Tag Archives: non-farm payroll report

Non-Farm Payrolls: There’s Not Enough Lipstick In The World To Pretty Up This Pig

Every good lie has to retain an element of truth. If today’s non-farm payroll report is the best possible lie, how bad is the truth?  – Investment Research Dynamics

Well, now we know why they aggressively and blatantly tried to push gold as low as possible this week.  Is this the best they got?

I am not going to discuss the actual details of what was reported in today’s NFP (non-farm payroll report). This serves no purpose other than to imbue the numbers that were reported with some sense of legitimacy.   The numbers are a fairytale and I’m not in the business of engaging in a debate over the “finer points” of fantasy-derived fiction.

Having said that, and given that the August lie was revised lower by 21%…think about that for a moment:   the stock market screamed higher on a number originally reported in September that they decided was incorrect by twenty-one percent…let that sink in for a moment…one has to wonder just how bad the truth is that lies beneath the carefully constructed fiction.  

If you take a paint-scraper to the heavy latex paint applied on top of the facade, just how badly damaged is the underlying structure?

Again, without giving any assent to the validity of the number that was reported, the Government is telling us that the percentage of the population that is “participating” in the labor force is at its lowest rate since 1977.   That is a staggering statistic because in 1977 this country was largely still a one-income producing household. So how catastrophic is the real number? 

Interestingly, after the “number” was reported, the S&P 500 futures embarked on a 40 point reversal from the 10 point gain that the Fed had managed to achieve overnight.  A 40 point reversal that was not just a “flash crash” because it took several minutes to transpire.  Conversely, gold had been pushed lower by Yellen’s gang and it embarked on a $33 dollar upward reversal.

The reason this is interesting is that if this “miss” by a major “economic” report had occurred 3 months ago, the S&P 500 would have spiked up 30-40 points on the “renewed” indication that the Fed would not raise interest rates at the next meeting. Conversely,  gold would have been slaughtered because the only way to smear the lipstick of legitimacy on ZIRP is to make sure gold stays in a dungeon.

Something has changed in the complete character of the market and the Fed’s ability to manipulate it. We saw this a couple weeks ago when the stock market behaved scatologically – and gold shot higher – after the Fed deferred (predictably by me) on hiking Fed funds by even a tiny amount.

The Fed is losing control of a system that is rapidly collapsing from countless skeletons in the closet that have come to life.  Too much debt in every nook and cranny of the U.S. system;  hidden OTC derivatives bombs with lit fuses; impending emerging market sovereign bankruptcies; declining tax revenues and State/local Governments on the verge of insolvency;  a real economy that is in a frenetic downward spiral; the most overvalued stock market in history (when you strip out all the accounting gimmicks piled into what is being reported by S&P 500 America).

Perhaps most frightening is a political system with the wheels coming off.  A good friend and colleague of mine – and someone who was actively involved in politics at one time – commented, after Boehner announced that he was quitting the job he was elected and paid well to do, that he couldn’t recall ever seeing so many “insiders” voluntarily leaving the system (Congressmen, Bernanke, high profile hedge fund managers) as we’ve seen the past couple years.

And now guys like Carl Icahn are openly stating that the system is fake and will sooner or later crash.  This is the guy who got rich off of exploiting and front-running waves of dumb money piling into the the markets (he was an original beneficiary of Drexel Burnham’s junk bond odyssey).

Something really devastating is coming at us in the system.  The insiders see it but we can only see and interpret the smoke signals that are leaking out from the cracks in the Orwellian wall that has been built over the last 40 years which has prevented the herd from seeing the truth.

The best we can hope for now is that the insane neocons running the Department of Defense do not start pushing the wrong buttons as a means of deflecting our attention from a system that is economically, financially, politically and socially collapsing…

Jobless Claims Are Irrelevant – Private Sector Data Shows Employment Is Dropping Quickly

After non-farm payrolls, GDP and CPI and new home sales,  the jobless claims report is probably the useless data report released by the Government.  It supposedly measures the relative strength of the jobs market by indexing the weekly number of new claims for jobless benefits.   However, there’s two obvious and distinct problems with this report.

