Phil Kennedy of Kennedy Financial invited me onto his podcast to discuss the latest FOMC comedy show, gold, silver, mining stocks, cryptocurrencies and the housing market.
Many of you have contacted me about the sell-off in GDXJ and upcoming re-balancing that will occur at the end of this week (I think). First of all, thank you for your inquiries and please feel free to email me with questions/ideas. The only “dumb” question regarding gold, silver and mining shares is, “should I own any?”
First I wanted to highlight the difference between fact and “propaganda.” The propaganda has led many to believe that the rebalancing of the GDXJ has exerted undue pressure on the mining stocks as a whole and on the GDXJ components specifically. However, a simple graphic analysis differentiates fact from fiction:
The graph above compares GDXJ, the HUI (green line) and GDX (purple line) since the GDXJ rebalancing was announced to the market on April 17th. As you can see, over the time since the GDXJ rebalance was announced, GDXJ has performed in-line with rest of the sector. I was a bit surprised when I ran that chart. In fact, on a YTD basis, GDXJ’s rate of return is almost identical to that of the HUI and GDX:
So where does this leave us? The entire sector has moved lower since early February. Maybe this was in anticipation of the GDXJ rebalancing “whispers” and maybe not. Often the miners will be hit before a manipulated take-down of the gold price is implemented. That narrative fits the chart above as well.
It’s important to distinguish the difference between the propaganda and truth, because that’s where money can be made in the markets. The truth is that the sector has sold off after a nice move from the mid-December 2016 low. But I also believe that the market is setting up for another big move into the 3rd and 4th quarters. It may take all summer for this to materialize, but the economic, financial and geopolitical fundamentals, as they are unfolding, weigh heavily in favor of big move higher in the precious metals sector.
One other point I would like to make – something that you WILL NOT HEAR from Wall Street or from Rickards or from the financial media: since bottoming in mid-December, the HUI is up 14.7%, GDX up 16.1% and GDXJ up 15.3% vs the S&P 500 which is up 7.7%. The mining stocks, since bottoming in mid-December, have outperformed the S&P 500 over the same time period through today (June 15, 2017).
Several of you have asked for ideas on the stocks in the GDXJ index that are “oversold” due to the rebalancing. As I’ve just demonstrated graphically and with ROR numbers, GDXJ has not really sold off since mid-April anymore than the larger-cap mining stocks in the HUI index and in GDX. Those are the numbers. I can’t make those up. It’s “narratives” that are fabricated.
Having said that, I did present two ideas in the Mining Stock Journal which happen to be in the GDXJ. One is up 6% since May 4th – and it has a lot higher to move – and the other is up 20% since June 1st, with a lot more left in the move.
A subscriber told me yesterday that a well-known subscription service that costs $1500/year is promoting 3 ideas from GDXJ. This is probably one of the services that is promoting the idea that the GDXJ has been hit unusually hard. I’ve shown above that idea is a false narrative. The Mining Stock Journal is $20/month with no minimum commitment. Subscriber turnover is exceptionally low for a reason. You can find out more about it here: MSJ Subscription Info.
Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler
In a series of articles posted on www.paulcraigroberts.org, we have proven to our satisfaction that the prices of gold and silver are manipulated by the bullion banks acting as agents for the Federal Reserve.
The bullion prices are manipulated down in order to protect the value of the US dollar from the extraordinary increase in supply resulting from the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) and low interest rate policies.
The Federal Reserve is able to protect the dollar’s exchange value vis-a-via the other reserve currencies—yen, euro, and UK pound—by having those central banks also create money in profusion with QE policies of their own.
The impact of fiat money creation on bullion, however, must be controlled by price suppression. It is possible to suppress the prices of gold and silver, because bullion prices are established not in physical markets but in futures markets in which short-selling does not have to be covered and in which contracts are settled in cash, not in bullion.
