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WTF Just Happened? Gold: Buy While There’s Blood In The Street
Perhaps the best contrarian indicator for the directional movement of gold and silver is Dennis “Wrong Way” Gartman, who recently announced that he was dumping all of his gold “positions” (note: Gartman’s “positions” are theoretical paper portfolio trades):
As for gold, we have clearly held on far, far, far too long to having owned gold…clearly we’ve been wrong to have erred bullishly of gold in any fashion whatsoever. We shall have no choice henceforth but to look upon any bounces that we get as opportunities into which to sell (The July 2, 2018 Gartman Letter, page 4).
This is true manna from heaven for precious metals investors. Dennis Gartman is one of the
best contrarian signals we have observed in over 35 years of involvement with investing and financial markets. He has a remarkable capacity to endure shame because he is almost
always wrong when he goes long or short any investment. His wrong-way calls are becoming legendary.
But if this isn’t enough evidence that now is the time to start buying, reloading or adding to your favorite mining shares and buy more physical metal, in this episode of “WTF Just Happened?” we discuss several other market indicators that point toward a big move coming in the precious metals sector ((WTF Just Happened is a produced in association with Wall St. For Main Street – Eric Dubin may be reached at Facebook.com/EricDubin):
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I recommended Arizona Mining in May 2016 at $1.26 to my Mining Stock Journal subscribers. It was acquired today for $1.3 billion, or $4.65/share. My subscribers and I are making a small fortune shorting homebuilders.
Visit these links to learn more about the Investment Research Dynamic’s Mining Stock Journal and Short Seller’s Journal.
The Demise Of Tesla: We’ve Seen This Movie Before
Enron was a product of the late 1990’s dot.com / tech bubble. Similar to Tesla’s “production tent,” Enron would set entire floors of buildings to look like elaborate energy trading rooms. The operations were nothing more than a fraudulent shell game, set-up for the benefit of Wall Street analysts and journalists.
Bear Stearns was a product of the mid-2000’s mortgage bubble. It created catastrophically leveraged mortgage-backed securities hedge funds that would inevitably collapse. The managers of these funds kept these funds alive by hiding positions from upper management and fraudulently over-marking the value of the underlying assets, which eventually proved worthless.
And now, Tesla’s path to demise seems quite similar to the recent implosion of Theranos. Theranos was biotech company which collapsed after it was revealed that it had fraudulently promoted claims about its blood testing technology. This story resonates in Tesla’s decision to skip a critical brake test in order to meet a superficial production goal last week. Anyone who takes delivery and pays for a Tesla Model 3 is putting themselves and their families at risk.
While not widely reported, there has been a rapid exit of high level executives, including the chief engineer, who resigned the day after Elon Musk issued the command to skip the brake test. After this story broke, one of my subscribers emailed me: “I design and build (from my bare hands) electrical testing equipment for the automotive industry. Plants shutdown rather than let their stuff go out the door untested.” Now we know why the chief engineer bolted from the Company.
The proprietor of the Adventures In Capitalism blog published a comparison between Tesla and Theranos. He focuses on the recent erratic behavior of the CEO and potentially lethal production decisions implemented:
The question is, who would want to invest new capital when Tesla is now admitting to knowingly selling cars without testing the brakes in order to hit some arbitrary one week production target? When a company admits that it will sacrifice vehicle quality and even risk killing its customers to win a twitter feud and start a short squeeze, regulators must step in. The question is; what else has Tesla done illegally to hit its targets? We know that Tesla long ago passed over the ethical threshold of selling faulty products that have killed people—what other allegations will soon come to light? Elon Musk demanded that Tesla stop testing brakes on June 26. Doug Field, chief engineer, resigned on June 27. Is this a coincidence? Of course not—Doug Field doesn’t want to be responsible for killing people…
You can read the rest of this here: Tesla Is The New Theranos
The only ingredient missing from the chain of events that precedes the complete collapse of Tesla is a table-pounding, frothing-at-the-mouth “buy” recommendation from CNBC’s Jim Cramer.
