Tag Archives: mining stocks

The Next Move For Silver And Gold

It’s obvious that the Fed, along with its bullion bank market emissaries, has been working hard to keep a lid on the price of gold. From the vertical “zip lines” in the chart over the past two  weeks, the price management team is also making every effort to shake out long positions in Comex paper gold ahead of the December deliver period, which begins next Friday afternoon (first notice officially is November 30th, but notices can be issues starting next Friday afternoon).

The willingness of Comex longs to stand for delivery this year in historic amounts is putting enormous pressure on the Comex/LBMA fractional reserve bullion system. While I do not believe the December delivery period will “break” the Comex, as some suggest, if a large portion of the entities “safe” keeping their gold in Comex vaults decide to move their gold bars out of Comex vault custody and into non-Comex safekeeping, the Comex will implode.

Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss where it looks like gold and silver are headed over the next 6-12 months along with the factors that will drive the precious metals sector higher, not the least of which is the next round of money printing by the Fed:

**************

The mining stocks have been in a much-needed corrective pullback from the feeding frenzy this summer. But the enormous amount of institutional money funding mining company stock financings signals to us that the bull market in precious metals/mining stocks has a long way to go.

I focus on junior “venture capital” exploration stocks with 5-10x upside potential. I also sprinkle in some large cap mining stock ideas. The next move higher will take many by surprise. For information about my Mining Stock Journal, follow this link:   Mining Stock Journal information.

I am not sponsored by, nor do I take any promotional fees of any nature from, any mining companies. I do my own research and due diligence and invest in many of the ideas I present.

The Economy, Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks

As of last week, the Federal Reserve now owns 16.5% of the total amount of Treasuries outstanding and 18.5% of the total amount of mortgage-backed bonds outstanding. With out this massive amount of Fed intervention,  interest rates would be significantly higher and the housing market would be in shambles.

The Fed’s balance sheet nearly doubled since March.  While the stock market has rallied to all-time highs since March, there’s still well more than 20 million people receiving unemployment benefits on a weekly basis. The economic bounce-back from the shut-down of the economy in March and April appears to have peaked in July.  By many measures, the economy is starting to contract in again in many sectors.

Silver Liberties and I discussed the reasons why it looks like the Fed is prepping the country for another big round of money printing, which means another big move higher in the gold, silver and mining stocks:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

New Mining Stock Journal Subscriber: “This is a lot of value for $20 a month. Thank you so much!” – Jorgen

Gold And Silver Under The Biden Government

Despite the pervasive and omnipresent manipulation of the gold price implemented in the paper derivatives gold market – which in no way reflects the true supply/demand characteristics of the underlying market for physical gold and silver – gold has been the best performing asset over the last 20 years. Silver has been the third best performing asset. Sandwiched in between is U.S. REITs.

The economic, financial and geopolitical factors driving gold’s performance are now strengthening at an increasing rate.  Driving all three variables is the ongoing and escalating money printing by the Central Banks, led by the Federal Reserve.  It is highly likely that the recent violent attack on the gold price is a precursor to another round of money printing. This scenario is unavoidable regardless of whom or what Party occupies the Oval Office.

This in turn should catapult gold over $2,000 – for good this time.  Silver will quickly head over $30.  The mining stocks will soar.

In this week’s podcast, Chris (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss the prospects for the precious metals under a Biden Presidency:

**************

The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly mining stock newsletter that focuses primarily on the junior exploration stocks. The latest issue includes a review of a junior silver mining company with huge silver optionality. You can learn more about  this newsletter by following this link:  Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

It’s A Fire Sale In The Mining Stocks

Many junior micro-cap exploration stocks have experienced sharp declines. Low relative liquidity in these names contributes meaningfully to the decline in share-price because for many of these these stocks, most of the trading occurs by the retail shareholder base, which is often 50% or more of the shareholder distribution. When markets get turbulent, the knee-jerk reaction from most less-experienced retail investors is to hit the sell button.

But, assuming the bull-cycle is intact, and I believe it is, this will set-up buy/add opportunities for those of us with “stronger stomachs” for volatility (e.g. Eric Sprott is not selling mining shares – he’s waiting for the much bigger move that’s coming and, if anything, he’s adding to his holdings).

Chris Marcus (Arcadia Economics) and I discuss the elections and the implications that the final outcome will have on the precious metals sector in our weekly podcast:

The junior “micro-cap” exploration stocks have experienced 30-50% pullbacks over the last 6-8 weeks. In most cases this is nothing more than the hot money momenturm-chasers who piled into these stocks during July and August unloading their shares – in some cases at a loss. They don’t know what they are doing. I will featuring in my next issue of the Mining Stock Journal several stocks that are now set-up for huge moves. You learn more by following this link:    Mining Stock Journal information. 

