

Articles
Is The CME Preparing For An Eventual Comex Default?
Orwell would blush over what’s being done to our system if he were alive. – Investment Research Dynamics...I think a lot of precious metals futures contracts are going to undergo a disappearing act. – John Titus of BestEvidence
The CME curiously reported that it received notice from the Federal Reserve that it is authorized to open an account at the Fed which would “allow it to better safeguard cash deposited by its traders” CME/Fed Account.
This is event is notable for several reasons. First and foremost is the fact that the CME was designated as a “systematically important” financial institution as part of the Dodd-Frank “hoodwink the taxpayer” Act. If anyone can explain to me why a corrupted derivatives clearinghouse and trading exchange is “systematically important,” I will receive the explanation with an open mind.
To be quite frank, no bank is systematically important, especially the big banks which are continuously wrist-slapped for committing criminal acts of fraud and screwing the public. As has been demonstrated, the “systematically important” designation is nothing more that a guarantee to the banks that Taxpayer money will be tapped to ensure bonus payments may remain uninterrupted in the event of a bank collapse.
Another puzzling aspect of the CME’s decision to open a custodial account at the Fed is in the CME’s statement that the Fed account will allow it to better “safeguard” cash deposited by its traders. Note that the account is limited to “clearing members proprietary margin” accounts. This would be the cash put up by Comex clearing members – like the Too Big To Fail Banks (JP Morgan, Goldman, Citi, HSBC etc) – against margin requirements.
Why is a Fed custodial account any better than a custodial account held by a big bank? Is this an unintended signal from the Fed that the big banks are no longer safe as custodians of cash deposits?
To me this reeks of the CME enabling a mechanism that “ring-fences” any cash equity put up by clearing members for the purposes of protecting that cash against an event of default or bankruptcy. It would give the CME control over this cash. This is what occurred when Jon Corzine incinerated MF Global and JP Morgan was able to grab any and all available collateral for its own benefit.
Again, this suggests to me that CME is concerned about the risk embedded in the proprietary futures and derivatives positions of its clearing members. I would suggest that the CME is specifically nervous about the precious metals futures positions held by JP Morgan, HSBC and Scotia.
With the absurd imbalance between Comex gold/silver contracts and the amount of underlying physical gold/silver bars held at the Comex for delivery, it’s not a question of “if” the Comex eventually defaults but a question of “when.” Anyone who disagrees with this assertion is either in a state of pathetic denial or appalling ignorance.
Don’t forget that Comex contracts have a “force majeur” provision which enables the cash settlement of these contracts. Given that the outrageously large short positions in gold and silver futures contracts are primarily held by the big banks, who also happen to be clearing members, the move by the CME to ring-fence cash collateral at the Fed which is deposited by the big banks who are short gold/silver futures expressly suggests that an event of default may be closer than any of us realizes.
Is The Fed Preparing For The Next Financial Earthquake To Hit?
The Fed announced a series of three “expedited procedure, closed” meetings Monday thru Wednesday this week: FRB Board Meetings. The Monday meeting was allegedly “a review and determination by the Board of Governors” of the advance and discount rates charged by the Fed. This is somewhat an absurd waste of time as both of those bank funding mechanisms have become antiquated and rarely used. The discount window collects dust until a specific bank’s credit profile has collapsed to an extent that prevents it from accessing the interbank-lending market. It’s seen as an act of desperation. It’s doubtful that the meeting was convened to discuss the discount rate.
The announced subject matter of the two subsequent meetings are perhaps of more interest: “bank supervisory matter” (Tuesday) and “periodic briefing and discussion on financial markets, institutions, and infrastructure” (Wednesday).
I find the latter two topics in the context of the fact that it appears that the European banking system – to which the U.S. Too Big To Fail Banks are inextricably tied – appears to be melting down.
For me the “tell tale” for the western financial system is Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank has emerged as a “rogue” bank of sorts that had taken on a catastrophic amount of reckless credit market risks. Nothwithstanding its literal financial nuclear portfolio of derivatives, DB thrust its balance sheet into every sector of the global economic system that has been melting down over the past 12-24 months including energy, commodities, “Club Med” European banks and junk bonds. It also began to choke to death on bank debt loans to companies like Glencore and Volkswagen.
