Tag Archives: silver

Gold & Silver: Light At The End Of The Tunnel

Gold and silver and the mining stocks still have tremendous YTD gains despite the highly manipulated take-down that has been orchestrated since early Wednesday morning.  The smash has been executed entirely in the paper derivatives in London and NYC.   De rigeur for the Central Banks.

Eric Dubin discusses why we’ve probably seen the last of the downward manipulative pressure on gold and silver:  Gold and Silver Decline Is Fading, Dow Rolling Over  and Rory Hall published an article on Trump that accompanies the precious metals analysis and our Shadow of Truth episode to be released later today:  The Trump Trojan Horse

I moved checking account cash into my Bitgold account on Saturday, Sunday evening and this morning.  I shorted Capital One at the open today and added to my First Majestic calls. At least I put my money where my mouth is, unlike most of the alternative fear porn promoters…

Silver Signals The Flight To Real Safety Is On Again

Gold is powering higher because the dollar is dropping. The dollar index is down 1.7% in the last 3 1/2 trading sessions. It’s down 2.3% vs the euro in the last 5 1/2 days, down 2.1% vs the yen in the last 3 days and down nearly 2% vs. the Swissie since Sunday night.

This is NOT about the political chaos connected to the U.S. election. That’s a sideshow distraction to the real problems going on behind the scene.

The U.S. economy is starting to collapse. This is becoming glaringly evident from most of the data, notwithstanding the highly manipulated economic reports like auto sales.

The movement back into non-fiat assets is starting again – anything connected to debt, like housing, is a de facto fiat asset. The best indicator of this is not gold, but silver. Silver was correlating with SPX for most of October, when the investment “thesis” was “a strengthening economy is good for industrial metals.”

The graph below illustrates this. It shows silver’s movement vs. the SPX for the last 3 months:

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Silver correlated almost perfectly with the movement of the SPX for most of October (shaded area on the graph). But silver has moved up while the SPX has been selling off (including today, Nov 2nd) the past 4 trading sessions. This signals a switch from silver performing as an “industrial” metal to silver functioning as a “monetary” metal.

Certainly based on the gold-silver ratio, silver is extraordinarily cheap to gold and thus represents a prototypical “value” trade as the markets begin to accept and reflect economic reality and reject the politically-charge propaganda about a “healthy” economy coming from the Fed, the White House and the Democratic candidates.

IRD sponsor’s the Mining Stock Journal, which provides unique commentary and insight into the precious metals and mining stock market.  It also presents typically an under-followed junior mining stock investment idea and, when warranted, large-cap trade.  A few issues ago I recommended First Majestic calls.  As of today,  those calls are up over 50% from offer side at issue to bid side right now.   New subscribers also receive all of the back-issues.  You can subscribe by clicking here:  Mining Stock Journal.

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Gold Will Soar Regardless Who’s President

We can ignore reality but we can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.   – Ayn Rand

Perhaps the most infuriating aspect of last night’s final “debate” is the suppression of the truth.  Throughout all three debtes, Hillary overtly avoided answering any direct quetions regarding her infamous emails, thankfully put on display for all to see by Wikileaks.

Last night she pivoted right to blaming it on the Russians.  Talk about conspiracy theory. It is highly improbable that the Russians hacked her illegal email accounts for the purpose of influencing the election.  But Hillary used this sound-byte to deflect away from the Truth.  All of the Truths exposed by the leaked emails which point to Hillary’s criminal activity, including collusion with the media (CNN specifically) to rig the outcome of her primary race and selling access to the State Dept and to Wall Street Banks for donations to the Clinton Foundation.  Those are just two of many acts of criminality exposed by the emails.

But in Hillary’s world, Truth is a liability which would prevent her from ascending to the Oval Office where she can peddle and steal  her way from an 8-figure net worth to a 9-figure net worth. Maybe her nickname will be “three commas.”

That said, we hope Hillary is elected because her supporters will not only end up regretting their choice, but it will adversely affect them and their families forever.

Regardless of who wins the election, gold  and silver are getting ready for another surprising move higher.   The Harry Dent  Jr’s of the world will be left grasping for excuses for why their prediction for a much lower gold price is so horribly wrong.

We discuss the tragic U.S. Presidential election and the reason why gold is getting ready to take off again in today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth:

The Short-Sell Report On First Majestic Silver Is Fraudulent

In my last issue of the Mining Stock Journal (Sept 15), I featured trading opportunities in three large-cap mining stocks plus I explained why a recent buy recommendation from the National Inflation Association was a nothing more than a pump-n-dump operation.