Are Central banks Really Net Sellers Of Gold Now?

The following commentary is from Chris Powell, the Treasurer of GATA. I fully endorse his view. In fact, when the report initially surfaced that the World Gold Council reported Central Banks to be net sellers of gold in September, I summarily dismissed it for the reasons stated below by Chris. GATA

According to the old saying, sometimes attributed to Mark Twain, there are three kinds of lies: ordinary lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Of course not all statistics are lies, but statistics always need to be challenged when the entities issuing them have an interest in spinning them a certain way, as government almost always has such an interest.

So while it is understandable, given the slovenliness and corruption of mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts, it is still disappointing that central bank gold statistics are routinely accepted without question, even as it is the longstanding policy of the primary compiler of these statistics, the International Monetary Fund, to fudge the numbers.

That is, according to the March 1999 secret report of the IMF’s executive staff, the agency’s central banks are authorized to conflate gold in their vaults with gold they are lending. The acknowledged purpose of this fudging is to prevent the world from discerning just how much central banks are manipulating the gold and currency markets – see this link: GATA.

Lately there have been many reports asserting that central banks have become net sellers of gold after many years of being net purchasers. But as that IMF report suggests, central banks are never more misleading than they are with gold.

Indeed, the location and disposition of national gold reserves are secrets more sensitive than the location and disposition of nuclear weapons. For nuclear weapons can only destroy the world while governments understand that control of gold is control of the valuation of all capital, labor, goods, and services — control of nearly everything:  GATA.

While the recent news stories and market commentaries assert that central banks are now net sellers of gold, the authors of those stories and commentaries don’t really know that. They know only what central banks report doing. And of course nobody questions this, though throughout the years central banks have both sold or leased gold and acquired gold secretly. China has gone as long as five years acquiring gold without reporting the acquisitions to the IMF.

The gold data is especially ripe for questioning now in light of the assertion a few days ago by London metals trader Andrew Maguire that China has begun bypassing the London bullion market in its acquisition of gold and has begun acquiring unrefined gold directly from mines in Africa and South America.

[Note: the report from Maguire explains the highly irregular data that has been reported by the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the paucity of imports into China from Hong Kong; gold purchased directly from mining companies in all probability is going to the PBOC and imported through Beijing and Shanghai; gold imports through those two ports are intentionally not reported per this 2014 report from the South China Morning Post]

Maguire identified no sources for his assertion, but any financial news organization that wanted to get serious with its reporting about gold and central banking could easily pursue the issue by inquiring with central bankers, gold traders, gold mining companies, and customs agencies. Of course few such sources might want to go on the record, but some might comment confidentially.

At least news organizations and market analysts could acknowledge that while government statistics may not always be damned lies, they also aren’t always necessarily the truth either, especially on a subject as sensitive as gold.

 

Why Gold, Silver And Mining Stocks Are Going Much Higher

I’m the most disconnected from politics as I’ve ever been. It’s a waste of time. Capitol Hill is one big Kabuki Theatre performance space. The country is completely screwed and the elitists know it. Everyone who is in a position to grab wealth and power is scrambling to grab what they can by any means necessary. Think about the dysfunctionality of a system that allows the head of its Central Bank to make the effort to convince the populace that price inflation is good for the economy. It’s Orwell on hallucinogenics.

Craig Hemke (TF Metals Report) invited me onto this weekly podcast to discuss the systemic corruption, precious metals market manipulation and where gold, silver and the mining stocks are headed over the next 12-18 months:

************************

Buying physical gold and silver – not GLD or SLV – should be your first priority in seeking shelter from the eventual fate of the dollar.  But mining stocks offer the potential wealth enhancement as well “optionality” upside to the prices of gold and silver. In the next issue I’ll be featuring a junior silver explorer with 10-20x potential upside. For more information:  Mining Stock Journal.

The Price Of Gold When The Dollar Index Hits 70

There’s been a lot of media/Wall St/blog noise about the relative strength or weakness with the U.S. dollar.  With respect to gold, the daily vicissitudes of the gold price are associated with the daily price variations of the dollar index. This is incorrect analysis.

To be sure, over longer periods of time, there will be a high inverse correlation between the gold price and the dollar index. But prior to the run-up over $1900 in the current period, the last time the gold price was trading above $1900 was in September 2011.  At the time the dollar index was trading in the 70’s.

The investment value of gold – My thesis for devoting the last 20 years to researching, analyzing, trading and investing in gold has been twofold. First and foremost to protect my savings from the ravages of eventual catastrophic policies implemented by the Federal Reserve and the Government. But secondarily, both gold and silver are extraordinarily undervalued relative to the quantity of fiat currency AND fiat currency derived debt circulating globally.  As such, both gold and silver have extraordinary investment value.