The trading action in DB’s stock price has been unable to mask the underlying melt-down going on at the Company:
As you can see, DB’s stock price has been significantly underperforming the BKX bank financial index since mid-July. Coincidentally, or perhaps not coincidentally, the S&P 500 suffered an 11% drop in mid-August.
Bloomberg News released a report about three weeks that surprisingly received little to no commentary in the alternative media world. It was reported that Goldman and JP Morgan were in discussions to buy $1.1 gross “notional” amount of DB’s distressed credit default swaps (LINK). That in and of itself was not necessarily interesting, but the article reported that DB had already sold off two-thirds of its distressed CDS swap book to since October 2015 to Citicorp. The CDS securities were “single-name” direct (not cleared thru DTC) OTC derivatives, meaning they are of the riskiest, most unregulated and most toxic variety.
If you notice on the graph above, around the time that DB was engaged in selling some of its toxic waste to Citi in October, the stock began take a dive and it began to diverge negatively from the rest of the big bank stocks.
I would suggest, and have been suggesting, that there’s been a series of mini-melt downs that have been occurring in the western financial system since late last summer. I also have written analysis which has connected these melt-downs to Deutsche Bank and has connected the “stick saves” in the markets to the Fed.
I’m suggesting here that the Fed is behind the Citi, Goldman and JP Morgan CDS transactions with Deutsche Bank as means of preventing DB’s collapse. After all, the TBTF fail banks in the U.S. are catastrophically tied to Deutsche Bank – and the entire European financial system – via derivatives.
Last week Deutsche Bank’s stock began to sell-off hard again. On Monday and Tuesday DB’s stock dropped 6.6% and was down as much as 9%, significantly underperforming its peers.
It’s my view that the Fed has been conducting an ongoing de facto bailout of Deutsche Bank since mid-summer, using the balance sheets of Citi, Goldman and JP Morgan as its proxies. In the context of the behavior of DB’s stock recently, and in the contex of what is now blatant market intervention in the stock market by the Fed, and in the context of the news of the bank bail-in Austria plus the collapsing Italian banks, I would suggest that “expedited rule, closed door” meetings held by the Fed this were convened in order to discuss the a western financial system which is obviously beginning collapse again.
I would also suggest that the Fed is inching closer to implementing more drastic monetary easing policy measures, which could include taking short rates negative and will likely include more money printing – either overt or cleverly disguised.
This is why gold and the mining stocks have been somewhat “melting up” despite the recent flood of anti-gold propaganda pouring from Wall Street and the mainstream media. It is likely that the “melt-up” in the precious metals space has a lot more “melting up” to do…
I’m finishing up my work on the mining stock that will be presented in the next issue of the Mining Stock Journal (released Thursday). This is an undiscovered Company that trades under 50 cents and it worth several times it’s current market cap just on its royalty properties. Oh by the way, it’s in the midst of drilling what appears to be a massive copper/gold porphyry in an area that has been previously ignored. Click here to access the Mining Stock Journal.
SoT – John Titus: The Only Solution Is A Revolution
The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater. – Frank Zappa
Complete criminality has engulfed the United States’ political and economic system. Perhaps the poster-child for this plight is Bill and Hillary Clinton. It was during Clinton’s presidency that the business and political environment transitioned into a new era in this country in which corporate and political crimes began to go largely unpunished. And now Hillary Clinton, who has been committing acts of criminality dating back to her husband’s term as the Governor of Arkansas, is the front-runner to be the next President.
It is likely that even George Orwell would be horrified by this
Take Drexel Burnham and Michael Milken for example. Drexel was caught and found guilty for several acts of criminality during its reign as the “junk bond” king. Drexel was liquidated and Milken actually spent time in jail.
Fast-forward to the present. Goldman Sachs is fined $5 billion for fraud connected with its role in the mortgage market. No jail time for anyone involved and no disgorgement of personal money (bonuses) paid out that was connected with the criminal activity.