Since gold and silver shorts can be naked, future contracts in gold and silver can be printed in profusion, just as the Federal Reserve prints fiat currency in profusion, and dumped into the futures market. In other words, as the bullion futures market is a paper market, it is possible to create enormous quantities of paper gold that can suddenly be dumped in order to drive down prices. Everytime gold starts to move up, enormous quantities of future contracts are suddenly dumped, and the gold price is driven down. The same for silver.
Rigging the bullion price prevents gold and silver from transmitting to the currency market the devaluation of the dollar that the Federal Reserve’s money creation is causing. It is the ability to rig the bullion price that protects the dollar’s value from being destroyed by the Federal Reserve’s printing press.
Recently, the price of a Bitcoin has skyrocketed, rising in a few weeks from $1,000 to $2,200. Two explanations suggest themselves. One is that the Federal Reserve has decided to rid itself of a competing currency and is driving up the price with purchases while accumulating a large position, which then will be suddenly dumped in order to crash the market and scare away potential users from Bitcoins. Remember, the Fed can create all the money it wishes and, thereby, doesn’t have to worry about losses.
Another explanation is that people concerned about the fiat currencies but frustrated in their attempts to take refuge in bullion have recognized that the supply of Bitcoin is fixed and Bitcoin futures must be covered. It is strictly impossible for any central bank to increase the supply of Bitcoins. Thus Bitcoin is standing in for the suppressed function of gold and silver.
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that whereas Bitcoin cannot increase in supply, other cryptocurrencies can be created. In order to be trusted, each cryptocurrency would have to have a limited supply. However, an endless number of cryptocurrencies could be created that would greatly increase the supply of cryptocurrencies. If entrepreneurs don’t bring about this result, the Federal Reserve itself could organize it.
Therefore, cryptocurrency might be only a temporary refuge from fiat money creation. This would leave gold and silver, whose supply can only gradually be increased via mining, as the only refuge from wealth-destroying fiat money creation.
For as long as the Federal Reserve can protect the dollar by bullion price suppression and money creation by other reserve currency central banks, and as long as the Federal Reserve can keep the influx of new dollars out of the general economy, the Federal Reserve’s policy adds to the wealth of those who are already rich. This is because instead of driving up consumer prices, thus threatening the US dollar’s exchange value with a rising rate of inflation, the Fed’s largess has flowed into the prices of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds. Bond prices are high, because the Fed forced up the price by purchasing bonds. Stock prices are high, because the abundance of money bid prices higher than profits justify. As the US government measures inflation in ways designed to understate it, the consumer price index and producer price index do not send alarm systems into the markets.
Thus, we have a situation in which the Fed’s policy has done nothing for the American population, but has driven up the values of the financial portfolios of the rich. This is the explanation why the rich are becoming more rich while the rest of America becomes poorer.
The Fed has rigged the system for the rich, and the whores in the financial media and among the neoliberal economists have covered it up.
Silver Doctors / The News Doctors invited me onto their weekly SD Bullion Metals and Markets show to discuss why both the technicals and fundamentals are setting up for an unexpected rally into the summer in gold, silver and the mining shares, specifically the juniors.
Subsequent to our recording, the weekly Commitment of Traders report released Friday showed that the bullion banks continue to cover their net short positions in both gold and silver rather aggressively and the hedge funds are unloading long positions and piling into the short side. Historically, this has been a set-up for big moves higher in the sector. The hedge funds chase momentum and they are almost never right in the precious metals sector. When they pile into short positions, like they are now, it’s always a valid contrarian indicator. We also discuss why the “summer doldrums” in the precious metals sector is no longer a valid seasonal play.
Another contrarian indicator is the negative sentiment connected to the GDXJ ETF. Adam Hamilton wrote a non-compelling critique of GDXJ and made the assertion that GDXJ was diverting the flow of capital away from junior companies that deserve to get funding. The problem with this analysis is that retail investor buying of junior mining stocks on the secondary market is not a source of capital for junior mining companies. The secondary trading of stocks is not a source of capital for any stock, for that matter. ETFs are a “derivative” of the secondary trading market and thus are also not a source of capital for companies.
