Tag Archives: money supply

The Next Bull Move In Mining Stocks

The big rally in Q2 continued into Q3 until early August. At that point, all of the technical and sentiment indicators I monitor were registering levels which indicated that the speculative frenzy that developed in July had reached the point of “boiling over.” I see the decline in the sector that began in early August as a healthy “corrective” pullback that will set-up the next move higher.

The precious metals sector made a big run since mid-March, outperforming every asset class with the exception of a handful of insanely overvalued tech stocks. When a market makes a big run like we experienced in Q2, it’s not unusual to run into some interference while it consolidates and percolates for the next move higher.

Contrary to popular myth, it’s impossible to time a market top or bottom unless complete luck is involved. It’s always good to keep cash on hand to take advantage of opportunities in your favorite holdings or new ideas when the market creates those opportunities.

Bill Powers invited me back onto his Mining Stock Education podcast to discuss the precious metals sector and specifically the junior mining stocks:


Buying physical gold and silver – not GLD or SLV – should be your first priority in seeking shelter from the eventual fate of the dollar.  But mining stocks offer the potential wealth enhancement as well “optionality” upside to the prices of gold and silver. If you would like some ideas for investing in mining stocks, take a look at my  Mining Stock Journal.

Gold Chases The Money Supply Higher

Q: “Why is the Fed reluctant to let the boom-bust nature of markets play out?”
A: “Because it what’s they’ve always done [since the Fed was founded in 1913]…Once you’re in power, you’re going to do what you can to defend the system as it is”

The best official measure of the money supply created by the Fed was M3.  “Was” because the Fed under Helicopter Ben removed M3 from public view.  But the “effective” money supply is the currency printed plus the “spendable” currency created by debt issuance. Currency from a loan behaves like printed money until the loan is repaid.  But for the last 10 years the amount of the loans outstanding, and therefore the supply of “spendable” currency,  has risen at an increasing rate.

Gold can “smell” these reams of fiat paper currency being printed and then fractionalized and leveraged by the Central Bank. The “fractionalization,” of course, is the process by which loans (including repos) creates spendable currency.

SilverBullion invited me back onto its SBTV podcast to discuss the markets in the context of the QE4 and what it means for the gold, silver and mining stocks:


You can learn more about  Investment Research Dynamics newsletters by following these links (note: a minimum subscription period beyond the 1st month is not required):  Short Seller’s Journal subscription information   –   Mining Stock Journal subscription information

Jerome Powell Fails The Gold Standard Test

“You’ve assigned us the job of two direct, real-economy objectives: maximum employment, stable prices. If you assigned us [to] stabilize the dollar price of gold, monetary policy could do that, but the other things would fluctuate and we wouldn’t care,” Powell said from Capitol Hill. “We wouldn’t care if unemployment went up or down. That wouldn’t be our job anymore.” – Jerome Powell in response to a question about returning to the gold standard

Everything about that answer is incorrect. To begin with, the Fed apparently now has three “assigned” jobs: employment maximization, price stability and “moderate long-term interest rates” (federalreserve.gov).  How can we take anything Powell says seriously if he’s not aware of the the duties of his job?

But let’s set that issue aside.  In fact, if the dollar was backed by gold, the Fed would be irrelevant – the gold standard would take away completely any need for a Central Bank. Powell and his cohorts would not have any job at the Fed.

The function of a gold standard is not to “stablize” the price of the currency which is backed by gold.  Interest rates can be used to “stabilize” the value of currency.  Free markets, if ever allowed, would set the price of money.  The function of the gold standard, fist and foremost, is to stabilize the supply of currency in relation to the wealth output of an economic system.

A Central Bank is not necessary to any economic system which has its currency backed by gold.  If the U.S. had its monetary system tied to the value of the gold it holds in reserve,  it would automatically serve the function of price stability. Remove gold from the equation and the macro variables fall apart rather quickly.

But let’s use reality to test this.  Prior to the closure of the “gold window,” the U.S. largely was a creditor nation and never incurred unmanageable Government spending deficits except during wars.  In fact, the amount of Treasury debt issued to fund the Viet Nam war ultimately led to the removal of the last remnants of the gold standard.  This is because the U.S. Treasury did not have enough gold left to redeem debt issued to foreigners with that gold per the Bretton Woods Agreement.  In short, the U.S. ran out gold so Nixon closed the gold window.