Whereas Drexel Burnham played a large role in the collapse of Savings and Loans institutions in the late 1980’s, Goldman’s fraudulent activity contributed to the housing and mortgage bubble and the subsequent de facto collapse of the banking system. For it’s role, Goldman was bailed out by the taxpayers. If Drexel had been around in after 1995, rather than up until 1989, Drexel would have been slapped with a fine and Milken would have avoided jail. Milken should be quite bitter about this.
The entirety of Congress is corrupt – they’re all basically a criminal enterprise – the Department of Justice is entirely corrupt, the entire Executive Branch is corrupt. And really that leads to the Judiciary and frankly there aren’t too many jurists who are awake and aware of what’s going on…you’ve really hobbled your Goverment by taking out two and a fraction of three Branches of Government. So that’s why I say your only solution colletively is a revolution. You have to jettison this entire Government to get us back on equal footing. – John Titus on the Shadow of Truth
The Shadow of Truth hosted John Titus of Best Evidence to discuss the implications of the elimination of the Rule of Law in the United States, gold and the hidden meaning behind the Panama Papers.
There’s so much “weirdness” going on right now that at a gut level I have a very difficult time believing that a manufactured event of some type is coming that is going to shake things up [like 9/11]… If the Panama Papers are any indication, I think a lot of people who think they’re part of the elite are gonna find out otherwise, and soon. – John Titus
Welcome To Dystopia: The Panana Papers And Ridiculously Cheap Silver
Sprott Asset Management announced a secondary offering of its PSLV silver trust on Friday. If the over-allotment option is exercised, the deal will raise approximately $86 million. At today’s price of silver ($15.95), that would translate into 5.4 million ounces of silver. I believe that the bullion banks are having more issues sourcing silver than gold to deliver into paper bullion commitments (Comex futures, LBMA forwards and possibly OTC derivatives). It will be interesting to see if Sprott ends up having delays in getting the silver it buys for this offering.
The News Doctors and Wall St. for Main Street released another episode in which they discuss the Sprott offering, the Panama Papers and other timely controversial issues. You can listen to their discussion here: Welcome To Dystopia Episode 18.
Guest Post: Moving to the Post LBMA-Era Gold Price Reset
The LBMA appears now to be in an intractable and rapidly degenerating position – with the vaulted gold available outside of the Bank of England and ETF holdings largely gone from London, how do you manage the appearances of a spot gold market with turnover of 200M oz per day and a massive open interest? While gold flow from the miners provides some liquidity and enables the LBMA paper gold market to provide some gold delivery and suppress gold prices, it is obvious that a massive gold event has occurred and that this paper market will not be the same given increased pressure for physical delivery. The London market cannot sustain any material gold withdrawal as occurred in 2013.
You can read the rest of this article by Dave Jensen here: Watch Out
Avoid Or Short Kinder Morgan: The Reasons May Surprise You
Kinder Morgan has amassed the largest midstream gas transporation asset base in the United States. It did this primarily through the aggressive use of debt issuance to fund acquistions. In order to fund its dividend and related dividend growth rate policy, Kinder issued even more debt rather than pay out a dividend using internally generated funds. This is not unlike a standard Ponzi scheme. It is the view of IRD that Richard Kinder has managed KMI for his personal benefit rather than for the benefit of long term shareholders. IRD recommends selling this stock if you own it and finding other investment ideas if you are considering buying it.
Click here for access to this report: IRD’s Kinder Morgan Report
Junior Mining Stocks: A New Bull Market On Steroids
Apparently that imbecilic Goldman Sachs commodities analyst, Jeff Currie, was on CNBC’s Power Lunch urging viewers to short gold. He’s been wrong since his initial $800 target on gold he set about 2 years ago. In fact, using Currie as a contrarian indicator for buying gold has become possibly more reliable that the legendary “Cramer” and “Gartman” contrarian indicators.
What you won’t hear discussed on CNBC, or Bloomberg or Fox Biz for that matter, is the powerful move that’s being made in the mining stocks, especially the junior mining stocks. Since hitting a low of 100 on January 19, the HUI is index is up 94% as I write this. If the SPX or Dow went up 94% in 2 1/2 months, Maria Bartiromo and Liz Clayman would be doing naked cartwheels on tv.