Junior mining stocks get their capital from new share issuance or from direct investment by strategic investors. If Hamilton bothered to call on the companies themselves rather than take quarterly filings and throw numbers into a spreadsheet as his primary tool of analysis, he would discover that many junior exploration CEO’s would tell him that they are getting a lot interest from strategic investors. Furthermore, many junior mining companies with investment-worthy stories are having no problem raising capital through primary share-issuance, notwithstanding the recent turmoil connected to GDXJ. GDXJ is a derivative security. Derivatives are a source of fees for their issuer/sponsors, not a capital raising conduit for companies.
The Mining Stock Journal focuses on the emerging junior exploration mining companies that are seeing an elevated level of investment interest from sophisticated private investment funds and from strategic investors. These are the stocks that offer the greatest upside-potential in the junior segment of the sector – not the larger-cap, developed companies in the GDXJ Trust. The latest issue features a company with a potentially prolific gold property that is in negotiations with a strategic investor. Two juniors featured in the Mining Stock Journal were acquired recently. Looking at companies one-by-one, not en masse, is how you find the potential home run stocks. You can learn more about investing in these opportunities here: Mining Stock Journal information.
Here’s the download for the latest SD Bullion weekly show: MP3 download and here’s the podcast:
Phenomenal movement lately with one of your stock picks, Dave, and I have no doubt it’s still in the first inning of what will be a very long game. Superb. Thank you! – subscriber “Mark”
Silver has gone from being the cartel’s kryptonite to being its LHC, or Large Hadron Collider. There are a lot of theories on what is going on with silver but the reality will probably be something even more fantastic. I keep getting back to lumber by way of comparison. The OI in silver is 55 times higher than in lumber, yet the global physical lumber market by dollar volume is actually higher. – quote from LeMetropole Cafe’s “Midas” Report
Those of us who have studied and traded silver for a long time (16 years in my case), have concluded that the Western Central Banks have painted themselves into a corner with their multi-decade effort to control the price of silver. Central Banks ran out of silver to unload on the market a long time ago. As such, they’ve had to resort to using paper derivative silver in the form of Comex futures, LBMA forward and OTC derivatives in their effort to cap the price of silver. In the last year, the amount of paper silver sold short against the available supply physical silver has grown into an astronomical number. At this point the banks can only pray that less than 1% of the longs each delivery period will continue to settle the contracts in cash…
“As a fiduciary, to the extent that you own gold and are going to own it a long time, it is not a trade….in the COMEX warehouse they had $80 Billion of open interest, and $2.7 Billion of deliverables….thats an easy one, you go get it.” -Kyle Bass
Kyle: “What if 4% of the people want delivery?”
COMEX Delivery Manager: “Oh Kyle that never happens. We rarely ever get a 1% delivery.
Kyle: “Well, what if it does happen?”
COMEX Delivery Manager: “Oh, well price will solve everything.”
Kyle: “I said thanks, give me the gold.”
Here’s the link to that interview with Kyle Bass: “I’ll Take My Gold, Please”
The Daily Coin chatted with GATA’s Bill “Midas” Murphy about the current degree of manipulation in the silver market. The banking cartel is trapped, in a sense. The only resolution of this dilemma is a much higher price of silver – the free market solution – or war:
On April 11th, the CME and England’s Royal Mint announced that they were testing a blockchain-based platform for trading gold. The product to be traded is a new crypto-coin called, Royal Mint Gold (“RMG”). The token will be issued by the Royal Mint and will represent the digitized version of 1 gram of gold. The gold will be stored in the Royal Mint’s vaults.
