fabricate their earnings.

As if to throw gasoline of the fire of fraud and deception which has engulfed our financial system, most large corporations are now borrowing money in order to buy back their shares.  This benefits no one except the insiders who receive huge stock-laden compensation packages and then turnaround and sell their stock into the company’s buyback program.  At its root, this is nothing more than a massive transfer of wealth from shareholders to insiders.  Why not just ask the shareholders to get out their checkbooks and send insiders a personal check instead?

 Here’s an idea for reform, which of course will never happen:  prohibit insiders from selling shares whenever a company has a shareholder buyback program in place.  But don’t hold your breath waiting for that to happen….

Official Intervention In The Gold Market Is Now Blatantly At Work

The damage done to gold on Friday was due to skillfully timed flash crashes rather than powerful selling.  – John Brimelow, JB’ Gold Jottings Report

As a wider audience of market observers becomes aware of the flagrant use of the paper gold market to manipulate the price of gold, the degree of intervention in the gold market by the Fed/Treasury becomes more openly aggressive.

Eric Dubin of the News Doctors wrote a useful commentary on the current effort by the “gold cartel” to take down the price of gold:

The cartel is acting aggressively this week on top of the mountain of paper-based gold issuance into the COMEX market they’ve been shoveling into the short side already – for weeks – in an effort to slow momentum. Now, as you see today, with traders getting nervous considering sky high commercial short positions and an FOMC meeting starting tomorrow, is it any wonder that the cartel was able to get some traction to the downside?

You can read the rest of his analysis here:  The News Doctors

 

The Economy And Stocks: Someone Is Smoking Crack

Privately compiled and reported economic indicators started rolling over in 2012, which is why the Fed continued to “re-up” its money printing. With most S&P 500 companies having now reported Q4 2015 earnings, there’s been four consecutive years of declining net income – both GAAP and “non-GAAP.” If I had told you two years ago that the S&P 500 revenues and earnings would decline but that stock prices would continue higher, you would have asked me if I was smoking crack.  –  Short Seller’s Journal

A big driver of the economy for the last four years has been the auto and housing markets. While it may not be evident in some areas yet, both sectors of the economy are starting to seize up.

Auto sales in February missed analysts’ forecasts and were down from January.  Not mentioned in the still-bullish reports was the fact that GM’s and VW’s sales declined, while Ford’s jump in sales was driven by a big bulge in rental fleet sales.  Note to crackheads: rental fleet sales are not the best measure of the demand for autos.  At the same time, new car inventories at dealers soared to a 14-year high.    With subprime auto loan delinquencies beginning to spike up, along with repo rates, on whom will the dealer/lending syndicate unload all this inventory?

Similarly, the housing market in previously red-hot areas is starting to fizzle, led by a rapid escalation in listings in the higher end of the market.  Housing market expert Mark Hanson describes the popping bubble in Silicon Valley:  Tech-Head Housing Cities Seizing Up.  This article describes the collapsing Houston housing market:  Oil crash is crushing Houston’s housing market.   The virus popping Houston’s real estate bubble is now spreading throughout Texas.   Miami’s market was white hot for a few years.  Of course, as is par for the course, Miami is now perilously overbuilt:  Miami’s Epic Condo Boom Turns Into Glut. That same market condition is hitting the southwest coast of Florida, as a flood of existing home listings are helping the continuous  “price reduced” notices chase the market lower.

The same scene is now starting to play out in many major MSA’s – NYC, Washington DC/northern Virginia, etc.  While the lower end of the market is still somewhat firm in many areas because the Government is proliferating the availability of low credit rating subprime nuclear mortgages to first-time buyers who can barely afford a pot to piss in, the upper-middle and high end of the housing market is being perilously flooded with listings. In one high-end enclave south of Denver that is averaging at least one listing over $800k per block, a friend of mine who lives near there asks:  “who is going to buy these homes?”

Not only is the stock market not even remotely discounting the underlying economic reality, but the S&P 500 spent the last four weeks clawing back 78% of the 249 point (12%) drop that occurred just after New Year’s despite the continued plethora of increasingly negative economic reports.