The junior miners as represented by the GDXJ ETF since January 19th is also up 94%. But the GDXJ is not a true junior mining stock index. Many exploration stocks are up 300-400% YTD. And they are still substantially below the highs they reached in 2010 and early 2011. I pointed out earlier this year that the HUI index doubled from late October 2008 to December 31, 2008 – and then it more than doubled again over the next 2 1/2 years. I suggested that not only could it do that again, but this time around the move would be even more more powerful and produce an even bigger rate or return ultimately.
Why? Over the last 4 1/2 years the valuation of mining stock sector relative to price of gold reached its lowest point in history. I don’t time to dig up the graphs illustrating this that have been published recently, but the HUI graph on the right somewhat demonstrates this point. The HUI index closed on April 7 at 186 with gold around $1230. As the graph shows, the HUI hit 186 in early 2003 with gold at $350. In other words, in the early years of the emerging secular gold bull market, in relation to the price of gold the larger cap mining stocks were valued at nearly 3 1/2 times greater than their current level of valuation.
The beat down in the junior miners over the last four-plus years was even worse. Many of them with proved gold/silver in the ground were trading at valuations below the amount of cash they held on their balance sheet. The good quality exploration juniors had become insanely cheap.
The current trading action in the miners, especially the juniors, reminds me of the 2002-2003 period, when the sector was largely ignored by the entire market other than a contingent of crazy “goldbugs.” Back then – like now – stocks would take turns jumping up 20-30% in one day, often on no event news. I likened the action to that of watching popcorn pop: you didn’t know when an individual kernel might pop but you knew that at some point almost all of them would.
The market action currently is quite similar to back then. The juniors have been beaten down to the point at which no one except hardcore precious metals participants are buying them and idiots like Jeff Currie are running around advising everyone to short the sector. The graph of GDXJ on the left (click to enlarge)shows how minor the recent move has been relative to the upside potential. The move in the juniors has barely started. We have a stock in our fund that was up 37% yesterday on no news (Almaden Minerals). It’s up another 17% today. I spoke to management, who attributed the action to a U.S.-based newsletter but noted that the stock is playing “catch up” to comparable companies with $200-million market caps. AAU’s market cap even with today’s move is still around $85 million.
I will be explaining to the subscribers of my Mining Stock Journal in the upcoming issue (next Wed or Thurs) why AAU is worth at least as much as its comparable companies. I’ll also be presenting another mining stock that has moved up almost 500% from its 52 week low and is still 300-400% undervalued just in the context of the current prices of gold/silver. This company has a hidden asset that is not even contemplated by the market right now. In the current issue I presented a junior gold stock that has been almost completely ignored by investors. This particular stock is one of the best risk/return ideas I’ve come across in 15 years of focusing on this sector. You can subscribe to the Mining Stock Journal by clicking on the graphic to the right or by clicking here: Mining Stock Journal.
Guest Post: Donald Trump Apparently Likes Gold
…One More Reason For The Establishment To Hate Him
Eric Dubin – The News Doctors
Naturally, Donald Trump likes currency, but he also likes money (bragging rights go to all those that know the difference). It turns out that he accepted 3 kilo bars of gold as a security deposit from American Precious Metals Exchange. APMEX is renting the 50th floor of the Trump Building at 40 Wall Street for the next ten years. The gold has a U.S. dollar nominal value of about 120 grand.
The New American magazine broke the story. Amusingly enough, their website was attacked this morning, and the page hosting the story had a redirect programmed into the page. Anyone that clicked on the story was redirected to a pediatric hospital’s website based in Argentina, with an “object not found” page displayed. Someone doesn’t want you reading this article…Read the rest of this article here: The News Doctors
Gold: Something Is Melting Down In The Global Financial System
Deutsche Bank is the financial system’s “Hurt Locker” – Investment Research Dynamics/Kranzler Research
It’s been well documented that the $/yen has been the “lever” by which the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury ( via its Working Group on Financial Markets) has been manipulating the stock market higher and keeping a cap on the price of gold. Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com has done a brilliant job documenting and commenting on this dynamic: It’s All About The Yen. I would recommend looking at his archives to see the historical context of his work.
