Investment Research Products

Powered by Kranzler Research

Articles

More On Morons And Mark Hulbert

The mainstream media version of Dan Norcini was out today with yet another vacuous warning about gold.   Recall that Mark Hulbert was the mainstream media idiot who ranted and raved as recently as July that gold was only worth $800:    Gold Might Be Up This Year, But It’s Worth Only $800.

Where does Marketwatch find these guys?  Seriously.  Now that his $800 call has proved to be heinously wrong, he’s out warning that gold will be volatile:   Irrational Exuberance:  Expect Gold To Be Massively Volatile

Thanks for the reminder, Mark, that markets tend to go and down because buyers and sellers have differing opinions and exert those opinions with variability in the degree of their relative efforts.

Hulbert’s witches brew “sentiment” indicator is telling him that gold is going lower.  I’m guessing it’s the same magic potion that whispered sweet nothings in his ear about $800 gold…

Gold has been forced lower by western Central Banks and Governments dumping cargo-load upon cargo-load of paper gold onto the market – and an occasional multi-hundred tonne pallet of Central Bank custodial gold onto the LBMA for added effect. Like all cartel-manipulated activity, the party had to come to an end eventually.

The problem with snake-oil covered “econometric models”  and other such statistical hocus-pocus is that the forumulas are based on the assumption that the input-data embody a certain degree of “normalcy.”  However the data-pool for the price-behavior of gold over the past five years has been anything but “normal.”

Au contraire, Mark, in case you have not noticed – which you probably have not given that Untitledyour focus is centered on the “irrational exuberance” of “sentiment” sampling – every time they try to smash gold during exceptionally low volume time periods, gold bounces back. Silver is outperforming gold on smash days and underperforming gold on rally days. At some point silver will begin to outperform gold on rally days and that’s when it will be “lights out” for anyone short the precious metals

As an aside, my latest issue of the Short Seller’s Journal will be sent to subscribers this NewSSJ GraphicSunday. I’ve picked out construction industry stock that has at least $100 to fall before this bear market is over and I also have “quick hit” scalp idea that will pay off next week if this  bear market dead-cat bounce is over.

A Modest Response To The Zerohedge / Acting Man / Bill Bonner Blog Post

Zerohedge reposted this Acting Man repost of a Bill Bonner commentary:   When Cash Is Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Have Cash.

Who cares?  I own gold – et tu, Brute?

The war on cash is irrelevant if you own gold. I could care less about the war on cash. “Conspiracy theorists” have been warning the public for over 15 years that this would happen. The material is available for anyone and everyone to become educated – for free.

Instead of attempting to understand why a cadre of bright individuals believe that the modern fiat/debt-based global financial and economic system is going to collapse, we have been maliciously defiled as “goldbugs” – or just “bugs” as Dennis Gartman is fond of saying, “paranoid nutjubs,” “Pet Rock enthusiasts” and other sundry pejoratives and expletives.  Quite frankly, it is highly probable that our world is on the cusp of what will be a schadenfreude moment for many of us…

Anyone who suffers when the U.S. goes digital only has themselves to blame:  The War On Cash Is Irrelevant If You Own Gold/Silver.

The War On Cash Is Irrelevant If You Own Gold And Silver

The fear porn headlines are beginning to flood the alternative media blogs.  Everyone is warning about the growing “war on cash” and negative interest rates.  Yes, it’s inevitable and all the reasons why Governments prefer a digital currency to cash are obvious.  First foremost is that it is the bridesmaid to the Totalitarian creep engulfing our system.

But lost in this fog of fear is the obvious alternative:  gold and silver.  Worried about the elimination of $100 bills because it makes it harder to accumulate and safekeep meaningful amounts of cash?  An ounce of gold stores a lot more wealth than a $100 bill. Currently one roll of silver eagles is worth more than three $100 bills.

Negative interest rates?  Big deal.  Over long periods of time the relative value of gold accelerates vs. all other currencies when real rates are negative.  When the Fed takes nominal rates negative the price of gold/silver will begin to go parabolic.  Will that happen immediately?  Of course not.  The Fed will try to cap the price movement of gold with B-52 payloads full of paper gold.  When this happens, take as much cash out of the banking system as possible and convert it into physical gold and silver bullion coins.

