# The Big Retail Sales Lie

There’s a direct correlation between the scale and quantity of lies coming from Hillary Clinton and the Government. Why? It’s election season, of course. It’s easy enough to dismiss Hillary’s plea for debate viewers to go to her campaign website to see “fact” checking.  We know how easy it is for her to hide the truth when she has assistance from the State Department, FBI and Obama.  If you believe Hillary Clinton, you also believe in the Easter Bunny.

But it’s also easy to fact check the Census Bureau’s retail sales reports.   Now, it’s easy enough to believe that the Government would manipulate the statistics in order to help the incumbent party maintain control the White House.  But it’s also easy to fact-check the Census Bureau’s tabulations for monthly retail sales, notwithstanding the fact that the Census Bureau is caught producing fraudulent statistics on a regular basis.

Today, for instance, they released their “advance estimate” for retail sales for September. The Census Bureau would have us believe that retail sales increased .6% from August to September.  But this was based on the Government’s politically expedient “seasonally adjusted” calculation.

Simple math disproves the validity of the “adjustments.”  The report shows “not adjusted” total retail sales as estimated by the Census.  August was \$471.3 billion – or \$15.2 billion per day.  September was \$445.4 billion – or \$14.8 billion per day – down 2.6% from August to September on a per day basis .   In retail sales terms, a 2.6% decline month to month is equivalent to a steep plunge.  (click image to enlarge)

Theoretically, the seasonal “adjustment” offsets the day-count difference between August and September. But what about the 3-day Labor Day holiday weekend?   This year Labor Day fell on September 5.  Presumably that weekend should have compensated for any “seasonal”differences between August (back to school?) and September.  BUT on a sales/day basis, September retail sales plunged from August.

Here’s a definitive “fact check” on the Census Bureau retail sales report.  The retail sales report is showing a 1% increase per the “adjusted” number from August to September. However,  Black Box Intelligence, the best source for both private and public company restaurant industry data, is reporting that restaurant traffic fell 3.5% in September from August.  In fact, traffic counts have dropped at least 3%  in four of the last six months. Same-store-sales dropped .5%.

This private sector source of data is consistent with data that I have been presenting in the Short Seller’s Journal for trucking and freight shipments for August and September and for actual auto sales numbers, which are declining at an increasing rate, along with the rise in auto loan delinquencies.   In fact, according to Fitch the default rate in subprime auto loans is now running at 9% and is expected to be at 10% by year-end.  Fitch is usually conservative in its estimates.  I would bet the real default rate will be well over 10% by the end of 2016.

One final significant datapoint released last week was auto sales for September. The “headline” report showed a 6% SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) gain in September over August for domestically produced autos. However, auto sales typically increase from August to September as Labor Day sales drive September car sales. Year over year, domestic car sales plunged 19% and truck sales were down 1%.

Now for the reality-check. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, September sales for GM, Ford and Chrysler declined 0.6%, 8.1% and 0.9% respectively. Toyota and Nissan reported gains while Honda’s sale dropped. Moreover, it took heavy discounting to drive sales. In fact, incentive-spending by OEM’s on a per-unit average basis set a single-month record, topping the previous single-month record set in December 2008. Think about that for moment.  – from the October 9 issue of the Short Seller’s Journal

The bottom line is that most, if not all, data coming from private-sector sources conflicts and undermines the “seasonally adjusted” garbage data reported by the Government. Just like all other news reported by the media that is sourced from the Government, the Government economic reports are yet another insidious form of propaganda tailored for political expedience.  But propaganda does not create real economic activity and the middle class is becoming increasingly aware that it’s being told nothing but lies from the Government.  Today’s Government generated retail sales report for September is a prime example.

# The Fall of the House of Fraud (And Peak Corruption)

Peak Corruption represents the terminal phase of any business, social system, government or collective entity of any kind. Peak Corruption is absolutely and by definition the end of the road.  – Guest post by Stewart Dougherty

Guest post by Steward Dougherty –  The United States has transitioned from a Republic, to a Democracy, to a Crony Capitalist Oligarchy, to its present state: a thinly disguised Monarchy.

This monarchy is ruled by the the American House of Fraud, the nation’s Royal Family. The House of Fraud is populated by a small group of individuals who live like kings and queens by systematically plundering the wealth of the nation.

While members of Royal Families are typically linked by blood, the members of the American House of Fraud are linked by psychological characteristics. To become a member of the American House of Fraud, one must demonstrate exceptional levels of greed; sanctimony; power-lust; shamelessness; compulsion to control; love of wars-for-profit; lack of conscience; self-righteousness; egomania; and superciliousness: in other words, psycopathy.

