Tag Archives: employment report

ADP’s Job “Creation” Report Is A Fraud

Put it on CNN and it’s “true.”  Americans will turn on their tv’s and open their newspapers tomorrow (the small percentage that still read newspapers) to hear and read that the U.S. economy “created” nearly 300,000 jobs in February – at least according to ADP. .

The easiest way to hold ADP accountable and eviscerate the credibility of their report is to examine their “methodology.”  Of course, this requires searching the ADP website to find the area way at the bottom where it describes its “methodology,” something no fake news reporter or analyst has to time with which to bother.

As ADP describes in its “methodology” section, it seeks to “closely align” the final output of its calculations with that of the “final print of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers.”  Thus,  ADP’s “job creation” report is really nothing more than a regurgitation of the fraudulent employment report issued by the U.S. Government.

Here’s the other variables of input that the new ADP methodology now incorporates into its methodology used in ADP’s  “enhanced  ADP National Employment Report

  • ADP matched-pair growth rates by industry
  • Lagged values of BLS estimates of growth of employment by industry with industry specific restrictions
  •  Unemployment Insurance Claims (UNI_US)
  •  Oil Prices
  •  The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSENT_US)
  •  The Composite Index of Leading Indicators (LEAD_US)

The “soft” data reports above have nothing do with job creation.  Unemployment claims are historically low because the labor force participation rate is historically low, which means that the number of people who are terminated and can file for nemployment benefits is historically low.  How is this variable an input on job creation?

WELCOME TO ADP’S RABBIT HOLE

Since when did the manipulated price direction of oil create jobs?  Consumer confidence creates jobs?  Please.  In fact, ALL of the variables listed above and used by ADP in formulating its job creation report are highly manipulated and in no way represent the process by which jobs are created – other than the growth in propaganda creation positions at the Government and at the mainstream media outlets.

But there’s more.  ADP claims that 106,000 jobs were created in February in the “goods producing sector.”  The primary goods producing sector in the U.S. is the auto industry, which is currently cutting jobs in order to cut production in the face of record auto inventory sitting on dealer lots.  In fact, GM announced 1,100 job cuts at one of its production facilities yesterday.

ADP also claims that 66,000 jobs were “created” in construction. But we know based on the Government’s construction spending report that the Government alone cut construction spending by nearly 8% last month.  Most major cities around the U.S. now have years of apartment inventory.  For instance, San Francisco now has 5 years of vacant supply:  LINK.   Commercial real estate occupancy rates are soaring with the number of retailers filing bankruptcy and closing stores.  At least 7 major retailers this year have filed chapter 11 or are in the process of trying to restructure debt.  This is a major source of job loss and it’s simply not credible that commercial construction is on the rise, which means that the 66,000 “new” jobs attributed to construction is a complete fraud.

Leisure and hospitality is credited with producing 40,000 new jobs in February.  I’d love to sit down with the ADP analyst to find out where this number came from.  The restaurant industry experienced revenue declines nearly every month in 2016.  Same-store-sales and foot traffic plunged across the industry.  It’s inconceivable that the leisure and hospitality industry produced this many jobs, if any at all, given the underlying fundamental condition of the median average household, which has been experiencing declining real disposable income for several years now

The report also gives credit to small businesses for “creating” 104,000 jobs.  This is  not even remotely credible.  A report out just a couple months ago stated that the creation of new businesses in the U.S. is at a 40-year low:  LINK.  Does anyone really believe that Trump’s “hopium” effect suddenly inspired a rush to start new businesses which then hired 104,000 people?

There’s several more inconsistencies in ADP’s report. I’ll leave it to the reader to sort through the actual report itself and decide what’s real and what’s fraudulent.  As far as I can tell, the ADP report has been designed to piggy-back and “confirm” the fraudulent employment issued by the Government every month.

 

Your Vote Is Useless – Here’s Why

In this 101st episode of the Shadow of Truth, we discuss the Group of 30.   Ever hear of it?The Group of 30 is organization comprised of political and banking elitists who appear to help set the political and economic agenda for the U.S.,  Japan, Europe and England, with the goal toward One World, One Government.