At some point the Fed is going to lose its ability to jump-start the stock market with its monetary defibrillator.  There is a lot of money to be made taking the other side of NewSSJ Graphicwhomever is chasing stocks higher right now.   The Short Seller’s Journal will help you take advantage of the highly overvalued stock market with weekly ideas for shorting stocks.  Each issue includes exclusive market commentary, a minimum of two short-sell ideas plus strategies for using puts and calls.  Subscribers will also have free access to all future IRD short-sell research reports plus a discount to the Mining Stock Journal.   You can subscribe by clicking HERE or on the image to the right.

It’s Been A Seven-Year Bull Market In Fraud, Corruption And Insanity

Like everything else in our financial system, applying the term “bull market” to the stock market is a fraud. It hasn’t really been a bull market it’s been more like a b.s. market…what’s going to happen to this stock market is going to be far worse than what we saw in 2008.  –  per my conversation with Kerry Lutz on his Financial Survival Network show

Every day the U.S. stock market drops, the Propaganda Ministry in the U.S. blames China. Of course, it has nothing to do with the fact that the U.S. stock market is at least as insanely overvalued as China’s.   And underlying the U.S. stock market is an unprecedented degree of fraud and corruption.  Untitled

This graph to the right shows that China’s economic weakness is tied directly to a collapse in its exports to the U.S., the EU and Japan.  The E.U. and the U.S. are China’s two largest export markets.  Is it really China’s fault that the amount of goods being imported by these two markets has plummeted?

Obviously, the plunge in China’s exports can only be attributable to a steep decline in economic activity in the three countries represented in the graph above.  This is especially true given the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which makes Chinese good cheaper in dollar terms.

The truth is that the “bull market” in U.S. stocks is nothing more than bull market in money printing, credit creation, an unprecedented level of Central Bank intervention and extreme fraud.   Because of the ongoing and continuous market manipulation, predicting the timing on the next stock market collapse is impossible.

But as the Fed’s stock market “high-wire juggling act” continues, the valuation of the stock market becomes increasingly dislocated from the underlying economic and financial market fundamentals.  At some point the “gravity” from reality will engulf the stock market and “pull” it quickly back to earth.

You can hear my discussion with Kerry Lutz on his Financial Survival Network by clicking on this link:   Financial Survival Network

For ideas on how to take advantage of this highly overvalued stock market, click on the banner below (a Paypal account is not required):

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2008 Redux Times 10 Is Brewing

Using the “jobless claims” metric,  the financial media and snake oil salesmen would have us believe that the Government-compiled jobs market metrics indicate “sustained strength in the labor market that should further dispel fears of a recession”  – Reuters’ Animal Farm.

A reader asks:  “if the jobs market is so good why did my bilingual daughter, who graduated with a 3.8 GPA from Ga. Tech [Dr. Paul Craig Roberts’ undergrad school], not get a job offer for two months until someone I know hired her?”

A funny thing, those Government compiled, manipulated and propagated reports.  I answered with:   “She was fishing in the wrong fishing hole for jobs – she should have been sending her resume to Burger King and Starbucks.  But it sounds like the service sector is starting to shed jobs as well.  I honestly don’t know how they are coming up with their jobs reports.  As for the jobless claims, it makes sense that the claims are dropping like this.  As the labor force shrinks, especially the component that would qualify for jobless benefits, the number of people who file for jobless benefits shrinks, right?”

The first time I read “1984,”  I tried to imagine Orwell’s vision superimposed on the United States.  Now I don’t have to imagine.  Instead of Big Brother spying on us through our televisions (and they might through “smart” tvs), the Government monitors us through our cell phones, emails and web-browsing.  It’s truly frightening and it’s quite stunning how so few in this country understand – or are willing to accept – the degree to which it occurs on a daily basis.

While the Ministry of Propaganda spins its wheels convincing the public of a new bull market in stocks and a robust economic recovery are both in process – bolstered by a job market with more alleged openings than bodies willing to fill those alleged openings – the underlying structure of the economic and financial system is quickly rotting away.

Zerohedge reports today that the yield spread between 2-yr and 30-yr Treasuries is at its lowest (the difference between the yield on the 2yr Treasury and the 30yr Treasury) since its low-point in 2008 – A Flat Yield Curve Spells Recession.  There’s yet another comparison between 2008 and now.