Although the sell-off in AG stock was attributed to a highly negative report issued by Kerrisdale Capital, the truth is that the recent price correction in AG is a function of AG revising its full-year production outlook lower plus the correction in the overall sector. In fact, the short report issued by Kerrisdale – headed by a sleazy financial operator who was recently busted for a DUI and cocaine possession – was nothing more than a fraud-filled hit-job:

I noticed several problematic errors in his analysis. In fact, Adrange’s thesis and conclusion is an analytic disaster. I don’t know whether or not this guy has any experience with mining stock analysis but it was clear to me that he does not know what he is doing in this sector. Perhaps the most glaring error – in fact I have to wonder if it was intentional for the purposes of supporting his thesis – is that in valuing AG vs. other miners based on resources, he only uses measured & indicated resources. This is outright incompetence or fraud, or both.Mining Stock Journal, September 15, 2016.

I further lay out the case for why the current sell-off in AG stock is a great buying opportunity plus I recommend two other large-cap stocks (note: the Mining Stock Journal primarily focuses on relatively unknown junior exploration companies).

The NIA recently was promoting a junior mining stock with which I was not familiar. I did some research on it and had discovered that the NIA had been promoting it. The basis for the “strong buy” was entirely incorrect data presented. In fact, the assertions and data presented were either a product of unintentional incompetence or intentional misrepresentation.  I explain in my analysis:

The bottom line with the NIA report is that is almost entirely inaccurate and full of hyperbole. It’s clearly a report that was designed to facilitate a pump and dump operation. If you own this stock, take advantage of the recent move in the stock triggered by the NIA, and fueled by stock-trading chat board childishness, and unload your shares. I don’t want to assert that this company is a sham, but if it has any intrinsic value, it’s far below 10 cents/share.

In the next issue of MSJ, I’ll be featuring a little-known silver exploration company trading well below $1 that, in the words of the CEO, will eventually be $10-15 stock (Canadian $’s). After reviewing the story with CEO yesterday, I’m amazed that this stock receives almost no attention, even on trading chat-boards. You can access MSJ with this link, which includes receiving all the back-issues (via email):  Mining Stock Journal Subscription.

Full Metal (Gold And Silver) Price Manipulation

I’m not sure of the significance of 20 minutes past the hour, and I’m sure it has some sympbolic meaning to the gold manipulation cabal, but for the last week the price of gold has been getting slammed with an avalanche of Comex confetti at regular intervals at 20 minutes past the hour.

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THAT is not the graph of a market that is allowed to trade freely.   But notice how gold bounces back sharply from every take-down attempt.  This is especially significant given that this is one of the slowest seasonal periods of the year for the buyers of physical gold and silver.

This morning (Tuesday morning) was particularly blatant.  Gold had traded steadily higher overnight from $1344 (December futures basis) to $1364 just after the Comex floor opened for business (8:20 a.m. EST/6:20 a.m. MST).

Whenever the elitists start to lose control of gold, they roll out one of their Fed stool pigeons to threaten the world with a 25 basis point (one quarter of one percent) rate hike at the next FOMC meeting (September).   Today’s park bench popcorn scavenger was NY Fed President, Bill Dudley, who stated on Fox Business that a rate hike in September is “possible.”  I guess that means September’s meeting is a “live meeting” – a phrase Dudley and SF Fed Prez, John  Williams, propagated the mainstream media propaganda meat grinder with in May – LINK .

But gold shrugged off Dudley’s empty, Straw-man threats and closed today respectably up about $5 from the close of yesterday’s afternoon “access market” trading session.  I still believe that gold could see $1500 by Halloween despite the Comex B-52 paper bombs being dropped religiously on the market.  And we are just one economic, political or societal catastrophe from gold making a rapid run toward $2,000.

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Buy every manipulated sell-off in gold and silver.  It’s the true “TINA” idea.

A lot of readers have asked me if it’s too late to buy mining stocks at this point. I refer them to a long-term graph of GDXJ so they can see where the junior miners have been relative to the level at which they bottomed. It’s a prototypical chart of a market that is in the early stages of a massive move higher. The key is to identify the exploration companies that have a high probability of hitting the proverbial pot of gold. The last 5-years caused a lot of damage to the junior sector, but there’s a lot of companies with “a pulse” that have been revived, albeit significantly undervalued from a risk/return standpoint.

My Mining Stock Journal is focused on finding companies that are currently overlooked by the mainstream mining stock analysts and newsletters. As an example, I presented a stock idea in mid-April that is up over 280%. It recently doubled in price shortly after a major newsletter service poo-poo’d the idea. I draw on several seasoned veteran contacts plus 15 years of experience researching and investing in this sector. You can access the MSJ – a bi-weekly report – here:   Mining Stock Journal.

