With the release of the latest BLSBS at 8:30am EST, the market interventionists were set up for a spectacular effort today. The S&P was first out of the gate, to the upside of course, and the precious metals were slammed. Ironically, the impulse triggered by the headline jobs report should have effected the stock market and the precious metals similarly.
How are 100’s of thousands of working age people leaving the labor force yet, somehow, the BLS can report hundreds of thousands of new jobs that were filled? Well, there is the “Birth/Death Model”. The Birth/Death Model, much like the Federal Reserve Note, is just made up out of thin air. A number is determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and then entered into the BLS report. It has nothing to do with reality. But someone forgot to tell the BLS that construction spending in June was down nearly 10% year over year from last June because the BLS reports that new construction businesses added 11,000 new jobs to the economy – an economic and statistical extreme improbability.
If there were any markets that actually moved in accordance with fundamentals, natural price discovery or anything associated with reality the S&P and Dow Jones would be moving to the downside as well. Why? Because as Dave explains in the latest Shadow of Truth, if the [equities] markets were sensing the Fed was going to raise interest rates, and if the employment report were based in reality the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates, this would be negative for those indices. But, alas, everything is rigged, so it doesn’t matter. The “market saved us again…”
Alas, I am sensing that reality will never prevail and cause a melt-up in gold and silver prices. The one thing that is in our favor is the inevitable decline in the US dollar, which is well underway, having come down about 10 cents from its high. And since Trump wants the dollar to fall, it probably might. The FED may choose to defend the dollar with interest rate hikes but that will kill the golden goose, and they may concede that the outcome of dollar falling will be a boost in stimulative export activity without the FED having to lower interest rates, which is in effect, a disguised rate cut. Since they hate Trump so much, I think they will probably hike anyway to blame him for his “bad” policies, when it is really just the hangover from the previous kickers of the can down the road. This way the criminal banking underworld can crash the economy, the stock market, and of course, gold and silver prices, and mop up trillions more of our wealth. By now, the retail market should already recognize the scam in progress, and refuse to sell ANY assets, no matter how low they go, and wait out the bankers, giving them nothing. Gold and silver reigns supreme as non inflatable money.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
Thomas Jefferson
I’m really not concerned about the smash downs in gold
and silver any longer. It has become so obvious that every
time these paper raids occur the push downs are shallower
and the bounce back much faster. The internals of the market
are terrible, a few stocks propping up the Dow and S&P.
Watch how the Dow and S&P futures trade, if that’s what you
want to call it. The P.P.T. is levitating these indexes on vapor
in the middle of the night and spiking them on the open. During
the day the indexes go nowhere. Me thinks that soon we will see
some real damage and that is why paper smashes do not affect
my psyche.
Yes. I agree with you.
Great discussion always guys. I woulddalso add that government labor regulations have not only decimated incentives to hire, but have also totally twisted the hiring process in favor of incompetent employees. Basically, since the PTB can’t outright nationalize everything for fear of reprisal, they instead have opted to TRANSFORM the private labor market to be just as beaucratic and corrupt over time. Today, it’s safe to say that many unemployed individuals were replaced by an inferior substitute for the sake of compliance, and we see this in robotics all the way to cheap foreign labor . We may as well be in France in some parts of he U.S. when we consider insane labor restrictions.
Of course, nothing wrong with innovation or competition…in a free market. Trouble is, there is none. Pretty soon, if this keeps up, we’re going to see not only a flight of capital, but also a flight of competence as productive workers flee the country. Idiocracy at its finest.
As my friend Chuck Butler of the “Daily Pffenig” says, the BLS Report is a complete farce. At least the ADP numbers have some credibility. The only position that saved my a$$ today were 600 shares of DUST I’ve been holding since WED in anticipation of this crap.
I believe we may see a low GDX c. $21.97 MON/TUE, then rocket up from there in correspondence with a large market downturn.
ADP has no credibility either. It rigs its sample populations and it uses the same exact seasonal adjustment program as the BLS
Hi Dave and Rory,
I make a point in visiting your websites only and never youtube. Considering what you guys do for us, its the least I can do. Enjoy the weekend gentlemen.
Sometimes I think the paper markets are nothing more then just one big circle jerk (excuse my French). But to me no sane player besides the bullion banks and miners should be there anymore (ok, maybe hedge funds but they should know better).
Regards,
Hugo
Thanks Hugo
The Madness Is Back: Homeowners Take Out Mortgages To Buy Bitcoin, Cars And Wine
It’s been about a decade since the term “mortgage arbitrage” made headlines. It’s back.
In the clearest sign yet of just how late far the investing cycle the developed world finds itself, the FT writes that wealthy British homeowners are again borrowing against their property to invest in bonds, equities, alternative investments or commercial property as the low cost of debt creates opportunities for “mortgage arbitrage”. And while taking out a mortgage to invest in “safer” arbs like corporate bonds, commercial real estate or private equity would be at least understandable, if not excusable, in the current low-yield regime, some more extreme “investment” decisions suggest that the madness and euphoria that marked the peak of the last asset bubble is back: because while growing numbers are prepared to risk using their primary residence as collateral, some are ready to gamble on extremely volatile assets like bitcoin, wine and cars.
One broker said a mortgage-free homeowner with a house valued at £10m had taken out a fixed-rate loan of just under £2m to buy bitcoin, the crypto currency that has seen huge volatility in recent months. Others have invested in classic cars or fine wine. One former banker took out a £500,000 mortgage, not for investment purposes, but to provide a fund for routine spending and other eventualities.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-06/madness-back-homeowners-take-out-mortgages-buy-bitcoin-cars-and-wine?
Wealthy borrowers use home loans to bet on stock market
One homeowner uses a £2m mortgage to bet on bitcoin
https://www.ft.com/content/d175fc82-76a7-11e7-90c0-90a9d1bc9691
Simon Mikhailovich @S_Mikhailovich
Everyone knows that real econ. resources are limited & yet no one questions the value of limitless claims being issued against those assets.
https://twitter.com/S_Mikhailovich/status/893487185172869120