Orwell Chuckled, Atlas Shrugged
“WAR is a racket…It always has been.A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortune.” – US Marine General Smedley Butler. General Butler
My friend and occasional co-author, Paul Craig Roberts, wrote an compelling Fourth of July essay to give us all something to think about as the political and corporate elitists tighten the noose around our collective necks:
July 4, 2018, is the 242 anniversary of the date chosen to stand as the date the 13 British colonies declared independence. According to historians, the actual date independence was declared was July 2, 1776, with the vote of the Second Continental Congress. Other historians have concluded that the Declaration of Independence was not actually signed until August 2.
For many living in the colonies the event was not the glorious one that is presented in history books. There was much opposition to the separation, and the “loyalists” were killed, confiscated, and forced to flee to Canada. Some historians explain the event not as a great and noble enterprise of freedom and self-government, but as the manipulations of ambitious men who saw opportunity for profit and power.
For most Americans today the Fourth of July is a time for fireworks, picnics, and a patriotic speech extolling those who “fought for our freedom” and for those who defended it in wars ever since. These are feel good speeches, but most of them make very little sense…
The Housing Market: A Bigger Bubble Than 2008 Is Popping
The XHB homebuilder ETF is decisively below three key moving averages after it knifed below its 50 dma last week. KB Homes reported a big earnings and revenue “beat” on Thursday after the market closed. The stock soared as much as 9% on Friday. Per the advice I gave my subscribers about shorting the inevitable price-spike in the stock, I shorted the stock Friday mid-day (July and August at-the-money puts). The stock is down 6% from its high Friday and is back below all of its key moving averages (21, 50, 200).
Several subscribers have emailed me today to report big gains on put options purchased Friday. When a stock sells off like this after “beating” Wall St estimates and raising guidance, it’s a very bearish signal. I’ve identified the best homebuilders to short and I provide guidance on timing and the use of put options.
Housing is dropping and it’s demand-driven, not supply-driven – All three housing market reports released two weeks ago showed industry deterioration. The homebuilder “sentiment” index for May, now known as the “housing market” index for some reason, showed its 4th decline since the index peaked in December. The index level of 68 in May was 10 points below Wall Street’s expectation. The index is a “soft data” report, measuring primarily homebuilder assessment of “foot traffic” (showings) and builder sentiment.
While the housing starts report for May showed an increase over April’s report, the permits number plunged. Arguably the housing starts report is among the least reliable of the housing reports because of the way in which a “start” is defined (put a shovel in the ground, that’s a “start”). On the other hand, permits filed might reflect builder outlook. To further complicate the analysis, the report can be “lumpy” depending on the distribution between multi-family starts/permits and single family home starts/permits.
A good friend of mine in North Carolina was looking at the Denver apartment rental market earlier this week and was shocked at the high level of vacancies. I would suggest this is similar in most larger cities. It also means that multi-family building construction will likely drop off precipitously over the next 12 months.
Existing home sales for May reported Wednesday showed the second straight month-to- month drop and the third straight month of year-over-year declines. The headline SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate) number – 5.43 million – missed Wall Street’s forecast for 5.5 million. April’s number was revised lower. Once again the NAR chief spin-meister blames the drop on low inventory. But this is outright nonsense. The month’s supply for May increased from April and, at 4.1 months, is above the average month’s supply for the trailing 12 months. It’s also above the average months supply number for all of 2017. If low inventory is holding back pent-up demand, then May sales should have soared, especially given that May is historically one of the best months seasonally for home sales. The not seasonally adjusted number for May was 3.4% below May 2017.
The primary reason for declining home sales, as I’ve postulated in several past issues, is the shrinking pool of buyers who can afford to support the monthly cost of home ownership. The Government lowered the bar for its taxpayer-backed mortgage programs every year since 2014. It lowered the down-payment requirement, broadened the definition of what constitutes a down-payment (as an example, seller concessions can be counted as part of a down-payment) thereby reducing even further the amount of cash required from a buyer’s bank account at closing, it cut mortgage insurance fees and it lowered income and credit score restrictions. After all this, the Government is running out of people into whom it can stuff 0-3% down payment, 50% DTI mortgages in order to keep the housing market propped up.