Take a look at the economic and fiscal condition of the United States from inception to 1971 and post-1971.  Any “economist” or Central Banker (Powell is not an economist and probably never thought about gold until he was prepped to answer the possibility of a gold standard question) who opposes the gold standard is ignorant of historical facts or has ulterior motives.

Aside from his inability to respond intelligently to the gold standard question (he should have taken notes from Greenspan), Powell knows that  a zero interest rate policy and money printing are the only ways that he and his elitist cronies can keep the system from collapsing until they finish extracting the last remnants of wealth from the public.  A gold standard would stand in the way of this effort.

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government’s promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. – Alan Greenspan, “Gold And Economic Freedom,” 1966

How Banks Create Money Out Of Thin Air

“The credit creation theory was something I intuitively grasped before from other alt-media sites, John nailed it down.” – Comment from someone who watched the podcast below

The “money supply” number as provided by official Federal Reserve statistics, it turns out, is not the true money supply. The fractional banking system allows banks to lend money on its reserve capital at a rate of 90 cents for every $1 of reserve capital. Technically, a loan is not considered “money creation” because of the legal provision that a loan has to be paid back. Because of this legal “glitch,” the creation of credit is not considered to be part of the money supply.

Yet, borrowed money behaves in the economy exactly like printed money until that point in time at which the borrow must pay back the loan. The spending power created by the creation of credit is identical to the spending power of printed money. The person or entity doing the spending does not know the difference.

This means that the amount of debt issued and outstanding by the U.S. Treasury should be added to the “official” money supply number (for example, M2) in order to calculate the true supply of money circulating in the system.  This especially true because the amount of debt issued by the U.S. Government increases in quantity on a daily basis – it’s never repaid (anything considered “repaid” has been repaid with new debt).

In this podcast, which is the latest segment of John Titus’ “Mafiacracy” series, Titus explains how and why it is that banks create money out of thin air. Once you understand the principles reviewed in this podcast, you’ll understand how the U.S. became a giant Ponzi Scheme:

What Happens To Gold & Silver When Trump Attacks The Dollar?

Get prepared because we’re going to have the worst economic problems we’ve had in your lifetime or my lifetime. – Jim Rogers, Macro Outlook in the Trump Era – MacroVoices

Make no mistake, it’s going to get ugly at some point in 2017. Elijah Johnson at Silver Doctors invited me to discuss why I believe Trump’s policies, assuming he gets anything passed and implemented, will be phenomenal for gold. Another factor not being discounted or widely discussed is an acceleration in the rate of inflation over and above the ability of the Government’s CPI sausage grinder to mute actual price inflation in everyday consumables.

Does Gold & Silver Care Who Wins?

Short answer:   No.

A local financial advisor texted me today asking what I thought gold would do if Hillary wins today. Obviously he’s been reading the pedestrian analysis on the topic that has flooded the mainstream media.

But gold doesn’t care who wins.  The United States is beset with unsolvable financial and economic issues that will require a systemic reset.  The amount of funded Treasury debt outstanding since Obama took office has doubled to $20 trillion.  So much for his claim that he reduced the spending deficit.  But the result would have been the same if McCain had won in 2008 or if Romney had won in 2012.

Stocks and bonds are historically overvalued.  While the accounting standards have been substantially liberalized thereby enabling companies to artificially boost earnings with gimmicks, using comparable accounting rules to compare now to any other market top in history would show that current valuation ratios are significantly higher than at any other time in the history of U.S. markets.   The bond argument is easy:  interest rates are at or near all-time lows.  Rates can only go higher which means bond prices can only go lower (unless artificially taken negative by the Fed, which would cause gold to go parabolic) .