The mantra of The House of Fraud is: “Never Enough.” No matter how much money they plunder, no matter how many people die in their wars for profit, no matter how much havoc they wreak, it is never enough for them. Their ethic is this: For starters, we want it all; then we want more. They represent a bottomless pit of need, and therefore, they create an endless curse of looting, chaos, destruction and death.

The House of Fraud cannot survive, because the people can no longer afford to maintain it. Already, it has financially and spiritually destroyed the American Middle Class, and this devastation spreads and becomes more acute every day.

By any officially accepted accounting measure one wishes to use, the House of Fraud has completely bankrupted the United States. Rather than admit this and reform itself, it has doubled down to loot every remaining private asset it can get its hands on before the already failing economy enters a new, more deadly phase of disintegration.

Every Royal Family needs a bank, and the Bank of the House of Fraud (BotHoF) is known as the Federal Reserve System. The BotHoF has a mono-mandate: to facilitate the maximum amount of national and global looting by The House of Fraud, without outright destroying the global economy that produces the money it steals. It views itself as an evolved, intelligent parasite: one that does not kill its hosts, at least not for as long as possible. It fully recognizes that at some point, hosts must die. By then, it expects to be “Good to Go,” with all the plunder it requires, for the then time being. The job of the BotHoF is to keep the Looting Machine in excellent mechanical condition, and the Looting Fields fertile.

The stock in trade for The House of Fraud is corruption. Corruption greases its wheels, and serves as its prime enabler. As the plundering by The House of Fraud has exponentially increased, it should come as no surprise that so has corruption.

Corruption has become so pervasive and endemic throughout the United States that it has pervaded high levels of virtually every government agency and bureau, which are now overtly politicized, scripted, subverted, co-opted and compromised.

The curse of American corruption has been growing for many years, but never more so than in the past eight. It is no coincidence that the nation’s debt has exploded at the same time, as they are direct reflections of each other.

The recent orgy of fraudulence has brought us to what we term: Peak Corruption. The United States is now at its breaking point, and can no longer afford the astronomical costs of fueling the political, banking, military, pharmaceutical, and other related engines of looting and corruption.

A deal exists between the Bank of the House of Fraud and the Washington, D.C. political establishment. The deal is this: the BotHoF will supply the politicians with however many dollars they want, as long the DC establishment agrees never to interfere with the BotHoF.

This means that the BotHoF cannot be subjected to any legitimate forms of Congressional oversight, special investigations, audits, or other types of control or review. Other than certain members of the Royal Family of the House of Fraud, no one is permitted to pull back the curtain and examine the hidden workings of the Great BotHoF. As philosophers know, secrecy has always been the workshop of the Devil.

Both parties have gladly accepted this deal. Accordingly, the BotHoF is permitted to operate in total secrecy, creating and distributing however much money it wants to whomever it wants on whatever terms it wants, and to control and divert the wealth of the nation in whatever manner it decides, in its own personal interests, without any oversight or limitation whatsoever.

This is astounding, given that the BotHoF has commandeered not its own, but rather The People’s money. Absent from every single action taken by the BotHoF are the best interests ofThe People.  Which is exactly what they want. The BotHoF acts in the best interests of the Royal Family, not those of the RF’s subjects.

The BotHoF manages what has been known as the “dollar.” We believe this is an old term that no longer applies, because the current dollar bears no resemblance to what a dollar was intended and used to be. New realities require new words to describe them. Our view is that the central counterfeiters at the BotHoF now issue Dollwhores, a currency that has been recklessly pimped into epic profusion, which will result in a demographically guaranteed population explosion. The abbreviation is: Dws (Dollarwhores).

The debt of The House of Fraud fast-approaches Dws 20,000,000,000,000. (Twenty trillion.) This debt does not include the net present value of the nation’s unfunded, contingent liabilities (i.e., Medicare, Social Security, government pensions, veterans’ benefits, disability payments, subsidized health care, and so on, ad nauseum), whose burden is conservatively estimated to be between Dws 150,000,000,000,000 and Dws 225,000,000,000,000, a sum that grows by trillions of Dws every year.

These amounts are so gargantuan that they are far beyond even the capability of Ph. D.’s in economics or statistics to conceptualize, model, forecast or understand. Monetarily, fiscally and economically, we are flying blind; no one has any earthly idea about the true, ongoing dynamics of the current system or what factors could destabilize and/or destroy it, despite what they might tell you and want you to believe.

Two things are certain: 1) The debts of the House of Fraud can never, ever be re-paid in anything other than the equivalent of Reich’s Marks or Venezuelan Bolivars; and, 2) The members of the Royal Family of the House of Fraud are fully aware of this, particularly its bankers. Everything they tell you to the contrary is a deliberately concocted lie specifically designed to facilitate ongoing looting.