All of the members hold or have held senior positions in Government, Banking/Finance and/or the largest multi-national corporations.  We can assure you that the Group of Thirty was instrumental in drafting the highly secretive and controversial TPP Treaty, which will elevate the largest western corporate entities above the legal jurisdication of any signatory Government.

We also dive into the fraudulent employment reports and the impending real estate bubble collapse.

NY Post: Government Employment Is Useless And Possibly Fraudulent

Friday’s employment report missed Wall Street’s forecast by 50%.  However, more than likely, not only was the reported number significantly lower than expected, as it turns out based on some behind the scenes investigating by the New York Post’s John Crudele, there’s a high probability that the number was complete fraud.

John Crudele, the only mainstream media business reporter who actually reports as much truth as his editors will permit, wrote a stunning (or maybe not so stunning) revelation about the data gathering methodology used by the Census Bureau in compiling the numbers for the BLS’ jobs report:   The Census Bureau had trouble compiling the nation’s jobless rate in March and, because of this, I’m told, questionable shortcuts were taken.  NY Post link

While those of us in the truthseeking blog world have been detailing the extreme inconsistencies in the monthly jobs report for a long time, Crudele has developed sources in the Government who are willing to reveal the truth to him:   A source tells me that one of the six regions had to fudge its numbers to make its results look just a little lousy.

My guess is that most of the “professionals” who base their analysis and investing decisions using the monthly jobs report have no idea that the BLS uses the Census Bureau for its data-gathering.  But as most of you may or may not know, the Census Bureau has already been caught and censured for data-gathering fraud in several regions across the country in connection with its population surveys.

As we know, where there’s smoke, there’s inevitably a fire.  Especially when the source of the “fire” is Government economic reports.  Hell, the BLS releases two separate jobs reports – the Household survey and the Establishment survey.  Those reports are impossible to reconcile.

The Household survey is used to calculate the highly fictitious unemployment rate.  It showed that there were only 34,000 more people working in March vs. February (vs. the headline Establishment survey which claims 126,000).   However, it gets worse.   Only the 55 and over age category showed jobs gains – supposedly 329,000 (Establishement survey) – which means that every other age category according to the Government’s own report experienced a jobs lost of 203,000.

Furthermore, the labor force participation rate hit a 37-year low at 62.7%.  That’s a level not seen since 1978, when most households were still one-income units.  The number of Americans not considered part of the labor force grew to a record 93.2 million.

Not only are these numbers completely shocking, it is likely that the real numbers are much worse.   As Crudele has detailed in his article, it is highly probable that even the shocking numbers are based fraud.

 

Today’s Employment Report Is The Biggest Lie They’ve Told To Date

There’s no BS like the brown stuff tossed at us by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).  Not only do they want us to believe that the economy produced 257,000 jobs in January, during a time in which the energy sector – the largest source of jobs growth since 2009 – was cutting 10’s of thousands of workers, they revised November’s supposed 353k job gain up to 423k.  It was the second biggest monthly jobs increase this century.    Anyone believe that?

It’s gets better:   the notoriously ridiculous birth-death model modeled in a 257k net loss in jobs.  How is it possible that economy generated any jobs growth if big companies are dumping workers (see IBM + big oil + oil shale + Radio Schack, etc) and the traditional engine of jobs growth – new business start-ups – were unloading jobs?   I’ll tell you how:  pure, unadulterated statistical lies.

Oh wait. The BLS one-upped itself on its lies.   It took the number of jobs supposedly “created” by the economy in 2014 up to 3.2 million from the original lie of 2.95 million.   Now, how is that all possible when we have THIS (source:  Zerohedge.com, edits are mine – click to enlarge):

LFPR

Just a reminder, the only way that the labor force participation rate declines is when the number of people who leave the “labor force” exceed the number of people entering the “labor force.” It essentially means that there’s a huge “reservoir” of people out there who simply gave up looking for work and are permanently unemployed on the Taxpayer payroll – i.e. unemployment, Social Security Disability, welfare.

Please see this video for a detailed description of just how blatantly distorted the Government’s employment report really is:

I guess in order to make lemonade out of this cyanide-infused lemon the Government served up today, the best part about any Government economic report is watching grown men debate and agonize over the numbers, when the numbers are a complete fairy-tale. It’s like watching supposedly well-educated adults debating the merits of “Spongebob Squarepants” vs. “Sesame Street.”