Will the Government try to confiscate gold and silver?  The promoters of this hypothesis have glaringly failed to study the facts.   Yes, the Government decreed it to be illegal to use gold bullion coins as currency but it never embarked on an effort to “confiscate” private gold holdings.  In fact, other than a few idiots who took their gold to the bank and turned it in for cash, the only gold the Government “confiscated” was gold that had been found in abandoned safe deposit boxes.

FURTHERMORE, the possession and use of silver as a currency was never outlawed.  Please study the facts on what happened before you promote or buy into highly misleading or false tales about gold “confiscation.”

Whether or not the Government ever revives a moratorium on the use of gold as a currency or on its outright ownership is, quite frankly, irrelevant.  There will ALWAYS be a private market in which gold will freely exchange hands for like value.  Gold and silver have endured over 5,000 years as legitimate currencies.   The  United States has been in existence for roughly 240 years.  I think I know which of the two has a better probability of surviving the economic and geopolitical hurricane that is approaching.

The rampant proliferation of “war on cash / negative interest rate” warnings are little more than the childish rants of alternative media propaganda artists.   It’s like a repetitive announcement that the earth is round and circles the sun.  Yes, we know that the Government is going to digitize the currency system and take interest rates negative in an attempt to channel bank balances into consumption or the stock market or Treasury bonds.

But whatever measures the Government takes to implement capital controls and increasingly exert more control over your life can be offset if you move as much cash as possible out of the system now and into precious metals.

The State Of Illinois Is Bankrupt

There seems to be no limit to the amount of relevant news about the U.S. economic and financial system that the mainstream media keeps off the radar screen.  I truly believe the technically insolvent status of the country’s fifth largest State is a lot more relevant to our collective lives than is the latest episode of The Jerry Springer Show Trump vs. Rubio vs. Cruz vs. Clinton “reality” TV show.

Illinois sports a $111 billion unfunded State pension, it has $8 billion in unpaid bills, tax revenues are declining, spending is accelerating and it has yet to approve a FY 2017 budget. If this were a private corporation, it would have been taken through bankruptcy court and emerged with new owners at this point.

But the true financial condition is even worse than advertised.   Let’s examine that underfunded pension estimate for a moment.  That number would be based on the existing actuarial assumed liabilities vs. the allegedly marked to market value of the assets.   I can say with 110% certainty that the total value of the assets are over-estimated by at least 10% and probably more.  Included in its cesspool of investments would be items like private equity tech investments, high yield-turned-distressed bonds, overvalued real estate and energy investments and, of course, derivatives.   There’s no way that the people running the fund have properly marked to market any of the above toxic assets.

The now-Senator and supremely corrupt Michael Bennett plugged the Denver Public Employee pension fund for a cool $250 million of losses on interest rate derivatives that he bought from his former colleagues at JP Morgan.   Denver’s pension fund is tiny compared to Illinois’ grotesque public employee entitlement monstrosity.

I don’t rely on the mainstream media for updates on the Illinois financial saga.  But every time I run across updates on the situation it has become worse.

I wonder if Obama will avoid the State of Illinois’ funeral the way he’s avoiding SCOTUS Justice Scalia’s funeral:  LINK.  Obama is a real class act…

It’s A Truth Or Dare Stock Market

Hi Dave, I purchased a box of silver eagles on SD Bullion today! I also did the 250 strike on Amazon! Great report on Amazon! I’m really excited about the coins! Thanks for the help! I feel like I have taken a big step in protecting my family!  Thanks, Jeff

I received that email yesterday from a subscriber to my Short Seller’s Journal.  He made a $7500 profit on AMZN puts that I had recommended.  He took the profits plus part of his original capital and bought a box of silver eagles from Silver Doctors (SD Bullion is the best source to buy silver eagles based on price and reliability of service – I receive no benefit from saying this but I’ve been buying silver for over 15 years and I know how to differentiate between good and bad coin dealers).  He rolled the rest of his capital from the original AMZN put trade into the January 2017 $250 puts, which could end up being a home run.

