Fear, Greed and Reality. Also Bill Murphy’s “Commercial Signal Failure,” which occurs when physical demand for deliverable gold and silver overwhelms the paper derivative short positions used by the western Central Banks to manage the price of gold and silver.
The naked short position in paper gold and silver is so big that any government or central bank with a substantial FX surplus could pull the plug on it by trading enough Treasuries, or even euros or yen, for real metal. Russia and China, among several other eastern hemisphere Central Banks are doing just that.
Silver Doctor’s James Anderson invited me to discuss the factors behind what appears to be a major move higher in the precious metals, possibly leading to the eventual geopolitical and financial systemic reset (Silver Doctors/SD Bullion):
Elijah Johnson invited me onto the Silver Doctor’s precious metals podcast to discuss why mining stocks are historically cheap and why an expected crash in the stock market will be accompanied by a soaring precious metals sector. We also discuss why Trump is beating up the Fed over rate hikes:
Note on my Mining Stock Journal. I mentioned a highly undervalued intermediate gold and silver producer in the podcast. I also want to note that occasionally I issue “sell” or “avoid” recommendations. I happened to notice yesterday that Novo Resources was below $2. A year ago I strongly urged my subscribers who owned Novo in my October 19, 2017 issue to sell the shares when the stock was above $6. Here’s what I said:
I am following this saga with fascination because it’s a great study in mass crowd psychology and investing. It blows my mind that this stock can have a $1.3 billion market cap with almost no evidence of a mineable resource other than small, pumpkin-size “seeds” of gold samples. I exchanged emails with my junior mining company insider to get some interpretation of the results and affirmation of my view: “These nugget deposits are very difficult to model and drive mining engineers absolutely nutz! This is what happened with Pretium’s first shot at a published resource at the Brucejack project in BC. The gold is coarse and not equally and predictably distributed, so the consultant had a very difficult time modeling the deposit and therefore coming up with an agreeable resource estimate.
Jim Rogers stated in an interview with Bloomberg that “the next bear market will be worst in my lifetime,” adding that he didn’t know when that bear market would occur. The stock market has become insanely overvalued. Before last week, several market-top “bells” were ringing loudly. The stock market could easily drop 50% and, by historical metrics, still be overvalued.
Gold, silver and the mining stocks have been pulling back since late January. In fact, I warned my Mining Stock Journal subscribers in the January 25th issue that the sector was getting ready for bank-manipulated take-down. In the latest issue I offered a view on when the next move higher could begin. Mining stocks in relation to the price of gold and silver have become almost as undervalued as they were in December 2015, when the sector bottomed from the 4 1/2-year cyclical correction. In a recent issue I listed my five favorite junior mining stocks.
I was invited to join Elijah Johnson and Eric Dubin on Silver Doctors’ weekly Metals & Markets podcast. We discussed the stock market, precious metals and the Fed’s next policy direction:
I also publish the Short Seller’s Journal, which is a weekly newsletter that provides insight on the latest economic data and provides short-sell ideas, including strategies for using options. You can learn more about this newsletter here: Short Seller’s Journal information.
There is no history to suggest this is sustainable. This price move remains the most extreme technical disconnect in the $DJIA ever. – Northman Trader
The U.S. dollar has had the worst January since 1987. There’s a lot of reasons why the stock market crashed in October 1987, but the declining dollar was one of the primary catalysts. The rest of the world, led by China, is methodically and patiently removing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The cost for the U.S. Government to fund its rapidly expanding spending deficit is going to soar. Absent the ability to print unlimited quantities of electronic dollars, the U.S. Government’s credit quality is equivalent to that of a Third World country.
Silver Doctor’s invited me to join Elijah and Eric Dubin for their weekly Metals and Markets podcast. We discuss the issues above plus have a little bit of fun:
The cost to buy down-side protection has never been cheaper. No one, I mean no one is short or hedged this market. When slide starts, it will quickly turn into a massive avalanche. You will have to be set up with hedges and short positions or you will miss the money that will be made from taking a lonely contrarian view of the market.
My subscribers who shorted my homebuilder stock idea two weeks ago are now up 17.7%. That’s if they shorted the shares. They are up even more if they used puts. If you are interested in learning how to take advantage of the coming stock market crash, you learn more about the Short Seller’s Journal here: Short Seller’s Journal information.
After hitting an all-time low of 8.84 three weeks ago, the VIX more than doubled at one point this past week, closing up 55% for the week. The attributed cause, those far from the primary reason, was the childish verbal skirmish between North Korea and Trump. The cat-fight bordered on the traditional playground, “my dad is stronger than your dad” duel.