The fundamental problems which caused the 2008 de facto financial collapse were never fixed.  Instead, they were “treated” with money printing and the massive expansion of credit.  While this enabled the operators benefiting from these subtle and insidious this wealth transfer mechanisms, it also seeded the next big systemic earthquake, which has the potential to be 10x worse than 2008.

Notwithstanding the Fed’s omnipresent intervention in the interest rate markets (Treasuries, repos, Fed funds and interest rate swap derivatives), the Fed has been unable to prevent a “flattening” of the yield curve.   A flat yield curve is the Treasury market’s signal that the U.S. is going into a recession.  Without that Fed intervention the Treasury would be inverted, a market event that verifies a deep recession in process.

While treating the problems with negative interest rates, money printing, debt creation and the continuous effort to systematically control the markets may temporarily cover up the symptoms of the underlying problems,  it is analogous to rubbing Neosporin on melanoma.  Eventually that cancerous mole will manifest as untreatable lymphoma.

The U.S. economic and political system is on the verge of a systemic disruption that will make life difficult for the entire population.  It’s anyone’s guess when the catalyst hits that pushes that button, but the force with which the next 2008 times 10 hits will likely even shock and awe those of us who can see that something ugly is about to hit.

The U.S. Economy Is Headed Into A Deep Recession

A reader contacted me earlier today after seeing the absurd article on the Wall Street Journal heralding in the “7-year bull market” in stocks:

Absolutely amazing they can put out crap like this:   “Still, with GDP growth expected to be 2.3% this year, according to a group of more than 60 economists surveyed by the Journal, market strategists project the current bull market has more room to run.”  The WSJ editors just lost all credibility they may have had with that end to the article. How could they find more than 60 delusional [or shill] economists that all say the sky will be blue for years?  I’m tired of worrying for myself and my family. Where can I find what they are smoking? Must be some really good hopium.

It has not been a seven-year “bull market” in stocks or housing prices, it  has been the biggest bull market in money printing and credit creation in history.

While the media clowns and Wall Street shills celebrate the seven year “bull market” in stocks, the fundamentals underlying the U.S. economic and financial system continue to deteriorate – quickly.

The most recent economic activity “end zone” dance was over February’s domestic auto sales, which seem to be occurring at an all-time high when viewed on an “annualized rate” basis.  Of course, no one wanted to discuss the fact that Ford’s sales would have been flat or negative if their huge jump in rental fleet deliveries were stripped out of their numbers.  GM’s sales were down slightly, and dealer inventories continue to balloon.

What’s worse, subprime auto loan delinquencies are spiking up to their 2008 pre-financial collapse level (click to enlarge):

UntitledIt’s no secret that the banks have been willing to extend to auto loans to anyone who can fog a mirror.  Credit score is largely irrelevant and there’s no requirement to show proof of income.

The prelude to the 2008 de facto financial system collapse, washed by trillions in QE and added credit, is now starting to repeat again.  An article in the Wall Street Journal (source: Zerohedge) is reporting that used car prices are headed lower again.   With over 32% of all car “sales” accounted for by leases, as these cars come off lease and flood the used car system, prices fall.  This in turn affects the amount for which someone with a used car can get paid in order to “buy” a new car.  Add that inventory to the already sky-high repo inventory, and the auto sector is set-up for a huge “pile-up” crash.   But go ahead and just conveniently ignore the record level new car inventory sitting on dealer lots…

Meanwhile, the wholesale trade “gap” – the difference between the level of wholesaler Untitledinventory and sales – is now at a record level.  Furthermore the wholesale inventory to sales ratio has spiked up to its late summer 2008 level (click to enlarge):

This ratio is spiking up from both excessive inventory accumulation at the wholesaler level of the distribution system and declining sales of this inventory to the retail sector, reflecting weak consumer spending and an outlook for continued weak consumer spending.

What’s perhaps the biggest factor contributing to what I believe is a rapid deterioration in economic activity?  “Americans are buried under a mountain of debt:”  LINK  Per findings in the article from Gallup:  “The amount of debt Americans carry is staggering and grows every day.”

The “celebration” of the seven year “bull market” is emblematic of the degree to which propaganda is being used to cover up the truth.   If you give me a printing press to print money or an ability to issue an unlimited amount of credit, I can make any object increase in value.  The big run-up in the stock market and home prices and in auto sales was enabled by $4.5 trillion in printed money from the Fed and the enabling of an insane amount of credit creation, including derivatives which are nothing more than another form of credit.

