Tag Archives: Comex

Gold And Silver Are Set Up For A Huge Move

“There is a growing recognition that the much-heralded V-shaped recovery is not going to happen beyond a temporary recovery following lockdowns. That being the case, the Fed is committed to unlimited monetary inflation, which is already undermining the dollar, the trade weighted version of which continues to decline.” – Alasdair Macleod, Goldmoney.com

Institutional investors have maybe 0.5% of their assets invested in the precious metals sector. At the peak of the gold/silver in 1980 institutions had 5% invested in the precious metals sector. Since then that allocation has not been above 1%. Eventually a monster move is coming in silver and the mining stocks, though no one can say when it will occur.

The catalyst for the move will be large institutional and wealthy investors reallocating cash from the stock market in general into mining stocks. I believe Buffet was a harbinger of that even though he only bought a small amount of Barrick in relation to the size of Berkshire’s assets.

The overrbought condition that developed in July/early August is now neutral/oversold per the RSI and MACD indicators. Yesterday gold bounced off its 50 day moving average. Technically gold (and silver) is set up for a bullish move.

In addition, based on the data from India which reflects gold import activity (from John Brimelow’s Gold Jottings report), India started importing dore bars Monday and soon will be importing kilo bars. India has been absent for the last three weeks.

September through December is the seasonal period when India imports its most gold on an annual basis. This will have the  effect of exacerbating the already tight supply of gold available for delivery to buyers who demand actual physical delivery rather than leaving purchased gold in bank custodial vaults.  A groomsman in India dare not show up to a wedding with just a receipt for gold purchased to give to his bride.

Chris Powell (GATA.org) also pointed out several more factors that indicate the potential for a monster move in the precious metals and mining stocks:

— the smashdowns don’t work as they used to, seldom more than a couple of days;

— volatility in the metals has exploded;

— the geopolitical situation is growing more strained, not less;

— The U.S. and European economies are wrecks – the massive money printing directed at the deferral of financial and economic collapse functions as rocket fuel for gold/silver.

Furthermore, Chris points to the obvious indications that the supply of physical gold that can be delivered to entitled buyers on the Comex and the LBMA is exceptionally tight:

— The mechanics of the market: the rise and fall of EFPs, the sudden conversion of the Comex to physical off-take, the panicked dance between the LBMA and the Comex, the huge expansion of the Comex’s approved bar list, the failure of the Comex open interest to contract on falling prices, all of which suggest big underlying changes and increasingly tight supplies – whether one disagree’s or not with Andrew Maguire, he has been shouting for months that it’s impossible to get prompt delivery of metal in the LBMA system and is consistent with the unusual behavior exhibited by the CME/Comex and LBMA since April;

Finally, per the research of GATA consultant, Robert Lambourne, BIS intervention in the gold market on behalf of its member Central Banks is at its highest level in years and perhaps its highest level in history for the second month in a row (July and August).  Historically BIS gold swap activity has been suspiciously correlate with visible bullion bank efforts to prevent the price of gold from rising.

While the gold price was unable to sustain its move over $2,000 – for now – the overt price intervention efforts over the last 4 weeks has had, at best, limited success.  At some point this effort will fail.

Though it can’t be proved without access to the BIS records – and the BIS refuses to comment on its gold swap activities (as does the Fed) – it is thought by many who have evaluated the swap activity that the BIS uses this operation to make physical gold bars available to Central Banks for market interventions and delivery obligations.  Likely it is not a coincidence that for most of August both the a.m. and p.m. London price fixings have featured heavy offerings almost daily  which result in downward pricing pressure on gold.

All of the above factors lead me to conclude that there’s a high probability that the precious metals sector will stage a big move between now and the end of the year.

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A portion of the commentary above is from  the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal. You can learn more about  this newsletter by following this link:  Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks Are Just Getting Started

Eventually – and I want to emphasize “eventually” – the precious metals sector will do what the tech sector/Nasdaq is doing right now. That is to say will undergo a blow-off top that will take gold, silver and mining stocks to all-time highs.  The precious metals sector is far from this attribute of a blow-off top.  Any MSM financial media commentator who proclaims that the sector is in a bubble is either tragically ignorant or regurgitating official propaganda – probably a combination of both in every instance.

