Tag Archives: yield curve

Has The Fed Actually Raised Rates This Year?

The answer is debatable but it depends on, exactly, to which rates you are referring.  The Fed has “raised,” more like “nudged,” the Fed Funds target rate about 50 basis points (one-half of one percent) this year.  That is, the Fed’s “target rate” for the Fed Funds rate was raised slightly at the end of two of the four FOMC meetings this year from 50 to 75 basis points up to 1 – 1.25%.  Wow.

But this is just one out of many interest rate benchmarks in the financial system.  The 10-yr Treasury yield – which is a key funding benchmark for a wide range of credit instruments including mortgages, municipal and corporate bonds, has declined 30 basis points this year.  Thus, for certain borrowers, the Fed has effectively lowered the cost of borrowing (I’m ignoring the “credit spread” effect, which is issuer-specific).

Moreover, the spread between the 1-month Treasury Bill and the 10-yr Treasury has declined this year from 193 basis points to 125 basis points – a 68 basis point drop in the cost funding for borrowers who have access to the highly “engineered” derivative products that enable these borrowers to take advantage the shape of the yield curve in order to lower their cost of borrowing:

In the graph above, the top blue line is the yield on the 10-yr Treasury bond and the bottom line is the rate on the 1-month T-bill.  As you can see the spread between the two has narrowed considerably.

Thus, I would place the news reports that the Fed has “raised in rates” in the category of “Propaganda,” if not outright “Fake News.”

One has to wonder if the Fed’s motives in orchestrating that graph above are intentional. On the one hand it can make the superficial claim that it is raising rates for all the reasons stated in the vomit that is mistaken for words coming from Janet Yellen’s mouth;  but on the other hand, effectively, the Fed has managed to lower interest rates for a widespread cohort of longer term borrowers.

Furthermore, this illusion of “tighter” monetary policy serves the purpose of supporting the idea of a strong dollar and enabling a highly orchestrated – albeit temporary – manipulated hit on the gold price using paper gold derivatives.

To borrow a term from Jim Sinclair, the idea that the Fed has “raised rates” is nothing more than propaganda for the primary purpose of “MOPE” – Management Of Perception Economics.  On that count, I give the Fed an A+.

30-yr Treasury Yield: “The Economy Is Collapsing”

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We know that inflation is running a lot higher this year – true inflation, that is, and not the phony Government CPI.  Thus, low inflation would not explain the 80 basis point drop in long bond yields since January 1st.   “Flight to safety” would flow either into the very short end of the yield curve or into gold or under the mattress.   Therefore, it is apparent to me that the Treasury bond market is starting to price in economic armegeddon.   This will mean deflation of asset prices (stocks, homes, crappy Wall Street concoctions) but not necessarily deflation of necessities.

With retail sales, auto sales,  and home sales all collapsing, the only explanation left is that the Treasury bond market is pricing in a severe economic downturn.    This would explain also why high yield bond spreads have widened considerably over the past month.  The big drop in oil prices this week would further affirm this.

For anyone who is reading this and has invested in my Easy Trade Idea from the end of July, I used to today’s low volume pullback in the stock to add to our position in the fund by shorting slightly in the money puts that expire tomorrow.  If the price closes below the strike tomorrow, we will take delivery of more shares with a cost-basis reduced by the amount of put premium we collected today.