There’s a rumor floating around the market that Google is looking at buying AIG. Remember AIG?  AIG is the big insurance company that was taking insane risks in the subprime mortgage derivatives market.  It blew up in 2008 and, in the process, had technically blown up Goldman Sachs.  Ex-Goldman CEO, Henry Paulson,  was strategically inserted into the Treasury Secretary post specifically to make sure that Goldman was bailed out when this happened.

AIG was also saved by the taxpayers.  It’s businesses were reinflated by the Fed’s QE and it’s stock ran from $20 to a recent high last of $64.  Carl Icahn, the quintessential stock operator took a stake in AIG in October and had been trying to force a break-up of the company.  The stock is down over 18% since Carl announced his position in the stock.  The Google rumors started flying around about a day ago. It has to be one of the most retarded ideas I’ve seen floated in quite some time.  It reminds me of the “clicks and eyeballs” analysis to justify the bloated valuations on internet stocks back in 1999.

Carl Icahn makes mistakes.  I took other side of one of his mistakes in the late 1990’s when he decided that taking control of the badly failing Stratosphere Casino in Vegas was a good idea.  His idea failed miserably and I made a lot of money for Bankers Trust from shorting the daylights out of the Stratosphere first mortgage bonds, which ultimately were worth zero after trading as high at $110 (110% of par value).

My point here is that something not being mentioned anywhere is going with AIG’s financial stability.  The credit default swap rate on AIG bonds has mysteriously shot straight up:

Untitled

I have no idea what has the CDS market spooked. But I know from 1st-hand experience that credit markets tend to have information and “see things” well before the stock market sees it. Accounting disclosure, by design, has become catastrophically opaque in the financial sector. Anyone who has only access to the SEC-filed financial documents is seeing no more than a sliver of the truth about what is going on at AIG, or at any financial company for that matter.

Whether or not this will turn out be big mistake for Icahn remains to be seen. But anyone who is jumping on AIG because there’s a rumor that Google should buy it is ignoring the signal being broadcast by the CDS market.   Often rumors designed to juice a stock are “coincidentally” floated at a time when someone privy to inside information decides that it’s time to get out of Dodge and needs an influx of “dumb” money to buy the stock so he can exit.  The CDS market is suggesting this could be the case with AIG.  We know Icahn is dumping AAPL right now…

This is the type of analysis and insight that subscribers to my Short Seller’s Journal receive on a weekly basis. At some point I will wade knee-deep into AIG’s financials and see if I can figure out why the CDS market is so spooked because I know the original factors which sunk AIG the first time around have likely reappeared, in a different form, and AIG could well be an epic short opportunity.

SoT – Bill Murphy: The Gold/Silver Manipulators Are At The End Of Their Rope

When silver breaks $18.50…it will then take out $50 and hit Eric Sprott’s number of $100-plus because since the last time it hit $50 they’ve gone through all that physical supply…this time they won’t be able to go to the physical supply well .  – Bill Murphy on the Shadow of Truth

A “commercial signal failure” occurs in commodities futures trading when the open interest in futures contracts exceeds the amount of the underlying commodity that is available to deliver into those contracts should enough entities that are long decide to demand delivery per the terms of the contract.  It is a rare event because the futures open interest in most commodities rarely exceeds more than 10-20% of the amount of the underlying available.

Except in the gold and silver markets, when the open interest in any other commodity wanders beyond that 120% level the Commodities Futures Trading Commission puts a halt to the entities which are responsible for what has been determined to be “attempted market manipulation.”  This has occurred in the past in the energy markets.

Too be sure, allowing open interest of futures contracts which exceeds the underlying availability of the commodity enables a higher degree of liquidity in the futures market. However, currently on the Comex the ratio of futures open interest to available gold for delivery is 174:1 – this is for the “registered,” or gold designated available for delivery.  In the silver market the ratio is 29:1. Given those absurd ratios, it’s safe to assume that the role of gold and silver futures trading is to enable the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, through their bullion bank emissaries (primarily JP Morgan, Scotia and HSBC) to use Comex futures as a tool for manipulating the market.