The yen has been depreciating vs the dollar at a rapid rate since October 2012. Not coincidentally the SPX embarked on a nearly uninterrupted upward move that took it from 1099 in early October to its all time high of 2130 in May 2015. The
directional correlation between the USD/YEN and the SPX was highly conspicuous, if not an outright signal of official market market intervention.
Starting in early August, however, the $/yen began to break down technically, as the yen began to appreciate vs. the dollar – primarily in big “waterfall” chunks. Not coincidentally, the SPX began to “tip over” at about the same time. Yesterday the $/yen plunged briefly below the key 110 level, closing at 109.78.
Today (Wed, April 7th) the dollar crashed another 1.4% the yen. For clarification, a 1% move in a currency is considered to be a huge move. As you can see from the 1yr $/yen graph to the left, the $USD has depreciated in value quite rapidly vs. the yen. There has not been any event-
specific news that would be causing the rapid depreciation of the dollar vs. the yen. In fact, the current narrative from the Fed, White House and media is that the U.S economy is doing well and the Fed intends to hike interest rates at twice in 2016. Conversely, Japan’s economy is contracting and Bank of Japan continues to flood the system with liquidity. If anything, the dollar should be rapidly appreciating vs. the yen.
The only conclusion we can draw from this is that something has blown up in the global financial system which caused unpredictable instability in – and loss of control over – the Fed’s manipulation mechanisms.
I believe the likely culprit is Deutsche Bank. As I have commented on several times previously, Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet is a ticking financial nuclear time bomb. It’s the financial system’s “Hurt Locker.” Since March 11, Deutsche Bank stock is down 25% despite the inexorable move higher by the S&P 500. DB is down 9% in four trading days this week. Despite the Fed’s attempts to monetize DB’s derivatives (I will document in another blog post), DB’s stock is telling us that DB’s financial condition is melting down.
This is likely the reason that gold has been a stellar performer for the past three weeks despite the general expectation that the bullion banks were in a position to smash the precious metals once again. But every attempted downward manipulative hit has been met with aggressive buying. What makes the trading action in gold all the more remarkable is the fact that India’s gold importing activities have ground to halt since the country’s jewelers went on strike March 1st.
This is an unmistakable message from the market that something potentially devastating has occurred behind the western Central Banking “curtain.”
Kinder Morgan: More Downside Risk Than Upside Potential
By 2015, KMI had become a personal cash piggy bank for Richard Kinder. Kinder owns 234 million shares. Before the dividend was cut 75% in late 2015, he was raking in dividend payments at a rate of $468 million per year. Basically he was running the Company like a Ponzi scheme in order to fund his massive personal dividend payout. – Excerpt from IRD’s Kinder Morgan Report
I started working on this Kinder Morgan report in early January. I have taken my time in assessing the Company’s financials and I wanted to make sure that my thesis about the Company was credible because it is very rare to find anyone who is willing to issue contrarian analysis on KMI
One of the first big red flags for me was raised after I had sent several emails to the Company over the first four weeks of the year in my effort to gather as much information as possible. I also left several voicemails for the investor relations representative. Neither my emails nor my voicemails were returned. There is simply no excuse for this and reflects poorly on the Company. In close to thirty years of involvement in the financial markets, my investor inquiries to a company were ignored only one other time.
I wrote this research report “piece-meal” over time. Interestingly, every time dug deeper into the financials and related available public information, I discovered more problematic aspects than I would have had I written this report in a couple of marathon sessions. Similar to Amazon.com, this Company is complex maze of accounting, propaganda and hype. Each time I peel away a layer of veneer, I find more cracks in the facade.
I’m not necessarily recommending shorting KMI, although I think there’s money to be made on the downside if the price of oil continues lower, which I believe it will. This report explains why you should not buy KMI if you are thinking about it and it explains why you should sell it you still own it. This stock could easily go a lot lower. Click on image to access this report. Short Seller Journal subscribers will receive a 66% discount – contact me about this.