This news announcement was surprisingly overlooked by the alternative media, except for Rory Hall at his Daily Coin website: CryptoGold and Thieving Bankers. However, the fact that the CME is involved should have set off the smoke alarms throughout at least the segment of the alternative that seeks to shine the light of truth on precious metals trading and ownership. This is because the concept of a “new alternative way to trade gold” is an extension of the “fractional gold and silver bullion market” that is driven by the paper derivative precious metals products traded on the Comex and the LBMA.
The truth is that this new “blockchain-based” technology is nothing more than a mechanism to divert investor money away from taking delivery of actual physical gold and silver in the form of Royal Mint bullion coins and LBMA bars, thereby removing the availability of physical gold and silver that can be used for hypothecation. Furthermore, the new product is an extension of the institutional-level fractional bullion system that utilizes Comex/LBMA paper gold and silver contracts in order to fabricate the illusion that the buyers of those contracts have purchased legal ownership the underlying bullion bars. Below is an excerpt from the Royal Mint’s website which promotes the new concept:
RMG®, an innovative new product launching in 2017, will provide the investment performance of the London Gold Market with the transparency of an exchange-traded security. RMG holders will negate counterparty risk, by having direct ownership of physical gold bullion where each RMG represents ownership and full title to 1g of physical gold bullion held in the form of fully allocated, LBMA Good Delivery Bars within The Royal Mint’s vault.
We believe these features, coupled with the guarantee of zero ongoing annual management fees and free storage, represents one of the best and cost-effective ways to invest in physical gold today. At any time RMG can be redeemed for physical gold bars and coins produced by The Royal Mint, with physical delivery.
The basic tenet of the RMG is that “counter-party” risk is eliminated because the buyers are purchasing direct ownership of gold that is stored in the Royal Mint’s vault. However, the idea of custodial possession – where the owner trusts the safe-keeping of an asset with a third party – is in and of itself a primary source of counter-party risk. The first law of ownership of gold is that you do not fully “own” it until it is in your personal possession. Just ask the German Government.
The second myth in that statement above by the Royal Mint is the gold is held in the form of fully allocated LBMA Good Delivery Bars (in the Mint’s vault). This is GLD’s holy grail claim as well. The problem, again, is accountability. Until gold custodian’s are willing undergo a fully independent 3rd party audit at any time and without advance notice, it’s silly to assume that these custodians possess full, legal title to the gold they are reporting to be in their vaults. The poster-child example is the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has spent millions to avoid the prospect of a legally enforced audit of its gold vaults by a third party, fully independent auditor.
The Shadow of Truth discusses this new mechanism of deceit in today’s podcast and we explain why it’s riddled with counter-party risk and the potential for fraud on the same scale as Comex and LBMA gold and silver derivative products.
The paper silver open interest on the Comex is at all-time highs. The previous all-time high was 224k contracts when the price of silver was pushing $50 in 2011. The current paper silver open interest is 229k contracts with the price of silver at $18. At least the degree of fake silver open interest in silver was more appropriate to the price level at which silver was trading in 2011.
Having said that, the current paper silver open interest is entirely inappropriate relative to the amount of silver reported to be held in Comex silver vaults. 229 thousand silver contracts translates into 1.15 billion ozs of paper silver. That number represents about 37% more actual silver ounces produced by global by mining companies in one year. Compare that paper representation of silver to the actual 193 million ozs of silver reported to be held in Comex vaults, primarily “held” by JP Morgan which is reporting nearly 102 million ozs of silver in its vault.
Notwithstanding whether or not those 101 million ozs of silver are actually sitting physically in JP Morgan’s Comex-designated custodial vault (and much of it has likely been hypothecated), the amount of paper silver issued primarily by Comex bullion banks is nearly 6x the total amount of silver reported to be held in Comex vaults.
But it gets worse. The amount of silver that has been designated as available for delivery, or “registered silver,” is only 30 million ozs. In other words, the amount of paper silver issued by the Comex is 38x greater than the amount of silver made available to be delivered to the holders of those silver contracts.