The graphic above compares the price path of gold and the USDX over the last 12 months. Without question there’s an inverse correlation – over an extended period of time.  But from mid-March thru June, gold and the dollar traded almost perfectly in tandem.  Since June, gold has risen as much as $400 while the dollar index in the same time is only 300 basis points lower.

In fact, between their respective lows in March and now,  gold has soared 31.7% while the dollar index is largely flat.

This latter occurrence is what I call “the investment value of gold.”  Gold (and silver) functions both as a wealth preservation asset and a wealth enhancement vehicle.  Both metals are singularly unique with these attributes.

Let’s face it. The U.S. technically is insolvent. The only factor preventing collapse, for now, is the willingness of our trade counterparties to continue accepting the dollar for trade settlement. With the continued deterioration in the economic, financial and fiscal condition of the United States and the accompanying escalation in money printing by the Fed, the global acceptance of the dollar will diminish more than it already has over the last 20 years.

At some point the dollar index will quickly revisit the 70 level it tested in 2008.  When that event occurs I expect the gold price to be at least double its current level and silver to be pushing $100 (gold/silver ratio below 40 from its current 80).

Buying physical gold and silver – not GLD or SLV – should be your first priority in seeking shelter from the eventual fate of the dollar.  But mining stocks offer the potential wealth enhancement as well “optionality” upside to the prices of gold and silver. If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks, take a look at my  Mining Stock Journal.

Silver: 2011 Was A Preview Of What’s Coming

The precious metals sector is getting primed for big move higher. The rally that started in March was nothing more than engine revving.  Physically deliverable gold and silver are becoming scarce.  That is making it problematic for the gold/silver market manipulators to keep a lid on the prices of gold and silver.  Rising U.S. domestic and global geopolitical tensions will help serve as rocket fuel for the precious metals sector.

All of the above factors lead me to conclude that there’s a high probability that the precious metals sector will stage a big move between now and the end of the year.

**************

The Mining Stock Journal is a bi-weekly mining stock newsletter that focuses primarily on the junior exploration stocks. The latest issue includes a review of a junior silver mining company with huge silver optionality. You can learn more about  this newsletter by following this link:  Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

The Stock Market Could Be In Trouble – Buy The Dip In Gold / Silver

The price take-down in gold and silver is 100% a product of the trading activity – aided and abetted by the bullion banks in NY and London, who manipulate the price in the paper derivative market. All of the trading activity dictating this sell-off is occurring in the paper derivative markets – it has nothing to do with the economics of the physical gold and silver markets.

How do I know this? Consider that 404,000 Comex December paper gold contracts contracts traded on Wednesday. That’s equivalent to 1,262.5 tonnes of gold. That’s roughly 42% of the total amount of gold that will be mined in 2020. In other words nearly half a year’s worth of physically mined gold traded in one day in just one contract month.

The ONLY physical gold and silver that is transacting is at the London price fix. And it’s dubious as to whether or not physical gold and silver is actually changing hands. Most of the “settlement” occurs digitally and gold and silver do not physically change possession. It’s a bigger scam than pet rocks.

At some point the coming market, economic and political turmoil will trigger a big bid for gold and silver which in turn will translate into a big move higher for the mining stocks.

Silver Liberties invited me on to it’s podcast to discuss the imminent stock market crash, the popping of the housing bubble 2.0 and precious metals:

A Matter Of Time Before Stocks Collapse And Gold Soars

“Look at the underlying fundamentals that are driving it [gold and silver prices]. The financial condition of the country that hosts the reserve currency deteriorates more everyday and the Central Bankers are trying to kick the can down the road on an inevitable financial system and monetary system reset by printing more money.”

The economy continues to show signs that the “sugar high” from the Fed’s and Government’s multi-trillion dollar money printing and stimulus spending is wearing off. The latest economic reports – notwithstanding the moronic homebuilders “sentiment” metric – reflect a renewed downturn in economic activity plus the numbers reported in July are being revised lower (see today’s retail sales report, for instance).

As long as the Fed continues to devalue the dollar by printing money and as long as Treasury debt continues to increase at an increasing rate, the fundamentals are in place for a monster move in gold, silver and mining stock.

Michelle Holiday of Portfolio Wealth Global invited me on to her podcast to discuss the factors that I believe will lead to a stock market avalanche and soaring values in the precious metals sector:

**************

You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Note:  I do not receive any promotion or sponsor payments in any form from the mining stock companies I present in my newsletter. Furthermore, I invest in many of the ideas personally or in my fund.

New Mining Stock Journal Subscriber: “This is a lot of value for $20 a month. Thank you so much!” – Jorgen