There is no way on this earth that any entity, including The American House of Fraud, could ever have run up existing and unfunded debts of this magnitude and then loaded them onto the backs of the citizens had a nation-destroying deal not been in place between the BotHoF, the Royal Family and the Washington DC political establishment. These insiders have enjoyed monumental windfall profits by privately cashing in on that deal.

No financier in his or her right mind would lend Dws 20 trillion to an already bankrupt entity producing nothing but massive annual, additional losses (deficits); with zero prospects whatsoever, according to its own business forecasts, of producing ten cents of surplus at any time in the future; having no turnaround business strategy whatsoever other than to spend much more money on programs already experiencing massive losses, and to launch new programs massively in deficit on their start dates, heading deeper into financial oblivion from there; and with no capability whatsoever of re-paying even one penny of its debts, ever.

Peak Corruption represents the terminal phase of any business, social system, government or collective entity of any kind. Peak Corruption is absolutely and by definition the end of the road.

Today, evidence bombards us from every direction that Peak Corruption has become a giant wrecking ball laying waste to to everything that made America great in the first place. It is destroying once trusted and trustworthy government institutions and bureaus, reducing them to reputational and dysfunctional rubble; it has structurally destroyed the productive aspects of the economy, whose capital has been looted by the Royal eleech (and no, they no longer deserve the term “elite,” which connotes positive accomplishment and distinction); it has turned politics into a frenzy of pay-for-play parasitism and greed; it has turned markets into manipulated fantasies intended to create false illusions of economic normalcy and prosperity; it has fomented wars-for-profit on an unimaginable scale, where entire nations are bombed for years on end while tens of millions of citizens become homeless, hopeless scavengers; it has financially destabilized a majority of American families, although they haven’t seen anything yet; and it has propelled so much smoke, dirt and ash into the air that it is no longer possible for the people to see their future, with any kind of clarity or reassurance.

But rising from the ashes of the destruction they have created is some good news, too: the Peak Corruption wrecking ball is indiscriminate, and is also destroying the House of Fraud, even though the HoF is using every weapon it owns, such as the Mainstream Media, to continue operations and delay its fall.

The Alternative Media has awakened tens of millions of people worldwide, and grows stronger every day. People are coming to realize that the problem is not them, but what is being done to them. And that they must act now if they are to have a future worthy of themselves.

We specialize in Inferential Analytics, a powerful forecasting method we have developed over a period of 15 years. We have never before seen so many of our measures indicating severe stress. We wrote this article to tell you that, so you can think about these issues, and take the steps you believe you need to take. If there is interest, we can provide more prescriptive information in this regard, so feel free to leave a comment if you wish.

In early November, there is a referendum on the future. If the people once again swallow the propaganda and outright lies pounded into them by the House of Fraud, then we project quickening systemic deterioration leading to extreme instability and sharply reduced opportunity. Peak Corruption simply cannot be maintained as an ongoing method of operation. If the people begin to reject the establishment agenda that is destroying them, this would be a positive development that should at least halt the expansion of the enormously destructive plague of Peak Corruption until additional actions can be taken to reverse it.

The House of Fraud has had a good run, siphoning trillions in plunder from the people during its reign. If it comes to complete ruin thanks to its own excessive, self-destructive greed plus the awakening of the people, we need not lose any sleep over the fates of its denizens. They will be just fine, though undeservedly so.

Stewart Dougherty
October 2, 2016

Stewart Dougherty is the developer of a privately-held, principles-based forecasting methodology named Inferential Analytics. The unique IA model assesses monetary, fiscal, financial, market, social, political, empirical and anecdotal factors to get a glimpse of tomorrow, today. He has 35 years of management, corporate strategy and business development experience. He is a graduate of Tufts University (MA) and Harvard Business School (MBA).

# Lies, More Lies And Hillary Clinton Allies With Rothschilds

The mainstream U.S. media has been propagating outright lies about the alleged geopolitical belligerence of Russia and China when, in fact, the United States Government has been the implementing the world’s most aggressive and deadly deployment of military hardware and militarily offensive overtures in the Middle East, eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East.

Those who bother to “keep up” with news by reading their local newspaper or, more likely, catching  a little Fox News or CNN online or on TV are inundated with news stories about the “antics” of Russia with regard to Russia’s territorial rights in Crimea or of China with regard to China’s territorial rights in the South China Sea.   But those narratives are nothing more than fictionalized propaganda.   The truth is that the U.S. – under the guise of “NATO” – has been surrounding Russia’s border with militarily offensive military equipment and personnel.  The U.S. has been directly and aggressively confrontational with China over China’s territorial claim to certain South China Sea islands.