The Shadow of Truth hosted GATA/LeMetropole Cafe’s Bill “Midas” Murphy  to discuss some recent events which have led Bill to conclude that ability of the bullion banks to manipulate the precious metals has likely reached its end-game:  “eastern hemisphere demand for physical gold and silver is overwhelming the paper manipulators.”

MurphyHUI

The first event occurred the day that the HUI “gold bug” mining stock index was driven below 100 intra-day.  It closed over 100 that day and then proceeded on an 18-day tear through that took the index up 60%.  (click on image to enlarge)

The second event was the blatantly fraudulent LBMA silver fix which “fixed” the price at $13.58 despite the fact that external Comex futures were trading at $14.40.

They know they have an end-game coming, and it’s begun and those two events were signatures of that.  – Bill Murphy

Bill was particularly “fired up” today and we think you’ll find the discussion highly engaging and informative:

The longer they drag this out, the worse it will be when the market finally breaks beyond their ability to control the outcome. – Bill Murphy

The Corruption In The U.S. Has Reached Insane Levels

The U.S. financial and political system has become possibly the most corrupt system in recorded history. But even worse is the willingness of the American public to endure and even accept the blatant corruption that has engulfed the system. The latter attribute is best explained by the psychological phenomenon known as “Stockholm Syndrome.”

The poster-child for this analysis, of course, is Hillary Clinton. Clinton should be spending all of her time defending herself from being thrown in jail for life.  Instead, she gets annihilated in the New Hampshire primary voting and yet comes away with the same number of delegates as her opponent.  It’s almost as if the more evidence is released which shows that Hillary Clinton broke laws and seriously compromised national security the more popular she becomes with ideologically blind Democrats.

Same for Trump.  The only reason he has achieved some measure of support is because he’s willing to challenge the long running corrupt establishment politicians and there’s enough people who sense that the crux of the problem is Washington DC.  But Trump is not the solution to the problem – he’s part of the problem from the Wall Street side of the equation.  Trump is the guy who has run his casino “empire” into bankruptcy three times – “Chapter 33” (Chapter 11 x 3).  He’s no more qualified to run the country than is a pedophile to run a daycare center.

As for Wall Street, I’m watching in horror as the same problems that blew up the financial system in 2008, problems which were never fixed, have become even bigger and more dangerous.  Yet the public whistles by the graveyard as they are about to be subjected to money market fund gates and a cashless monetary system.   The EU is getting ready to abolish the 500 euro note.  And Larry Summers, one of the most insidiously corrupt public officials I’ve seen in my lifetime, has proposed abolishing the $100 bill.  And no one cares.

A digital currency system not only will enable the Government to monitor everything you do with your money, it will also enable them to more easily “corral” any money you keep in a bank in order to use that capital for the bail-ins which will inevitably hit the system when 2008 Redux hits the system.

It’s not  a secret to anyone paying attention, but the Government spending deficit is on the cusp of going parabolic.  The one-time accounting games and fleecing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help “fund” Government deficit spending and to enable the appearance of of a smaller deficit are now used up.  No one seemed to care, but the amount of Treasuries outstanding jumped up by about $700 billion to $19 trillion right after Congress and Obama raised the debt ceiling limit to $20 trillion. Folks, that’s money that has been already spent but which was hidden from the actual 2015 spending numbers by Jack Lew’s magic accounting wand.

Now that China is openly liquidating its Treasury holdings, the U.S. Government will need to find another source of funding for its Ponzi schemes.  Enabling “gates” on money market funds will help the Government channel big waves of capital into Treasury bonds via Treasury mutual funds.   Notice there have not been any proposals to gate those.  It’s another backdoor bail-in that will be implemented on a complicit public.

I said back in 2003 that the powers that be would hold up the system with printed money and credit until they were done sweeping every last crumb of wealth off the table and into their pockets.  But I had no idea what that process would look like.  Now I’m starting to see how my prediction is unfolding and I will admit it’s clever.  It’s the “boiled frog” strategy being executed with near-perfection.

Money market mutual fund gates, which go into effect in Q3  – and a digital currency system – which could go into effect before the end of the year – are nothing more than totalitarian capital controls in disguise.  I have no expectations other than that the public will embrace them with eagerness as I suspect they’ll be shoved down our throats in the name of national security.