The point here is that the Comex is likely the world’s most fraudulent market. In fact, It’s inappropriate to refer to the Comex as a “market.” The Comex is nothing but a mechanism by which the Fed, in conjunction with the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Comex bullion banks, exerts control over the price of silver.
The degree to which the Fed et al has to exert fraud in order to contain the price of silver is reflected by the absurd imbalance between paper silver contracts issued in relation to the amount of the underlying silver available for delivery. In any other commodity sector this situation would be labeled “criminal.” With silver and gold it’s labeled, “nothing to see here, move along.”
As with silver, the trading patterns in gold reflect a high degree of desperation by the bullion banks to contain the price and demand of physical gold. Interestingly, right now most of the blatant manipulation appears to be connected to the London p.m. gold fix activity on the LBMA. We believe it’s evidence of a growing shortage of physical gold available to deliver into India, China and other gold-buying countries. We explain this view in detail in today’s Shadow of Truth episode:
The next issue of the Mining Stock Journal, released this evening to subscribers, will have new junior explorer idea with 5-10x upside potential. It will also have an alternative explanation to the JNUG suspension of new unit issuance and why this could be very bullish for the sector. You can find out more about subscribing to the MSJ here: Mining Stock Journal Subscription Info.
The use of the term “animal spirits” is most commonly attributed to John Maynard Keynes. But it originates from the Latin term, “spiritus animales” in reference to the spirit that drives human thought, feeling and action. We saw animal spirits at work in gold and silver on Tuesday this past week when the Dow dropped 237 points and gold quickly popped up $16. Silver jumped 72 cents, much to Wall Street’s surprise, on March 16th after the FOMC issued its latest monetary policy statement despite an assurance that the Fed would raise rates three more times this year.
At some point the paper control of the gold market is going to fall prey to animal spirits. I think the reaction of the metals after the FOMC policy release and when the Dow plunged are evidence that “animal spirits” are percolating in the precious metals market. (Excerpt from yesterday’s issue of the Mining Stock Journal)
In the latest issue of the Mining Stock Journal I review a junior mining stock that was heavily promoted last summer ahead of a big issuance of stock. Many of you may own it thinking you sitting on junior with close to 20 million ounces of gold in the ground. What I found when I examined the background of management and quality of the alleged mineralization on the company’s properties, with no plans for advancing the properties, might shock you. This stock is down 50% from its highs last summer and insiders were dumping shares in September before the stock sold off. This is a stock you want to avoid and you can find out more about it by subscribing: Mining Stock Journal subscription info.
When I asked a colleague and subscriber who invests in junior mining stocks and participates in select financings if he had an opinion on the above-mentioned company, this was his partial response: “No, I have never looked at it principally because of the people behind it, who are well-known to front run their own subscribers.”
- Question: Why do Central Banks and Governments hate gold?
- Answer: Because they can’t print it
“An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.” – Alan Greenspan, “Gold and Economic Freedom”
Just like everything else in the western financial system, the paper trading markets are leveraged beyond redemption. The amount of paper “claims” on actual physical gold was estimated to be 100:1 in 2010. We can assure you that ratio is much higher now. On the Comex alone, for instance, if more than 9% of the April open interest in gold futures were to stand for delivery – based on the currently declared 1.4 million ounces of gold reported as being “available for delivery” (registered) – the Comex would default. The entire open interest in gold futures is 60x greater than the amount of gold available for delivery.
This is just the publicly traded paper gold derivatives. There’s also the shady world of OTC gold derivatives. We have no idea what kind of leverage is embedded in these contracts. But the total notional amount of OTC “precious metals” derivatives according to the OCC’s latest quarterly report on OTC derivatives (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) is over $28 billion. Just to highlight the degree to which the Government goes in order to hide the facts about the gold and silver market, the OCC used to break out OTC precious metals derivatives into the categories of “gold” and “silver and other.” Now the OCC reports just “precious metals.” What is it that the Government and banks are hiding?