From the U.S. propagandists’ perspective the show itself was a great device to deflect the public’s attention from the collapsing U.S. financial and political system, the process of which will get a boost from the upcoming political war over the Treasury debt ceiling (remember that?).
Silver Doctor’s invited me to join Eric Dubin and Elijah Johnson to discuss last week’s action in the stock and precious metals markets and why the stock market may be on the verge of a historic sell-off.
The Mining Stock Journal and the Short Seller’s Journal are designed to offer a low-cost, high-quality stock and financial markets research tool help you take advantage of the historically undervalued precious metals sector and greatest asset bubble in history. Click on either image below to find out what each has to offer:
Dave, just a moment for some feed back. I just placed an order for 1oz gold eagles thx to my profits off your Tesla and BBBY short-sell ideas, thx as always. – subscriber feedback
Doc asked me last minute to fill-in for Eric Dubin, who’s M.I.A. somewhere on the shoreline of southern France, on Silver Doctor’s Metals and Markets weekly podcast. Among other topics we discussed why the current trading action in the precious metals paper market feels very similar to trading in the spring/summer of 2008 – ahead of the great financial collapse crisis and why the Fed/bullion banks are making it obvious that they seek to scare investors away from buying precious metals with their “shock and awe” price-takedowns.
But one big difference between now and 2008 is that these “zip-line” vertical drops in the paper are being met with aggressive buying from the eastern hemisphere physical buyers, thereby limiting the size, intensity and duration of the price-hits.
As of the latest COT report release Friday which details the constituent trader positions through last Tuesday, the trader positions are moving toward a highly bullish set-up for gold and silver. In silver, the hedge funds are now net short silver futures and the swap-dealer segment of the bullion bank positioning is net long. In gold, the hedge funds have aggressively reduced their net long position and the swap dealers are long to a relatively large degree. Historically, this position shift has preceded major bottoms.
In the latest Mining Stock Journal, I present a silver producer who’s stock that was ruthlessly taken recently. I review the details in-depth, including my conversation with the CEO, and discuss why this is an opportunity to buy into a major producing company at irrationally low price level based on the facts of the situation. I also lay-out the call options I put into the fund I manage in large quantities to bet that my assessment has good probability of being correct. You can find out more about subscribing here: Mining Stock Journal info.
After subscribing to Brent Cook for 3 months, I was underwhelmed. Resubscribed to you a few weeks back and sure am glad I did so. You are one the few straight shooters still out there. Keep up the great work. I think we are right on the cusp of a serious market break, thus the war drums. – subscriber “Chris
Silver Doctors / The News Doctors invited me onto their weekly SD Bullion Metals and Markets show to discuss why both the technicals and fundamentals are setting up for an unexpected rally into the summer in gold, silver and the mining shares, specifically the juniors.
Subsequent to our recording, the weekly Commitment of Traders report released Friday showed that the bullion banks continue to cover their net short positions in both gold and silver rather aggressively and the hedge funds are unloading long positions and piling into the short side. Historically, this has been a set-up for big moves higher in the sector. The hedge funds chase momentum and they are almost never right in the precious metals sector. When they pile into short positions, like they are now, it’s always a valid contrarian indicator. We also discuss why the “summer doldrums” in the precious metals sector is no longer a valid seasonal play.
Another contrarian indicator is the negative sentiment connected to the GDXJ ETF. Adam Hamilton wrote a non-compelling critique of GDXJ and made the assertion that GDXJ was diverting the flow of capital away from junior companies that deserve to get funding. The problem with this analysis is that retail investor buying of junior mining stocks on the secondary market is not a source of capital for junior mining companies. The secondary trading of stocks is not a source of capital for any stock, for that matter. ETFs are a “derivative” of the secondary trading market and thus are also not a source of capital for companies.
Junior mining stocks get their capital from new share issuance or from direct investment by strategic investors. If Hamilton bothered to call on the companies themselves rather than take quarterly filings and throw numbers into a spreadsheet as his primary tool of analysis, he would discover that many junior exploration CEO’s would tell him that they are getting a lot interest from strategic investors. Furthermore, many junior mining companies with investment-worthy stories are having no problem raising capital through primary share-issuance, notwithstanding the recent turmoil connected to GDXJ. GDXJ is a derivative security. Derivatives are a source of fees for their issuer/sponsors, not a capital raising conduit for companies.