A lot of short term (buy and rent for 1-2 years and then flip) investors and flippers are holding homes that will come on the market as home prices fall. The majority of the MLS notices I receive for the zip codes in Denver I track are “price change” notices. All of them are price reductions. Whereas a year ago the price reductions were concentrated in the high-priced homes, now the price reductions are spread evenly across all price “buckets.” Denver was one of the first hot markets to crack in the mid-2000’s bubble and I’m certain what I’m seeing in Denver is occurring across the country in most mid to large metropolitan areas. Yes, I’m sure there’s a few exceptions but, in general, high prices, rising mortgage rates and stagnant wages are like poison darts being thrown at the housing bubble.
The analysis above is an excerpt from the June 24th Short Seller’s Journal. My subscribers and I are making a small fortune shorting homebuilders and homebuilder-related stocks. I will adding a couple other sectors in up-coming issues that are ready to shorted aggressively. You can learn more about this service by following this link: Short Seller’s Journal information.
The Yield Curve Is The Economy’s Canary In A Coal Mine
The economy has hit a wall and is now sliding down it. I don’t care what bullish propaganda may or may not be bubbling up in the headlines from the financial media and Wall Street, the hard numbers I look at everyday show accelerating economic weakness. The fact that my view is contrary to mainstream consensus and political propaganda reinforces my conviction that my view about the economy is correct.
As an example of the ongoing underlying systemic decay and collapse conveyed by this week’s title, it was announced that General Electric would be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and replaced by Walgreen’s. GE was an original member of the index starting in 1896 and was a continuous member since 1907.
GE is an original equipment manufacturer and industrial product innovator. It’s products are used in broad array of applications at all levels of the economy globally. It is considered a “GDP company.” GE was iconic of American innovation and economic dominance. Walgreen’s is a consumer products reseller that sells pharmaceuticals and junk. Emblematic of the entire system, GE has suffocated itself with poor management which guided the company into a cess-pool of financial leverage and hidden derivatives.
As expressed in past issues (the Short Seller’s Journal), I don’t put a lot of stock in the regional Fed economic surveys, which are heavily shaded by “hope” and “expectation” metrics that are used to inflate the overall index level. These are so-called “soft” data reports. But now even the “outlook” and “expectations” measurements are falling quickly (see last week’s Philly Fed report). The Trump “hope premium” that inflated the stock market starting in November 2016 has left the building.
Something wicked this way comes: Notwithstanding mainstream media rationalizations to the contrary, a flattening of the yield curve always always always precedes a contraction in economic activity (aka “a recession”). Always. Don’t let anyone try to convince you otherwise. An “inverted” yield curve occurs when short term yields exceed long term yields. When the yield curve inverts, it means something wicked is going to hit the financial and economic system.
Prior to the financial crisis in 2008, the yield curve was inverted for short periods of time during 2007. The most simple explanation for why inversion occurs is that performance-driven capital flows from riskier investments into the the longer end of the Treasury curve, driving the yield on the long end below the short end. The expectation is that the Fed will be forced to cut short term rates drastically – thereby driving the short-end lower, which in turn pulls the entire yield curve lower (the yield curve “shifts” down). This gives investors in the long-end a better rate-of-return performance on their capital than holding short term Treasuries for safety. The Fed’s dilemma will be complicated by the fact that it does not have much room to cut rates in order to combat a deep recession.
Studies have shown that curve inversions precede a recession anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. I would argue that, stripping away the affects of inflation and data manipulation, real economic activity has been somewhat recessionary for several years. The massive intervention in the Treasury market by the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan has muted the true price discovery mechanism of the Treasury curve. The curve has been barely upward sloping for quite some time relative to history. This could indeed be history’s equivalent of an inverted curve. That being the case, if an inversion occurs despite the Fed’s attempts to prevent it, it means that whatever is going to hit the U.S. and global financial and economic system is going to be worse than what occurred in 2008.