First and foremost, the data is based on weekly reports filed by each State’s unemployment insurance claims office.  The data is often subject to delayed reporting and reporting errors.  And, of course the data gets to go through the Governments trusty “seasonal adjustments” meat grinder.   That latter fact alone renders the data completely suspect.

But there’s  bigger problem.  It has to do with the nature of the labor force.  Obviously we’ve seen ad nauseum that the labor force participation rate graph is falling go quickly that it appears to trying to dig a hole to China.   As the actual number of workers in the labor force declines, the layoff rate declines and therefore the rate of workers (who qualify) file of jobless benefits declines.

Furthermore, by the Government’s own rigged numbers, since 2008 character of the workforce has been shifting from full-time to part-time.  Part of the reason for this is that Companies can eliminate the expense of paying unemployment insurance by replacing full-time workers with part-time employees, even if it means hiring a few more bodies.  Full-time workers are entitled to health insurance, pension and unemployment insurance benefits.  By eliminating the need to pay these entitlements, the cost of paying three part-time workers in place of two full-time workers.

The OBVIOUS result of this workforce demographic shift is that there will be a lot less workers filing for jobless claims on a weekly basis simply because the labor force is composed of a significantly higher percentage of workers who do not qualify to file for jobless benefits when they get “downsized.”


Ergo, the weekly jobless claims filings decline over time, as do the 4 week running continuing claims. The idiots on bubblevision (CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Biz) report the continuously  low – relative to history – weekly jobless benefit filings with a high-five and an end zone dance because they think it reflects a healthy labor market.   But, quite the contrary, the low weekly jobless benefits claims reflects a tragically declining labor rate participation rate and workforce composition demographic that is riddled with terminal pancreas cancer.

Here’s a graph sourced from Zerohedge that shows the discrepancy between the Government’s employmentuntitled numbers and an index of six major regional Fed surveys which shows employment doing a cliff-dive.

As you can see the regional Fed metrics are showing a stunning negative divergence from the Government massaged reports. Which one do you trust?

Furthermore, Challenger, Gray released its monthly layoff report this morning which showed that layoffs surged 43% in September.  Yet, these layoffs didn’t move the needle on the weekly jobless claims, which Bloomberg bills as being “near a decade low.”

I suspect the real layoff numbers are even worse than is being reflected by Challenger, Gray and the Fed surveys.  The housing and auto industries are turning lower again rather quickly.  The construction industry employs a lot of independent contractors who don’t register as part of the labor force and thus don’t register as “unemployed” when they can’t get contract work.  Soon retailers and restaurants will cutting a lot jobs and then the real fun begins…


The Entire System Is Fake

I woke up this morning knowing that, for whatever reason, the S&P 500 would be up a least 20 points.  Of course I flip on the telly and see the Spoos up 23 and gold down $5.

Upon investigating possible news triggers, I see that civil unrest is fomenting in China (we’ll investigate that later because the Shadow of Truth is hosting “our man on the ground in Beijing,” Jeff Brown today) and the military confrontation by proxy (ISIS) between Russia and the U.S. is escalating in Syria.

Those are obvious reasons for the stock markets around the world to retreat and for gold to be higher.

With a little further rummaging for news I see that bad economic reports in Japan and Europe have Wall Street clamoring for more QE.  So the S&P 500 futures spiked up on the expectation that the BOJ and ECB would expand their “QE” programs.

We know that QE has definitively not helped the real economy other than those closest to the money spigot: Wall Street’ers plus those who benefited from the Fed dumping $2 trillion in the mortgage market and enabling the re-birth of subprime garbage mortgages – real estate pimps, mortgage whores and the smart homeowners who sold into the bubble.

The bottom line is that the S&P has spiked up – and gold was slammed, now down $12 after the near-daily hit job on gold when the Comex opens – on the expectation that Central Banks will print more money in order to buy more stocks.   To put it another way, the financial system is totally fake.   More QE expected.  This  is expectation that should have, best case, kept stocks from falling and certainly not spiking higher AND should have launched gold to the moon.

And no one outside of the GATA community ever questions why gold seems to get hit hard almost every morning when the Comex opens.

I got an email from colleague who tracks the non-farm payroll report expectations vs what might happen based on the past history the birth-death model plug number pattern.  Granted, his model has a good track record, but the whole exercise is patently absurd.

A bullshit number tells us that a bullshit number is going to “miss” expectations.  This concept is RETARDED. The Government’s employment report has been torn apart and proved to be a complete fiction time and again ad nauseum. It’s a complete joke that educated adults even bother analyzing the numbers as if they mean something, which they unequivocally do not.

Who cares if the employment report misses, beats or is in-line? It’s like debating whether or not the Star Trek Enterprise would get better mileage on hydrogren or natural gas.

This whole charade is beyond retarded.  The incredible volatility in the stock market tells us that the financial markets are starting to collapse, reflecting economic data from every non-Government source showing that the economy is starting collapse again. My personal view is that more money printing will not arrest this process this time around unless the Fed prints and directly buys stocks.  I’m sure Obama would happily sign an Executive Order allowing that to happen.

Of course, if the Government takes that direction, my best advice is for everyone to fold up their tent and start looking for a remote place outside of the U.S. to go live if you want to survive.  It’s getting that bad.

Wax On, Wax Off – Interest Rate Hike On, Interest Rate Hike Off

Non-farm payroll report comes out and Spoos [SPX futures] go down 32 handles. Gold starts off up $4, now down $6. This is totally rigged. I’m going to Vegas, at least the tables are more level then these markets and I get free booze and some really hot chicks.  – reader comment after employment report hit the tape

Despite the rhetoric coming from the Richmond Fed’s Lacker, there will be no interest rate hikes in September.  It’s not about the fictitious and indisputably managed and manipulated non-farm payroll report, it’s about the catastrophic degree of leverage in the banking system.

All along, despite the disingenuous pretenses of helping “main street,” the Fed’s money printing has been targeted specifically at keeping the big banks from collapsing and to enable them the continue sucking wealth out of the U.S. economic system.  Secondarily, it’s enabled the U.S. Treasury to continue issuing debt obligations that will never be repaid.

There will be no interest rate hike in September, or in 2015 for that matter.

In order to support this intended monetary policy, the Fed has to discourage investors from converting fiat paper money into real money – gold and silver – by creating shock and awe terror in the paper precious metals markets (hey, it worked with 9/11 and we got the Patriot Act, Detainee Bill, Homeland Security Act and an unfettered NSA).

Here’s what this anti-gold terrorism looks  like in the paper gold trading market – click to enlarge – the time-scale on the x-axis is MST:

Untitled1As you can see, after a quick initial move up, an avalanche of paper selling hit the paper market, driving the paper price of gold below where it was when the report hit the tape. We would have expected a big move up in gold as the logical response to a jobs report which badly missed Wall Street’s consensus estimate, and thus convincing the hedge fund algos once and for all that there would be no rate hike in September.

Between the 8:30 a.m. (EST) report release and 9:00 a.m., over 42,000 paper gold contracts traded, most of them “sell” orders.  This is 4.2 million ounces, or the equivalent of 122 tonnes of paper gold.  122 tonnes is more than the amount of gold that India is said to have imported in August – Business Standard, Mumbai

Of course, this action in the paper gold markets on Fridays, especially non-farm payroll report Fridays, has become standard operating procedure for the Fed.  With all of the physical gold trading markets closed for the weekend, the Fed is free to operate unfettered from the pressure that physical demand exerts on the paper gold pornography.  In fact, China has been closed for the past two days, which has alleviated temporarily China’s inexorable demand for physical gold that is delivered in to China.

To give you an idea of the extreme degree to which the bullion banks – backed by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury – have gone in order to keep a lid on the price of gold using paper, you’ll note that the ratio of paper gold outstanding to the amount of gold being reported as available to deliver has spiked back up to 126:1:


I sourced this graph from Jesse’s Cafe Americain and recommend reading the the accompanying commentary:  LINK

In any other commodities market on the CME, if the ratio of the amount of paper to the amount of available underlying physical commodity approaches anywhere near even a 2:1 ratio, the CFTC cracks down the “manipulator.”  For some reason the paper gold and silver markets have the dubious distinction of existing free from any legal regulation by the U.S. Government and the bureaucracies that exist that are supposed to enforce the rules governing market manipulation.

Meanwhile, retail demand for U.S. mint gold and silver eagles surged this summer.  From June to August silver eagle purchases were up 126% over the same period last year.  And gold eagle purchases tripled from Jun-Aug this year vs. last year (data source:  SRSRocco Report).

I won’t go into the flow of gold from west into India and China.  Imports into those two countries will hit all-time record highs this year.  That’s a lot of Pet Rocks being bought with U.S. fiat currency.

Without question the extreme intervention in the paper precious metals markets – NYC and London – is serving the purpose of hiding the fact that the Fed will not be raising interest rates this year, or next.  In fact, the next policy move will be more money printing.  Or “QE4” if you want to call it that.  But until the Fed sells its Treasury and mortgage holdings, for now what is occurring is pure money printing.  And more of it is coming.


Paul Craig Roberts: The US Economy Continues Its Collapse

When I was a Wall Street Journal editor, the deplorable condition of the US economy would have been front page news.  –  Paul Craig Roberts

President Obama attributed the decline in the participation rate to baby boomers taking retirement. In actual fact, over the so-called recovery, job growth has been primarily among those 55 years of age and older. For example, all of the July payroll jobs gains were accounted for by those 55 and older. Those Americans of prime working age (25 to 54 years old) lost 131,000 jobs in July.

Over the previous year (July 2014 — July 2015), those in the age group 55 and older gained 1,554,000 jobs. Youth, 16-18 and 20-24, lost 887,000 and 489,000 jobs.

Today there are 4,000,000 fewer jobs for Americans aged 25 to 54 than in December 2007. From 2009 to 2013, Americans in this age group were down 6,000,000 jobs. Those years of alleged economic recovery apparently bypassed Americans of prime working age.

You can read the rest of Dr. Roberts’ commentary here:  The U.S. Continues To Collapse

There’s No BS Like The BLS

The employment report isn’t worth discussing, quite frankly.  We already know ad nauseum that the report is completely fabricated and, perhaps, only reflects a modicum of what is really happening in the U.S. labor market.  That is, the report shows that most of the employment “gains” are occurring in the part-time segment of the labor force, while full-time jobs continue to disappear.

The only purpose served by dissecting the report is to “legitimize” the number as if those are the numbers we should be discussing.  The talking heads and economic “experts” in the financial media look like complete idiots when they engage in passionate discourse about a “tight labor market” and an “improving employment situation.”  It’s beyond absurd.

Furthermore, we already know that the labor force participation rate continues to decline into oblivion.  Again, it’s become obvious over the last several years that the U.S. economy is quickly approaching the point at which more than one-third of the population is not even considered to be part of the “workforce.”  That fact is starting to put me to sleep – and perhaps that’s the goal of these Government manipulated economic reports.

But one area of the report did catch my eye.  According to Government data-collectors and statisticians, the number of workers over the age of 55 surged to an all-time high, while the number of workers in the 25-54 age bucket plunged by 131k.  Even if that latter number not the real number, it certainly reflects some sort of statistical reality.  In fact, I would bet the real number is even bigger.   This fact becomes obvious when you walk into any retail big box stores and grocery stores – not just Costco or Home Depot – and you see AARP members performing menial tasks like greeting and thanking customers, collecting grocery baskets and even bagging merchandise.  The Social Security set is being forced back to work and its crowding out the prime segment of the workforce who might otherwise take those jobs or who don’t take them because they don’t pay enough.