For anyone who “gets it” and who is paying attention to what’s happening, my best advice is to start moving as much of your money out of mutual funds, retirement accounts and banks and into physical gold and silver that you safekeep yourself.  Ironically, at a time when the eschewal and ridicule of precious metals by the media and the clueless masses has reached an epitome, now is the best time since the bull market began to convert fiat currency and custodial-held wealth into gold and silver bullion.

Silver Will Be The Trade Of The Decade At It’s Current Price

I’m starting to warm up to the idea that the fraudulent silver price fix on the LBMA a couple weeks ago marked the final “capitulation” of the nearly 5-year price pullback in silver and 4+ year pullback in gold.  We have yet to hear a satisfactory explanation from the LBMA for the exceedingly odd price behavior of silver seconds before the  a.m. London silver price was set on January 28th.

I believe that event marked the “last gasp” effort by the highly corrupt LBMA bullion banks to shakedown the physical silver market in order to get their hands on as much physical silver as possible at as cheap of a price as possible.  I believe, not uniquely by the way, that the synthetic short interest (paper derivatives shorts) in silver is even worse than for gold, which we know is at least 100:1.

Big banks hate losing money and will do anything – legal or illegal – to avoid losing money or to minimize losses.  I saw this first-hand and peripherally participated in activities designed to minimize losses when I worked on Wall Street in the 1990’s.  Everything is worse now in that regard and the people who are supposed to enforce the laws and oversee trading activities at these banks are now in on the corruption.

With that as the preface, I believe silver is beaten down and cheap relative to gold and any other investment alternatives and I think buying silver now – at it’s current price – will prove to be the trade of the decade.

Right now gold is outperforming silver on up-days BUT silver outperforms gold when the metals sell off.  Typically gold will outperform silver in the early stages of a big bull market move.  Gold current outperformance vs. silver is reflected in retail activity, as noted by Doc at Silver Doctors and some other bullion dealers to whom I spoken about the market recently, in which sales volume of gold coins is outpacing volume in silver.

But this will soon crossover as gold appreciates in price and waves of new buyers flock to silver rather gold because it feels better to buy more ounces of silver than gold.  Silver is poor man’s gold and always has been for 1000’s of years.  When this dynamic kicks in, the gold/silver ratio will drop quickly from its current 78x.   I suspect before this bull market is over, the GSR will drop well below 20, if not 10.

We saw this in 2011, when silver began to go parabolic before the western Central Banks had seen enough and began to throw 100’s of tonnes of paper gold and silver at the market in order to not only prevent the metals from moving higher but to beat down the price on gold and silver to their current levels.  In the bull move from late 2008 to April 2011, the GSR dropped from 100 to 32.

Eric Dubin and “Doc” hosted me for their weekly metals and markets podcast last week.   We discuss a range of topics but focus on the precious metals.  Note:  I mention a new emerging junior exploration silver miner that I featured in a recent issue of my Short Seller’s Journal.  Anyone who subscribes to the SSJ and mentions that they heard about it on the Silver Doctors podcast will receive a copy of that back-issue when they subscribe:

AMAZON dot CON: Find Out Why The Stock Was Slammed After Q4 Earnings

A reader reports: Hi Dave, I’m in the Amazon puts with 300 strike price that I bought on Jan 17 before they reported earnings. I’ve made $7500 on the trade. Also I read that you think silver is the play of the decade! I’m going to take those profits plus $2500 and buy a box of silver eagles and put the rest of my capital from the put trade back into more AMZN puts!  Thanks!

NOTE:  AMZN has run up over $40 since its post-earnings slam.  Of course Jeff Bezos being the consummate stock market operator announced a $5 billion share buyback. He’s attempting to push the stock back up because he dumps shares every month and, more important, when AMZN drops back to earth (i.e. below $100) he’ll have a cadre of pissed off employees who agreed to take a high percentage of their salary in restricted stock units (RSUs).  At today’s current price, Bezos has paid out close to $500 million worth of RSUs at much higher stock prices.   Imagine thinking you are getting paid $100k but when you go to sell your stock, you find out that your salary during that time period was really $25k…My report explains these RSUs and shows why AMZN is the biggest Ponzi scheme in the modern era…

I’ve updated the AMAZON dot CON report and show what was in the numbers that triggered a $190 sell-off in the stock.  I’ve also updated the section of the report that outlines using calls and puts to short AMZN.