A note on gold and silver: The massive take-down in the price of gold and silver, which is occurring primarily during the trading hours of the LBMA and the Comex – both of which are paper derivative markets – is quite similar to the take-down that occurred in the metals preceding the collapse of Bear and Lehman in 2008. It is imperative that the price of gold’s function as a warning signal is de-fused in order to keep the public wallowing in ignorance – just like in 2008. But keep an eye on the stock prices of Deutsche Bank, Goldman and Morgan Stanley – as well as the Treasury yield curve…
Paul Craig Roberts: “How Long Can The Federal Reserve Stave Off the Inevitable?”
IRD Note: The average household is bloated with debt, housing prices have peaked, many public pensions are on the verge of collapse in spite of 9-years of rising stock, bond and alternative asset values. But all of this was built on a foundation of debt, fraud and corruption. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts asks, “does the Fed have another ‘rabbit’ to pull out its hat?…
When are America’s global corporations and Wall Street going to sit down with President Trump and explain to him that his trade war is not with China but with them? The biggest chunk of America’s trade deficit with China is the offshored production of America’s global corporations. When the corporations bring the products that they produce in China to the US consumer market, the products are classified as imports from China.
Six years ago when I was writing The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism, I concluded on the evidence that half of US imports from China consist of the offshored production of US corporations. Offshoring is a substantial benefit to US corporations because of much lower labor and compliance costs. Profits, executive bonuses, and shareholders’ capital gains receive a large boost from offshoring. The costs of these benefits for a few fall on the many—the former American employees who formerly had a middle class income and expectations for their children.
In my book, I cited evidence that during the first decade of the 21st century “the US lost 54,621 factories, and manufacturing employment fell by 5 million employees. Over the decade, the number of larger factories (those employing 1,000 or more employees) declined by 40 percent. US factories employing 500-1,000 workers declined by 44 percent; those employing between 250-500 workers declined by 37 percent, and those employing between 100-250 workers shrunk by 30 percent. These losses are net of new start-ups. Not all the losses are due to offshoring. Some are the result of business failures” (p. 100).
In other words, to put it in the most simple and clear terms, millions of Americans lost their middle class jobs not because China played unfairly, but because American corporations betrayed the American people and exported their jobs. “Making America great again” means dealing with these corporations, not with China. When Trump learns this, assuming anyone will tell him, will he back off China and take on the American global corporations?
The loss of middle class jobs has had a dire effect on the hopes and expectations of Americans, on the American economy, on the finances of cities and states and, thereby, on their ability to meet pension obligations and provide public services, and on the tax base for Social Security and Medicare, thus threatening these important elements of the American consensus. In short, the greedy corporate elite have benefitted themselves at enormous cost to the American people and to the economic and social stability of the United States.
The job loss from offshoring also has had a huge and dire impact on Federal Reserve policy. With the decline in income growth, the US economy stalled. The Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan substituted an expansion in consumer credit for the missing growth in consumer income in order to maintain aggregate consumer demand. Instead of wage increases, Greenspan relied on an increase in consumer debt to fuel the economy.
The credit expansion and consequent rise in real estate prices, together with the deregulation of the banking system, especially the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, produced the real estate bubble and the fraud and mortgage-backed derivatives that gave us the 2007-08 financial crash.
The Federal Reserve responded to the crash not by bailing out consumer debt but by bailing out the debt of its only constituency—the big banks.
Click here to read the rest: Paul Craig Roberts/Fed
With Sentiment In The Gutter, Will Gold Stage A Rally?
A week ago Friday, the metals got clocked hard. It was a drive-by “paper gold” shooting on the Comex which took place after most of the rest of the world had gone home for the weekend. On Monday, the Hulbert Gold Stock Newsletter Index fell to zero. On Tuesday it dropped to negative 2.7. The HGNSI is an index that measures newsletters which make trading recommendations on mining stocks. A negative reading means, overall, the newsletters are net short in terms of position recommendations. Zero and negative readings are typically highly correlated with bottoms.
Since I’ve been following the HGNSI (since 2005), it has been a remarkably accurate contrarian signal. However, it does not offer any information on the timing of a move higher. That, of course, is always the money question. What I can say, however, is that if you have cash to put to work in the sector now is a good time start slowly buying into your favorite ideas.