The only reason I bring this up is because – for any of you who remember – Obama gave a speech about a year ago in which he asserted that the rapid decline in the labor force participation rate was caused by people over the age of 55 taking early retirement.

Either Obama is a psychopathic liar or he is a complete idiot who merely serves the purpose of reading the propaganda that scrolls in front of his eyeballs on the teleprompter.  I suspect it’s a combination of the two factors.

I suspect I was not the only person at the time who pointed out this incongruity, because I have not heard that particular propaganda soundbyte coming from the Obama Government since Obama expelled that large brown piece of fecal matter from his mouth.

Government Jobs Data: Defining Deviance Downward

Your analysis on the June jobs report was posted in the comments section on the WSJ online.  After reading them, I did some more research based on concepts you introduced [to me].  I learned more in the last 90 minutes about the BLS surveys than from the past 12 months of WSJ articles on the topic.  Thanks.  – from “Jim” in his Linked-In connection request

640,000 thousand people leave the workforce but the unemployment rate drops to 5.3%. Only here in this country now can sell that big bag of shit.  20 years ago anyone would have been embarrassed to print that report or laughed out of the meeting room.  – Dave’s NY friend

NY Friend:  Of all the lies you ever told in your days of a junk bond trader, you never told a lie that blatant.  You used to say a good lie contained an element of truth.

Me:  Dude, I only told lies I knew I could get away with.

NY Friend:  We’re back to the 1977 level of employment when one income could support a household.

Here’s the analysis of the jobs report today from my good friend and colleague, John Titus of Best Evidence:

The labor force is defined as people working or looking for work. It’s a solid approximation of the real jobs number, and it’s on the high side because obviously not everyone looking for work is actually working. But if you accept the sunnyside fudge and equate looking for work with actual work, you’ve got a very accurate picture of jobs.

Since Obama took office in January 2009, the U.S. labor force has added 2.827 million people. Obama’s claim of adding 11 million jobs is just a straightjacket-and-electrodes-crazy lie no matter how you cut it.
What is even worse is that those additions to the labor force came from the total pool of people added to the working age population—a pool that has grown by 15.924 million people.
So under this so-called jobs president, an astounding 82.25% of people enter their working age years without working and without looking for work. Think about that number for a second. More than four out of five people who aren’t working or looking for work is grim, worse-than-Great-Depression-ugly, no matter how small the sample is. But the fucking “sample” here is 100% of everyone added to the entire working age population for almost the last 7 years.
Anyone who thinks that what’s happening in Greece can’t or won’t happen here is at best dreaming and more likely unhinged. Based on the real jobs data, it’s guaranteed to happen here.
The the definition of “defining deviance downward.”  The phrase was first used by Senator Danial Patrick Moynihan in the early 1990’s after Clinton had assumed office to describe the willingness of our society to tolerate the rising criminality and fraud in the political and economic system.
Our system is well past the breaking point of recoverability.  I asserted in 2003 that:  “the elitists running our system will hold up the system with printed money and debt certificates for as long as it takes to sweep every last crumb of middle class wealth off the table and into their own pockets.”
We are witnessing the end-game phase of this operation.  For the record, “middle class” is defined as anyone who does not have enough cash laying around to buy their own Congressman, Senator or the Oval Office.  This means anyone reading this who has a few million in the stock market, bonds and a house or two will soon be stripped of that unless they convert that “wealth” into real money.

Non-Farm Payroll: “Something Must Be Horribly Wrong For Them To Be This Blatant”

When the propaganda gets so bad that Wall St. Journal readers respond with threats of violence [to the Hilsenrath editorial], you know the lies are getting extreme. Regarding today’s NFP, the numbers are beyond absurd. 57k jobs added in hospitality and leisure? No one has money spend and everyone knows that. We used to laugh at the propaganda numbers coming from the old Soviet Union. The numbers coming from the U.S. Government are a bigger farce than the old Soviet Union’s propaganda…Don’t hold your breath waiting for the Fed to raise rates. – John Titus, Best Evidence

The title quote comes from John Embry. I was going to do a detailed dissection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll data to show why the numbers are simply can not be believed. But it’s become a pointless and repetitive exercise.