Bill Powers of Mining Stock Education and I chatted about the precious metals sector and why it’s still extraordinarily undervalued. I also suggest a couple of stocks that I particularly like right now:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

New Mining Stock Journal Subscriber: “This is a lot of value for $20 a month. Thank you so much!” – Jorgen

Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks Smell The Demise Of The Dollar

The news that Warren Buffet took a stake in Barrick Gold stimulated animal spirits in the precious sector on Monday. To be sure, this was a factor in the move on Monday. However the precious metals are starting to price in the next round of money printing by the Fed and the coming avalanche of new Treasury bonds, both of which will be considerable in quantity and serve to further devalue the U.S. dollar. On that note, the US dollar index tumbled below 93 on Monday. In addition, per the TIC report which shows the flow of international capital into and out of U.S. securities, foreign entities led by China dumped $20.6 billion worth of Treasury securities in June.

The message is clear: the Fed will need to be a large buyer of the upcoming Treasury bond issuance and the precious metals sector loves the smell of this.

Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss last week’s one-day price pullback in the precious metals sector and factors that will drive gold, silver and the mining stocks up to levels that may even surprise jaded goldbugs:

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Several of my junior and larger cap stock ideas have had huge moves higher. I will be discussing what to do with these stocks in the next few issues of my Mining Stock Journal plus presenting any new ideas I uncover that have yet to be widely discovered. You can learn more about Investment Research Dynamic’s newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

The Precious Metals Bull Market Is Beginning To Rage

The precious metals and mining stocks have a long way to go before this secular bull market is over. My view is that it will culminate with a global monetary reset that will re-incorporate gold/silver into the monetary system. The dollar-based price of gold and silver will end up at multiples of their current prices.

Silver Doctor’s Paul Eberhart invited me back on to his podcast to discuss the big move in the precious metals market, including whether or not the current investor sentiment is overly euphoric, the degree to which the mainstream media spits out anti-gold propaganda, the U.S. dollar and the general economy/stock market/Tesla (Silver Doctors):

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Several of my junior and larger cap stock ideas have had huge moves higher. I will be discussing what to do with these stocks in the next few issues of my Mining Stock Journal plus presenting any new ideas I uncover that have yet to be widely discovered. You can learn more about Investment Research Dynamic’s newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

What’s Going On With Silver?

Chris Marcus wanted my opinion about whether or not a silver “smash” was coming:  “I would never want to be as dogmatic as saying ‘never’ because anything can happen with a banking [and financial markets] system as corrupt as the one in the U.S.”

But silver is historically cheap as an asset in relation to the universe of dollar-based financial assets and relative to the dollar-value of gold.  Until the global monetary system is reset, gold and silver are going much higher price in ALL fiat currencies. As silver moves higher, there will be even more aggressive attempts to control its rise and this will entail higher volatility – both up and down but mostly up.

Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I examine this topic in our latest podcast and I draw from 20 years of experience in the precious metals sector including a 4-year span in the early 2000’s when I traded silver futures almost around the clock:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

Gold / Silver: Brief Pullback Then Higher

The market will always from time-to-time remind us that nothing goes straight up in the stock market. The mining stocks, especially the riskiest juniors, have had huge run since mid-March. The HGNSI (Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index) has been a remarkably reliable contrarian signal for mining stocks over the years. Sell/take profits when it moves above 60 and buy with both hands when it goes below 20.

The HGNSI has pushed up to 86% last week (86% of gold newsletters have buy recommendations). Mark Hulbert commented that “the HGNSI jumped today in concert with gold, and now stands at the 99.8th percentile of the distribution since 2000; the HGNSI’s current level represents extreme bullishness.” The latest reading (July 15th) is 76 – still too high to be aggressive with positioning.

A red flag for me is when a bullion bank like Goldman Sachs sticks a $2,000 price target on gold. Why $2,000? Why not $2,500? For me, the HGNSI and bullish price targets for gold from Wall Street banks after a big move has occurred already is a signal to take some profits or hedge my mining stock portfolio.

With the massive scale of fiat currency devaluation – aka money printing or “QE” – there’s an “invisible hand” of economics that seems to have, for now anyway, put a floor under the gold price. Add to that the enormous appetite for physical gold imports from India, which was the equivalent of waking up a starving elephant when quarantine restrictions were lifted, and any pullback for which I’m looking could be shallow and short-lived.

Chris Marcus (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss the gold market technicals. And I’ll go one up on Goldman and call for $2,000 gold before Labor Day:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

The Precious Metals Bull Market Is Just Revving Up

The monetary “gods” at the Federal Reserve have created the perfect monetary policy recipe to fuel gold, silver and mining stocks to new all-time highs and beyond. While the bubbleheads in the financial media have been garishly cheerleading the general stock market as it heads to an extreme overvaluation that will not end well, the mining stocks have outperformed the big three stock indices by a considerable margin.  As an example, since the March bottom, GDX is up over 100%, while the Nasdaq Composite is up 51.6% and the SPX is up 40%. And the mining stocks are just getting warmed up.

Relative to the prices of gold and silver, the mining stocks are still extraordinarily undervalued. In 2011 when gold peaked at $1900, the HUI index was trading over 600. It just recently crossed over 300.

Bill Powers of Mining Stock Education and I discuss the bullish set-up for the precious metals sector, including the gold/silver ratio, specific junior mining stocks and a couple other timely topics:

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You can learn more about the Mining Stock Journal by following this link:   MSJ Subscription Info.  In the next issue released July 9th I discuss several of the stocks I follow, recommend and in which I invest, capital management strategies and I present a junior exploration “venture capital” idea that has the potential to be a 5-bagger from its current level.

Comex Data Shows The Potential For A Run On Gold And Silver

The last few delivery periods for gold and silver on the Comex have experienced a record number of longs standing for delivery. For gold, April’s record was topped by June’s record. Sandwiched in between these to “front month” contracts was a record amount of gold “delivered” in May (May is a non-front month contract). July silver appears right now to be headed for a record number of “deliveries.”

I put “deliveries” in quotes because a large majority of the entities which stand for “delivery” never remove their bars from the Comex vaults. For all we know the banks are using unallocated bars, or even bars that don’t exist, to satisfy the terms of the “deliveries.” That said, if the stoppers (the entities that take “delivery”) begin in large numbers to remove their bars from Comex vault custody and move the bars to alternative safekeeping, the potential exists to cause a run and eventual default on the Comex.

Chris Marcus and I discuss this topic in our latest weekly podcast:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

“Major Battle Underway In The Gold Market”

The chart (and blog title) above is from James Turk via King World News. Turk was making the point that the western Central Banks, via the bullion banks, are short $4 billion worth of paper gold on the Comex. With all of the Central Bank money printing, and the Fed is by far printing the most, it would be a disaster for the fiat currency system if the price of gold were to break free and rediscover price discovery. It’s only a matter of time until this occurs. But for now the Central Banks are making a concerted effort to do what they do best: defer reality for as long as possible.

For now the goal is to prevent gold from breaking above $1800, which means the invisible “battle line” is at $1790. I remember when gold was trying to get over $400. It seemed like it took forever. But once $400 fell (shortly after Elliot Wave aficionado, Robert Prechter, proclaimed gold was going back to $50), it didn’t take long for gold to double (about 18 months). I think once gold gets through $1800 and holds, it will challenge the all-time high at $1900 relatively quickly. For as bullish as I am on gold, I’m 3x more bullish on silver.

A subscriber was concerned about the possibility of the miners getting hit hard in the next general stock market crash. I suspect the miners will get hit initially but then stage a rally. But that’s why I advise always leaving yourself plenty of cash to take advantage of big sell-offs that will likely recover quickly and take the market higher.

We’re in an ideal period of time for gold/silver to move higher with all of the money printing and concomitant currency devaluation. As gold/silver move higher the mining stocks will eventually catch a big bid from the mainstream investing public and soar. Look at how quickly the mining stocks recovered from the March massacre. (And from the Thursday/Friday morning price slam as the Comex was opening).

NOTE: The commentary above is from the last issue of my Mining Stock Journal subscription newsletter. In this issue I provide any updates and recommendations on my core portfolio recommendations.  I also provide a brief review of Vizsla Silver ($VIZSF) and Mako Mining ($MAKOF).  You can learn more about my newsletter here:   Mining Stock Journal

The Money Printing Road To Perdition – Got Gold?

Where’s the “V?” – Obviously the Fed has injected monetary cocaine into the stock market to make it appear as if stocks are “discounting a “V” economic recovery.  But a “V” on Main Street is nowhere to be found (graphic is from Crescat Capital -the comment bubble is my edit):

The chart above plots the NY Fed’s weekly index of economic activity (red line) vs. the Bloomberg U.S. financial conditions index, which attempts to measure the relative strength of the bond, equity and money markets (white line). With the amount of money the Fed has injected into the financial system, it’s no surprise that the financial conditions index is soaring. However, as I’ve suggested in recent issues, this money is having little, if any, effect on real economic activity.

Compounding the insanity of the current market valuations is the fact that no one has any idea just how bad the economic damage has been from the shutdown of the economy and the virus crisis. We won’t know for several months the degree to which unemployment and overall economic activity will recover. Certainly this idea that there will be a full recovery by the end of the summer (per several White House officials) is completely foolish.

The economic numbers that appear positive are merely a “statistical” bounce attributable to the “re-opening” during May from the highly depressed state of the economy during the lock-down period. But household debt delinquencies – credit card, auto and mortgage – continue to rise, while there’s little evidence that the majority of those who lost their jobs will be re-employed any time soon, if ever.  What will be the effect on the economy when unemployment benefits expire for a large portion of those receiving them now and who can not find a job?

The Fed asserts that its money printing is necessary to restore economic health.  But this is poorly disguised Orwellian propaganda.  Most of the Fed’s money printing has been used to keep the Too Big To Fail banks from choking to death on subprime and non-performing “assets,” such as leveraged loans to the retail and oil sectors, CLO liabilities and counter-party exposure from OTC derivatives (credit default swaps, primarily).  The resumption of money printing in September 2019 is evidence of that assertion. The rest of the printed money is funding the enormous load of new Treasury issuance.

Gold hit a new eight-year high today. This comes interestingly on the heels of escalating tensions with China. Trump likely does not understand this, but China holds several aces up its sleeve which can be used to undermine the U.S. dollar and detonate the ticking time bombs embedded in the U.S. financial system.  The most notable wild card held by China is its increasing control over the global physical gold market.

In the context of these comments from a Vice Chairman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission (i.e. a CCP member), it’s quite possible that China is starting to flex its muscle slowly to reset the price of gold to more closely align the vast spread between the paper derivative gold price determined in London and NYC and a true “price discovered” price of gold that reflects the underlying supply/demand reality:

Fang Xinghai, a vice-chairman at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that as China mainly relies on the US dollar payment system in international deals, it makes it vulnerable to possible US sanctions.

“Such things have already happened to many Russian businesses and financial institutions. We have to make preparations early – real preparations, not just psychological preparations,” Fang said at a forum organised by Chinese media outlet Caixin.

Fang’s comment came at a time when Washington is pondering how far it should go to use the US dollar’s key role in international payment to punish Chinese individuals, companies and financial institutions for alleged involvement in issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong.  (Caixin Gloal, via Zerohedge)

I’m just speculating here,  but China may be starting to flex its muscle in the gold market. It’s a widely accepted proposition that China’s Central Bank holds many multiples of the amount of gold officially reported.

China is the world’s largest producer of gold and now its setting its sights on acquiring robust western hemisphere gold mines.  Two State-controlled Chinese mining companies have made three notable western gold mining company acquisitions this year: one with a mine in Canada (TMAC); one with a soon-producing gold mine in Columbia (Continental Gold); and one in Guyana (Toronto-based Guyana Goldfields).  All three mine properties host very high-grade gold resources.  China would not spend hundreds of millions to acquire high margin gold mines to sell the gold produced at a manipulated,  artificially low price of gold.

Beyond China’s “invisible hand,”  I don’t know how else to explain the strength in the gold price during a period of time – late 2019 through present – when China and India have largely been absent from the gold market based on import data, while at the same time the Comex paper gold open interest has declined over 40% since January.

Gold has been surprisingly strong this morning, hitting an eight-year high at $1785 (August gold basis). If August gold can jump over the $1788-1790 area, which has been defended vigorously by the paper gold slinging western bullion banks, the $1800 level may fall like Gaul…