The amount of leverage embedded in a Comex futures contract, based on the current amount of margin required, is about 25:1. There’s no telling how much leverage is embedded in the OTC derivatives agreements. All we know is that the disclosure requirements are becoming increasingly more opaque.
Silver futures began trading on the CBOT in 1969. But gold futures were not around until 1974, three years after the U.S. closed the gold window, completely disconnecting the dollar from gold. Gold futures were developed to enable the Fed and the U.S. Treasury to control the price of gold as a means of reinforcing the legitimacy of the dollar as a fiat currency used as the world’s reserve currency.
While the price of gold has been heavily manipulated since at least the 1960’s, when the U.S. was running out of enough gold to fulfill its obligations under Bretton Woods, the manipulation and “shock and awe” price attacks are used as a form of propaganda that is designed to discourage investors from converting fiat dollars into gold and silver. It’s a powerful weapon used by the Deep State against gold and economic freedom.
In today’s episode of the Shadow of Truth we discuss the manipulation of gold and silver and how it’s used by the Deep State to increase the Government’s control over the population:
These premiums [the ex-duty import prices being paid for legal kilo bar imports in India] are actually quite remarkable as the need to import kilo bars only arises if Indian demand is not satisfied by Dore imports (which had a duty advantage of $15.52/oz this afternoon) and smuggled gold. Reports of apprehensions at Indian airports are continuing to appear, indicating that smuggling has in fact revived. – excerpt from John Brimelow’s Gold Jottings Report (contact John at brimelowgoldjottings
The price of gold & silver have had a big move since mid-December, despite the flood of “fake news” connected to the temporary disruption of gold imports into India precipitated by Modi’s now-failed attempt to limit the ability of Indians to buy physical gold and despite the plethora of fake news about the quantity of gold flowing into China both before and after after the week-long Chinese New Year observance.
Brimelow goes on to assert in one of his Monday updates that, “Viewed from a US-centric and technical perspective, gold’s friends have something to worry about. However the Asian buying is about as strong as it ever usually gets and for that reason the Bears’ prospects are probably limited.” Note, the “technical perspective” indirectly references that use of paper gold by the western bullion banks in their attempt to control the global price of gold.
As an example of the price-control mechanism implemented in the western paper market, you’ll note that after a surprise bounce in gold on Friday, likely stimulated by paper short-covering on the Comex, was met with an attack after the Monday a.m. LBMA gold price “fix” and again right after the Comex floor paper gold trading commences:
These are typical times during the day, when the physical gold buying markets in the east are closed for the day and the western paper market manipulators take control of global gold trading via LMBA forwards and Comex futures and OTC derivatives.
Just as notable about Friday’s move higher in gold during NY trading hours is that fact that the price was moving in correlation with a move higher in both the dollar index and the U.S. stock market. Often, there is an inverse correlation between gold and the USDX/Dow/SPX.
There’s is an “invisible hand” in the market pushing the prices of gold and silver higher in defiance of the attempted price control schemes being exerted in London and New York. This silent operator is without the pressure being exerted in the physical market.
This week I’m sure will prove to be a bit of a price roller-coaster, as the semi-annual “Humphrey-Hawkins” (as it used to be called) Fed Chairman testimony on monetary policy and the economy is a time used by the western CB’s and bullion banks to control the price of gold using paper. After all, they can’t have the price of gold moving higher when the Fed’s El Hefe is extolling the virtues of the fiat currency and fractional banking system in front of Congress and the world, which begins today.
The point here is that it’s my view that the next longer term trend move in gold is higher, which means that price attacks should be used as buying opportunities, both for the metal and the mining shares. In fact, the mining shares were quite stubborn about going lower when gold was being hit hard in New York after being hit hard in London. Typically this is a signal to the market that prices in the precious metals sector are going higher.