A colleague of mine thought that next to the October 2012 pre-election NFP, this was the most fraudulent report ever released. I disagreed because at least back then the GDP reports, for as rigged as they are, were at least showing “growth” would could be used to “justify” reported employment gains.

Today’s report was far more fraudulent than the October 2012 fairy-tale for two reasons. First, we expected the pre-election 2012 fictitious report for obvious reasons. But second, by the Government’s own numbers the economy contracted in Q1 2015. Moreover, almost all of the economic data released in April and May showed not only further economic contraction but also that the rate contraction increased. In Q1 2015 corporate profits dropped by the most amount since 2008 . Companies DO NOT hire people when their business is contracting. The non-farm payroll report is a complete fraud, it’s better to have a payroll system that is similar to CloudPay that might be able to help with payroll reports.

The non-farm payroll report is the poster-child for everything that is wrong with our country. The banks have been announcing 10’s of thousands of layoffs coming. Banks are downsizing because lending activity of all sorts is declining. When there is no economic activity to finance, it means that the economy is contracting and businesses fire – not hire – workers. Hewlett Packard, one of the countries largest business services companies announced yesterday that “more layoffs are coming” LINK. That means the same holds true for every other large technology/business services company. These companies did not hire 63,000 people in May only to turnaround and fire them in June.

The Government wants us to believe that the construction industry hired 17k new workers in May. Yes, construction spending showed a slight bounce in April but this was 110% driven by Government spending, which has been in a downtrend. Private residential construction spending continued its 3-month decline. As John Williams of Shadowstats.com summarizes:

The aggregate construction series remained near the recent low of a down-trending pattern of stagnation, with the real series holding at 32.9% below its pre-recession peak of March 2006. The private-residential series remained down-trending both before and after adjustment for inflation.

This implies that there were not any construction workers added in May. If anything homebuilders kept their payrolls flat or down-sized.

The BLS claims Financial services added 13k in May. But sadly, we know just the opposite is true from disclosures by HSBC and JP Morgan. My friend who works on Wall Street in NYC told me last week that fixed income trading floors all over the Street are like a morgue. Banks and finance companies fired, not hired, in May.

Leisure and hospitality reportedly added 57k workers in May. Again, this is a complete fairy-tale – an outright fraudulent data-point. Consumer spending has been declining for the better part of the last year. Every major consumer sentiment index reported the consumer sentiment and outlook crashed in May. This means that, to the extent that any consumers might have some disposable income to spend, they are NOT going to spend it. This means the leisure and hospitality companies – at best – kept payrolls flat. It is a lie of epic proportions to report that this sector was responsible to 57k in jobs added to the economy.

You don’t need me to explain just how fictitious today’s employment report is. Just look at the graphic below and decide for yourself if the numbers are justified by the economic reports released in May and by your observations in your surrounding environment:


One last point. The Birth/Death model showed 213k jobs created in May from new businesses being started minus businesses that closed. It is not a seasonally adjusted number so it is not mathematically accurate to simply subtract it from the headline 280k number. However, the likelihood is that, even seasonally adjusted, the B/D number was a source of at least 200k of the 280k headline report. By the Government statisticians own admissions, the B/D model is highly overstated when the economy is contracting. The more probable likelihood is that more businesses died than were born in May. This fits with the “for lease” signs I’m seeing in strip malls all over Denver. If anything, this component of payroll measurement likely should caused a decline in employment during May.

But this brings up the question: why does the Government report its payroll numbers on a seasonally adjusted basis but then releases the B/D model not adjusted? Of course it’s obvious: the Government wants its economic reports to be as opaque and misleading as possible.