With fiat paper assets at historically overvalued levels, gold and silver are highly undervalued relative to financial assets and in relation to the quantity of paper money, where the quantity paper money is currency issued plus credit outstanding.  The latter is included because debt functions exactly like currency until it’s repaid.  Guess what?  This country has not reduced the cumulative public and private debt outstanding in the post-World War Two period.  The small “blip” indicating overall debt declined in 2010 reflects massive banking sector write-offs and debt-forgiveness, both of which were monetized by the Fed.  As long as the level of debt increases, credit outstanding needs to be included in the money supply.

The bottom line is that gold is going to move much higher in value relative to the dollar regardless of which candidate or which party controls the political process.  The laws of nature and economics remain constant throughout history.   When the Central Bank and Government market intervention eventually fails and these laws reassert their force – which they always do – the “money” that floods out of stocks and bonds will flood into physical gold silver.


“We’ve Got To Start Rigging The Gold Market”

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold [FDR1934]If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.  – Alan Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom” 1966

GATA has sourced a speech given in 1981 by the President of the BIS, Jelle Ziljstra, at the IMF headquarters in 1981 in Washington, DC in which he advocated Central Bank intervention in the gold market in order to control the price and prevent gold from competing with a global system which was based on paper fiat currency:

“I feel it is necessary for us, within the Group of Ten and Switzerland,consider
ways to regulate the price of gold…”  – Jelle Zijlstra

The “Group of Ten” are the Central Banks of France, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada plus Switzerland.  As everyone knows, the BIS is the Central Banks of global Central Banks and therefore controls – de facto – global monetary policy.  Here’s a link  to the speech – there can be no questions that Central Banks – through their agent “bullion” banks (primarily JP Morgan, HSBC, Scotia, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Barclays and UBS) – make a concerted effort to limit the upward price movement of gold.

That day the U.S. announced that the dollar would be devalued by 10 percent. By switching the yen to a floating exchange rate, the Japanese currency appreciated, and a sufficient realignment in exchange rates was realized. Joint intervention in gold sales to prevent a steep rise in the price of gold, however, was not undertaken. That was a mistake. – Paul Volcker, “Nikkei Weekly” Nov. 15, 2004 (original incident on February 12, 1973)

Below are couple graphs from the St. Louis Fed website, with my commentary, to put Zijlstra’s speech context.


The Fed discontinued reporting M3 in March 2006.  The excuse was that M3 was too expensive to compile and report.  This is in the context of the Fed spending millions to fight all attempts by Congress to authorize a full audit of the Fed.  The U.S. is the ONLY industrialized country which does not report M3.  Make no mistake, M3 is the most accurate – though not completely accurate – measure of the money supply.   Any honest economist will admit that.

Note the difference in the level of M3 vs M2 when M3 was discontinued.  M3 shows that the money supply was nearly $4 trillion higher using M3 at the time M3 was discontinued.  Nothing happens by accident and it’s no coincidence that M3 reporting was discontinued a little more than 2 years before the Great Financial Crisis and the advent of Bernanke’s “QE.”  Many of us saw the financial collapse coming in the early 2000’s – certainly the price of gold “saw” it.  If we did, I can guarantee that the BIS and the Fed saw the collapse coming and the need to flood the system with dollars to keep it from collapsing and destroy the elitists’ ability to confiscate wealth and control the western world.

IF the Fed were to report M3 now, how high would the U.S. money supply truly be?


This second chart above shows the parabolic, hyperinflating growth of U.S. Government debt.  Note that the growth in Treasury debt did not start taking off until after Nixon closed the gold window.  It started to rise a little more quickly after 1981, when Volker began to ease up on monetary policy.  The rest is history, but note that issuance of Treasury debt goes parabolic after Bernanke began to flood the banking system with money.

It was shortly after the Bernanke Money Floodgate opened that gold almost broke through $2,000 per ounce before the BIS/Fed was able to get control of the price and push it lower using Comex and LBMA paper gold, which can be printed in unlimited quantities as long as counterparties  do not demand delivery of the underlying gold.

In other words, the U.S. dollar-based global monetary system is one massive paper fraud and gold is the arch-enemy of a system based on fiat paper currency.  The only way it has been perpetuated this long is through the outright intervention in the gold market by the BIS and western Central Banks.

Like ALL Government interventions in history, this too shall come to an end – an end that will be painful for all of us.