I just received your August 4 Stock Journal and before getting to your suggestion and half way through your guidelines for picking stocks I wanted to write this first. I have attempted to find those obscure companies and must say it is most difficult. Upon reflection I should have just waited on your bi-weekly report because your picks have been awesome. – “Jim”

The Stock Market Is A Weapon Of Massive Wealth Destruction

The discussion about p/e ratios and other valuation ratios derived from Company-issued GAAP accounting financials is idiotic.  The GAAP accounting allowances have been liberalized beyond a Bernie Sanders wet dream over the last 20 years.   The p/e ratio at the peak of the tech bubble is completely different from the p/e ratio at the top of the 2007 stock bubble which is completely different then the p/e ratio now.

If 1999’s or 2007 GAAP standards were applied to today’s earnings, the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 would be at least as high as 65 p/e ratio registered in 2007.   By several other metrics, most notably market cap/sales ratio, the current stock market is by far the most overvalued in history.

And that does analysis does not incorporate any adjustments for the fraud component of contemporary corporate accounting.

The S&P 500 and Dow are hitting all-time highs this week.   This was triggered by the Ben Bernanke influenced Bank of Japan decision to engage in “helicopter money” activity in an attempt to stimulate economic activity.  Notwithstanding the fact that Bernanke is likely the most destructive Central Banker in history, Japan’s decision will end in destruction of its currency.  Maybe that’s what the NWO’ers are working toward achieving anyway.

Interestingly, the U.S. stock market reacted counter-intuitively to Japan’s move.  The yen and other Asian currencies plunged vs. the dollar, making U.S. manufactured exports to Japan/Asia more expensive and making Asian imports into the U.S. cheaper.   This in turn will further depress U.S. corporate revenues and earnings, which have dropped 5 quarters in a row – likely a 6th quarter when we get to see Q2 earnings reports.   To label this response by the U.S. stock markets “idiotic” is an insult to the word “idiotic.”

Beneath the glow of a stock market on fire, the U.S. economy is collapsing, especially the consumer.  I’ve detailed the decline in a key consumer spending metric, dining out, to demonstrate that middle class disposable income is shrinking quickly.  The Canadian brokerage firm, Canaccord, released a report this morning which stated that, “said the firm’s checks indicate a material decline in sales and traffic trends in casual dining restaurants was seen in June LINK.

June auto sales came in below expectations.  This is despite a new record in auto debt issuance.  The auto debt bubble is starting to look a lot like the housing mortgage bubble of 2005-2008.

The price of oil is starting to drop quickly again.  Refiners are cutting crude oil orders quickly as demand for refined products slips as another oversupply condition has accumulated:  LINK.   The Fed and the TBTF banks have been working hard to keep the price of oil propped up.  They know all too well that a big bank balance sheet disaster looms if too many junk-bond financed companies go tits up all at once.  That will happen anyway and for that we can soon expect Helicopter Money in this country.

Speaking of Helicopter Money, Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, gave a speech in Australia in which she alluded the possibility of using “Helicopter Money” to stimulate economic activity.  Mester is a voting member of the FOMC. This tells us that the FOMC itself has been discussing the possibility of dropping bags of money on the population.

This reflects a Fed that is in a complete state of desperation about the collapsing economy.  $4 trillion in direct money printing plus several multiples of that amount of money injected into the system in the form of credit failed to stimulate real economic activity.  Why are they talking about even more?   Sure, housing and auto purchases using DEBT were stimulated, but that ship has sailed unless the Fed wants to give out money for down payments.

The Fed is even more desperate to keep the stock market elevated. If the stock market collapses, or just drops over 10% for an extended period of time – as in a few months – every single pension fund and insurance company in this U.S. will collapse.  It’s a simple as that.

In other words, the stock market is one big weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction.  You can protect yourself by unloading your non mining stock dollar-based “investments” and moving your money into physical gold and silver.

I am expecting a MONSTER move in the precious metals between now and the end of the year.  I will lay out an overview of my views later this week…I save details behind my analysis for subscribers to my Mining Stocks and Short Seller Journals…

 

Will Silver Hit $54?

With all the action in silver and gold on Sunday night July 3, 2016 we, at Shadow of Truth, thought we would provide a quick update on what has happened and what could potentially happen. Silver, in particular, looks very, very bullish. Dave breaks down all the technical charts and Rory provides some color commentary.