There’s a growing feeling among long-time gold investors like myself that precious metals will potentially stage a surprise move higher in the near future. Note how I do not define “near future.” This is because Central Bank intervention makes it next to impossible to forecast over the “near future.” It’s this way now with all markets, not just gold and silver.
My friend and colleague, Chris Marcus of Arcadia Economics, invited me onto his podcast to discuss the precious metals market, stock market, Deutsche Bank and the general economy:
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Visit these links to learn more about the Investment Research Dynamic’s Mining Stock Journal and Short Seller’s Journal. The mining stocks are historically cheap and percolating for a big move higher. My subscribers and I are making a lot of money shorting and buying puts on homebuilders and I’ve updated my recommendations ahead of this week’s earnings reports from Lennar and KB Home.
Something Wicked Comes This Way…
Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke (TF Metals Report) invited me to discuss the possibility that global financial system, including and especially the U.S. financial system is heading into another black hole like 2008. In this conversation we discuss the signs that are pointing in this direction. (To download, right click and “save as”)
To learn more about the Short Seller’s/Mining Stock Journals, click on either link (note, subscribers to both Journals receive 50% off on the second Journal):
SHORT SELLER’S JOURNAL / MINING STOCK JOURNAL
Greatest Stock Bubble In History
Anyone who can’t see a dangerous bubble should not be managing, analyzing or trading stocks. It’s at moments like these that really show who the best investors are. Of course, there are lots of resources like eToro available for investors that will help getting through this period easier. If you’re an investor but haven’t looked into eToro yet then we recommend it’s something you do. Take a look on https://mininvestering.dk/etoro/ and see what benefits it can have for your trading ability because you’re going to need all the help you can get planning for short and long-term investments at the moment. We all know that stock trading is a risky game but if you can get through this then you’ll be in a good position on the other side. Even Hellen Keller could figure out what is going here:
It’s not easy shorting the market right now – for now – but there have been plenty of short-term opportunities to “scalp” stocks using short term puts. I cover both short term trading ideas and long term positioning ideas. You can learn more about this newsletter here: Short Seller’s Journal information.
“SSJ provides outstanding practical advice for translating a company’s bottom line fundamentals into $$’s. Whether you’re a buy and hold long term investor or short term trader (or both), you’ll find all kinds of helpful advice on portfolio management, asset allocation and short term/long term options strategies. Really can’t recommend SSJ enough! Thanks Dave for your great service!” – subscriber “John”
WTF Just Happened: Gold & Silver Drive-By Shooting Friday
After moving significantly higher on Wednesday and Thursday following the dovish monetary policy issued by both the Federal Reserve and the ECB, the precious metals were ambushed Friday morning by the Comex bank cartel. Right before the Comex gold pit opened on Friday, thousands of gold and silver contract were dumped wholesale into the Comex Globex computer trading system. The deluge continued for over an hour (click on image to enlarge):
The chart above is the July Comex paper silver. From 8-9 a.m. EST, 21,922 silver contract were dumped on the Comex. This represents 109.6 million ozs of silver – roughly 13% of the total amount of silver produced my silver mining annually. It also represents 40% of amount of physical silver allegedly held in Comex silver vaults as reported by the vault operators (primarily JP Morgan, HSBC and Brink’s). Friday was by far the largest volume day for the July contract going back to late April, when July became the “front-month” contract for silver. The same dynamic occurred in gold on Friday.
In the latest episode of “WTF Just Happened?” we discuss how and why the precious metals were smashed on Friday, as the Comex banks printed $10’s of millions in profits covering their enormous short positions in paper gold and silver ((WTF Just Happened is a produced in association with Wall St. For Main Street – Eric Dubin may be reached at Facebook.com/EricDubin):
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I recommended Arizona Mining in May 2016 at $1.26 to my Mining Stock Journal subscribers. It was acquired today for $1.3 billion, or $4.65/share. Visit these links to learn more about the Investment Research Dynamic’s Mining Stock Journal and Short Seller’s Journal.