The Mining Stock Journal focuses on the emerging junior exploration mining companies that are seeing an elevated level of investment interest from sophisticated private investment funds and from strategic investors. These are the stocks that offer the greatest upside-potential in the junior segment of the sector – not the larger-cap, developed companies in the GDXJ Trust. The latest issue features a company with a potentially prolific gold property that is in negotiations with a strategic investor. Two juniors featured in the Mining Stock Journal were acquired recently. Looking at companies one-by-one, not en masse, is how you find the potential home run stocks. You can learn more about investing in these opportunities here: Mining Stock Journal information.
Here’s the download for the latest SD Bullion weekly show: MP3 download and here’s the podcast:
Phenomenal movement lately with one of your stock picks, Dave, and I have no doubt it’s still in the first inning of what will be a very long game. Superb. Thank you! – subscriber “Mark”
Question: Why do Central Banks and Governments hate gold?
Answer: Because they can’t print it
“An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.” – Alan Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom”
Just like everything else in the western financial system, the paper trading markets are leveraged beyond redemption. The amount of paper “claims” on actual physical gold was estimated to be 100:1 in 2010. We can assure you that ratio is much higher now. On the Comex alone, for instance, if more than 9% of the April open interest in gold futures were to stand for delivery – based on the currently declared 1.4 million ounces of gold reported as being “available for delivery” (registered) – the Comex would default. The entire open interest in gold futures is 60x greater than the amount of gold available for delivery.
This is just the publicly traded paper gold derivatives. There’s also the shady world of OTC gold derivatives. We have no idea what kind of leverage is embedded in these contracts. But the total notional amount of OTC “precious metals” derivatives according to the OCC’s latest quarterly report on OTC derivatives (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) is over $28 billion. Just to highlight the degree to which the Government goes in order to hide the facts about the gold and silver market, the OCC used to break out OTC precious metals derivatives into the categories of “gold” and “silver and other.” Now the OCC reports just “precious metals.” What is it that the Government and banks are hiding?
The amount of leverage embedded in a Comex futures contract, based on the current amount of margin required, is about 25:1. There’s no telling how much leverage is embedded in the OTC derivatives agreements. All we know is that the disclosure requirements are becoming increasingly more opaque.
Silver futures began trading on the CBOT in 1969. But gold futures were not around until 1974, three years after the U.S. closed the gold window, completely disconnecting the dollar from gold. Gold futures were developed to enable the Fed and the U.S. Treasury to control the price of gold as a means of reinforcing the legitimacy of the dollar as a fiat currency used as the world’s reserve currency.
While the price of gold has been heavily manipulated since at least the 1960’s, when the U.S. was running out of enough gold to fulfill its obligations under Bretton Woods, the manipulation and “shock and awe” price attacks are used as a form of propaganda that is designed to discourage investors from converting fiat dollars into gold and silver. It’s a powerful weapon used by the Deep State against gold and economic freedom.
In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth we discuss the manipulation of gold and silver and how it’s used by the Deep State to increase the Government’s control over the population:
Get prepared because we’re going to have the worst economic problems we’ve had in your lifetime or my lifetime. – Jim Rogers, Macro Outlook in the Trump Era – MacroVoices
Make no mistake, it’s going to get ugly at some point in 2017. Elijah Johnson at Silver Doctors invited me to discuss why I believe Trump’s policies, assuming he gets anything passed and implemented, will be phenomenal for gold. Another factor not being discounted or widely discussed is an acceleration in the rate of inflation over and above the ability of the Government’s CPI sausage grinder to mute actual price inflation in everyday consumables.
The bullion bank gold cartel pulled out all of its stops last week in order take down the price of gold and silver. Particularly useful was selling by longs connected to fear over the week-long closure of China in observance of the Chinese New Year’s celebration (Year of the Rooster). Interestingly, last year gold was volatile during the Chinese New Year week off but traded sideways, not lower.
In addition, this upcoming week features the FOMC meeting and the January employment report. On average and in general, both of these events typically are accompanied by a take-down in the price of gold. On Friday, however, after the obligatory smashing of gold and silver associated with Comex options expiration (Thursday), gold snapped back sharply $9 from its Thursday low of $1181 and silver soared nearly 50 cents from its Thursday low.
Eric Dubin and the Doc invited me onto Silver Doctors’ weekly Metals and Markets Report to discuss the factors behind last week’s gold and silver trading activity and the reasons why gold and silver could turn in a better 2017 than 2016:
If you agree with the views in the above podcast, the Mining Stock Journal offers great junior mining stock ideas to help you take advantage of the next move higher in the precious metals sector. You subscribe using this link: Mining Stock Journal subscription link. As subscription includes all the back-issues and superior customer service.
Hi, i really like your mining stock newsletter. I am fairly new to the mining sector and i did start investing in last febuary pretty much at the lows – recent new subscriber “Thomas”