Some of this was inspired by our friend Jesse, Jesse’s Cafe Americain, in a recent article, Silver Cup and Handles Project to a Price Target of $54, Jesse shared the following:

I know some of you have been projecting these nested ‘cup and handle’ formations on your own, because several readers have sent their examples to me and have asked for comments.My first comment is the most important and I wish you to take it to heart.

Projections such as this are not forecasts, because the chart formations in these examples for the most part have not been ‘activated’ and are therefore merely potential things, possibilities, lines on a page subject to a great many exogenous forces and variables, including human and institutional decisions.

Only the cup and handle ‘a’ on the chart below has been activated and achieved fairly quickly I might add. We are now working on ‘b’ and it will not be activated unless the price of silver takes out 21.50 or so.

And then and only then if the price of silver in dollars holds that level with the kinds of retracements and pricing action one would expect to see as a confirmation of it can we say that the chart formation is active and ‘working.’ And even then it could fail. Continue Reading>>>

If you look at the following charts the picture it paints seems to be fairly clear. The first chart, weekly silver movement, clearly shows the first line being broken. The second line, approximately $27.00, is the next line of resistance. Once that line is broken, according to technical analysis, silver should run to the mid $30’s before it meets the next line of resistance.

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Will any of this happen? Your guess is as good as mine. What is 100% clear and undeniable – the first line of resistance has been broken and the algorithms should be entering the market. If silver stays above $20.30 overnight Monday July 4, 2016, the algo’s should kick in and it should be game on.

Bullion Banks Are Starting To Lose Control Of Silver

The Open Interest in silver is close to the new all time record high – set just last week – and gold’s Open Interest is at the same level as 2011 when gold hit it’s all time high in value. As you know the acquisition cost of gold is about $600 less than in 2011 which makes the Open Interest all the stronger. What will it be when gold really starts moving again?

In this episode of the Shadow of Truth’s Market Update, we dig into the signals being given by the market which indicate that the silver manipulation scheme is becoming unmanageable.  In addition, we discuss the ongoing global systemic financial and economic collapse.

John Embry: An Explosive Move In Silver Will Dwarf The Move In The Late 1970’s

I  can make the case, Dave, gold and silver may never have been cheaper than they are at the bottom in this cycle compared to the amount of money, and particularly debt, in the world. So, to me, this move we’ve had so far this year is, it’s like a rounding error. – John Embry, Shadow of Truth

It’s becoming more apparent on a daily basis that the Federal Reserve is attempting to exert complete control over the markets.  The Federal Reserve operates from its NY Fed trading base in conjunction with the  U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which operates in the same building as the NY Fed.   So much for the notion that the Fed operates independently of the Government.

But it’s not just the markets. It’s becoming more apparent to more people that same cadre of insider elitists who are rigging the stock market also do their best to rig the political process.  This is exemplified by the fact that the SEC announced yesterday that it is investigating the accounting methods of Alibaba.   This is eyebrow-raising because it’s quite obvious that Alibaba’s chief competitor, Amazon.com, has been engaging in fraudulent accounting practices for over two decades.

Oh, I forgot to mention that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post.  This is the perfect political hand grenade with which to threaten the DC politicians and political appointees if they were to start probing around Bezos and his enormous business Ponzi schemes.

This insider DC establishment did its best to derail Trump’s attempt at assuming the Oval Office throne.  But the fact that Trump set a record for Primary popular votes  made it next to impossible for the elitists to plausibly justify perverting the Republican convention nomination process with one of its lap-dogs like Romney or Rubio.

On the other hand, it looks like Hillary’s three decade crime spree is finally starting catch up to her. Something happened behind “the scenes,” because all of a sudden the State Department’s Inspector General decided that Hillary broke the law.  This is the first time in Hillary’s history that any official entity has held her accountable for a list of crimes that date back to her days as an attorney and the State of Arkansas’ “First Lady” (I use the term “Lady” very loosely).    Even MSNBC was on her case today.   Some group of unidentified insiders who operate at a level above Hillary have decided she’s not the one  to be their Oval Office pawn.

Meanwhile, the precious metals sector has sprung back to life after a 5-year period of an unabated manipulated price-thrashing of gold and silver.   Despite Goldman Sach’s incessant plea for $800 gold, the yellow dog ran from $1050 in mid-December to just over $1300 by the end of April.  A 24% rise in 4 1/2 months.  In the same period of time, silver ran up nearly 31%.  The mining stocks, per the HUI index, ran up just over 130% since January 19.   If the general stock market or any of the fast-moving sectors made moves like this, the meat with mouths on CNBC etc would be doing naked cartwheels on air every morning.

Rory Hall (The Daily Coin) and I hosted John Embry for a lively discussion of what is happening, why it’s happening and what might happen: