Tag Archives: Fed

Are Central banks Really Net Sellers Of Gold Now?

The following commentary is from Chris Powell, the Treasurer of GATA. I fully endorse his view. In fact, when the report initially surfaced that the World Gold Council reported Central Banks to be net sellers of gold in September, I summarily dismissed it for the reasons stated below by Chris. GATA

According to the old saying, sometimes attributed to Mark Twain, there are three kinds of lies: ordinary lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Of course not all statistics are lies, but statistics always need to be challenged when the entities issuing them have an interest in spinning them a certain way, as government almost always has such an interest.

So while it is understandable, given the slovenliness and corruption of mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts, it is still disappointing that central bank gold statistics are routinely accepted without question, even as it is the longstanding policy of the primary compiler of these statistics, the International Monetary Fund, to fudge the numbers.

That is, according to the March 1999 secret report of the IMF’s executive staff, the agency’s central banks are authorized to conflate gold in their vaults with gold they are lending. The acknowledged purpose of this fudging is to prevent the world from discerning just how much central banks are manipulating the gold and currency markets – see this link: GATA.

Lately there have been many reports asserting that central banks have become net sellers of gold after many years of being net purchasers. But as that IMF report suggests, central banks are never more misleading than they are with gold.

Indeed, the location and disposition of national gold reserves are secrets more sensitive than the location and disposition of nuclear weapons. For nuclear weapons can only destroy the world while governments understand that control of gold is control of the valuation of all capital, labor, goods, and services — control of nearly everything:  GATA.

While the recent news stories and market commentaries assert that central banks are now net sellers of gold, the authors of those stories and commentaries don’t really know that. They know only what central banks report doing. And of course nobody questions this, though throughout the years central banks have both sold or leased gold and acquired gold secretly. China has gone as long as five years acquiring gold without reporting the acquisitions to the IMF.

The gold data is especially ripe for questioning now in light of the assertion a few days ago by London metals trader Andrew Maguire that China has begun bypassing the London bullion market in its acquisition of gold and has begun acquiring unrefined gold directly from mines in Africa and South America.

[Note: the report from Maguire explains the highly irregular data that has been reported by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the paucity of imports into China from Hong Kong; gold purchased directly from mining companies in all probability is going to the PBOC and imported through Beijing and Shanghai; gold imports through those two ports are intentionally not reported per this 2014 report from the South China Morning Post]

Maguire identified no sources for his assertion, but any financial news organization that wanted to get serious with its reporting about gold and central banking could easily pursue the issue by inquiring with central bankers, gold traders, gold mining companies, and customs agencies. Of course few such sources might want to go on the record, but some might comment confidentially.

At least news organizations and market analysts could acknowledge that while government statistics may not always be damned lies, they also aren’t always necessarily the truth either, especially on a subject as sensitive as gold.

 

We No Longer Have Markets – Only Interventions

The actual quote is:  “There are no markets anymore,  just interventions – GATA.”  The only people who deny that Central Banks and Governments prop up the financial markets are those who are completely ignorant of the facts, tragically naive or those who stand to benefit from some way from the market manipulation.  Et tu, Bill Fleckenstein?

Of course, a populace which enables and allows the head Central Banker to stand in public and convince everyone that creating inflation is good for the economy – when in fact price inflation of necessities is running around 10% across the country (Chapwood Index), far out-pacing income growth,  can probably be convinced of anything.

Rather than trust hearsay from me or GATA, how about from the horse’s mouth – the former White House Chief of Staff just 5 days ago:

It’s hard to label those who make an effort to expose the truth as “conspiracy theorists” when in fact those “conspiracies” are confirmed to be “conspiracy truths” by those who are involved with the activity being labeled a “conspiracy.”

The entire economic, financial and political system in the U.S. (and in most of the rest of the world) is skating on thin ice.  I said 17 years ago that the corporate, billionaire and political elitists who are pulling the strings on our system will print money and manipulate the markets until they’ve wiped every last crumb of middle class wealth off the table. And then they’ll let the Comex default and the dollar collapse.

The money printing by the Fed enables these people to prop up the market s AND transfer wealth from your pocket to their’s.  That the purpose of a fiat currency based system and that’s what is happening now.  It’s also why I convert a meaningful percentage of my earnings into physical gold and silver (emphatically not GLD or SLV).   The devaluative effect of the money printing on the dollar is the reason gold has risen in price from $35 to $1900 since 1971, with the majority of that rise in the value of gold occurring after 2000.

That end game is growing closer.

Jerome Powell Confirms Intent To Hyperinflate The Dollar Supply

“After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?” – Jeffrey Snider, Alhambra Partners

No Jeffrey,  Powell’s speech was not a cruel joke.  But it certainly was loaded with “Fed speak.”  The bottom line is that “letting inflation run above the 2% target rate” is code for: “we have to print a helluva lot more money to keep the stock market and the big banks from collapsing.”

In our latest weekly update, Chris Marcus (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss the farce delivered by Jay Powell yesterday morning:

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Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks Smell The Demise Of The Dollar

The news that Warren Buffet took a stake in Barrick Gold stimulated animal spirits in the precious sector on Monday. To be sure, this was a factor in the move on Monday. However the precious metals are starting to price in the next round of money printing by the Fed and the coming avalanche of new Treasury bonds, both of which will be considerable in quantity and serve to further devalue the U.S. dollar. On that note, the US dollar index tumbled below 93 on Monday. In addition, per the TIC report which shows the flow of international capital into and out of U.S. securities, foreign entities led by China dumped $20.6 billion worth of Treasury securities in June.

The message is clear: the Fed will need to be a large buyer of the upcoming Treasury bond issuance and the precious metals sector loves the smell of this.

Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss last week’s one-day price pullback in the precious metals sector and factors that will drive gold, silver and the mining stocks up to levels that may even surprise jaded goldbugs:

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Several of my junior and larger cap stock ideas have had huge moves higher. I will be discussing what to do with these stocks in the next few issues of my Mining Stock Journal plus presenting any new ideas I uncover that have yet to be widely discovered. You can learn more about Investment Research Dynamic’s newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

“Why Fed Bugs Really Hate Gold”

The media campaign against gold continues. With Congress ordering magical fiscal bailouts from the Treasury, Trump conjuring up continued $600 weekly unemployment payments by executive order, and the Fed adding assets of every dubious stripe to its swollen $7 trillion balance sheet, gold prices predictably spiked to over $2,000 per ounce last week. Right on schedule, Fed bug journalists respond with a litany of “Gold is foolish, don’t buy it!” articles. In fact they sound like real estate agents in reverse: there is never a good time to buy. Gold goes up relative to the dollar; it’s overpriced and poised for a big fall. Gold falls below $1,100, as it did in 2015? See, we told you this worthless shiny metal was headed down! (article link below)

Gold is the kryptonite of the fiat currency, fractional banking monetary system.  It is sunshine to the vampires who control the money supply and conjure up fairytales which purport an ability to be able to control  the natural laws of economics through the use of modern monetary policy tools.

When gold starts moving higher in price enough to get noticed by the general population who otherwise have been told ad infinitum that gold is nothing more than a useless barbarous relic, the mainstream anti-gold media swarms into the action:  Gold Is A Foolish Place To Put Your Money

The Mises Institute posted a must-read commentary on the mainstream media and financial world’s irrational hatred of gold:  Why Fed Bugs Really, Really Hate Gold.

 

Is Fed Head, Jay Powell, Serious?

“Investors are being infantilized by the relentless Federal Reserve activity…It’s as if the Fed considers them foolish children, unable to rationally set the prices of securities so it must intervene.” – Seth Klarman, Baupost Group

This is indeed the Golden Age of Fraud, with those appointed to manage the system ethically and responsibly leading the charge. The actions at the Fed are conspicuously irresponsible, if not beyond appalling.

Wall Street on Parade posted a report on Friday detailing Jay Powell’s blatant conflict of interests in his dealings as the Fed Chairman in hiring BlackRock to prop up the financial markets. But I almost fell on chair from laughter when I read Powell’s response to a question from the NY Times about the nature of Powell’s four phone calls lasting a total of 90 minutes since March with BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink:

“I can’t recall exactly what those conversations were, but they would have been about what he is seeing in the markets and things like that to generally exchanging information. And he’s typically trying to make sure that we are getting good service from the company that he founded and leads.  I’d say that’s his main objective when we talk.”

Powell must think that those who know enough to pay attention to what’s really going on are complete morons – or at least tragically gullible.   A courtesy call to make sure the Fed is happy with BlackRock’s service?   Is BlackRock the Maytag repairman?  Of course Powell is happy.  The value of his investment with BlackRock has more than doubled since BlackRock was hired to push the financial markets higher using the Fed’s printed money.

The system is openly corrupt now – these guys don’t even attempt to cover the obvious with cheap mascara anymore. Who’s going to stop these crony capitalists from completely looting the system? The SEC? The Justice Department?  Sure, they’ll get right on that but first they too have to feed at the trough.

The wheels are flying off the system and those in a position to do so operate with brazen disregard for the law. The least Powell can do is apologize to his audience for assuming those paying attention are stupid enough to believe the pig vomit he regurgitates to the media and 60 Minutes…

Gold Manipulation Is Carefully Orchestrated – And China Knows It

The bullion banks – at least on the Comex – have reduced their risk exposure to gold and silver derivatives over the last several months, which means reducing their short exposure. This is likely in response to the rising risk that they will be unable to meet increasing long-side counterparty delivery demands.

Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics and I discuss the trends developing in the precious metals market as well as China’s awareness of the western Central Banks’ efforts to manage the gold price:

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You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

A Hopelessly Corrupt Financial System Plus Historic Bubbles – Got Gold?

“At the parabolic top of every financial bubble, thrilled investors lose their tether to
reality, and as the price of the speculative instrument rallies ever higher, investors’
expectations for additional price appreciation inflate ever more. Whether its Cisco Systems at a trillion-dollar market value, Qualcomm at $1000 a share, Oil at $200 a barrel, Bitcoin at a million dollar a piece, or Tesla at $7000 a share, these far fetched price fantasies are the fuel with which bubbles, and their beneficiaries, attempt to sustain themselves.

To the chagrin of the bubble chasers, history is categorical in this regard, the combination of a parabolic price move, a hype narrative, and the proliferation of wild price projections, is highly indicative of a topping bubble and an impending price collapse. Of course, Tesla shareholders will dismiss this article as irrelevant since history count little in the eyes of those who believe their company to be at the forefront of a new transportation and business paradigm.” – Nawar Alsaadi, “Is The Tesla Bubble About To Burst?”“Is The Tesla Bubble About To Burst?”

The Fed has re-inflated the biggest stock and asset bubble in history after the previously biggest stock bubble was punctured in March. Today the Fed will begin buying junk bond/leveraged loan ETFs using Blackrock as its front. There’s two obvious problems with this. First, how does this help the economy?  The money printed and used to purchase the ETF securities will never flow to the companies issuing junk bonds. Ask United Airlines, which had to abandon plans to raise a couple billion in the junk bond market after the market rejected its attempt to issue 11% coupon bonds.  Why didn’t the Fed just buy up that issue? It’s an odd-lot compared to what it’s printed and thrown at the big banks up to this point.

The second problem is Jay Powell’s conflict of interest. Powell has an $11 million equity stake in Blackrock. For its riskless efforts in buying ETFs for the Fed, Blackrock will be paid $15 million.  And guess what? The taxpayers are on the hook for the money the Fed prints and transfers to ETFs and to Blackrock when the trade goes bad – which it will.

“A recurring feature of a bursting investment bubble is the culmination of absurd statements and assertions by an otherwise seemingly reasonable individuals right around the parabolic top of such phenomena.” (ibid)

Shopify (SHOP) closed at an all-time high yesterday. SHOP now sports the largest market cap on the Toronto Stock Exchange.  SHOP didn’t start filing SEC financials until 2015. But going back to at least 2013, SHOP has yet to produce an operating profit.

The clowns on Wall Street and the financial media gushed over SHOP’s Q1 “blow-out earnings.” There’s just one glaring problem with that assertion.  SHOP didn’t even come close to anything that resembles “earnings.”  SHOP’s net loss before taxes more than doubled to $60 million from $24 million in Q1/19.  It’s operating loss also more than doubled to $73 million from $24 million in Q1/19.

EVEN IF you add back the non-cash expense from stock compensation, SHOP’s “adjusted” operating loss increased over 400% to -$20mm from -$4.6mm.  SHOP’s operating expense margin jumped 300 basis points to 70.2% from 67.5%. A lot of that is probably the extension to new customers of the free platform access beyond 90 days. This horrible financial performance is reinforced by the fact that insiders are dumping massive quantities of shares. The time from vest to sale happens so quickly one might think the share certs are infected with coronavirus. In fact, two days after SHOP reported, insiders unloaded another flood of shares.

SHOP now trades at 52x trailing sales and 28x book. Its trailing P/E is infinite (i.e. no earnings to use in the denominator). Wall St./ Bay St. shills are projecting a small net income for 2020. There’s just one problem with this – even the Company has withdrawn guidance. In other words, the “analysts” are merely making shit up.

Eventually the gap between SHOP’s valuation and reality will converge. Those who rented the shares to sell at a higher level will be burned badly. Those holding SHOP shares because “it’s a new economy and it’s different this time” will watch the value of their shares sink well below their cost. Want an “expert’s” view on this?  Ask Bill Miller (@B3_MillerValue) how quickly he ended up losing money for the investors in his Legg Mason Value fund in 2008. His fund, after 15 years in a row of beating the SPX fell below its value at the start of the 15-yr run.

“It’s all so openly corrupt but once again a smashing of gold couldn’t last more than a day.” – Chris Powell, GATA Treasurer

There’s a way to protect yourself from the interminable corruption at the Fed, Wall St and Capitol Hill. Move a large percentage of your investible cash into physical gold (and silver) – not GLD, not a gold investment account – that you safekeep yourself.  Gold has run up 16% since March 19th and 41% since May 22nd.  If the SPX put in a performance like that, they would be doing on naked cartwheels on CNBC, Fox Business and BloombergTV.