SoT May 9, 2015 – The Government Employment Report: Theater Of The Absurd

Although heralded in the popular media as indicating reinvigorated employment growth and declining headline unemployment, April’s headline reporting of labor conditions and the accompanying revisions was not a happy circumstance. Underlying economic reality remains deteriorating broad activity. Below the surface, the April labor detail did not tell a happy story…   – John Williams, Shadowstats.com

The U.S. financial markets – and the media’s reporting of all news connected to the markets – have become the biggest farce known to humanity.  The wildly inaccurate methodology used to produce the Government’s non-farm payroll report has become legendary.  So-called financial experts climb on CNBC and Bloomberg and conduct a public display of dissecting and analyzing the numbers as if they are credible.  In my opinion they are doing nothing more than making absolute asses of themselves. The entire spectacle exceeds the mundane  bounds of absurdity by several standard deviations.

The Government and the bubblevision clowns would have us believe that 223,000 people found jobs in April.   But a look “under the hood” of the actual report reveals that 252,000 full time jobs were lost.  This was offset by an alleged increase in 437,000 part-time jobs. But even these numbers require acceptance of the BLS report prima facie.

Even more absurd is the BLS claim that the energy sector lost only 3,300.  It’s an embarrassment to our Government that the BLS would release an official report with that claim in it.   Challenger Gray, which compiles job hiring and firing statistics, reports that the energy sector lost 20,675 jobs during April.

My colleague Rory Hall and I released a brief podcast on our Shadow of Truth Youtube Channel which discusses the  preposterous nature of both Friday’s report and the stock market’s reaction to the report:

Bingo: BLS Pads Employment Report With Birth/Death Plug – SPX Melts Up

Update:   MELT-UP EXTRAORDINAIRE.  Dow up 242 points; SPX up 24 points.  All on a phony number and big downward revision to last month’s phony number.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, armed with the highly unreliable Census Bureau employment data sample (you, the Taxpayer pay for the this tragicomedy), released its extraordinarily overanalyzed and extraordinarily useless non-farm payroll report today.  According to Bloomberg, the Wall St. brain trust consensus estimate was for 220k jobs “added” to the economy.   The “actual” reported number was 223k.

As predicted, the S&P 500 melted up – click to enlarge:


Of course, the hedge fund algos completely ignored the unexpectedly bad number of 126k for March was revised lower to an atrociously horrific 85k. This is by design, people. Hedge fund computers only care about a headline report. The revision does not make the headlines.

As further predicted by my friend and colleague, Mark Kellstrom of Strategic Energy Research, the BLS used its fictitiously calculated “Birth/Death Model” plug metric to pad today’s report with 213,000 “fairytale” jobs.  We wrote about this here:  LINK.  You can verify this here:   LINK – I’m not making this stuff up – I’m not sure Lewis Carroll could have made this up…

The only incorrect prediction was that it was not a huge beat of expectations.  However, it was a huge beat of the “whisper” number, given the poor ADP Payroll report.  I did suggest in a post earlier this week that the ADP report was intentionally managed lower to set up today’s “surprise” and help the Fed stimulate a hedge fund algo SPX melt-up.

Of course, the BLS and it’s mentally challenged Census Bureau lap-dog want us to believe that the unemployment rate is only 5.4%.   I guess this could be true if you want to completely ignore the 93.1 million of the working age population that is not considered to be part of the labor force.  Of course, according John Williams, who looks at how the Government calculated the unemployment rate in 1990 vs. now, the true unemployment rate is more like 23%.

Naturally, if you don’t like something, just ignore it.  The BLS has determined that only 3,000 energy sector jobs were lost in April.  Hmmm…that one has me scratching my head. Especially after you look at this chart produced by Zerohedge yesterday:  LINK.   Retail was given credit with producing 12.1k jobs during April.  That is patently absurd given that we know the retail sector is closing down at least 6,000 stores nationwide over the next 18 months.

It just doesn’t get any more absurd than this.  It just goes to show:  “There’s no B.S. Like The BLS.”