The same false narrative has been applied to the situation in Syria.  The U.S. wants Syria’s President Assad removed and a U.S./Saudi puppet installed because it benefits U.S and Saudi elitist/royalty energy interests. Syria is also historically a key strategic location geographically.   But Russian, and now China, has drawn a line in the “sand” in Syria.  The entitled, “exceptional” U.S. oligarchy is unhappy with this and floods the mainstream media airwaves with a level of propaganda that might make Joseph Goebbels blush but would make Edward Bernays proud.

Finally, a report was out over the weekend that the entitled Hillary Clinton, who aspires to be the next Queen President of the U.S. puddle-jumped in her lear jet (I’m not sure how she managed to make enough money to afford a lear jet on a Senator’s salary) from Matha’s Vineyard to Nantucket, where the Rothschilds (Lynn Forester de Rothschild) hosted a \$100,000 per head fundraiser.   It’s a shame that Hillary’s faithful supporters have no clue with regard to the meaning of a Rothschild-funded Oval Office.

In the latest episode of the Shadow of Truth, we discuss why the United States has become the most corrupt Government in modern history, if not all of history:

# R.I.P. Vox Populi: Democracy Is Dead In The U.S. – Your Vote Is Worthless

Mind-blowing simply can not describe the realization that this country’s populace is willing to accept Hillary Clinton as a bona fide Presidential candidate.  The fact that anyone is willing to support her candidacy is beyond imaginable.  Notwithstanding her known illegal activities in her career as an attorney while her husband was Governor of Arkansas and then when he was running for President;  notwithstanding all the scandals to which she was connected while her husband was in the Oval office;  the fact that Hillary is now the Democratic front-runner in the Presidential race is the direct manifestation of just how far into the abyss toward collapse that the United States has fallen.

Based on all the evidence, there is no question that Hillary has been completely “captured” by Wall Street’s siren call of riches.  Both she and her husband have been paid millions by the Too Big To Fail banks for speech-making appearances.  Hillary’s  public financial disclosures show she earned \$2,935,000 from 12 speeches to Wall Street banks alone from 2013 – 2015;  Deutsche Bank paid her \$485,000, Goldman Sachs an astonishing \$675,000 for a single speech. Wall Street banks are her leading campaign contributors.

What could either Bill or Hillary possibly teach these bankers other than how to break the law and get away with it?  This speaks nothing to the fact that Hillary has been exposed for selling National policy initiatives to the highest bidder abroad per her emails which were hacked and exposed.  The entire spectacle of Hillary’s campaign is a nightmare  beyond imigination turned into reality.

On the other side of the “aisle” is Donald Trump, who’s improbable run for the Presidency has turned into a cult of personality parade that gains more popular support by the day.  And for good reason.  Trump’s support base is comprised of everyone in the U.S. who is fed up with the openly flaunted corruption and fraud conducted daily by the DC and Wall Street elite.   His message and the manner in which it is delivered appeals to a growing majority of Americans who, up until now, have felt powerless to do anything about the criminals who have overtaken our system.

Make no mistake, I’m not in support of Trump as President anymore than I am of Clinton. I’m just pointing out that Trump represents a voice in this country that has been snuffed out by a political process which has been overrun by the big money that has completely enslaved DC in its entirety.

The DC and Wall Street establishment are terrified by Trump.  He can self-fund his campaign and therefore is not dependent on the flood of money thrown at politicians by Wall Street, Big Pharma, Big Oil, Big Defense, Unions, Soros, Buffet and Walmart.  Perhaps emblematic of this is Fox News, which is Rupert Murdoch’s personal neocon propaganda generator. Fox News has thrown overt support behind every pathetic Republican contender except Trump.  I was quite entertained watching the network do it’s best to revive Jeb Bush from a political coma.  The network will probably still promote his candidacy even though it’s now buried along side Jimmy Hoffa.

After Super Tuesday establishes Trump as the outright leading candidate from either Party to be the next President, I expect that the inside elite will go to work implementing some kind of plan to sabotage Trump.   The Washington Post featured an article about 10 days ago which explained that the Republican “elite” are terrified of Trump:  GOP elites just became even more nervous about a Trump nomination LINK.

At this point in time if the Presidential election held today, I would bet big that Trump would be elected.   Because of this, the establishment DC and corporate/banking insiders are going to do what it takes to defy the voice of the public and do everything within their means to dispose of Trump.   It’s going to get weird, no doubt.

Make no mistake, democracy is dead in the United States.  Any last remnants were shattered with the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.  If you don’t know about this case and its significance, your “right” to vote should be revoked.

Beyond the fact that big money is completely in control of the Government, the election process in this country has been reduced to nothing more than the political reality tv version of The Jerry Springer show.  Casting a vote is nothing more than a time-wasting affirmation of one’s support for a system that has failed.  I’m sorry, Virginia, there is no Santa Claus and your vote does not matter.