AWS will be one of the first cracks of the glacier but what will bring the whole thing down is when that RSU payment scheme unwinds itself.  Most analysts are overlooking one of the biggest accounting schemes at AMZN in the history of any large public company:  how they pay a good chunk of base salary in RSUs and walking through what that means. That is going to be a day of reckoning for the business school case studies.   – a contact of mine who is a former Silicon Valley insider that specialized in tech company accounting

My report details AMZN’s Restricted Stock Unit accounting scheme and the ramifications for this Ponzi compensation scheme when the stock engages in bona fide price discovery, i.e. tanks hard.  You can access this report here:  AMAZON dot CON

SoT – Jeff Brown (in Beijing): China Confronts Western Thieves Led By Soros

In 1979 the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) – a precursor to the euro – was established.  The ERM created a semi-fixed currency exchange rate mechanism among the European members of the system which was anchored to the Deutsche Mark.    By 1992, less than two years after England joined the ERM,  it was obvious to interested observers that the British pound had become significantly overvalued relative to the Deutsche Mark.

At the time, England had a large current account deficit and was experiencing a nasty recession. Although he British Government was committed to maintaining the BP’s peg to the Deutsche Mark, George Soros, in what became billed as “the trade of the century,” began to accumulate a large bet against the pound.  After wasting billions in taxpayer funds trying to support the pound, the British Government eventually capitulated by exiting the ERM and the market forced a nasty revaluation of the pound.   Soros ended up netting over a billion dollars in profits.  (For the record,  it has been speculated with valid source documentation that the Rothschild family was behind Soros’ attack on the British Government/Bank of England).

Let this be a lesson in price-fixing, as the only thing accomplished by the British Government’s endeavor was a massive transfer of wealth from taxpayers to George Soros & Co. and likely even more to the Rothschild family.  Price fixing markets always fails eventually.

Fast-forward to the present and we find Soros now attempting to profit from what looks like a methodical, strategic devaluation of the Chinese renminbi (yuan) by the Chinese Government.

But there’s a big difference between England circa 1992 and China 2016.  China is running a massive trade surplus, it’s the world’s largest importer/exporter and likely sports the world’s biggest GDP.  It’s financial condition is reinforced by $3.3 trillion in foreign currency reserves.   It can be argued that China is on the ascent to become the next world superpower.

Perhaps the most interesting “wild card” held by China is its Central Bank hoard of gold. The $3.3 trillion in forex reserves does not include the market value of the China’s State-owned gold.  Alasdair Macleod has produced compelling arguments which suggest that China could hold well in excess of 20,000 tonnes of gold, nothwithstanding the current amount to which China publicly admits.

Most analysts who have been observing China for at least over a decade have been wondering how it would be able to unload its massive Treasury holdings, which at one point were around $1.4 trillion.   The market turmoil surrounding China’s intermittent currency devaluations has stirred up a flight to safety bid for Treasuries in the global markets into which China has already unloaded a couple hundred billion dollars worth of Treasuries.  Is China selling dollars to support its currency or is there a more clever strategy at work?

China likely is not going to wait around to be a bagholder of a trillion dollars in eventually worthless Treasuries.  Enter George Soros who announced recently with much bravado that he was betting big against the yuan.  The Chinese Government, via the State-owned People’s Daily newspaper issued a frank warning to those who are openly speculating against the yuan.  Clear it was a shot across the bow back at Soros.

The Shadow of Truth hosted Jeff Brown (China Rising blog) – who has been living in Beijing for the 5 years and is working on Xi Jinping’s diaries – for an interesting discussion about China’s current affairs as they relate to the attack on its currency by Soros.  At the very least there is a lot more going on behind the scenes with China’s moves in the markets than meets the eye and Jeff helps shine a light some of China’s motives.