The mainstream media version of Dan Norcini was out today with yet another vacuous warning about gold. Recall that Mark Hulbert was the mainstream media idiot who ranted and raved as recently as July that gold was only worth $800: Gold Might Be Up This Year, But It’s Worth Only $800.
Where does Marketwatch find these guys? Seriously. Now that his $800 call has proved to be heinously wrong, he’s out warning that gold will be volatile: Irrational Exuberance: Expect Gold To Be Massively Volatile
Thanks for the reminder, Mark, that markets tend to go and down because buyers and sellers have differing opinions and exert those opinions with variability in the degree of their relative efforts.
Hulbert’s witches brew “sentiment” indicator is telling him that gold is going lower. I’m guessing it’s the same magic potion that whispered sweet nothings in his ear about $800 gold…
Gold has been forced lower by western Central Banks and Governments dumping cargo-load upon cargo-load of paper gold onto the market – and an occasional multi-hundred tonne pallet of Central Bank custodial gold onto the LBMA for added effect. Like all cartel-manipulated activity, the party had to come to an end eventually.
The problem with snake-oil covered “econometric models” and other such statistical hocus-pocus is that the forumulas are based on the assumption that the input-data embody a certain degree of “normalcy.” However the data-pool for the price-behavior of gold over the past five years has been anything but “normal.”
Au contraire, Mark, in case you have not noticed – which you probably have not given that your focus is centered on the “irrational exuberance” of “sentiment” sampling – every time they try to smash gold during exceptionally low volume time periods, gold bounces back. Silver is outperforming gold on smash days and underperforming gold on rally days. At some point silver will begin to outperform gold on rally days and that’s when it will be “lights out” for anyone short the precious metals
As an aside, my latest issue of the Short Seller’s Journal will be sent to subscribers this Sunday. I’ve picked out construction industry stock that has at least $100 to fall before this bear market is over and I also have “quick hit” scalp idea that will pay off next week if this bear market dead-cat bounce is over.
One other metric Dave, is the gold/silver ratio.
Currently sitting at 1 : 79.85
The average ratio over the past 40 years has been 42.8
This portends a true price of silver at $28.76 per ounce at that ratio.
Using the very long term average ratio of 1 : 16 this says $76.94 per ounce.
No matter which its sliced, silver is undervalued and will rebound.
I bet it eventually goes below 10
Dave “statistical hocus pocus” everthing you have been writing about in the las 2-3months IMO so close to the mark it’s truly is scary …these people truly believe they can warp time…transmigrate…blah..blah …your blogs are so truthy might pay to be very, very careful…..i’ve noticed a huge uptake in paranoid dufflepuds’ on all these …alternative financial news sites…just starting to get their heads around the plain dumb size of the numbers involved…
Another hero on the gold market, Mr Jeff Curry from Goldman Sachs :
Gold will slump to $1,100 an ounce in three months and $1,000 an ounce in 12 months
Peter Schiff said the goal of his call is to protect Goldman’ short position.
You know Arthur every site you go to accept mr Dynamics…the gold dissing slugs are in full force…lizard, alien, banning gold, police state, hysterical conspiracy smoke screen bullshit…seriously In the 12 odd years I’ve been following I have never seen the bullshit meter so high..i.m.o they are panicking pure simple… You’ve got assholes Dent, Armstrong that have obviously leveraged in to the US dollar.with armies’ of idiots buying into the cash is king argument….talking their own book up….I’ve never seen bullshit like this……
I quickly scanned Hulbert’s article to see there was no mention of market manipulation. I then left the article, as any and all analysis of gold’s current or future market performance or value, measured in fiat currency, is useless trash without taking into account that which has been painstakingly documented over many years.
In articles or interviews about anything there is at least one component or factor, without which the communication is flawed at best. It is useful for people to develop the combination of knowledge about a topic, and the ability to think logically, to better discern the truth.
In the case of this man I do not know if he is a shill or if he really believes what he wrote. One is not a good indicator of integrity, the other an indicator of ignorance and/or stupidity.
What is gold worth right now? What someone is willing to pay for it on the open market today. So as of the close of the markets in Europe and the U.S. today, gold is ‘worth’ about $1,220 per ounce. But the key is having the physical gold in your possession, versus the paper gold, ETF’s, and the like. It is oversold currently at 500 paper ounces to 1 physical one. When investors begin to realize this, then I would guess the price per ounce will go up. Ditto for silver.
I must confess that I do look MW regularly. It feels like stuff you know you shouldn’t look at but do anyway! Of course it is the sales arm for the Dow but occasionally posts the odd article against the lame steam media PR line.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” . – Mahatma Gandhi
I think we are in the second stage – being laughed at.
When the hate’n really starts we are going to know we are not far off winning imho.
ROFLMAO: ” It feels like stuff you know you shouldn’t look at but do anyway” good call!
Dave. If you haven’t seen this article yet, it will melt your mind.
This is spreading around the globe. Good thing it can never happen
This Is What Happens To Gold When Citizens Lose Faith In Fiat Currency
One might take Mark Hulbert with a grain of salt and a skeptical eye.
He is the same guy who said Gold was going to collapse to 800 in 2016.
Is he just wrong or driving an agenda to talk down the economy.