When this hits a wall – and I think the gold market action is telling us that the collision is occurring or is imminent – it will cause a systemic upheaval that will make 2008 look like a civilized tea party.  

Jim Cramer Needs To Be Shut Down And Investigated For Illegal Stock Promotion

“No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”  –  Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” on March 11, 2008.

Three days later, on March 14, Bear Stearns stock plunged 92% after it was taken “under” by JP Morgan.

Today Cramer has made the claim on CNBC that “a lot of the bear markets have ended since February 10.”  According to Cramer, apparel, restaurants, iron ore and machinery groups are now in bull markets.  “C’mon in retail  stock trading minnows, the water is nice and warm.”

This assertion is just ludicrous.  For starters, we know from hard industry data released a little over a week ago – LINK – that the service sector – i.e. restaurants and retail-oriented businesses – are now shedding employees.  If a new bull market in consumption were born, service businesses that rely on middle class disposable income expenditures would be hiring, not firing.

Clearly Cramer completely neglects the fiduciary duty to conduct appropriate due diligence before issuing investment advice.   Because if he actually rolled up his sleave and did some work, he would have found the middle class is sinking in a sea of debt.  Sorry Jim, imminent personal bankruptcy is not conducive to disposable income-based consumption.

Currently a proposed rule issued by the Department of Labor would raise the bar on the investment advisory industry’s standards of fiduciary duty. “Fiduciary duty” is a legal duty to act solely in another parties’ interests.  Naturally Congress, funded by CNBC and Suze Orman, Inc are working overtime to oppose this rule.

Using the Bear Stearns case as an example, Cramer was advising his viewers to hold their Bear Stearns stock.  But was he acting in the viewers’ interests?   More likely, Cramer’s hedge fund cronies were busy unloading their positions in Bear Stearns as quickly as possible before that Titanic hit the iceberg.

I did an analysis of Bear Stearns in January 2008 and concluded that Bear was technically insolvent.  I shorted the stock in the low $80’s and managed to cover in the $30’s.  Cramer is a complete idiot if he truly thought Bear Stearns was a viable going concern.  In the absence of a willingness to believe that Cramer is a moron given his educational background,  the obvious conclusion is that Cramer is exceedingly corrupt.

What will it take for the Justice Department to investigate Cramer and all of his off-CNBC dealings?  My colleagues and I have known for well over a decade that Cramer is little more than a front for the hedge fund community.  Cramer is the Wall Street version of Hillary Clinton.  He’s gotten away with committing egregious crimes for so long that he likely  is unable to differentiate between legal and illegal.  Rule of Law, what’s that?   Cramer should not be on CNBC issuing pump and dump recommendations, many of which end up badly impaling retail stock investors.  Instead, Cramer should be busy defending himself from a bona fide SEC/Dept of Justice inquiry into his operations.

Cramer also pumped up the infamous “FANGS”  today.  He singled out AMZN just because Piper Jaffray and Wells Fargo both said AMZN was “doing much better than people think?” Based on what, Jim?   “Fiduciary duty” is not defined as parroting comments issued by retail brokerage firms who’s business is predicated on selling overvalued stocks to retail pigeons.

AMZN stock has been up as much as $9 today because of Cramer’s pump and dump call plus the fact that AMZN debuted its online streaming fashion show to promote its new clothing line.  Hey there’s an original idea, use the broadcast media to stage a mock fashion show in order to sell clothing.  Why didn’t QVC and Home Shopping Network think of that?

If AMZN’s clothing line business is like nearly every other business line of AMZN’s, it will sell it’s clothing for less than the cost of producing and delivering the product to the end-user.  QVC trades at a 13 p/e.  If AMZN does not make money on its clothing business, at what multiple of zero should AMZN’s clothing business be worth?  Currently AMZN’s $9 Cramer spike has melted into a loss of 23 cents.  Did you get some of your buddies out on that, Jim?

For original analysis and long term and short term short-sell trading ideas, check out the Short Seller’s Journal.  Last week several subscribers made between 50-200% on a “quick hit” short sell trade idea on Big Five (BGFV) that I emailed out them on Monday mid-day. (click on image to subscribe)Untitled